List Mgmt. 2023 Trade Thread - Part I

[George]

 

[bird_man]

Pick 6 2019 - Fischer McAsey - not sure if that a great example to quote.

Who said Liberatore and Toce were going to pick Fischer McAsey? Because Adelaide did?

Of course I can call him out. Its substandard journalism (unfortunately its the accepted standard)

Until he does what you've highlighted and we can clearly see the so called "mistakes" we've supposed to have made, then its a nonsense piece.

The mistakes are shown in the article as I said. He listed all the mature players we brought into the club over that 3 period and then listed the once good young draftee we’ve had in that time.

And here we are now, with a list that has got us nowhere in that time.

Seems to me as though he’s just pointing out the obvious.

 

[gringo2011]

Pick 6 2019 - Fischer McAsey - not sure if that a great example to quote.

Assuming we take exactly that player just because that's where he was taken. Apparently we were very keen on Cody Weightman and probably would have had to trade down to not waste such a high pick on him. Ash who went before our pick, Young and Flanders I heard we were keen on too.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

because they are long term deals. essentially the same deal as buddy. where buddy starts off on 400k a year but ends up on 1.5m in his final year.

the problem with this is some players might not like taking a pay cut in their 1-3 years.

reality is any club and can afford any players. given they can just put em on long term deals. the problem is trying to smooth it in the short term and also making your club as appealing a possible.

we dont appeal.

We front loaded the hell out of plenty of deals. Money is moved around once offers are declined. Sometimes guys are overpaid as a result.

Typical that yet another hit piece by a flog journo brings out the usual Harry Hindsights.

Fact is, we traded out of one draft (2019) which brought in 4 best 22 players.

We made poor choices or choices that have been smashed with injury in plenty of other drafts.

Saying we ignored the draft just flies in the face of reality.

I've said it a million times but we're still paying for Trout's conservative drafting and the intro of the franchises. That had the flow on effect that saw the decision to bring in experienced players that is now being widely criticised.

 

[bird_man]

Assuming we take exactly that player just because that's where he was taken. Apparently we were very keen on Cody Weightman and probably would have had to trade down to not waste such a high pick on him. Ash who went before our pick, Young and Flanders I heard we were keen on too.

There was plenty of talk around Caleb Serong that year

 

[gringo2011]

When do you suggest most trade deals get started - in trade week? Yeah its March but clubs approach players sometimes years before they come out of contract, how do you think Geelong attracted Bowes. They had inside running on GCS TPP knew Bowes was a heavily back ended contract and targetted him a long way out. It goes without saying we have other options, but I am just concerned with our history we will over rate what TDK will bring. I hope you are right, but you may have also heard Ross quip "we are not seen as a destination club". Hopefully we target others, as they mentioned in the HS - Harry Himmilberg is a FA this year, but if we lose Gresham as a FA will would have to trade for him.

I understand its media speculaton, but where there's smoke there are fire. We finally have an excellent person in charge of recuiting in Chris TOCE, and now we are 'supposedly' looking to trade out our early selections? Silvagni & Allan might be just pressuring Carlton's cap, with an eye elsewhere I very much hope that is the case.

Not sure we can call Toce excellent yet. The academy kids picked themselves and if NAS wants out then it is probably a stuff up even though the talent looks like it's there. This year looks like a good haul but we really won't know for 4 or 5 years. If we get one A grader out of the whole lot it will be as much as we have achieved in about 10 years of drafting so he's got a low bar set.

 

[gringo2011]

We front loaded the hell out of plenty of deals. Money is moved around once offers are declined. Sometimes guys are overpaid as a result.

Typical that yet another hit piece by a flog journo brings out the usual Harry Hindsights.

Fact is, we traded out of one draft (2019) which brought in 4 best 22 players.

We made poor choices or choices that have been smashed with injury in plenty of other drafts.

Saying we ignored the draft just flies in the face of reality.

I've said it a million times but we're still paying for Trout's conservative drafting and the intro of the franchises. That had the flow on effect that saw the decision to bring in experienced players that is now being widely criticised.

We were always chasing players instead of doing the hard yards. Freeman, Logan Austin, Hill, Carlisle and a lot of others were misreads or missteps. We had some hits too, Membrey and Steele were good gets but you can't ignore the draft. A lot of our issues were not understanding where the list was at and trying to top up to play finals. Essendon are guilty of it too.

We are paying for Trout and Pelican for sure but we've had a few years to make up for it and we still look a bit confused.

