List Mgmt. 2023 Trade Thread - Part I

[George]

 

[bird_man]

Jeez I wish I was an AFL journalist. Just disregard everything that doesn't suit your narrative, write a pile of crap and get paid for it!!!

Jay - you cannot dismiss our "drafting strategy" simply by not mentioning those players who we have drafted and are successful and by neglecting to mention players we have got through trading draft picks.

" From 2018-20, King is the one hit and Jack Bytel has shown promise despite injury issues. But to be blunt, St Kilda has paid a price for giving up on the draft as a club over that period."

So who else did we get in that period? Well lets add starting 22 types like Callum Wilkie, Dan Butler, Brad Hill, Dougal Howard, Zac Jones, Ryan Byrnes, Jack Higgins, Brad Crouch, Mason Wood to the list and that's without considering the likes of Connolly, Max Heath, Sharman, Highmore, Allison.

Well he did specifically say drafting strategy and out of that first group you named, Wilkie is the only player that was drafted (as a rookie).

Going hard at mature talent cost us at the draft, I think that is the point he is making there.

I know it’s hard to cop criticism, but nothing for that article seems like crap to me. I think in hindsight there are plenty of things we would do differently if we had our time again.

Trading out pick 6 in 2019 is something I wish we hadn’t done now that’s for sure.

 

[StCicatriz]

"its safe to say we havent been a destination club and for what ever reason some doors were shut"

very very interesting statement.

 

[jh38]

And yet we spent 3 seasons loving Paddy.

A ruck who showed how valuable a “good ruck” is.

Our midfield was still terrible even though we had 2 of the top 10 rucks in the competition at one point. Paddy was also there to mentor Marshall.

 

[StCicatriz]

The salary cap was full-to-the-brim and there was nowhere near enough top-end or promising young developing talent to challenge for a top-four berth.
So, after winning only three of their last 11 games last year, the Saints’ powerbrokers went to the freezer, reached for the tub of Neapolitan ice cream and realised there was only strawberry flavour left.

some of us had been saying this but every god damn ****in year we think we have a war chest.

its painfully obvious we went out, took cash to market and came back with hanners, hill, ryder, howard, butler and jones. then we did things like took billings for another 4 years at 600k.

we were full. there was no more wiggle room.

the list strategy under lethers which gags employed was clearly to spend up, bring in existing talent and have a real crack at it. it hasn't worked.

now they're going down the path of rebuilding it again. which will mean trying to free up cap space to bring other ready many talent in whilst trying to hit the draft hard.

they'll rebuild around King.

 

[gringo2011]

All I have to say about RTB/SoS/Gubby is…

They'd better not **** it up. We can't afford another decade of bad decisions. Toce should be on the shortest leash of anyone. Most of the damage is Trout's selections and Pelican's strategy. We can't let that stuff slide this time.

Pretty depressing that it's realistically going to be another rebuild. Must be the fourth in a row with one outlier year in the weirdest season of footy outside war time.

 

[gringo2011]

Our midfield was still terrible even though we had 2 of the top 10 rucks in the competition at one point. Paddy was also there to mentor Marshall.

Our midfield was pretty good to be honest until Steele went down and we didn't have Dunstan or Bytel ready as depth. Probably cost us finals and Ratts his job. Forward structure was amateurish and the slow ball movement was against what every other club was doing and didn't even suit our list.

 

[StCicatriz]

"as the club is yet to establish itself as a true destination club for the top-end talent."

this is 100% true but it's also a case where you can't be that unless you are consistently playing finals and challenging. so we wont get that until we start drafting and developing elite talent. if we get a couple of elite players who drive us up the ladder we will be in the discussion for grabbing top end talent.

i mean take geelong. i dont think they get dangerfield if they not winning flags and playing finals from their existing group of ablett, bartel, hawkins, selwood etc.

 

[puppy_dog7]

I believe elite midfielders are a much more pressing need than a player like TDK. If we are to spend early trade picks on a player, use them on a sound proven young elite midfielder.

For me TDK is completely the wrong way to go trade wise! He is a good player but not worth it would cost us in $$$ or trade. He is another like Marshall who plays his best footy in the ruck and not as a forward, what's the point in having two very similiar players. On top of what we would have to pay him and what Carlton would want trade wise would be outrageous. I think we would be much better served targetting players who are tall forwards firstly, but competent ruckman. Players like Joel Armatey, Hayden McLean, Elliott Himmilberg or Ratogulea or similiar.

