List Mgmt. 2023 Trade Thread - Part II

[gringo2011]

My feeling is Owens goes in there a lot next year along with Windy. The problem is there's no guarantees. Dow will definitely help.

I can't see him being more than a part time mid until he's 23 or 24. Windhager looks the most ready for consistent midfield time. Maybe a bit of Phillipou phased in as well. I reckon Owens should model on DeGoey and get runs on ball and hopefully ends up a 70 mid 30 forward type in his mid 20s.

Relying on players under 25 usually doesn't translate to consistent footy so probably means a step back shorter term and there is some evidence that exposing kids too early can set them back not build them up.

 

[MordySaint]

You blokes need some cheering up.



Enjoy!!!

Richo was such a spud, that was good list still and he did * all with it. Incredible that all we have left from that side is Sinclair, Membrey, Billings and Gresham.

I remember when Richo was interviewed after that game. The commentators asked him how he got the team to play that well. He shrugged his shoulders and said he didn't know.

FFS ... Richo didn't even want the job at the start. Didn't even interview for it after we got rid of the Watters ... and we game him 7 years at the helm.

 

[gringo2011]

If Coff comes back any chance Stocker gets a go in the midfield - or is that wishful thinking?
He’s tough as and was initially drafted as a mid wasn’t he? Is like to see him get a go at least to have a look.

Not really. He was drafted as a mid. I think he'd work better inside too. Hs kicking is real hit and miss. Putting him further up the ground makes that less of an issue.

I really hope we pick up some fringe mids even to make Sandy competitive and have some break glass type depth. Maybe guys like Matho and Greenwood who would get more game time with us just as temporary depth until the kids develop.

 

[The Punter]

Richo was such a spud, that was good list still and he did * all with it. Incredible that all we have left from that side is Sinclair, Membrey, Billings and Gresham.

Ross is still at the club - he got 3 Brownlow votes that night playing on that year's Brownlow Medalist.

Six years is longer than you think.

 

[MordySaint]

Word is Hunter Clarke is in negotiations for a new contract.

I'm happy with that, the grass is not always greener on the other side.

He's got talent, happy to stick with him.

I'll never forget his commitment and courage.

‘Nothing but respect’: Luckless Saint a ‘real inspiration’ as pics reveal brutal result of ‘ugly’ clash

‘Nothing but respect’: Luckless Saint a ‘real inspiration’ as pics reveal brutal result of ‘ugly’ clash

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[kernelT]

That can't be true!! If anyone has watched tthe kid, and actually said that and meant it, then they lower the IQ of our crowd by virtue of their attendance and should immediately implement a self imposed ban on future attendance at our games!

He looks like a jet, but then so did Billings. We have a knack of ruining talent or shipping it off to improve elsewhere.

 

[gringo2011]

Ross is still at the club - he got 3 Brownlow votes that night playing on that year's Brownlow Medalist.

Six years is longer than you think.

I only watched the first few minutes and didn't notice him.

Collingwood have 13 left from 2017 and they are mostly top tier players. Grundy, Aish and Treloar are still quality at other clubs too. Keefe could end up with a flag this year as well. It is along time but our list turn over is quite extreme. We moved a lot of GOPs out to replace with GOPs.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Word is Hunter Clarke is in negotiations for a new contract.

I'm happy with that, the grass is not always greener on the other side.

He's got talent, happy to stick with him.

I'll never forget his commitment and courage.

‘Nothing but respect’: Luckless Saint a ‘real inspiration’ as pics reveal brutal result of ‘ugly’ clash

‘Nothing but respect’: Luckless Saint a ‘real inspiration’ as pics reveal brutal result of ‘ugly’ clash

www.foxsports.com.au

To me he's a bit like Farren Ray ( circumstance , not playing style ), when he came to the Saints.
Bulldogs were pissed off with him , because he wasn't the first round star draft pick they thought they were getting. But in reality he was a pretty handy player.

If we have enough good players that Clark doesn't get selected , well good.
But if we're down to some kid who will struggle to touch the ball 5 times, Its good to have Clark there.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

He looks like a jet, but then so did Billings. We have a knack of ruining talent or shipping it off to improve elsewhere.

Not always.
Carlton took Newnes and Goddard, both faded away.
Hawks took Minchington.
Long not getting much game time.
Hickey was always up and down.

