Autopsy 2025 Round 19 Tight game but Blues wanted it Moir

[Gethelred]

Sorry clanger differential 19 free kick differential 8, i said clanger was a bigger impact than frees. I rest my case

You're welcome to rest your case. This isn't a courtroom, and you've not made a case; what you've done is isolate a statistic from its context.

Which is bad statistics, and bad analysis.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Watched the replay this morning.
Williams looked good in the middle.
Nice to see Cripps, Curnow and Weitering find some form.
Cowan, Carroll, Lord and Moir were all good. Be nice to see them get the rest of the year.

A win is good, but still seeing a lot of the same mistakes. High dump kicks, poor forward 50 entries and when we do take that shorter, more aggressive option, we miss targets by 1-2m.
We won partially due to Dees being just as bad.

 

[CoachB]

You're welcome to rest your case. This isn't a courtroom, and you've not made a case; what you've done is isolate a statistic from its context.

Which is bad statistics, and bad analysis.

You are the one who said the umpires won us the game....

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

This is what does my head in. Durdin is the best small we have. He has one bad game and is dropped (fair enough) but Motlop has had so many poor games this year, and yet he holds his spot every week, and Fogarty is nearly as much a protected species.

I would be filthy if I was Durdin.
Voss obviously doesn't like him.

Not sure what Mots has done in the previous 3 or so weeks, because I haven't been watching, but last night and back when I was watching, he wasn't quite getting reward for effort on the scoreboard, but he was working pretty hard, getting up the ground and getting involved in a lot of plays.

 

[BlueTongue]

Not sure what Mots has done in the previous 3 or so weeks, because I haven't been watching, but last night and back when I was watching, he wasn't quite getting reward for effort on the scoreboard, but he was working pretty hard, getting up the ground and getting involved in a lot of plays.

I'm not so pissed at Motts recent form, but there was a big stretch of form that didnt deserve rewarding, yet he (and Fog) have survived the axe and Durdin has been dropped almost immediately. It's BS.

 

[norway blue]

Agree with Soapy to a point re. what a shit show of a season . For a myriad of reasons. But winning helps build confidence and that’s the measuring stick . I enjoyed the effort to win . Was a gutsy team effort imo. I Look forward to next week.

 

[JustaBattler]

I prefer to watch a win than a loss- but that is just me I guess.

 

[Gethelred]

You are the one who said the umpires won us the game....

... and they did.

To say that umpiring won us the game is not a statistical argument. To say that clangers contributed more than the free kick differential is a statistical argument. You've neglected to demonstrate your case. I've adequately demonstrated mine - outside of the stats, through discussion of examples of play - and your attempt to divert it to a statistical argument fell on its arse.

Now, I don't know about you, but I've better things to do with my time than explain to you why you're wrong and bad at statistics. I'm going to do something more productive with my time.

 

[carlton_99]

But that's the thing, though; we received the rub of the green all match. There was a period at the beginning of the final term where we couldn't get our hands on it and the umps blunted every single attempt they made at going forward.

The kind of thing they did for us yesterday is what - if I were the type to wear a tinfoil hat - would lead me to think that the AFL have had enough of belting us from pillar to post, and need us fans to recommit and buy back into the comp. It's why the messaging by the media - the comms, via the much more positive, 'Look what they have, the young talent coming through'; Nathan Buckley having done some research on Moir, the positive coverage of Carroll and Hollands - has moved from a deficit based assessment - this is what they're not doing, why they're so far off the pace - to a capabilitites based assessment - this is what they can do, where their strengths are.

The umps had our backs last night, to an extreme degree. A single free kick and/or deliberate call resulting in a goal or two to them doesn't change the fact that they kept us in it when Melbourne were going at us.

Free kicks being paid in a flurry doesn't mean they are wrong. Same thing with free kicks that lead to goals. Did you have an issue with any specific free kicks at the start of Q4? On the rest of the game thought there were plenty of poor decisions both ways as is the case in most games nowadays.

 

[GoBlues!]

Interesting isn’t it. Everyone see it differently. I get no excitement out of last night. It was a shocking game we barely won.

