List Mgmt. 2024 List Management thread - Trade Targets Part 2

[FD2646]

Should find out about Jack Martin in the coming days you'd think

I will try to contain my excitement (not a dig at you Freo Leo).

 

[FreoMatt]

Yeah if I’m picking out of who we could afford to lose more out of cox and Darcy atm it’s pretty straight forward that cox is the one

That said , things could actually swing around tho in the next 12-18 mths, depending on what happens with knobel and his development
(should he stay ,which I thinks an absolute must )

Projects extremely promising as genuine tap ruckman and think has higher ceiling in terms of being able to play fwd than Darcy does.

Granted we also have some promising depth coming through our kpd ranks as well so cox is still likely expendable but it does give us some good wiggle room moving forward with regards to cap space

If you believe the Herald Suns “Rich 100” Darcy and Cox are both on $700-800 this year, but I think Darcy would be on more going forward given his new contract starts next year.


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[FreoMatt]

It’s all a guessing game isn’t it.

But also Darcy on 700k is a lot differnt story to Darcy on $1mil.

The $700-800 the HS mentioned was for this year, the last year of his old contract. He could still be on $1m for his new contract that starts next year but I hope not


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[s_wd6]

The $700-800 the HS mentioned was for this year, the last year of his old contract. He could still be on $1m for his new contract that starts next year but I hope not


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Nah both he and Cox's contracts start 2025. Cox signed until end of 2024 after his 2021 season. Off a torn hamstring. Not yet AA squad. Had about half a season's worth of decent games. No way he would be on 700k-800k based on that. So unless they've gone off Cox's new contract and Darcy's old contract in the same article, despite them signing both contracts at the exact same stages of their careers, then your argument makes no sense.

And that's ignoring the whole fact that the figures reported are mathematically impossible. Assuming we're using the full cap (which going off reports we're not, we've got a heap of cap space) then according to Yeti's calculations we would have 28 players at an average wage of $262,436. Which is well below the AFL average. And that's not taking into account that we have extra cap space, evidenced by us pursuing Baker and Warner all year, who would be at least $1.6mil you'd think.

 

[Swiggy]

The $700-800 the HS mentioned was for this year, the last year of his old contract. He could still be on $1m for his new contract that starts next year but I hope not


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Darcy took unders to stay at freo, him manger said that. I doubt he’s on as much many as reported

 

[pK75]

The $700-800 the HS mentioned was for this year, the last year of his old contract. He could still be on $1m for his new contract that starts next year but I hope not


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They both extended last year, so would have signed new contracts starting from this year, and probably front loaded for this year to use up the cap space we had available after losing Schultz and not brining anyone new in.

 

[maccamk]

If their contracts start in 2025 then I have no doubt the salary’s would have been bumped in the year they signed to smooth out the contract value.

There’s only a couple of reasons for a club to sign long term deals.
1) control the movement of talent
2) favourable salary terms
3) salary cap stability and planning

There will also be triggers for games played etc that protect the club and the player. I have no doubt that if Darcy’s body breaks down then there is a payout clause that is t the value of the remaining contract.


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[bruzaar62]

Darcy took unders to stay at freo, him manger said that. I doubt he’s on as much many as reported

I think I smell a rat-are you really swiggy or are you swaggy??

 

[arsesmart]

we manage without cox fine.

we dont manage without darcy fine.

"manage without X fine" is very much an intangible. I think all sides eventually can restructure and find ways to cover without potentially key players given enough weeks. Sometimes even within a very short space of time, depending on personnel.

However, much more concrete is whether "we're a better side with X fit and available".

 

[Sturty2Hurty]

For me I’d like us to bring in Baker and Bolton. Baker, Bolton, Freddy and Switta would be a sweet group of small forwards.

Leave Chad and Pickett for down the road, although if we bring them in a player or two will have to leave (which, being us, is inevitable).

 

[rgauci]

For me I’d like us to bring in Baker and Bolton. Baker, Bolton, Freddy and Switta would be a sweet group of small forwards.

Leave Chad and Pickett for down the road, although if we bring them in a player or two will have to leave (which, being us, is inevitable).

Baker and Bolton vs Warner and Pickett is liking picking craft singles when you can have Camembert. It’s like driving a Hyundai Getz instead of a Rolls Royce.

Help me out people, it’s like…

 

[s_wd6]

"manage without X fine" is very much an intangible. I think all sides eventually can restructure and find ways to cover without potentially key players given enough weeks. Sometimes even within a very short space of time, depending on personnel.

However, much more concrete is whether "we're a better side with X fit and available".

This is in a situation where we’re deciding if we’re a better team with cox or with kozzie

 

[summerthebat]

I don't want to start a debate on whether we dodged a bullet with Logan McDonald or not, but more on the disadvantage WA/SA clubs face with third party sponsorships of players, primarily with national/international brands.

I've been living in Sydney for about 10 years now and I'm always stunned when some moderate GWS or Swans player that has turned their back on more money interstate suddenly is the face of a national advertising campaign. In a state where every Swan supporter is a fraud, who couldn't identity Heeney in a line-up, suddenly the magnetic Will Hayward

19

Will Hayward

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

9.0

2star

K

4.3

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

9.4

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

is rolled out to be the face of Volkswagen.