 

[gringo2011]

He looks like a jet, but then so did Billings. We have a knack of ruining talent or shipping it off to improve elsewhere.

We seem to have system on here too. You get about three years to prove yourself and then you're mega spud and should be immediately delisted if you don't win a Brownlow. If you stand up for them you are an ignorant moron but while they have potential you are an awful person for even mentioning them in a vaguely negative light.

 

[kernelT]

Maybe we need Stevie Lawrence to come down and beat the absolute stuffing out of some of these young chaps in the boxing ring. I remember Dal saying that toughened him up pretty quickly, although Mich and Windy look like pretty tough campaigners already.

 

[gringo2011]

To me he's a bit like Farren Ray ( circumstance , not playing style ), when he came to the Saints.
Bulldogs were pissed off with him , because he wasn't the first round star draft pick they thought they were getting. But in reality he was a pretty handy player.

If we have enough good players that Clark doesn't get selected , well good.
But if we're down to some kid who will struggle to touch the ball 5 times, Its good to have Clark there.

There is an equation too. If you're not getting much back in a trade you might as well persist and delist in a couple of years if he doesn't make it. Some are just a bit slower to come on. Gresham, Howard and Clark all looked very good at different points of time and all are coming off their worst seasons. A third round pick in a shit draft is very unlikely to do anything but get a very low potential gamble. Chances of playing 100 games for a player taken after pick 30 drop away significantly.


This page has the graph that shows percentages of making 100 games in it and a pretty good analysis of how rare it is for a rookie to make it.

Round 20 – the “survival function” of AFL draftees, and Port’s makeshift ruck

Today we’re going show a simple “survival function” analysis, inspired by a query from Soccermetrics on Twitter who ran a similar analysis of MLS draft pick career tenures. Surviv…

hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com

 

[Yawkey way]

Not really. He was drafted as a mid. I think he'd work better inside too. Hs kicking is real hit and miss. Putting him further up the ground makes that less of an issue.

I really hope we pick up some fringe mids even to make Sandy competitive and have some break glass type depth. Maybe guys like Matho and Greenwood who would get more game time with us just as temporary depth until the kids develop.

Lyon would be good for a year, hard at it and at his age sandy isn’t too bad if we want to get games into kids. His old man played at sandy from memory and it’s his neck of the woods. Yeah Mathieson is way better than what we’ve had I could see him being a bit of a surprise to some, he can play good football at afl level imo.

 

[The Punter]

He looks like a jet, but then so did Billings. We have a knack of ruining talent or shipping it off to improve elsewhere.

The one is Acres, and we really didn't want to give him up, but he was a dealbreaker for Freo to get Hill. Then they gave him away three years later.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Talk about ruining your future.

My "favourite" mishap in drafting was AFL rising star Ameet Bains getting a plumb job at the Bulldogs then staying on at St Kilda to finish draft selections and decide our future.

Future 2nd round draft in exchange for unknown injured Port defender Logan Austin... who?

So it was Ameet doing the draft selections & not Trout?

Who was responsible for signing Skunk for nothing? Steele for a future 2nd? Trading a single 1st that brought in Coff, Battle & now Hotten?

Hard to keep up with who is to blame/give credit to.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Lethlean designed rebuilt this list and got promoted. The whole board who have approved every stupid decision all the way through have barely changed as well. Not sure that Sos is the greatest appointment and Gubby has been there for ages and must take responsibility for a lot of the trades that we've cocked up.

Lethlean arrived in 2018.

Most of what is being whined preceded his appointment.

I suppose you can disagree with turning pick 6 into 5 players who have been in best the 22 for extended periods since 2019 but that is very debatable IMO.

Hanners for a 2nd & pick downgrade was a fail.

What else?

Boards don’t approve list management decision outside of massive deals with significant TPP impact (like DeGoey) or controversial targets (like DeGoey).

Lethlean was against the biggest fk up of his time, the ridiculous extension of Ratts last year. That falls firmly in the lap of the former CEO.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

There is an equation too. If you're not getting much back in a trade you might as well persist and delist in a couple of years if he doesn't make it. Some are just a bit slower to come on. Gresham, Howard and Clark all looked very good at different points of time and all are coming off their worst seasons. A third round pick in a s**t draft is very unlikely to do anything but get a very low potential gamble. Chances of playing 100 games for a player taken after pick 30 drop away significantly.