I am all about success and Flags. That’s it for me. Last night showed me again how far we are aware from it. So many sitting with us (all Carlton members, former players etc) feel the same. Yeh we won, but to many of us that have grown up in an era of success it means little

Last night was just a nothing result for me

It’s pretty clear this year’s been a failure by any measure.

It’s about setting up for next year and finding who can step up and play AFL and become regulars. Players like Carroll, Moir, Cowan, Lord and HOF all big ticks last night. They should play in the remaining 5 games.

 

[Beyond Blue]

One hundred percent. Usually attend about 13 or 14 games a year. This year just 3 or so. I think the reality that we are a constant cycle of nothingness has finally drained many of us. I was there at the G for Carlton's last premiership. We are talking 30 years ago now. That's ridiculous. Two rebuilds and heading for a third.

Although, I don't think we need a full on third rebuild as the issues lies with the actual culture of the club and how it eventually infiltrates the playing group and gun players become mediocre players etc etc. our inability to select coaches whose abilities have long term effectiveness, ie game style.

I can understand why players like Cripps and so are going through the motions this year. He has been busting his chops for 12 years and it deems there is no light at the end of the tunnel. We are a portly run club that have been making unprofessional decisions for a long time.

But there was a lot of feedback from track watchers and insiders at the start of the season that the coaches and players have never been more aligned. This “there is no light at the end of the tunnel” stuff seems like a very convenient excuse our the highly played so called “star” players. They haven’t even experienced half the disappointment some “successful” players from other clubs have. Being so close for so many years near the sounds like a first world problem comparatively but it’s equally soul destroying. This group got close to the summit once and it seems it was more through good luck than anything else. When the going gets tough the true leaders work even harder.

If the leaders have dropped their heads this year coz the situation has got the better of them then that’s on them. It is a highly competitive environment so it’s something they have to learn to deal with. Indeed the great leaders of the game past and current all thrive on it and will themselves to go the extra mile doing whatever is required of them to succeed. True leaders like Hodge, Selwood, Cotchin, Dangerfield and even blokes like Franklin, Cameron and Jack Riewoldt made adjustments to their games for the overall good of the team. Our leaders are a bit too selfish IMO and think their individual talent is enough to get success. Hopefully with age will come the maturity to deal with adversity better but we are fast running out of time.

 

[Ezayyak]

But there was a lot of feedback from track watchers and insiders at the start of the season that the coaches and players have never been more aligned. This “there is no light at the end of the tunnel” stuff seems like a very convenient excuse our the highly played so called “star” players. They haven’t even experienced half the disappointment some “successful” players from other clubs have. Being so close for so many years near the sounds like a first world problem comparatively but it’s equally soul destroying. This group got close to the summit once and it seems it was more through good luck than anything else. When the going gets tough the true leaders work even harder.

If the leaders have dropped their heads this year coz the situation has got the better of them then that’s on them. It is a highly competitive environment so it’s something they have to learn to deal with. Indeed the great leaders of the game past and current all thrive on it and will themselves to go the extra mile doing whatever is required of them to succeed. True leaders like Hodge, Selwood, Cotchin, Dangerfield and even blokes like Franklin, Cameron and Jack Riewoldt made adjustments to their games for the overall good of the team. Our leaders are a bit too selfish IMO and think their individual talent is enough to get success. Hopefully with age will come the maturity to deal with adversity better but we are fast running out of time.

No doubt there would have been an alignment and a belief at the start of the season. But as a player when your team is leading at half time in 8 or 9 of the first ten games and you get picked apart in the second half then your belief in the game plan starts to waiver. There is no doubt they were trying their darnest in the first half of the year. You don't lead at half time in almost every match if you're not.

But as a player., when you realise your system is been systemically pulled apart in the second half of every game doubts creep in. And like what has happened in pretty much every much since the GWS game last year. Our one wood has been completely nullified if it's effect and our primitive system of going inside 50 is easily countered.

Even more so, the best teams move the ball with brilliant patterns of ball movement and half the time they aren't looking at the player they are handballing it to because they know that their system means someone should be there. It is a complete shock to the system when we string together 3 or more handballs together.

 

[Soapy V]

No doubt there would have been an alignment and a belief at the start of the season. But as a player when your team is leading at half time in 8 or 9 of the first ten games and you get picked apart in the second half then your belief in the game plan starts to waiver. There is no doubt they were trying their darnest in the first half of the year. You don't lead at half time in almost every match if you're not.