The above are all players who have talent but are behind others and we wouldnt have to give up as much trade wise. Plus what we have seen from Max Heath over the preseason indicates that he is not that far away and has shown in the VFL that he is handy when playing forward. I hope they keep Campbell on the list for another year or two as a backup and target another ruckman via the draft or in a cheap trade.

If the media story is correct Sydney are keen on TDK also, if that is the case we would get one or both Amartey and McLean cheaply. Let them pay the big $$$ for him as now is not the time to go chips all in on a could be ruckman/forward.

First of all I wouldn't be surprised if they got TDK in to play as a KPD like his brother. Don't forget he's still only 23, so he's still finding his feet as an AFL player.

Secondly, Heath is still a fair way off it. I wouldn't be expecting too much from him in the next 2-3 years.

I don't mind the idea of McLean, I was one advocating us going after him last year.

 

[gringo2011]

"as the club is yet to establish itself as a true destination club for the top-end talent."

this is 100% true but it's also a case where you can't be that unless you are consistently playing finals and challenging. so we wont get that until we start drafting and developing elite talent. if we get a couple of elite players who drive us up the ladder we will be in the discussion for grabbing top end talent.

i mean take geelong. i dont think they get dangerfield if they not winning flags and playing finals from their existing group of ablett, bartel, hawkins, selwood etc.

Yeah, really is a case of making your own luck. We have done all the dumb things possible and are wearing the consequence. The club thought it couldn't afford to do another rebuild and ended up back where they started with nothing to show for it. If you try to bring in talent when you are at the bottom you get the guys that go for the wrong reasons and pay overs. If you have done the bulk work at the draft you can create momentum and players want in.

 

[StCicatriz]

How is our cap at bursting point when we were throwing $850k+ at DeGoey?... and are apparently now happy to chuck the kitchen sink at TDK?

FMD, some of these journos are total dipsh1ts.

because they are long term deals. essentially the same deal as buddy. where buddy starts off on 400k a year but ends up on 1.5m in his final year.

the problem with this is some players might not like taking a pay cut in their 1-3 years.

reality is any club and can afford any players. given they can just put em on long term deals. the problem is trying to smooth it in the short term and also making your club as appealing a possible.

we dont appeal.

 

[puppy_dog7]

Our midfield was pretty good to be honest until Steele went down and we didn't have Dunstan or Bytel ready as depth. Probably cost us finals and Ratts his job. Forward structure was amateurish and the slow ball movement was against what every other club was doing and didn't even suit our list.

Gresham's injury hurt as well. He was our best clearance player before he went down with injury. He was also kicking goals as well.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Well he did specifically say drafting strategy and out of that first group you named, Wilkie is the only player that was drafted (as a rookie).

Going hard at mature talent cost us at the draft, I think that is the point he is making there.

I know it’s hard to cop criticism, but nothing for that article seems like crap to me. I think in hindsight there are plenty of things we would do differently if we had our time again.

Trading out pick 6 in 2019 is something I wish we hadn’t done now that’s for sure.

No he is simply supporting his argument by providing only one side of the coin.

He cannot be critical of our "drafting strategy" (trading picks to get in mature players to fill the gap we had before concentrating on the draft) without actually providing evidence how his supposedly superior "drafting strategy" (not trading draft picks at all) would have made us a better team.

I'm constantly reminded of a lesson I learnt years and years ago when, early on in an advising role, I put an opinion to a Govt Minister and got the response in big bold red letters

"JUSTIFY THAT ASSERTION"

 

[StCicatriz]

Yeah, really is a case of making your own luck. We have done all the dumb things possible and are wearing the consequence. The club thought it couldn't afford to do another rebuild and ended up back where they started with nothing to show for it. If you try to bring in talent when you are at the bottom you get the guys that go for the wrong reasons and pay overs. If you have done the bulk work at the draft you can create momentum and players want in.

100%

and theyve gone down that path because they never fixed the recruitment and development. there's literally no point selling off all your assets and going down the path of a complete rebuild, when the people who will do that rebuild are some laborers passing themselves off as tradies. no wonder the ****in house fell down.

its just incredibly reckless. you're basically booting out long time servants of the club, retiring them etc. so you can reposition the cap and go down a full rebuild. but you never actually address or fix the list management team. so you're inflicting this damage with no real mechanism to really rebuild. easy to smash the house down... harder to rebuild it... people get pissed when there's no house to live in still after 12 years!

we should be absolutely filthy on that. thats absolutely horrendous by those in charge.