This page has the graph that shows percentages of making 100 games in it and a pretty good analysis of how rare it is for a rookie to make it.

Round 20 – the “survival function” of AFL draftees, and Port’s makeshift ruck

Today we’re going show a simple “survival function” analysis, inspired by a query from Soccermetrics on Twitter who ran a similar analysis of MLS draft pick career tenures. Surviv…

hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com

There's some interesting stuff in there.
Like if a 50-60 pick makes it to 50 games, he seems more likely to get to 225 than those who were picked 40-50.

 

[Remboy]

Word is Hunter Clarke is in negotiations for a new contract.

I'm happy with that, the grass is not always greener on the other side.

He's got talent, happy to stick with him.

I'll never forget his commitment and courage.

‘Nothing but respect’: Luckless Saint a ‘real inspiration’ as pics reveal brutal result of ‘ugly’ clash

‘Nothing but respect’: Luckless Saint a ‘real inspiration’ as pics reveal brutal result of ‘ugly’ clash

www.foxsports.com.au

I remember his first game back from that and he was still going in head first. Say what you want about his fitness but you can't question his courage.

 

[SaintSlayer]

If Harrison Petty

35

Harrison Petty

Age

26

Ht

197cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

5.7

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

120.7

2star

No current season stats available

D

9.8

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

127.6

3star

- 23 yrs and 197cm is available for trade why wouldn't we chase him. A swing back/forward who proved he looked was very capable up forward.

 

[MordySaint]

So it was Ameet doing the draft selections & not Trout?

Who was responsible for signing Skunk for nothing? Steele for a future 2nd? Trading a single 1st that brought in Coff, Battle & now Hotten?

Hard to keep up with who is to blame/give credit to.

Saints congratulate Ameet Bains

St Kilda CEO Matt Finnis today offered his congratulations to Ameet Bains on his appointment as Western Bulldogs CEO.

www.saints.com.au

"Ameet has played an instrumental role in regenerating our playing list, leading our recruitment team and providing support and leadership within our football department."

Ameet and Trout were the dynamic duo.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

There is an equation too. If you're not getting much back in a trade you might as well persist and delist in a couple of years if he doesn't make it. Some are just a bit slower to come on. Gresham, Howard and Clark all looked very good at different points of time and all are coming off their worst seasons. A third round pick in a s**t draft is very unlikely to do anything but get a very low potential gamble. Chances of playing 100 games for a player taken after pick 30 drop away significantly.


This page has the graph that shows percentages of making 100 games in it and a pretty good analysis of how rare it is for a rookie to make it.

Round 20 – the “survival function” of AFL draftees, and Port’s makeshift ruck

Today we’re going show a simple “survival function” analysis, inspired by a query from Soccermetrics on Twitter who ran a similar analysis of MLS draft pick career tenures. Surviv…

hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com

Based on that , the chances of any of 3 pick 25's would be around 32%. While the chances of pick 5 would be above 35%.
Add to that , often later picks are there because of other compromises, the Forward isn't as tall, the mid can't kick that well etc.

The AFL points system is therefore wrong by saying that 3 pick 25's are worth 2268 points and pick 5 only worth 1878 points.

If a team suggested you should take 3 second round picks in exchange for your promising first round player, because...like points.
Show them the odds. Guarantee you lose them in the mathematics too.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Saints congratulate Ameet Bains

St Kilda CEO Matt Finnis today offered his congratulations to Ameet Bains on his appointment as Western Bulldogs CEO.

www.saints.com.au

"Ameet has played an instrumental role in regenerating our playing list, leading our recruitment team and providing support and leadership within our football department."

Ameet and Trout were the dynamic duo.

Did Trout address Ameet as Boy Wonder?

 

[MordySaint]

Did Trout address Ameet as Boy Wonder?

As we know Robin only does what Batman tells him to do.

 

[XhazzafootyX]

Great news

 

[kernelT]

Saints congratulate Ameet Bains

St Kilda CEO Matt Finnis today offered his congratulations to Ameet Bains on his appointment as Western Bulldogs CEO.

www.saints.com.au

"Ameet has played an instrumental role in regenerating our playing list, leading our recruitment team and providing support and leadership within our football department."

Ameet and Trout were the dynamic duo.

The wonder years.

What a list.