But as a player., when you realise your system is been systemically pulled apart in the second half of every game doubts creep in. And like what has happened in pretty much every much since the GWS game last year. Our one wood has been completely nullified if it's effect and our primitive system of going inside 50 is easily countered.

Even more so, the best teams move the ball with brilliant patterns of ball movement and half the time they aren't looking at the player they are handballing it to because they know that their system means someone should be there. It is a complete shock to the system when we string together 3 or more handballs together.

Great post. Reality

 

[Beyond Blue]

We are only playing the kids because we can't make the 8. Think they would be playing if we were 11 / 7 instead of 7 /11?

This narrative that Voss doesn’t play youngsters is just bullshit. People keep talking about this like he is some sort of dinosaur when clearly he is not. He gave Cowan and Ollie round one debuts in their first season. HOK was straight in once he showed he was able to run games out. Lord got a game straight away. Lucas debuted round one this year. O’Farrell has played games in his first year. He plays them if he thinks they are physically and mentally ready. If they are not ready like Lemney, Moir, Binns and Wilson have shown that they are not, then they have rightly been made to earn their spots and build their game in the reserves. That’s called player development and that is hopefully why we are starting to see players make an impact when they come in.

A great example was when Wilson played his debut game he had full body cramps by the 3rd quarter and couldn’t continue. He clearly wasn’t ready despite a lot of so called ITKs carrying on pre season like he was the going to be a lock best 22 by the end of the year. The coaches rightly had been holding him back because of concerns on his fitness and only played him when there was literally no choice. Invariably Voss and the coaches have gotten it right every time on who is ready and who is not. Make sense that he and his coaches whose see the players every day and know their capabilities and limitations would be better informed than people who claim to know more coz they’ve watched a reserves game or occasionally seen a training session or two.

 

[Beyond Blue]

I prefer to watch a win than a loss- but that is just me I guess.

Me too but there are som e people on here who are so wedded to their anti Voss bullshit they cannot even allow themselves to enjoy a win. Shameful behaviour. Shouldn’t support the club if they feel that way.

 

[Soapy V]

I prefer to watch a win than a loss- but that is just me I guess.

Been through whole comments in game thread and haven’t seen or read one person that prefers to lose?

 

[Beyond Blue]

No doubt there would have been an alignment and a belief at the start of the season. But as a player when your team is leading at half time in 8 or 9 of the first ten games and you get picked apart in the second half then your belief in the game plan starts to waiver. There is no doubt they were trying their darnest in the first half of the year. You don't lead at half time in almost every match if you're not.

But as a player., when you realise your system is been systemically pulled apart in the second half of every game doubts creep in. And like what has happened in pretty much every much since the GWS game last year. Our one wood has been completely nullified if it's effect and our primitive system of going inside 50 is easily countered.

Even more so, the best teams move the ball with brilliant patterns of ball movement and half the time they aren't looking at the player they are handballing it to because they know that their system means someone should be there. It is a complete shock to the system when we string together 3 or more handballs together.

We’ve done this during the course of every game this year I reckon. The problem is we cannot do it often enough and it’s because of inability to execute skills when there is a little more pressure than normal. The Brisbane game was a clear example of this. We were trying to take the ball through the corridor but we made too many footpass or hand pass mistakes. Then there are moments where players go against orders and do their one thing. Ironically two of our leaders, Cripps and Curnow, are the worst examples of this. Cripps blows off blokes for a quick handball is space and bombs it long. Charlie still probably thinks he is cool to wheel around from 65-70 metres and kick the suitcase off the ball straight an opponent rather than lowering his eyes to hitting a short pass to teammate free inside 50.

Unsurprisingly last night both played better and we looked better when they did the team first things. It’s pretty clear they are breaking team orders as we’ve seen Voss’ reaction in the coaches box after brain fade moments. Our stars far too often try to put their Superman capes on rather than following instructions. That’s not good leadership. I think Weitering is a bit of bellwether. I’ve been critical of his body language in the past but it’s actually him reacting to players not following team orders. I think we should seriously think about taking the captaincy off Cripps. Either that or he needs to have Tent Cotchin like change in his attitude over the pre season. Charlie too needs to be way more disciplined. It can happen. Jack Riewoldt was impetuous too for a long time until he has started being team oriented.