 

[StCicatriz]

No he is simply supporting his argument by providing only one side of the coin.

He cannot be critical of our "drafting strategy" (trading picks to get in mature players to fill the gap we had before concentrating on the draft) without actually providing evidence how his supposedly superior "drafting strategy" (not trading draft picks at all) would have made us a better team.

I'm constantly reminded of a lesson I learnt years and years ago when, early on in an advising role, I put an opinion to a Govt Minister and got the response in big bold red letters

"JUSTIFY THAT ASSERTION"

the problem they've highlighted although kind of in a very subtle way, is that the drafting wasn't up to scratch which led us to the influx of mature age talent.

we also burnt alot of 2nd round picks on talent prior to the great super coach era under gags

some of them were very obvious **** ups at the time.

for example Petracca. you can't tell me we wouldn't be a completely different side with Petracca along side Steele. or Bolton over Long, another obvious one on the night.

 

[bird_man]

No he is simply supporting his argument by providing only one side of the coin.

He cannot be critical of our "drafting strategy" (trading picks to get in mature players to fill the gap we had before concentrating on the draft) without actually providing evidence how his supposedly superior "drafting strategy" (not trading draft picks at all) would have made us a better team.

I'm constantly reminded of a lesson I learnt years and years ago when, early on in an advising role, I put an opinion to a Govt Minister and got the response in big bold red letters

"JUSTIFY THAT ASSERTION"

Yeah ok.

He did touch on all the recycled and mature players we chose to bring in at that time which obviously cost us the opportunity to take kids in those drafts in the next paragraph.

What else would you have like him to do? Show every pick we should have kept and each 18 year old we should have taken with that pick?

Not sure why people get so mad when journos point out the obvious mistakes we have made. I just hope we learn from them.

 

[gringo2011]

Gresham's injury hurt as well. He was our best clearance player before he went down with injury. He was also kicking goals as well.

Lead us in things like inside 50s, score involvements and stuff before he went down too.

 

[gringo2011]

No he is simply supporting his argument by providing only one side of the coin.

He cannot be critical of our "drafting strategy" (trading picks to get in mature players to fill the gap we had before concentrating on the draft) without actually providing evidence how his supposedly superior "drafting strategy" (not trading draft picks at all) would have made us a better team.

I'm constantly reminded of a lesson I learnt years and years ago when, early on in an advising role, I put an opinion to a Govt Minister and got the response in big bold red letters

"JUSTIFY THAT ASSERTION"

I'm pretty sure they are saying that if we'd drafted instead of topping up that we'd be in a different position. Not hard to see the clubs that went down that path instead getting different results. Brisbane jumped us, Carlton, Dogs and Pies rebuilt played in GFs and then rebuilt again while we were still in first gear, both already jumped us again.

We have been bullshitting it for so long that we are all conditioned to accept it.

 

[StCicatriz]

the scary thing is, if you don't rate the combo of Gubby/SOS & Toche, you're just watching history repeat itself from the Pelchen/Trout/Ameet/Libba or Lethers/Gags/Libba era.

unless we fix the core of the issue which is the actual recruitment, we aint going anywhere. doesn't matter how much cap space or draft picks we have.

next step which you'd hope you do in parrallel given they'll end up there the moment they're drafted, is the actual development. the players development team and the footy dept.

my worry is the recruitment again is an after thought and all the focus is going into the senior side and its coaching rather than the pipeline that will feed into the senior side.

so we'll just burn out Ross... then work out the list is still ****ed... replace SOS/Gubby/Toche with the next round of failed master builders and watch history repeat for the 4th time.

do you think we have another 12 years of this cycle in us? membership and sponsorship is high... but for how long if you continually end up sacking people/bringing new people in/still not consistently playing finals?

 

[Oh When the Saints]

the scary thing is, if you don't rate the combo of Gubby/SOS & Toche, you're just watching history repeat itself from the Pelchen/Trout/Ameet/Libba or Lethers/Gags/Libba era.

unless we fix the core of the issue which is the actual recruitment, we aint going anywhere. doesn't matter how much cap space or draft picks we have.

next step which you'd hope you do in parrallel given they'll end up there the moment they're drafted, is the actual development. the players development team and the footy dept.

my worry is the recruitment again is an after thought and all the focus is going into the senior side and its coaching rather than the pipeline that will feed into the senior side.

so we'll just burn out Ross... then work out the list is still ****ed... replace SOS/Gubby/Toche with the next round of failed master builders and watch history repeat for the 4th time.

do you think we have another 12 years of this cycle in us? membership and sponsorship is high... but for how long if you continually end up sacking people/bringing new people in/still not consistently playing finals?