 

[gringo2011]

There was plenty of talk around Caleb Serong that year

I think he looked the best available of what was left.

 

[gringo2011]

We were always chasing players instead of doing the hard yards. Freeman, Logan Austin, Hill, Carlisle and a lot of others were misreads or missteps. We had some hits too, Membrey and Steele were good gets but you can't ignore the draft. A lot of our issues were not understanding where the list was at and trying to top up to play finals. Essendon are guilty of it too.

We are paying for Trout and Pelican for sure but we've had a few years to make up for it and we still look a bit confused.

That draft actually had some of the better players late in the draft. Chad Warner, Ralphsmith and Cumberland look like they'll be guns. Harrison Jones and Jeremy Sharp went late second round even. That's the danger of top ups, you miss out on the lottery of the Jack Steven type. Richmond can top up with established players now because they went hard at the draft and got a lot right.

 

[bird_man]

We front loaded the hell out of plenty of deals. Money is moved around once offers are declined. Sometimes guys are overpaid as a result.

Typical that yet another hit piece by a flog journo brings out the usual Harry Hindsights.

Fact is, we traded out of one draft (2019) which brought in 4 best 22 players.

We made poor choices or choices that have been smashed with injury in plenty of other drafts.

Saying we ignored the draft just flies in the face of reality.

I've said it a million times but we're still paying for Trout's conservative drafting and the intro of the franchises. That had the flow on effect that saw the decision to bring in experienced players that is now being widely criticised.

Two draft picks in the top 40 in the space of three years wasn’t it?

I mean the AFL rules mean that no club can ignore that draft entirely but we did a pretty good job at getting close to it.

 

[MordySaint]

I've said it a million times but we're still paying for Trout's conservative drafting and the intro of the franchises. That had the flow on effect that saw the decision to bring in experienced players that is now being widely criticised.

2014 still costing us today. Melbourne reaped our inability to see beyond our noses.

Dmac the last of that crew, and he looks to be on his last leg now.... literally

 

[StCicatriz]

We front loaded the hell out of plenty of deals. Money is moved around once offers are declined. Sometimes guys are overpaid as a result.

Typical that yet another hit piece by a flog journo brings out the usual Harry Hindsights.

Fact is, we traded out of one draft (2019) which brought in 4 best 22 players.

We made poor choices or choices that have been smashed with injury in plenty of other drafts.

Saying we ignored the draft just flies in the face of reality.

I've said it a million times but we're still paying for Trout's conservative drafting and the intro of the franchises. That had the flow on effect that saw the decision to bring in experienced players that is now being widely criticised.

the president of the club has said we had ignored the draft for short term fixes.

like i dont know how you are arguing against this. its literally what happened.

 

[hangdog]

Demographics are overrated, if you end up with a plethora of 18 -20 year olds who are better than your 23-24 year olds, you don't need the 23-24 year olds

Try telling that to China!

 

[ScrappyDo]

Some list managers reach for the small scissors at season’s end.
Others opt for the full-length hedge trimmers.
New St Kilda list boss Stephen Silvagni will be thinking about the chainsaw.
When the Saints made the shock decision to punt coach Brett Ratten last year, there was a not-so-subtle acknowledgment that the club’s list was stuck in no-man’s land.
The salary cap was full-to-the-brim and there was nowhere near enough top-end or promising young developing talent to challenge for a top-four berth.
So, after winning only three of their last 11 games last year, the Saints’ powerbrokers went to the freezer, reached for the tub of Neapolitan ice cream and realised there was only strawberry flavour left.
That is not to say there aren’t a lot of capable players at Moorabbin. There are.
The thing about the Saints’ list is that more than 30-odd players could play next week and be fine.
But that is the approach which has elevated the club from 16th in 2018 to only 10th under Ratten in 2022.
They won one final in that time (over Western Bulldogs in 2020 despite having two less scoring shots than the Dogs), before it dawned on the club last season.
It has a mediocre list.
The very deliberate top-up strategy had not worked.

