List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading

[119others]

I still maintain we would be one of the few clubs that would have MASSIVE coin available in the cap.

-Sloane gone
-Smith surely to retire at the end of the year.
-Tex 50/50 to play on next year and only on moderate 1 year deals as it is.
-Rach & Soligo locked away long term and likely front loaded
-Our two best players Rankine and Dawson are mid contracts and will easily retain them on increased coin when needed.
-ROB/Laird/Keays/Crouch would be all on 'moderate' to above average coin.

The vast bulk of the rest of our players are rookies/recent draftees, role players or 'emerging' players like Nank/Pedlar/Worrell/Keane etc.

Probably hardest one to value is Fogarty as he is inconsistent but seems a affable country kid who will probably prefer to stay in Adelaide (like Tex has).

You look at alot of the top sides, they would have at least 2 or 3 players on $1m+ a season deals... We are nowhere close to that.

Agree 100% very strong position. Silvers mentioned this in person last year

I’ve said before the latest rise I thought we may be 2.5-3m already under the cap. We would have prepaid Rankine, Dawson, Racheke, Soligo to be heavily front loaded leaving huge capacity.

Personally can’t see why we couldn’t afford McC 1.25, Hayward 800k (if he’s worth it) and another mid range player like Cummins . And that’s BEFORE the cap increases

 

[FullyBigKPro]

Agree 100% very strong position. Silvers mentioned this in person last year

I’ve said before the latest rise I thought we may be 2.5-3m already under the cap. We would have prepaid Rankine, Dawson, Racheke, Soligo to be heavily front loaded leaving huge capacity.

Personally can’t see why we couldn’t afford McC 1.25, Hayward 800k (if he’s worth it) and another mid range player like Cummins . And that’s BEFORE the cap increases

Shrewd by Silvers....

 

[Samcro24]

If we had Petty we would have won on the weekend.

We could have had Petty and Goad.

In not saying we would have been better off, but there's a lot to happen before we know what was the right pick.

On SM-S928B using BigFooty.com mobile app

That would have been Petty Goad.

Petty, Petty Goad.

 

[119others]

Shrewd by Silvers....

He mentioned in his Brissie pregame speech last year and then I probed a little further in some one on one time and clearly without providing any specifics, I was left under no doubt we have huge capacity.

 

[ABAB]

not sure how you could argue Rachele is below par for 3rd year player.

he's outperforming most of the players taken immediately after him. higher production than the players drafted 5-10 in 2020.

higher production than Rozee or Rankine at the same age.

Guess he didn't noticed Rachele's entire 1st half of his debut year and the first 8 weeks last year when he transitioned into the midfield and averaged 20 disposals and kicked 10.10. Also having a good season averaging 17 disposals and 1.1 goal despite others somehow thinking he has been in poor form.

 

[Crows I Am]

Well that's one side of the thing. It's another goal kicker and heck, it might free Pedlar up towards a midfield move seeing we should be at the point now where its something worth exploring - especially with Laird falling out of favour in our midfield unit. Or as you say, Rankine/Rachele.



Probably not for Dawson, seeing his next contract is when he's 29. Rankine is probably the big one who could break the 1mil mark on our list.

Thilthorpe is probably the dark horse for this if he breaks out in the back end of this year or 2025.

Yes fair enough re Dawson, I didn't think about his age at the end of his contract. That is a big win for us to have him on a good contract while he is in the prime of his playing career. If he was out of contract this year he would be demanding big bucks.

 

[119others]

Niot sure ROB and Laird even get another contract do they? And ditto Crouch also!

Interested in what’s so confronting about this comment?

Laird close to fait accompli last contract now. Turns 31 late this year and still contracted for another 2 years until end of 2026. VERY unlikely to receive another contract as a player turning 34 in 2027.

ROB - contracted to end of 2025. Age isn’t as big an issue (only 30ish) but he is clearly not up to it and Reid will likely replace him IMO this off season or next. Will possibly get a smaller contract (1-2 years on low coin) as cover. When we traded for Jacobs he played 19 games first year with us as a 23 year old. I expect similar to occur here.