There I was minding my own business this morning, partaking on my daily ritual of instagram brain-rot when I get a targeted advertisement for the 75 billion parent company Unilever's detergent brand OMO. Who is the face of OMO?

Wow! It's the irresistible megastar with the booming 35m kick (to the right) LOGAN MCDONALD!!!

I am sure it's just a coincidence that it was filmed weeks after Lucky Logan turned his back on suitors to sign his new contract.

Oh look it's all the poachable Brisbane Lions in a national McDonald's campaign.

I'm still waiting for Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

24

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

's Canning Vale Toyota or the Spudshed campaign to hit the screens here in Sydney,

 

[pK75]

This is in a situation where we’re deciding if we’re a better team with cox or with kozzie

I know you don’t rate Cox, but given his recent family expansion, he’s not going anywhere, you’re better off focusing on Ryan, given he’ll be lonely now that his bestie is lost to fatherhood, he’ll not know who to call when he wants a night out.

 

[pK75]

I know you don’t rate Cox, but given his recent family expansion, he’s not going anywhere, you’re better off focusing on Ryan, given he’ll be lonely now that his bestie is lost to fatherhood, he’ll not know who to call when he wants a night out.

Plus, I think Draper is better suited to the Ryan role of 3rd tall/interceptor play maker until he beefs up enough to handle the big dog forwards.

 

[Taylor]

I don't want to start a debate on whether we dodged a bullet with Logan McDonald or not, but more on the disadvantage WA/SA clubs face with third party sponsorships of players, primarily with national/international brands.

I've been living in Sydney for about 10 years now and I'm always stunned when some moderate GWS or Swans player that has turned their back on more money interstate suddenly is the face of a national advertising campaign. In a state where every Swan supporter is a fraud, who couldn't identity Heeney in a line-up, suddenly the magnetic Will Hayward is rolled out to be the face of Volkswagen.

There I was minding my own business this morning, partaking on my daily ritual of instagram brain-rot when I get a targeted advertisement for the 75 billion parent company Unilever's detergent brand OMO. Who is the face of OMO?

Wow! It's the irresistible megastar with the booming 35m kick (to the right) LOGAN MCDONALD!!!

I am sure it's just a coincidence that it was film weeks after Lucky Logan turned his back on suitors to sign his new contract.

Oh look it's all the poachable Brisbane Lions in a national McDonald's campaign.

I'm still waiting for Luke Jackson's Canning Vale Toyota or the Spudshed campaign to hit the screens here in Sydney,

You'll see that happen up the road too. I remember when Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling were on the HJs ad, then Nic Nat signed his extension and two seconds of footage of him was spliced onto the end of him folding his arms nodding, similar story when Jack Petrocelli signed an extension and was the face of Crown casino's Merrywell ads.

All mysteriously, coincidentally getting paid by the club sponsor right after agreeing to a new deal with the club.

I'm sure it's par for the course.

 

[Stinky Lomax]

You'll see that happen up the road too. I remember when Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling were on the HJs ad, then Nic Nat signed his extension and two seconds of footage of him was spliced onto the end of him folding his arms nodding, similar story when Jack Petrocelli signed an extension and was the face of Crown casino's Merrywell ads.

All mysteriously, coincidentally getting paid by the club sponsor right after agreeing to a new deal with the club.

I'm sure it's par for the course.

Over the last 10-15 years Geelong players have constantly taken unders to keep the group together & keep having cracks at flags.

SuRe ThEy HaVe GeElOnG

 

[arsesmart]

This is in a situation where we’re deciding if we’re a better team with cox or with kozzie

Fair enough. Although I'm sure we could navigate it without having to make that choice.

Sacrificing an experienced KPP would be a fair way down on my list of priorities should I wish to be contending next year.

 

[Polo342]

Why are people still talking about trading Cox? He was unfit for the entire season. Imagine tearing your hammy off the bone and trying to stay fit…

 

[DragoDelph]

Why are people still talking about trading Cox? He was unfit for the entire season. Imagine tearing your hammy off the bone and trying to stay fit…

Boredom.

Mostly.

 

[Alfonz]

Nah both he and Cox's contracts start 2025. Cox signed until end of 2024 after his 2021 season. Off a torn hamstring. Not yet AA squad. Had about half a season's worth of decent games. No way he would be on 700k-800k based on that. So unless they've gone off Cox's new contract and Darcy's old contract in the same article, despite them signing both contracts at the exact same stages of their careers, then your argument makes no sense.

And that's ignoring the whole fact that the figures reported are mathematically impossible. Assuming we're using the full cap (which going off reports we're not, we've got a heap of cap space) then according to Yeti's calculations we would have 28 players at an average wage of $262,436. Which is well below the AFL average. And that's not taking into account that we have extra cap space, evidenced by us pursuing Baker and Warner all year, who would be at least $1.6mil you'd think.

