List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

[Danger in Texas]

Welsh is a medium marking forward, with good speed and aerial ability. Do not need Hayward imo unless he can move into the midfield.

Tyler Welsh is the medium size forward

1) who knows if Welsh even succeeds at AFL level yet
2) think I see him more as a 3rd tall to Fog/RT, good athletically but Hayward’s better in that regard

 

[Danger in Texas]

North were never going to match though, because they'd have known that they were guaranteed band 1 compensation (and therefore guaranteed pick 3).

Sydney will likely receive band 2 compensation, which with all of the first round father/son picks, probably blows out to pick 26-28 (though given how well they're doing so far this year, there may be little difference between bands 1 and 2 for them anyway). They'll be a lot less motivated to settle for that.

Depends if they can afford to match 800-850k

The Xander McGuire report says the Swans are only offering 550k, so I’d be inclined to say they wouldn’t want to match a deal 300k more

 

[Captain Furious]

You may be overrating the value of first rounders a tad. The par level for first rounders is not that high when you consider how many don't make it.

Davis
Talia
Smith
B Crouch (counting as a first rounder)
Doedee
Fogarty
Thilthorpe
Rachele
Michalanney

Ogilvy only drafted the bottom 5 of those and only the bottom 4 still on the list.

Fog was drafted at 12 and has played about 15-20 good games. You’d say late 2nd round about right, if you were generous.

Can’t see anyone drafting TT at 2 if they had another shot.

Rachele may be too early to tell but 6 feels high. Late 1st round, only because that draft looks a bit weaker, although NWM was still on the board.

Max’s draft position not determined by Ogilvy.

 

[Sanders]

Hayward is a classy talented player, the only knock is inconsistent output.

Thats an upgrade on what we have which is a few average to poor players, with consistent average output, of which he will be replacing one of them.

If we can get his output up with an increase in role and responsibility, then he will be well worth the money. If we can’t we’ve still got a good better player who we’ve overpaid, who cares, we’ve got the money.

Who cares?

I’d imagine the other players on our list seeing a player of that level being paid like that

 

[Captain Furious]

I like Hayward and feel we have a need for that type of player - instead of trying and failing to convert mids to do it - but 800+ and 6 years for a flanker…that feels a lot. Pretty much blows out everyone else chasing though.

 

[Pea Nut]

Can’t see anyone drafting TT at 2 if they had another shot.

Really. Who are you taking at 2 instead ? TT will be far and away better than McDonald, and the 2 WA clubs are coming super hard for him.

 

[George Kramer]

Who cares?

I’d imagine the other players on our list seeing a player of that level being paid like that

I reckon his team mates want to get better and make finals/win a flag, they’d know we’ve got to pay to bring players in. But with the increased cap the decent ones will be earning good salaries too, the ones not that good who won’t be can go if they are upset.

 

[rabidcrow]

I don't hate the Hayward offer. We're certainly paying the 'contract year' tax seeing Will is on a tear at the moment, but seeing the lad is 2 goals a game right now, a free agent, and the cap is moving upwards, it seems about what you'd expect.

Just a matter of if this is the real Hayward or is he performing above his station and into a big payday? And of course, does he have a midfield switch in him. It's a pure talent check after all.

He adds a lot of options to the team in terms of Rankine and Rachele. Generally kicks 25-30 goals in an average year (this year likely to be close to 40.
Good age profile
Great club experience with Sydney

Would be a great addition


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[Captain Furious]

Really. Who are you taking at 2 instead ? TT will be far and away better than McDonald, and the 2 WA clubs are coming super hard for him.

Errol Gulden or Max Holmes given hindsight. That draft was peak Ogilvy, 4 top 30 picks and we also got Pedlar, Cook and Berry.

 

[rabidcrow]

Be surprised if we weren't trying to get Draper with our first pick. We might need to trade up to get him.

As we know Adelaide boys often fall off the pace so will be interesting if he holds his spot at the top of the draft rankings. Hopefully he recovers from his stress fracture and we see him at nationals
I personally would love for us to get Hargrave with our second rounder. I think he would compliment our group well


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[GreyCrow]

We must have a fair bit of cap to use up.

Its Sloanes pocket change

 

[Sanders]

I reckon his team mates want to get better and make finals/win a flag, they’d know we’ve got to pay to bring players in. But with the increased cap the decent ones will be earning good salaries too, the ones not that good who won’t be can go if they are upset.

Sounds like a disaffected locker room, knowing a medium talent is being paid more than all of them

 

[Peter Doherty]

Ogilvy only drafted the bottom 5 of those and only the bottom 4 still on the list.

Fog was drafted at 12 and has played about 15-20 good games. You’d say late 2nd round about right, if you were generous.

Can’t see anyone drafting TT at 2 if they had another shot.

Rachele may be too early to tell but 6 feels high. Late 1st round, only because that draft looks a bit weaker, although NWM was still on the board.

Max’s draft position not determined by Ogilvy.