Crouch - with Laird still on the list and a plethora of younger players battling for mid spots (Rankine, Rachele, Pedlar, Dowling, Edwards and Taylor for starters) I am not confident he gets another contract at the end of 2025. He is only 30 ish but with the above younger players, Laird still contracted and our extreme reluctance to even re-sign him last year I think he is likely goneski.

So overall Laird definitely gone, Crouch likely gone and ROB likely to be overtaken and token small contract at best

 

[Crows I Am]

Shrewd by Silvers....

Crows list management team trying to spend their money on new players

 

[Dangerousfield]

Where does Murphy sit in this equation over the 6 years.

When does his undeserved contract expire, end of 2025? Can't come soon enough for me. We aren't winning finals with our bottom 5-6, we must upgrade, the more FA we get in, the further down the pecking order some of the dross sinks.

Wasn't it reported Dawson signed on for 5 x 750? Now we're talking Hayward 5/6 x 800? I know who's worth more out of those two!

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

How do you figure we had Goad in that scenario?

If we hadn't made the Curtin trade, we likely take 12 and 17 to the draft. So maybe they're thinking we traded that first pick for Petty, Melbourne accepted that and we used the second one on Goad.

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

Where does Murphy sit in this equation over the 6 years.

On a SANFL list with any luck.

 

[George Kramer]

If we hadn't made the Curtin trade, we likely take 12 and 17 to the draft. So maybe they're thinking we traded that first pick for Petty, Melbourne accepted that and we used the second one on Goad.

No chance they would have accepted just the one first

 

[Golumless]

Statistically Rach might be tracking ok, but he doesn't look like his ceiling is anywhere near Rozee's.

Rozee didn't look like his ceiling was anywhere near Rozee in his third year, seeing they're tracking at near identical rates. At this point there was a lot of hope from Port Adelaide that Rozee could be that player, but there is that question mark until they've done it. It would take until round 6 in his 4th year for that opportunity to come.

Really, Rash third year is playing out at a very similar rate to Rozee third year. Some big performances, a lot of 'doing a job at half forward without staring', and at the point where they're consistent. Under the hood it looks like a kid who is well and truly ready for a inside midfield role, and has capped out at half forward, however until they've done it...

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

No chance they would have accepted just the one first

I agree. Just telling you their thought process.

 

[NSolis]

heck me this board is nauseating, bringing up draft misses from 2016 still when we were contending for a flag has nothing to do with the current coaching group or list build. That constant whinging is so boring.

Jarrod Berry has also been playing as a wing for a large part of his career btw and Brisbane aren't without their draft misses (ummm Rayner pick one?).

Players brought into the club since Nicks took over who are either already elite, well above average or a promising talent still early in their career (only picked guys that have actually debuted at AFL level):
Dawson - our captain, best player and an AA big bodied mid
Rankine - very close to our best player and probably AA this year, also now seeing major midfield minutes
Michellaney - takes the oppositions best small and has looked settled from game one
Thilthorpe - still only 4th season, but was more consistent in 2023 and looked primed for a breakout in 2024 before injury
Rachele - becoming a very damaging half forward/mid in just his 3rd season and is above average or elite in many key categories for the position he plays
Soligo - full time midfielder in just his 3rd season (a year before Port did the same with Butters and Rozee) and already a Showdown medallist and rivalling Dawson as our best midfielder for years to come
Curtin - elite talent, could be used almost anywhere on the ground, still a fair way to go with his development but there have been enough promising signs there is a potential elite player here
Worrell - becoming an elite intercept defender in just his 5th season and almost our most important down there (injury is a huge blow)
Keane - cost us nothing and now looks like being one of our main pillars down back for a decade
Murray - same comments as Keane
Hinge - cost us nothing and very important to our ball movement from D50 or a turnover
Keays - cost us nothing and is a very good pressure player in the F50, but an elite work rate also allows him to become a link player between the arcs; hits the scoreboard at least once or twice per game too
Pedlar - very promising 2023, slow start to 2024 but has shown signs there is a quality half forward/mid here
Schoenberg - jury still out, but has shown enough promising signs in a short career so far and has come become supremely fit since a nasty injury
Cook - jury still out, needs to find more of the ball, but does display good skills when he does actually get it
Nankervis - still very early, but enough promising signs