They aren't mathematically impossible. The majority of players in the competition earn less than the average salary. The Herald Sun numbers are definitely plausible, we'd just have a bigger squeeze than average on the low end of our list.

In 2023 there were 660 players on senior lists. The average salary was $440k. 128 players were on 100-200k; 106 on 200-300k; 96 on 300-400k; 91 on 400-500k. Estimate 40 from the last grouping and you have 56% under the average, and most of these by a large amount.

Assume the salaries are evenly distributed in the brackets, and there are around 20 senior listed players at every club below the $440k mark, at an average of $260k. We're probably operating under this benchmark, with our bottom 20 players on less.

If you include rookie listed players on $100k it is about 62%, or 26 out of 44 players on a list, at an average of $226k each.

These are 2023 numbers. Bump it up by 5% for 2024 increase. So with rookies, you'd have the bottom 26 at every club on an average of $240k.

And just because we have some space next year for our targets, doesn't mean we have it this year. The salary cap is planned years in advance and would be flexible (e.g. bring money forward for players on long term deals if a target doesn't come and there is a hole left over), and there is no way we would be leaving significant space in any year.

 

[MadMundy]

You're kidding yourself if you think we should trade Cox or Darcy, would be the laughing stock of the league once again if we did either of those things, neither of them are tradeable, I'd arguably put them in the untouchable camp.

 

[Purple Suit]

Over the last 10-15 years Geelong players have constantly taken unders to keep the group together & keep having cracks at flags.

SuRe ThEy HaVe GeElOnG

The biggest indicator of salary cap rules enforcement is the fact there hasn’t been a breech since Tippet & the Essendon drug saga. Not even a mistake or small fine has been reported on.

There use to be multiple mistakes every year and now every club is perfect despite being run by hugely competitive people who would sell their own grandmothers for an advantage.

They will crack down once Freo do something no doubt.

 

[Taylor]

The biggest indicator of salary cap rules enforcement is the fact there hasn’t been a breech since Tippet & the Essendon drug saga. Not even a mistake or small fine has been reported on.

There use to be multiple mistakes every year and now every club is perfect despite being run by hugely competitive people who would sell their own grandmothers for an advantage.

They will crack down once Freo do something no doubt.

Follows the same path as there not being any, as in not a single, illicit drug policy strike announcement that hasn't first been in the media forcing the AFL's hand.

Well done everyone.

 

[Dockeroo]

They aren't mathematically impossible. The majority of players in the competition earn less than the average salary. The Herald Sun numbers are definitely plausible, we'd just have a bigger squeeze than average on the low end of our list.

In 2023 there were 660 players on senior lists. The average salary was $440k. 128 players were on 100-200k; 106 on 200-300k; 96 on 300-400k; 91 on 400-500k. Estimate 40 from the last grouping and you have 56% under the average, and most of these by a large amount.

Assume the salaries are evenly distributed in the brackets, and there are around 20 senior listed players at every club below the $440k mark, at an average of $260k.

If you include rookie listed players on $100k it is about 62%, or 26 out of 44 players on a list, at an average of $226k each.

These are 2023 numbers. Bump it up by 5% for 2024 increase. So with rookies, you'd have the bottom 26 at every club on an average of $240k.

And just because we have some space next year for our targets, doesn't mean we have it this year. The salary cap is planned years in advance and would be flexible (e.g. bring money forward for players on long term deals if a target doesn't come and there is a hole left over), and there is no way we would be leaving significant space in any year.

Yes people mistakenly think the average salary is paid to the mid ranking player at each club.

If there’s 44 players on a list, the 22nd best player is not earning the average salary. It would be more accurate to quote median salaries but they never do that.
The 22nd highest paid player at freo is earning a lot less than $440k. The salaries are non-normally distributed. I would guess the average salary is paid to approx the 13th or 14th highest paid player on the list.
Off the top of my head the following are all earning less than $250k this year:
Draper
Williams
Corbett
Kuek
Simpson
Murphy
Wagner
Emmett
Banfield
Stanley
Reidy
Delean
Voss
Wagner
Sharp
Jones
Worner
Knobel
Mcdonald
Davies

That’s 20 players already. Pretty much half the list.

Then guys like Johnson, Sturt, Hughes and NOD probably in that next 250-350 bracket.

Players that generally get paid more than most people realise are former first round picks.
It probably surprises a lot of people here but Neil Erasmus, as a 2021 draft top 10 pick, for example is on a minimum of $400k this year, probably $450k, and next year too. Same for Heath chapman. Amiss too. Amiss probably over $500k given he’s on a long term deal and is a player in the rising star and in the most valuable position on the ground.

This article here from Peter Ryan of the age explains it well.

AFL 2023: How rule change will impact salaries of AFL draftees

Third-year players cashed in under the old system, but now most AFL draftees will have to wait a little longer for the most lucrative contracts. Learn how their salaries will be determined.

www.theage.com.au

Others paid a premium are guys traded into your club. Aish would be a good example. JOM and Brodie too. All former top 10/minidraft picks that have been well paid since year 3 of their careers onwards.