Adelaide Crows 2021 List Management thread

Will the Crows pick up any of these players in the off-season?


  • Total voters
    77
  • Poll closed .

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Thetrader15

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So much depends on the draw when teams don't play the same teams twice.

I'd pencil in opportunities to win as (6):
North
Collingwood
GC
Hawks
Carlton
Saints

Scenario A is we double up against these teams, and get 11 wins.

Scenario B is we play all top 8 teams twice (Melb, Port, Geel, WB, Swans, Lions),and get 8 wins.

Which is the better season?
 

WaynesWorld19

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Age isn't the important number, it's experience

Our current 2022 list is the least experienced in the AFL.

Only twice in the last 10 years has the least experienced team finished outside the bottom 5
I agree .....
# under 10 games
# under 50 games
# Over 100 games ....and the age of those experienced players; are they 26 yo or 30 yo
 

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AFC979810

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11 wins as a benchmark? That's at the upper end of the most optimistic projections for 2022. There's no way that's a suitable benchmark.

6-8 wins is the benchmark. Anything more than that in 2022 is an absolute bonus.

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So you are expecting no improvement or possibly regression?

Based on cattle alone - we should automatically be better simply by replacing Lynch, Kelly, Talia and Dmack with Dawson, Crouch, Milera and Rochelle.

We were extremely young last year- but I would expect some significant improvement to our 15-45 game players (Schoenberg, Fog, Hately, Jones, McHenry, Berry, Scholl, Hammill, Butts).

Add in another preseason under Nicks and we should be aiming for 11 wins.
 

GROTTO

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8 wins is the line for me.

If we can do that or better, it will be looking very optimistic.

With that I would like us to also have competitive losses where we are still a chance to win it for most games.
Under Nicks our average losing margin drop by goal in 2021 compared to 2020.

A couple of top 8 scalps in those 8 wins too would be great, like we did in 2020, Cats and Dees.
 

adelaidecrows

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Everyone else around us has improved their list too though
Thats a bit cynical. If we can't constantly show improvement with a young list the list has issues. That why if we don't win 10 games I say some questions on our drafting and trading strategies need to be asked. I'm not saying make finals but we should be able to show we are more than competitive in most matches against every team.

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Vader

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So you are expecting no improvement or possibly regression?

Based on cattle alone - we should automatically be better simply by replacing Lynch, Kelly, Talia and Dmack with Dawson, Crouch, Milera and Rochelle.

We were extremely young last year- but I would expect some significant improvement to our 15-45 game players (Schoenberg, Fog, Hately, Jones, McHenry, Berry, Scholl, Hammill, Butts).

Add in another preseason under Nicks and we should be aiming for 11 wins.
I expect little change. Our success this year wasn't driven by the youngsters - it was driven by our senior players, most notably Tex & Seed.

Tex will be MIA for the first 3 games, and who knows what his form will be after he returns. He started 2021 in a blaze of glory, helped by the introduction of the "stand" rule, which provided an early boost to forwards throughout the competition. His form regressed to the mean, as the season progressed, once the clubs figured out how to work around the "stand" rule.

Seed had a career best season, at the age of 29. It's possible that he will replicate that form in 2022, but you wouldn't want to bank on it.

Butts (all season), Sholl (early) and Schoenberg (late) were the only youngsters to really make a significant impression in 2021

I expect to see deterioration in the performances of Sloane, Tex & Seed. I hope to see the youngsters starting to pick up the slack, because we can't rely on the likes of Laird/Keays/Sloane to do all the work in the centre. That's not sustainable.

As I see it, our progress in 2022 is likely to be "one step forward, one step back". We're headed in the right direction, for the first time in a long time - but progress is unlikely to be linear. We will have a very young team & inexperienced team in 2022, and expecting them to improve on a surprisingly good 2021 result is a big ask.
 

adelaidecrows

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I expect little change. Our success this year wasn't driven by the youngsters - it was driven by our senior players, most notably Tex & Seed.

Tex will be MIA for the first 3 games, and who knows what his form will be after he returns. He started 2021 in a blaze of glory, helped by the introduction of the "stand" rule, which provided an early boost to forwards throughout the competition. His form regressed to the mean, as the season progressed, once the clubs figured out how to work around the "stand" rule.

Seed had a career best season, at the age of 29. It's possible that he will replicate that form in 2022, but you wouldn't want to bank on it.

Butts (all season), Sholl (early) and Schoenberg (late) were the only youngsters to really make a significant impression in 2021

I expect to see deterioration in the performances of Sloane, Tex & Seed. I hope to see the youngsters starting to pick up the slack, because we can't rely on the likes of Laird/Keays/Sloane to do all the work in the centre. That's not sustainable.

As I see it, our progress in 2022 is likely to be "one step forward, one step back". We're headed in the right direction, for the first time in a long time - but progress is unlikely to be linear. We will have a very young team & inexperienced team in 2022, and expecting them to improve on a surprisingly good 2021 result is a big ask.
Its hard to predict but at some point our next generation must take over. We have plenty of guys on our list now who have played enough games to take the next step.