Stephen Silvagni is facing some huge decisions at St Kilda. Picture: AAP Images
President Andrew Bassat said it himself in the club’s review findings when he declared St Kilda was guilty of “focusing impatiently on short-term outputs”.
Now, the question is not whether St Kilda needs to make changes.
The question is how hard do they go?
Does Silvagni bust out the chainsaw or not in six months’ time?
One of the club’s most respected figures, Nick Riewoldt, was forthright last year after participating in the club review, saying he would be “cutting and cutting pretty hard.”
“When you look at the young talent who are gonna form the elite core of this club for the next five to 10 years, there isn’t much there,” Riewoldt said.
Bassat said the club had to commit to a longer-term vision under Lyon “even if this does make the short-term more difficult for us”.
“We do need to improve our stock of top-end talent,” Bassat said.
Complicating matters, it is a considerably tough time to rebuild when the top-four teams have all got better entering 2023, leaving a decent-sized gap between the two ends of the ladder.
Geelong, Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs and Carlton all improved, at least on paper.
But the problems are two-fold for St Kilda.
Not only is there is a distinct lack of top-end talent, but the salary cap is also fuller than what it should be for a team which missed finals last year and is now in an ‘exploration phase’ under Lyon.


Ross Lyon is set to bring a hard edge to St Kilda. Picture: Getty Images
There are too many mid-tier players on above average money.
When they brought in wave after wave of mature-age players in recent years the Saints had to overpay in some cases, as the club is yet to establish itself as a true destination club for the top-end talent.
And perhaps the club thought it was closer to a premiership than reality would suggest?
The Saints have always been goers under Ratten, but where is the class? The firepower? The difference-makers?
The previous list management strategy “to drive greater competitiveness through trades” lifted the club out of the bottom-four in 2018, but has now officially made way for an “updated plan” amid sweeping personnel change through the football department.
Unless Lyon can work some sort of miracle on the field, the list will need a considerable recalibration at the end of the year to re-align the cap, inject some more A-Graders and build on a new core to help break the longest premiership drought in the game.
But that is four or five years away.

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CRUNCH YEAR
That is why Silvagni and Lyon will take the season to make key decisions on which players not only take the club forward on the field at a justifiable price, but also who can help drive standards off the field.
Over the next six months in the club’s 150th season, some tough calls will have to be made by Silvagni. Who can take this success-starved club forward?
There are some quality pieces to work with, and Marcus Windhager, Mitch Owens, Mattaes Phillipou, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Max King represent the next generation of Saints’ stars to help take the baton from Jack Billings, Seb Ross, Jimmy Webster, Daniel McKenzie and Co.
Billings, who was taken pick three ahead of Marcus Bontempelli in 2013, is entering his 10th season and has likely played his best football, finishing fourth (2019) and fifth (2017) in the best and fairest.
The Saints delisted number one pick Paddy McCartin amid his concussion issues after just 35 games, but he has since established himself as an All-Australian-calibre defender as part of a remarkable career revival at Sydney Swans.
Hard-nut utility Hunter Clark can deliver on his potential, linebreaker Wanganeen-Milera is the best kick at the club, and rookie picks Rowan Marshall and Jack Sinclair are crucial cornerstones.
Lyon will love Brad Crouch’s unwavering effort in the clinches and Jack Higgins and Dan Butler will have big roles to play cranking up the pressure in a small forward line early in 2023.
The captain Jack Steele is a dual All-Australian, and the heartbeat of the team. Jade Gresham provides power and polish in the engine room, and is always threatening forward, but St Kilda may have to fight hard to keep him as a free agent.


Paddy McCartin didn’t work out for the Saints. Picture: AAP Images
If Kysaiah Pickett shocks Melbourne with a trade request, (and the Demons aren’t expecting one) Gresham would be an ideal replacement target for the Dees.
So, there are some building blocks at Moorabbin, and Phillipou was open with recruiters last year about how he wants to become the best player in the game.
Essendon thought long and hard about taking him at pick five over Elijah Tsatas.
It will be a compelling journey, and Phillipou can produce some spine-tingling footy busting through packs midfield and forward.
But beyond the 2021-2022 draft hauls, there is a big black hole.
From 2018-20, King is the one hit and Jack Bytel has shown promise despite injury issues.
But to be blunt, St Kilda has paid a price for giving up on the draft as a club over that period.
It is unfair to pin that just on previous list boss James Gallagher, but rather everyone at the club who makes decisions in helping set the Saints’ direction.
Ultimately, the trajectory flat lined when Ratten was sacked with two years left on his contract after 11 wins in his final season in charge.
The Saints had made a mistake extending his contract in the first place, but the Saints identified in the review they needed a different style of leadership from its new coach. An uncompromising edge.
In 2017, they took hard nut Clark (pick seven) and rebounding defender Nick Coffield (eight) and the club is hopeful they can develop into top-line playmakers.
But the Saints considered trading Clark last year and Coffield is coming off a knee reconstruction. It is a big year for duo. A big year for a lot of players.
In 2018, the recycling trucks fired up as the club picked up Matthew Parker, Nick Hind, Hannebery, Robbie Young, Dean Kent, Ryan Abbott, Brad Hill, Howard, Ryder, Butler, Zak Jones, Tom Highmore, James Frawley, Shaun McKernan, Crouch and Higgins.
Ryder was excellent and among the most impactful ruckmen in the game at the Saints and Mason Wood has been a nice find, for free.
But nine of the 17 are gone and Hannebery and Hill cost the club a packet. North fought hard for Howard at the time, driving up his price.
It is unclear whether Jones is still in the Saints’ best 22.