 

[Gethelred]

Free kicks being paid in a flurry doesn't mean they are wrong. Same thing with free kicks that lead to goals. Did you have an issue with any specific free kicks at the start of Q4? On the rest of the game thought there were plenty of poor decisions both ways as is the case in most games nowadays.

The problem is that technically, all free kicks are probably there.

Take, for the sake of argument, a contact below the knees free kick. There was originally a rule - kicking in danger - to protect the person trying to get the ball from the person second to it. Then, they stopped paying that one if you were second to it, and players started being genuinely unconcerned about going off the deck in people's hands. To try and counter this, some began to slide in studs or shoulders first, to hit the contest so hard anyone putting their leg in the way did so at their own risk; this resulted in a series of graphic injuries to the leg and knees, so we have the contact below the knees free kick.

As a consequence, you have a situation in which one of three free kicks can get paid: two to one side, one to the other. You have kicking in danger, then you have tripping frees and contact below the knees. All three frees, equally valid, for opposite positions on the exact same contest, and completely without even bringing interpretation into it.

Then, consider the following: if umpires paid every single free they saw in a game, there would be more than 100 frees conceded a match. Umpiring is, therefore, a matter of discretion: which frees you pay, and when, and to whom. This had a few different effects: first, free kicks inherently become more valuable due to their nature as imposed turnovers within a game. The fewer frees there are, the more valuable those frees are. Second, there's equal value for a free kick within fifty to either side; a free kick to a forward means a shot on goal, and a free kick to a defender means a rebound 50 and denial of that shot to your opponent. Every time that whistle is blown, those are the risks and benefits. Thirdly, not all frees are weighted equally; some frees are infinitely more valuable than others. Holding the Ball should by rights fall into its own category these days, as it's interpreted differently depending on who does it - heaven help you if you're a defender and the ball gets knocked free in the tackle - and where it occurs. Oliver's HTB non call yesterday happened because he tackled a forward through midfield. He lays that tackle in the forward 50, he gets that call.

And finally, because the scarcity of frees makes them valuable, the amount and quality of the frees you get can absolutely play a role in the outcome of a game.

In this game, we didn't just receive frees in a flurry once but multiple times. We received 3 fifty metre penalties that were barely there. You take what you get, but affecting the pretense that this didn't happen simply isn't accurate, imo.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I'm not so pissed at Motts recent form, but there was a big stretch of form that didnt deserve rewarding, yet he (and Fog) have survived the axe and Durdin has been dropped almost immediately. It's BS.

That's fair. He's not alone in escaping the axe though. Plenty of big names getting by on reputation alone.

 

[slashin_velvet]

We need Geelong, Freo and Sydney to drop their bundle completely, while we go on a super hot streak - but mathematically, were a chance

The math just got a bit more complicated. We now need to get in on % with Geelong dropping a few by a huge margin, Freo not winning another match, and we win all of ours with a few huge wins. Gunna be tough if we stay defense first

 

[Burgers45]

Can I have some Moir Sir

MOIR

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Watching the replay.

Moir has a nice sidestep which gives him a that little bit of extra time and space (as Kirk would say )

 

[Blue since 72]

Moirs body shape seems to have changed in the last 6 weeks.

Might be my imagination but I was certain he looked much heavier at the start of the season.

Whatever he’s done, keep doing it.

And more on-ball time thanks . Looks comfy.

Thought exactly the same re his body, seems to have cut up quite well recently and yes he does look comfortable in the middle.

 

[blues4flag]

I'm not so pissed at Motts recent form, but there was a big stretch of form that didnt deserve rewarding, yet he (and Fog) have survived the axe and Durdin has been dropped almost immediately. It's BS.

Is his turnaround in form not an indication that the approach worked? For the most apart, his effort has been pretty solid but was also being asked to play primarily as a defensive half forward.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Watching the replay.

Moir has a nice sidestep which gives him a that little bit of extra time and space (as Kirk would say )

"to boldly go where no man has gone before" is what Kirk would say