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Scorpus

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Thats a bit cynical. If we can't constantly show improvement with a young list the list has issues. That why if we don't win 10 games I say some questions on our drafting and trading strategies need to be asked. I'm not saying make finals but we should be able to show we are more than competitive in most matches against every team.

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Improving doesn't have to come in the form of wins. There are many areas of our game that need improvement. Becoming more competitive for longer periods within a game I would consider as improvement even if we don't actually win more games across the year.

The simple reality is that we aren't the only team that is improving. A lot of the time, when teams expect to just win more games the following year because they are now "better", they forget that other teams are doing the exact same thing. There are only so many wins you can get, and if we are winning more, another team has to be losing more.

There will be a time when we rapidly get better and accelerate beyond other teams, some of which will be coming down the ladder, etc. But when you have an extremely inexperienced list and other teams around us are in a similar position, I just don't see a significant increase in wins
 
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There's a chance we go backwards and still improve

Eg running a deeper midfield would initially lead to a drop off you'd think as more and younger players are exposed to that part of the ground.

A Laird, Sloane, Crouch, Keays permanent centre square combo would lead to some competitive results, keep losses small, make us (the club) think that we are on track.

Mixing in Schoenberg, Pedlar, McHenry, Berry for significant minutes could lead to some inconsistent performances.

However by running with the latter we would be closer to becoming a good team again.
 

jo172

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There's a chance we go backwards and still improve

Eg running a deeper midfield would initially lead to a drop off you'd think as more and younger players are exposed to that part of the ground.

A Laird, Sloane, Crouch, Keays permanent centre square combo would lead to some competitive results, keep losses small, make us (the club) think that we are on track.

Mixing in Schoenberg, Pedlar, McHenry, Berry for significant minutes could lead to some inconsistent performances.

However by running with the latter we would be closer to becoming a good team again.

I agree, feels very much a potential take one step backwards to take two steps forward kind of year.
 

Mutineer

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That's a very odd and narrow take.
I guess it gets down to who you class as youngsters, McHenry and Jones fit that category with me and both made significant headway IMO.
Thilthorpe also showed encouraging signs and Cook considering his "managed" pre-season and late involvement in South Adelaide's elite junior system showed more than enough.
 

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George Kramer

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I guess it gets down to who you class as youngsters, McHenry and Jones fit that category with me and both made significant headway IMO.
Thilthorpe also showed encouraging signs and Cook considering his "managed" pre-season and late involvement in South Adelaide's elite junior system showed more than enough.
Throw in McPherson late who after stinking it up finished the year strong.

We need to see Hamill come on, hopefully the concussions are done with. Sholl needs to get his mojo back. Worrell to get a decent run.

Then hope to see Pedlar get more consistent game time.

Rachelle is a lock I think to be given every opportunity. The other draftees are going to have to fight for their opportunities which will be rare I believe unless one has a blinder of a preseason and season. I'd be backing in Taylor to be that chance.
 
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Thetrader15

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So from last year's "best" team;

Out: Kelly, Lynch, Mackay
In: Dawson, Rachele, Milera, Crouch

Yes, most teams will have organic growth, as we will, but the above changes are more than just organic growth.

So performance wise, we should get better, but it'll all depend on the fixture as to the W:L ratio.
 

DJ75

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So from last year's "best" team;

Out: Kelly, Lynch, Mackay
In: Dawson, Rachele, Milera, Crouch

Yes, most teams will have organic growth, as we will, but the above changes are more than just organic growth.

So performance wise, we should get better, but it'll all depend on the fixture as to the W:L ratio.
I'm not expecting much from Milera or Crouch. Both are going to take time to get to their best, or even to be influential in a game. I see them as 'bonus' players. Don't factor them in and if they do come through and are ready to play, then it is a nice bonus, but not something I'm banking on.
 

GrommoT

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There's a chance we go backwards and still improve

Eg running a deeper midfield would initially lead to a drop off you'd think as more and younger players are exposed to that part of the ground.

A Laird, Sloane, Crouch, Keays permanent centre square combo would lead to some competitive results, keep losses small, make us (the club) think that we are on track.

Mixing in Schoenberg, Pedlar, McHenry, Berry for significant minutes could lead to some inconsistent performances.

However by running with the latter we would be closer to becoming a good team again.
True but the deeper midfield will be made up of what we had this year but improved - with some newbies added.

Reckon it's time to put Schoenberg into the Laird, Sloane, Crouch, Keays group when talking players selected and we can add Dawson there as a cherry ripe, ready to go midfielder.

Then we have Ned, Berry (who hopefully has gotten over his injury niggles and with another preseason) - ditto Peddles (though maybe a few steps behind), Jones maybe? We can then inject the newbies for a stint here and there when they're fit enough.