People tend to overrate draft picks. The level you need to get to, to be par or above probably isn't as high as you think it is.

 

[Sanders]

People tend to overrate draft picks. The level you need to get to, to be par or above probably isn't as high as you think it is.

Trade them then.

 

[rabidcrow]

North were never going to match though, because they'd have known that they were guaranteed band 1 compensation (and therefore guaranteed pick 3).

Sydney will likely receive band 2 compensation, which with all of the first round father/son picks, probably blows out to pick 26-28 (though given how well they're doing so far this year, there may be little difference between bands 1 and 2 for them anyway). They'll be a lot less motivated to settle for that.

Talk at the moment is they are 2-3 years @$550-60k
That’s a long way from 6 years @$800k

I think that’s what they would want to pay McDonald


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[George Kramer]

Sounds like a disaffected locker room, knowing a medium talent is being paid more than all of them

That’s the thing, I don’t think he will be paid more than all of them, certainly not the better ones. Sure he’d be paid more than the Jones and McHenrys but who cares? He won’t be paid more than Rankine, Dawson etc. Soligo and Rachelle have signed up long term deals and are young, if they did on low coin that’s on them and their managers, they took the long term deals. But I think the club will look after the better players with the cap increase anyway.

 

[Trigger13]

Perhaps some Swans fans can shed some light on why Hayward is their whipping boy. 800k/6 years for a whipping boy seems like a bad list strategy to me .


“But, but he South Australian”.

Get a bloody midfielder ffs.

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

Depends if they can afford to match 800-850k

The Xander McGuire report says the Swans are only offering 550k, so I’d be inclined to say they wouldn’t want to match a deal 300k more

They most likely wouldn't. But they could match our bid purely to force a trade, so they can get a few picks further up the board.

Then again, is the draft actually all that strong this year? They might not see it as worthwhile if the talentboard isn't strong.

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

Perhaps some Swans fans can shed some light on why Hayward is their whipping boy. 800k/6 years for a whipping boy seems like a bad list strategy to me.

From what I've already read, it's moreso due to his weaker games.

His score involvements per game aren't particularly high - amongst Sydney players, he's ranked 8th this year, 8th last year, 10th in 2022, 10th in 2021. He normally averages 10-12 disposals per game, so when he's not scoring goals, he isn't actually contributing that much.

 

[Trigger13]

From what I've already read, it's moreso due to his weaker games.

His score involvements per game aren't particularly high - amongst Sydney players, he's ranked 8th this year, 8th last year, 10th in 2022, 10th in 2021. He normally averages 10-12 disposals per game, so when he's not scoring goals, he isn't actually contributing that much.

So, by my calculations, the AFC will pay him $3300 per disposal.

What a deal

 

[Sanders]

That’s the thing, I don’t think he will be paid more than all of them, certainly not the better ones. Sure he’d be paid more than the Jones and McHenrys but who cares? He won’t be paid more than Rankine, Dawson etc. Soligo and Rachelle have signed up long term deals and are young, if they did on low coin that’s on them and their managers, they took the long term deals. But I think the club will look after the better players with the cap increase anyway.

I don’t think Rankine Dawson etc are on that coin

There’s going to be a lot of renegotiation demands if a medium talent is get big money

It might be different if he was actually good

 

[Afcprophet]

The way I see the expected value of a pick is pretty much the same as their number. Pick 1 should be your best player. Pick 22 should be about the final player selected in your final 22. Second rounders are depth. Fog being pick 12 seems about right, roughly the 12th best player on your list. He'd definitely be in every teams first 22 imo, or thereabouts at a minimum.

 

[GreyCrow]

The way I see the expected value of a pick is pretty much the same as their number. Pick 1 should be your best player. Pick 22 should be about the final player selected in your final 22. Second rounders are depth. Fog being pick 12 seems about right, roughly the 12th best player on your list. He'd definitely be in every teams first 22 imo, or thereabouts at a minimum.

I think there is something wrong with this thinking

How do we rate Soligo?

Does that mean McHenry is the 16th best player ?

I think it has flaws

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

I think there is something wrong with this thinking

How do we rate Soligo?

Does that mean McHenry is the 16th best player ?

I think it has flaws

That's not quite right. What they mean is that a player should be that level. Nedward is not our 16th best player (clearly worse), so he's a busted pick. Soligo is not the 36th best player on our list (clearly way better), so he was an exceptional pick.

I don't actually agree with this line of thinking personally, as we don't have a player from every pick from 1-42. A better way of looking at it would be to put all the players on the list in order of where they were taken (with asterisks for players like Walker, as well as exceptions for younger players), and going from there.

 

[Sanders]

The way I see the expected value of a pick is pretty much the same as their number. Pick 1 should be your best player. Pick 22 should be about the final player selected in your final 22. Second rounders are depth. Fog being pick 12 seems about right, roughly the 12th best player on your list. He'd definitely be in every teams first 22 imo, or thereabouts at a minimum.

There is no basis for this given the fail rates