Dan Hannebery struggled with fitness while at the Saints. Picture: Getty Images
TICK, TOCK
Chris Toce is not a household name, but the Saints’ recruiting manager has one of the biggest jobs in footy making sure the club nails its picks in the next few drafts.
That is how St Kilda can replenish the list and begin the upward climb, but it will require patience over the next few years.
The club will wonder which of its players who aren’t in its future plans will have any trade currency, and Silvagni will be ears open to any attractive offers at season’s end to help build their draft hand.
Is that Clark, Coffield, Billings or Ross?
Perhaps, North Melbourne is the best comparison when it cut 11 players in one swoop after winning only three games in 2020.
North Melbourne had the chance in 2018 to accelerate the rebuild but instead they went for a top-up method, too, which also backfired, adding Dom Tyson, Jared Polec and Jasper Pittard.
Brad Scott finished up as coach the following year.
At St Kilda in 2019, the club gave up picks 12 and 18 for Howard, Ryder and pick 10 in return. But 10 went to Fremantle for Brad Hill.
It means the Saints missed out on their chance to take young stars such as Pickett (pick 12), Will Day (13), Cody Weightman (15), Mitch Georgiades (18) and Sam De Koning (19), but it is easy in hindsight.
Higgins and Hannebery (who played 18 games in four years) effectively cost second-rounders.

The Saints will listen to any offers for Jack Billings. Picture: Getty Images
THIS DRAFT
St Kilda will start the season without an established key forward in Round 1, after taking 19-year-old Anthony Caminiti under the supplemental selection period rules.
The Saints are among the long line of clubs assessing Carlton key forward-ruck Tom De Koning.
The gun tall is out of contract but he is not a free agent, meaning the Saints will have to give up something in a trade to land him, unless there is a Jack Martin-style pre-season draft move in mind.
Silvagni drafted De Koning to Carlton at pick 30 in 2017, but would be reluctant to give up an early single-figure pick for De Koning if the Saints finished in the bottom-four.
Gold Coast prodigy Ben King has long been on Graeme Allan’s wish-list, but the Suns would want the world in return if he ever requested a trade.
Allan remains at the club as strategy consultant. He is Silvagni’s right-hand man.
But for now, King says he is happy up north.
Preferably, the Saints will want to keep their early picks in this year and next year’s draft to build-out that nucleus of younger talent.
In 2016-17, Lyon’s rebuilding Dockers took Griffin Logue (pick eight), Sean Darcy (38), Brennan Cox (41) and Luke Ryan (66), followed by Andrew Brayshaw (two) and Adam Cerra (five), who was turned into key forward Jye Amiss (pick eight) when he moved to Carlton.
Two strong drafts helped turn the Dockers’ fortunes around.
But this is where free agency can also help the Saints attract some more top-liners such as GWS Giants’ tall Harry Himmelberg, without giving up a draft pick in a trade. Can he become star of the game?
The Saints have enough role players.
What they need as part of this fresh start under Lyon is more A-Graders.

Terrible article

 

[The Punter]

That draft actually had some of the better players late in the draft. Chad Warner, Ralphsmith and Cumberland look like they'll be guns. Harrison Jones and Jeremy Sharp went late second round even. That's the danger of top ups, you miss out on the lottery of the Jack Steven type. Richmond can top up with established players now because they went hard at the draft and got a lot right.

I'm almost at the point where Richmond can be put with Geelong and Sydney - no point saying we would have been better with who they drafted, because they develop whomever into champions.

The problem with going to the draft is while it might be the best way (or the only way) to win a premiership, that doesn't mean it works every time someone goes to the draft. With the club in an persistent ongoing medium-term existential crisis, that is a tough needle to thread.

BTW, will anyone on here have the cajones before the fact to describe signing Tom De Koning as topping up?

