Analysis 2025 Draft watch

[Aphrodite]

 

[Uncle Fester]

Yeah, although the problem for "sliders" is, clubs will have to trade by the time a Dean bid is matched, so won't be able to guarantee a specific player.

What we do know is, Austin will have worked out deals and contingencies. He's been pretty active and aggressive in moving picks.

yup - i also think that if they all know we are trading out - the early bid probably wont happen - deals will have been lined up with multiple teams

 

[CCurnow3picks]

This is all complete nonsense mumbo jumbo.

Nick Daicos was not a 'clear number 1' at all. JHF was rightly or wrongly rated ahead of him due to the unique circumstances that plagued that draft, it wasn't at all surprising. Also Sam Darcy was bid on at two that year which proves even amongst the club tied prospects Daicos still wasn't a clear number 1.

And yes, plenty of people in here suggested Dean was a mid-late first rounder before Twomey and co broke the news that he's expected to go in the top handful.

The Dean sliding crew have now set up a classic Carlton fan situation where we have a crowd that are ready to call for Austin's head again if we match a bid in the top handful because they're convinced he's not worth that despite clearly being rated by recruiters and draft watchers around that mark.

There's no coordinated campaign to make us bid more on Dean by the media, he's just a very good prospect who's rightly being talked about because the bid will certainly shape the first round of the draft for multiple teams.

Let’s also not forget he’s a famous son of a Carlton Legend - a club with a very big following - who consume content!

The audience for the other top 10 aspirants somewhat less engaged.

 

[agro]

Lol my response was before I saw Veruka added.

Regardless of the “I want it now” we knew we were committed to Dean and Ison and knew that TDK, Curnow and Silvagni were going well before the trade period, we needed to make more provision for points/picks to ensure we were are able to take another pick in the first round outside of Dean and wherever Ison falls.

 

[Stamos]

Regardless of the “I want it now” we knew we were committed to Dean and Ison and knew that TDK, Curnow and Silvagni were going well before the trade period, we needed to make more provision for points/picks to ensure we were are able to take another pick in the first round outside of Dean and wherever Ison falls.

What else do you think we could have done?

 

[agro]

What else do you think we could have done?

Got more points to ensure our picks weren’t eaten up for Dean.

 

[Blue__Balls]

haha no.....we're not deducting points out of our 2026 Round 1 selections or trading backwards.

2026 is a considerably stronger draft by all reports plus there is a certain Cody Walker we need to pay for.

Haha yes...you have no idea what we'll do.

Who's to say it's a backwards trade? Hypothetically, we could approach a mid table club for a late second they don't particularly want or need on the night, for a swap of future first rounders. There's an element of risk involved, for both parties - maybe we slide and we end up downgrading...but maybe we climb or they slide and we get a free upgrade out of it ourselves - that's the nature of future pick trading. If we need points this year, the option is there.

2027 picks can be traded too, if we don't want to risk 2026 shenanigans. And if we do need to sacrifice a few 2026 points...well, there's still a whole other trade period at the end of next year as well.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Got more points to ensure our picks weren’t eaten up for Dean.

By what...trading out more players?

 

[blueboy25]

Let’s also not forget he’s a famous son of a Carlton Legend - a club with a very big following - who consume content!

The audience for the other top 10 aspirants somewhat less engaged.

Let's hope it's the same for Essendon next season when young Bewick is likely to be at the pointy end of the draft

 

[Stamos]

Got more points to ensure our picks weren’t eaten up for Dean.

How?

 

[agro]

How?

I’m not paid $150k plus - that’s up to Austin to figure out.

 

[DZ4]

I think bid is likely to come from Tigers....after they have bid on Uwland, Patterson and Annable
If not tigers then maybe Demons, Don't think Essendon need another key defender, would only be bidding to keep carlton honest, whereas Demons have a need.

whats the strategy trade out of both 9 + 11 for points / future picks or keep picks and match then move back a little and get a pick in before Ison?

Tigers have Balta, Gibcus, Miller, Gray, Trainor and Kozi as KPD on the list. Vlastuin who essentially plays as a CHB and Broad who plays taller. Also more KPF than you could poke a stick at, and we know where they go when they inevitably fail. I would be incredibly surprised if they bid on Dean.

Essendon to keep us honest as that’s just about his range, or Dees to fill a need like you suggest.

 

[GT619]

On the back of the rumours I've watched some VFL highlights and quite like Tobyn Murray....clean, fast, knows where the goals are and Corrigan stated he can run 14-15km a game.

Almost a week out I think my wishlist is:

Dean
Ison
Murray
Ryan Eyers - rookie/ SSP

Plus Adel F1

Murray would be on standby if our Dean bid gets pushed way back

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Murray would be om standby if our Dean bid gets pushed way back

Yeah I'd imagine dovaston/Pickett would be plan A. I'm happy with plan b if it came with a F1

 

[LemmingMaster]

I've been in the camp of Dean was getting too much good press, then I rewatched more vision and actually put some thought into the ranking and I can see a world where he will get a high bid.