That is a good list of players that can build around some more senior guys (Tex, Crouch, Laird) and some just about to enter their prime drafted just before Nicks arrived (Fogarty). Ryan, Dowling and Taylor of those yet to debut could make a long term impact at AFL level. Have some decent enough depth in most positions that can play their role when needed (Himmelberg, Gollant, Burgess, Sholl, Berry, Jones, Butts, Borlase, Strachan).

Hopefully able to add someone like Hayward/Perryman/Cumming at the end of this year to push out the likes of McHenry and Murphy from regular rotations in the 22. Petty at the end of 2025 as KPP depth.

This has nothing to do with my opinions on Nicks as the coach, it's purely just the list build since he took over, which I believe is shaping up nicely for a consistent top 4 push.

Our record since 2020 in terms of drafting and trading is pretty good. Even if say Pedlar and Cook end up being misses that's still not bad overall. The period immediately before that was poor, which is our main issue at the moment with the list. If we had some hits in 2018 and 2019 we'd be in a much better spot. But I don't have too many criticisms since then.

I personally think we are only a few missing pieces away from a very good side. Another goalkicking option, another strong, versatile midfielder and a half-back flanker are the main needs, plus a little more development with what we have. Scoring Max and Keane in the backline for cheap has been a huge piece of good fortune in the last 12-18 months which has helped a lot.

We are also light on depth. But yes, it's not that dire.

 

[Vader]

If a pick 1 is your best player, then he has lived up to expectations.

This is probably a fair call, though clubs who have multiple pick #1s on their list may have an issue - as they can't all be the "best player".

If a pick 40 is in your best 22, then he's done better than expected.

... and NO. Your theory breaks down in that clubs don't get every pick between 1-40. In all likelihood, pick 40 is the club's 2nd or 3rd pick in that draft. Given that relatively few players survive for 10+ years in the system, a club's 2nd pick being in the best 22 is the "expected result", not "better than expected".

If a pick 10 isn't in your best 10 players then he has done worse than expected.

That depends entirely on how many top-10 picks the club has had over the years. GWS & GC started with about 7 of the top-10 picks in their first year, and added more in subsequent years. They can't all end up as top-10 players at the club.

 

[BigBoSS_Riot]

Our record since 2020 in terms of drafting and trading is pretty good. Even if say Pedlar and Cook end up being misses that's still not bad overall.

I don't think Cook should ever be quantified as a miss, purely because of the lack of quality drafted after him. There's only four or five players I would definitively take over him right now, and they are Gulden (Sydney academy), McCreery, Brandon Walker (Fremantle NGA), Maurice Rioli Jr (Richmond F/S) and maybe Treacy.

 

[Sanders]

For those who haven’t followed Hayward or don’t know much about him—
Medium sized forward at 186cm or so, great in the air and equally good below knees, provides a lot of forward pressure off the ball, having a career year this year and appears to be peaking. Is Sydney’s leading goal kicker so far in 2024 (19). Whether he maintains this form yet to be seen, but as a 25 year old he’s at the ripe age to enter his golden window. Even on his “quiet” games, he contributes a fair bit defensive which is why he may have had whipping boy status in the past as those roles go under appreciated; this year he’s enjoyed having more freedom+supply with Heeney moving up the field and hence resulting in goals.