This is all contingent on not getting a worse than normal run with injuries.
 

70lethal

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Oct 26, 2016
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So you are expecting no improvement or possibly regression?

Based on cattle alone - we should automatically be better simply by replacing Lynch, Kelly, Talia and Dmack with Dawson, Crouch, Milera and Rochelle.

We were extremely young last year- but I would expect some significant improvement to our 15-45 game players (Schoenberg, Fog, Hately, Jones, McHenry, Berry, Scholl, Hammill, Butts).

Add in another preseason under Nicks and we should be aiming for 11 wins.
Our list is even younger this year.
To get to 11 wins we would need to improve our percentage by 20% approx or 3 goals per game and we would be knocking at the 8 which I think is a big ask.

We averaged 90 points against this year and only Carlton and NM gave up more points. If we can reduce it by 1 goal per game we compare with clubs 9-12.

We averaged 73 points for and only 4 teams scored less than us being Freo, GC, Coll, NM. Adding 1 goal a game puts us with teams 9-13

Realistically a 2 goal improvement which shifts our percentage from 82 to approx 95 which is usually 8 - 10 wins is significant for the youngest team.

Not having Doedee as our 2nd tall will help.
Murray's 10 games we average 21% more against. We should see significant improvement from our 2nd KPD whoever it is making a difference.
Strangely the only teams he played against who weren't top 8 were Eagles and Richmond who probably have the best 2nd talls. Baptism of fire.

Our defence improved all things considered against the teams we played twice which to me is a real positive.
Kanga's -14 points
Power -32 points
Demons +10 points
Hawks -19 points
Eagles -8 points

We have only 2 guys who have kicked over 100 goals in their career and 5 have kicked over 50 goals. 4 of them are over 30 (Smith, Sloane, Seedsman, Walker).

7 games we scored under 60 points including a 21, 38, 39

Kicking winning scores consistently will be the challenge

Tex average 1 goal per game more than he has in the past 3 years and he misses the 1st 3 weeks so highly unlikely he improves on last year.

Fogarty and McAdam doubled their ave last year and TT did what few have by averaging over a 1 goal a game in their 1st year on a list.

Ideally we need to ave 7.5 goals a game between them if they all play together (ave 7.28 between them last year)
Tex, Fogs, TT, McAdam (none played more than 17 games last year) so getting 22 games would make a difference.

Ideally ave 2 goals a game between small forwards whoever they are (ave 2 last year)
McHenry, Rowe, Rachele, Murphy

Ideally ave 2.5 goals a game between midfielders (ave 1.86 last year) Inclusion of Dawson makes this achievable imo.
Dawson, Seedsman, Sloane, Schoenberg, Keays, Pedlar, Laird

A reasonable draw playing a few of GC, NM, Saints, Hawks, Coll twice would help
 

70lethal

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So from last year's "best" team;

Out: Kelly, Lynch, Mackay
In: Dawson, Rachele, Milera, Crouch

Yes, most teams will have organic growth, as we will, but the above changes are more than just organic growth.

So performance wise, we should get better, but it'll all depend on the fixture as to the W:L ratio.
That's not allowing any injuries over the next 4 months to any key players.
 

Ciao Giacomo

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The average age/games played of our SQUAD is “interesting” but the key stats are the age/experience of the TEAM we put on the field.

In 2021 there were more than 300 games played by our players with less than 50 games experience. This was almost double the average for the other 17 teams and nearly 30% higher than the second highest team.

At the start of 2021 we only had 12 players with 50+ games. With major injuries to Talia, Crouch, Milera and Lynch, it was inevitable that we would have very inexperienced teams.

Murphy, Keays, Doedee and O’Brien crossed the 50 game mark in 2021 plus we picked up Dawson. We have lost Talia, Mackay, Lynch and Kelly so we kick off with thirteen 50+ game players and 31 players at 0 - 49 games.

We will be fielding very inexperienced teams in 2022.
 
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Pilchard_Adams

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Everyone else around us has improved their list too though
I'd say everyone else has adjusted their list. Not all improve each year.

Our situation is unique and quite new to our club. The youth is 1 year more experienced, 1 preseason fitter. And we are adding an AA mid in Crouch, adding Dawson, and fingers crossed adding a fit Milera. I can't see us treading water this year, feel improvement is on the cards.
 

Golumless

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I'd say everyone else has adjusted their list. Not all improve each year.

Our situation is unique and quite new to our club. The youth is 1 year more experienced, 1 preseason fitter. And we are adding an AA mid in Crouch, adding Dawson, and fingers crossed adding a fit Milera. I can't see us treading water this year, feel improvement is on the cards.

That's much better. Like you can't argue a team like Gold Coast improved this offseason. Even Collingwood and Hawthorn are a stretch for 2022 even though both did improve their long term prospects with their draft hauls.

We've definitely improved, at least on paper due to Dawson. North seems likely to have as well out of the bottom 4, seeing Greenwood is a great acquisition.