The Damien Carroll appointment at the start of 2022 suggested to me that we knew development needed resources and expertise. He is held in high regard across the AFL and RTB mentioned him specifically when he got the gig. So far the progress of Windy, Owens and NWM suggests that Carroll is doing ok.

The recruiting is critical. Toce seems to have done ok in the most recent draft and certainly with the SA boys prior to that. But I agree the pressure stays on him to continue performing.

The only way you win premierships is to find a few A-graders from the draft. We have one in King and hopefully another soon from Windy/Mattaes. We need a couple more. King will peak across the next 2-5 seasons so the next two drafts are absolutely critical.

 

[SaintsofSteel]

I’d argue quality talls are really important to what we need.

TDK has attributes we lack. Ready to hit his prime. Young athletic - complements Marshall.

A gun key back now and we can work through the exits and see what they might turn into.

Owens Windy Pou look like a potentially elite group of young mids.

We obviously need another key tall forward but TDK is not the answer. What has TDK done to warrant the hype = zero. People are seeing his couple of spectacular marks and/or his brothers feats and believe Tom will become a super star. Well Im suggesting there are other far cheaper options out there that are as capable as TDK forward. Im suggesting we dont sell the farm on TDK he is not an elite forward or ruckman there are other options.

Chris TOCE has done and excellent job in the last 2 years. Im suggesting we stay the course and use high end draft choices and elite kids - when will this club learn FFS!

 

[Dard Ball Get]

when will this club learn FFS!

Well you may have heard Ross quip “Not only Tom.”
Nothing has happened yet, it’s March ffs.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Yeah ok.

He did touch on all the recycled and mature players we chose to bring in at that time which obviously cost us the opportunity to take kids in those drafts in the next paragraph.

What else would you have like him to do? Show every pick we should have kept and each 18 year old we should have taken with that pick?

Not sure why people get so mad when journos point out the obvious mistakes we have made. I just hope we learn from them.

Of course I can call him out. Its substandard journalism (unfortunately its the accepted standard)

Until he does what you've highlighted and we can clearly see the so called "mistakes" we've supposed to have made, then its a nonsense piece.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Well he did specifically say drafting strategy and out of that first group you named, Wilkie is the only player that was drafted (as a rookie).

Going hard at mature talent cost us at the draft, I think that is the point he is making there.

I know it’s hard to cop criticism, but nothing for that article seems like crap to me. I think in hindsight there are plenty of things we would do differently if we had our time again.

Trading out pick 6 in 2019 is something I wish we hadn’t done now that’s for sure.

Pick 6 2019 - Fischer McAsey - not sure if that a great example to quote.

 

[SaintsofSteel]

Well you may have heard Ross quip “Not only Tom.”
Nothing has happened yet, it’s March ffs.

When do you suggest most trade deals get started - in trade week? Yeah its March but clubs approach players sometimes years before they come out of contract, how do you think Geelong attracted Bowes. They had inside running on GCS TPP knew Bowes was a heavily back ended contract and targetted him a long way out. It goes without saying we have other options, but I am just concerned with our history we will over rate what TDK will bring. I hope you are right, but you may have also heard Ross quip "we are not seen as a destination club". Hopefully we target others, as they mentioned in the HS - Harry Himmilberg is a FA this year, but if we lose Gresham as a FA will would have to trade for him.

I understand its media speculaton, but where there's smoke there is fire. We finally have an excellent person in charge of recuiting in Chris TOCE, and now we are 'supposedly' looking to trade out our early selections? Silvagni & Allan might be just pressuring Carlton's cap, with an eye elsewhere I very much hope that is the case.

 

[AirWinmar]

Our recruitment hasn't been great over the years obviously, but our coaching and development has also been no good. This year we will want to see how the players and team go - "exploration". Then I think they will assess needs and who will get cut. For me I think it's going to be really interesting to see how the players go with a better system and development team around them. We may find that we have more than we think - but I think that's why Lyon and co have been brought in - to find out where we're at with good systems and footy department.

Of course at this rate we may not be able to get half our players on the park for long enough to find out