Just so much variation in rankings for this draft class. Someone could argue Farrow being drafted at pick ~7-10 and I would not bat an eyelid. There is also a world where he could be selected with pick 20, depending on how clubs rate players.

There will be many clubs walking away from this draft feeling like they've got a player rated high on their boards compared to where they drafted him.

 

[Jimmae]

I've been in the camp of Dean was getting too much good press, then I rewatched more vision and actually put some thought into the ranking and I can see a world where he will get a high bid.

Just so much variation in rankings for this draft class. Someone could argue Farrow being drafted at pick ~7-10 and I would not bat an eyelid. There is also a world where he could be selected with pick 20, depending on how clubs rate players.

There will be many clubs walking away from this draft feeling like they've got a player rated high on their boards compared to where they drafted him.

I get that there's variability, but you've got West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond all looking to build up their midfield stocks. One of them will have a flutter at CDT because of his athletic ability and competency as a forward, but beyond that they're not really chasing talls.

Melbourne have a mild argument to bid, but still have May at this point in time and are developing others. I think that remains the ceiling. If Essendon or Richmond bid on a player they had zero intention of taking, it will come back to haunt them whenever they want to trade a pick or claim a player for the next 20 years, and not just with us.

I genuinely believe their interest is just in covering their bases as to where all these guys sit, and what would be prudent should they trade down a little in the order, much like how West Coast might be thinking at pick 13.

 

[motleyblues]

Just for those who haven’t seen my musings on this topic previously. In my view, inference can be made to suggest Cowan will not play for the Devils:

1: he is from the northwest of the state, the team is from the south. Parochialism dominates in Tasmania.
2: he was a Carlton fan growing up. Yes, yes, I know… JSOS. But it means Carlton is as likely to be close to his heart as Tasmania.

I wouldn’t be writing him off as necessarily Devils-bound.

I’m from Devonport in tassie as well , and unless he’s offered big money I don’t think he would go to Hobart to play .from all reports his family are big Carlton fans . Quicker to fly to Devonport from Melbourne than drive up from Hobart.

 

[chuncey]

I’m from Devonport in tassie as well , and unless he’s offered big money I don’t think he would go to Hobart to play .from all reports his family are big Carlton fans . Quicker to fly to Devonport from Melbourne than drive up from Hobart.

As an ignorant mainlander, are there such things as internal commercial flights in Tassie eg between Hobart and Launceston? How long would it take? Most of it would be taxiing!

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

l believe you are missing the point here, most posters acknowledge Dean is a very good prospect, the issue is whilst other clubs have brought in the Ashcrofts & Darcy etc for a bargain we are paying our 1st plus, potentially using our other 1st depending on the bid to obtain one player same with Walker using multiple 1st rounders, just bad timing for us on the rule changes.

That's not the point at all. Every person in here has acknowledged that as a factor.

My issue is with those who have smeared Dean as some sort of mid-late first round type prospect and now this forum is filled with people saying we should skip on matching a bid if he goes in the top 5, which is truly lunacy.

 

[zeeCFC]

Dean was a clear BOG in the Vic derby at the champs. We'll be getting a top 5 draft pick with pick 9 and that's a huge win.

The only thing that's somewhat tied us up is Ison's improvement and not having a pick right now to match and having to dilute pick 11.

 

[macky99]

That's not the point at all. Every person in here has acknowledged that as a factor.

My issue is with those who have smeared Dean as some sort of mid-late first round type prospect and now this forum is filled with people saying we should skip on matching a bid if he goes in the top 5, which is truly lunacy.

l would suggest that is a minority pushing that line, probably not even a point because we have already committed to taking him.

 

[macky99]

Dean was a clear BOG in the Vic derby at the champs. We'll be getting a top 5 draft pick with pick 9 and that's a huge win.

The only thing that's somewhat tied us up is Ison's improvement and not having a pick right now to match and having to dilute pick 11.

If we walk away for pick 9 for Dean that is good outcome but seems unlikely given a bid is likely to mean our 2nd pick will be pushed back.

 

[katmanblue]

What else do you think we could have done?

Should have told Dean to calm the **** down throughout the year.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Should have told Dean to calm the **** down throughout the year.

While I take your point, it's very hard to tell a competitive beast to not be competitive...plus we want competitive beasts

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

 

[Rugged Blue Bagger]

This discussion with Sotaram shows some likely scenarios for when Dean gets bid on. Looking more and more liley that we will only walk away with Dean, Ison and a later bid.
If we get a Dean bid at Bombers pick we and use out pick 17, 18, 19, 20 on next best Ison may not be achievable if he gets a 20-30 bid