At the moment the crows do not have this type of player on their list, and immediately he’s an upgrade on whenever keayes plays forward, upgrade on Rachele when he’s forward (hence allowing him more midfield time where it’s becoming increasingly obvious where he’s going to end up), better in the air and better kick than pedlar (who also will eventually move into the middle). Basically is the perfect complimenting medium 3rd forward who can also apply forward pressure and make those third tall free defenders that usually carve the crows up accountable. So seems a great fit right? The question however, is what welsh turns into, who admittedly plays a little bit taller, and how that affects the look of the forward line post Tex.

Re: money, much like the cost of petrol I think everyone needs to reset expectations on what players are being paid with an increase in caps and average contracts going up. 500-600k is the new 300k average. We aren’t going to be seeing less than a dollar unleaded 95 here on in, folks.

Also as with everyone else I agree that the main focus as always should be big bodied in-out midfielders to compliment who we have already (Dawson is one, need at least another couple from somewhere).

Positional value matters.

He’s a replacement for McAdam, and at those rates that’s premium money for a very non-premium position

 

[Sanders]

Likely those key guys are on percentage of cap deals so their deal rises when the cap does (so when cap goes up 30% next year they get that on their deal)

Very unlikely they’re on a type of deal that doesn’t exist, and may not even be permitted (?)

Some sports outright ban those types of contracts

 

[Sanders]

If a pick 1 is your best player, then he has lived up to expectations. If a pick 40 is in your best 22, then he's done better than expected. If a pick 10 isn't in your best 10 players then he has done worse than expected.

When? How long have you allowed for this to happen? What about positional value

 

[Peter Doherty]

Very unlikely they’re on a type of deal that doesn’t exist, and may not even be permitted (?)

Some sports outright ban those types of contracts

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/jon-ralph-how-mckays-eyewatering-salary-could-become-the-norm-as-salary-cap-increase-kicks-in/news-story/7307a3aef7f62340a721b6adc3644d78?amp&nk=ad1eb4574b49f8c3ad9b121b75351031-1715676715

"In 2024, $700,000 a year is the new $500,000, especially for free agents.

And as a result free agents and out-of-contract players who didn’t even finish top 10 in their club’s best-and-fairests are about to get the payday of their lives.

It is the result of a salary cap which skyrockets next year to $17.7 million and of clubs which retained plenty of last year’s 10 per cent pay rise under the new collective agreement.

The salary cap immediately went up 10 per cent in 2023 and five per cent for 2024 but perhaps only half of players had clauses in their contracts which immediately handed on those pay rises.

So many of those clubs now have vast war chests - think Hawthorn, St Kilda, North Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle, West Coast and Adelaide .

Those same clubs can now lock away first-round picks on mandatory three-year deals - a nice saving - and will continue to offer rock-bottom deals to fringe players despite the cap going up 27 per cent from 2023 to 2025."

"Adelaide tried to get ahead of the trend by offering Harrison Petty $800,000 a year - with as much as $1.2 million front-ended into 2024 - as they sniffed the breeze."

 

[spenze]

Milera would be in line for a significant pay cut also.

I'd cut him loose at the end of his contract. Lets not pretend he is going to magically become less injured from now on

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I'd cut him loose at the end of his contract. Lets not pretend he is going to magically become less injured from now on

Unfortunately this is correct

I'm a fan but it's just not happening for him and we should cut our losses

If he magically gets fit and carves up at his next club, so be it but we would've played the odds

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Worrell has agreed to a 2 year extension taking him to the end of the 2027 season.

 

[119others]

Revealed: Saints’ massive offer to make Weitering one of the richest players in the AFL

Carlton’s superstar defender is set to become one of the highest-paid players in the AFL after St Kilda informally pitched him a bumper multi-year deal.

www.theage.com.au

1.5m x 8 for Weitering as a 26 yo….wow. Also says Blues have offered Hayward 650k per year x 6


The Blues’ salary cap is already close to bursting, but the club is confident it can snare Will Hayward from Sydney on a six-year contract worth $650,000 per season.

The South Australian-born Hayward is also being courted by both Adelaide and Port Adelaide.