 

[MordySaint]

Terrible article

Laying it all out for everyone to see.

Must read BF

 

[gringo2011]

I'm almost at the point where Richmond can be put with Geelong and Sydney - no point saying we would have been better with who they drafted, because they develop whomever into champions.

The problem with going to the draft is while it might be the best way (or the only way) to win a premiership, that doesn't mean it works every time someone goes to the draft. With the club in an persistent ongoing medium-term existential crisis, that is a tough needle to thread.

BTW, will anyone on here have the cajones before the fact to describe signing Tom De Koning as topping up?

De Koning looks confused. 2 x FRD picks when you are rebuilding is a weird step for a player not yet star quality.

 

[stavro#4]

De Koning looks confused. 2 x FRD picks when you are rebuilding is a weird step for a player not yet star quality.

he will cost 1 x FRP

 

[StCicatriz]

i honestly think theres something to freo's approach... albeit it not through their intention.

take cerra and weller. i dont think either will be a star. i think there's merit in recycling that top pick early if you dont think they will be a star. i think its easy to find solid players and we've demonstrated our ability to do that.

i think what we need to do, is recycle those top picks if they aint showing signs of being utterly elite.

so for example someone like hunter clark

11

Hunter Clark

Age

26

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.9

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

. i'd churn him. should have churned billings. i think we should have been smarter in our assessment of blake acres

13

Blake Acres

Age

30

Ht

193cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

8.6

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.9

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

7.7

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.0

3star

D

8.2

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.4

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.8

4star

and luke dunstan

27

Luke Dunstan

Age

30

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.6

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

9.0

5star

CL

2.0

4star

D

18.2

5star

K

6.0

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

6.2

5star

CL

4.2

5star

and churned them earlier.

basically trying to get as many bites of the cherry as possible at the top end of the draft to truly find a competition leader.

 

[gringo2011]

he will cost 1 x FRP

You think? If he comes on a bit and with competition form other clubs I'd expect his value to go up not down. I'd rather draft more players and find a decent ruck on the cheap.

 

[gringo2011]

i honestly think theres something to freo's approach... albeit it not through their intention.

take cerra and weller. i dont think either will be a star. i think there's merit in recycling that top pick early if you dont think they will be a star. i think its easy to find solid players and we've demonstrated our ability to do that.

i think what we need to do, is recycle those top picks if they aint showing signs of being utterly elite.

so for example someone like hunter clark. i'd churn him. should have churned billings. i think we should have been smarter in our assessment of blake acres and luke dunstan and churned them earlier.

basically trying to get as many bites of the cherry as possible at the top end of the draft to truly find a competition leader.

Geelong have been pretty good at cutting their losses even with kids that they picked high in the draft. They are pretty brutal with their youth.

 

[stavro#4]

You think? If he comes on a bit and with competition form other clubs I'd expect his value to go up not down. I'd rather draft more players and find a decent ruck on the cheap.

2 is an absolute premium and they apparently can’t fit him in their cap.

Would have to be a real chance of PSD if Carlton make finals.

 

[gringo2011]

2 is an absolute premium and they apparently can’t fit him in their cap.

Would have to be a real chance of PSD if Carlton make finals.

Pretty rare for that to happen though. They won't want to lose him and you'd think other clubs will come calling. Geelong and Essendon types would be all over him.

 

[hayes]

he will cost 1 x FRP

This TDK stuff is almost making me want Gags back. First rounders for ruckman is the stuff of nightmares.

 

[The Punter]

i honestly think theres something to freo's approach... albeit it not through their intention.

take cerra and weller. i dont think either will be a star. i think there's merit in recycling that top pick early if you dont think they will be a star. i think its easy to find solid players and we've demonstrated our ability to do that.

i think what we need to do, is recycle those top picks if they aint showing signs of being utterly elite.

so for example someone like hunter clark. i'd churn him. should have churned billings. i think we should have been smarter in our assessment of blake acres and luke dunstan and churned them earlier.

basically trying to get as many bites of the cherry as possible at the top end of the draft to truly find a competition leader.

Geelong have been pretty good at cutting their losses even with kids that they picked high in the draft. They are pretty brutal with their youth.

Two issues with this strategy and example of it working:

• the blokes culled from Geelong get tagged with "can't get a game in front of <champion>, might flourish somewhere else"
• once you get tagged as the "always sells high and fleeces other teams in trades"... things become more difficult.

The only sustainable answer is development. Coach 'em up.

 

[ScrappyDo]

we dont appeal.

100%