List Mgmt. Adelaide Crows 2021 List Management thread

[Danger in Texas]

Let's say we got pick 6, and let's say for some reason Matt Crouch got offered $700k (yes, I know) - using pick 6 and 7 or using pick 1 is a difficult decision, if that was offered.

I see your idea, but I refuse to even look down that rabbit hole again haha

It really is a confusing world when Mitch McGovern gets offered by an opposition club more than Brad does

 

[Crow till I die]

I see your idea, but I refuse to even look down that rabbit hole again haha

It really is a confusing world when Mitch McGovern gets offered by an opposition club more than Brad does

It was a shame Carlton were not in the market for Brad last year..based on what they have been paying Brad would likely have become a million dollar per year player..and pick 2 would have been a shoe in for us

 

[Bearded Clam]

Let's say we got pick 6, and let's say for some reason Matt Crouch got offered $700k (yes, I know) - using pick 6 and 7 or using pick 1 is a difficult decision, if that was offered.

Matt crouch could get offered $800k a year and we still wouldnt get a pick directly after our first for him.

the melbourne media will poo poo the idea and the AFL will go along with it.

its all about the “optics” of it they’ll say.. “matt isnt worth a high first round pick”.. “it isnt fair on the clubs with picks just after the crows”, blah, blah, blah.

The hatred of the crows goes back to the state of origin and they have always seen us as the SA state team.

the whole system is a joke and is run based on what the Victorians/VFL want.

 

[maxlilly]

We are well on our way to getting rid of the vast majority of players from the 2017 grand final

Atkins
Betts
Brown - signed to end of 2023
Cameron
B. Crouch
M. Crouch - out of contract
Douglas
Greenwood
Hartigan
Jacobs
Jenkins
Kelly - out of contract
Knight
Laird - signed to end of 2026
Lever
Lynch - out of contract
Mackay - out of contract
Otten
Seedsman - out of contract
Sloane - signed to end of 2023
Talia - out of contract
Walker - out of contract

We have a very good chance of completing the job within the next couple of years

From that list and comments made in interviews this year, I think Lynch, Mackay and Talia wont be on our list next year.
And I am 50/50 on whether Mrouch will be here also.
I think Walker may get a one year deal though
Not sure on Kelly but think he may get another contract with us.

 

[skam85]

Here's my hope. A trade with the Bulldogs.

McAsey and 34 for Lipinski and 18.

The Bulldogs get a 20 year old pick 6 key defender for Lipinski and a 16 spot downgrade.

That's nice and all but I doubt the Bulldogs would do a double downgrade.

 

[Mego Red]

That's nice and all but I doubt the Bulldogs would do a double downgrade.

... is that humour? You're saying you reckon the Bulldogs would consider McAsey a downgrade?

 

[MRB37]

That's nice and all but I doubt the Bulldogs would do a double downgrade.

Doubt the Bulldogs would even offer us Lipinski for McAsey, let alone doing a pick downgrade with it.

 

[Mutineer]

Doubt the Bulldogs would even offer us Lipinski for McAsey, let alone doing a pick downgrade with it.

And why a clearly underperforming McAsey over this year's top KPD draft prospects Rhett Bazzo and Josh Gibcus etc?

 

[WeedsMullet84]

Thanks. Good to be back.

Yeah. It's harsh. I actually really like the guy - and I'd love to have him. I just think when you're looking at these kinds of things - and who you'd burn a high pick on, you're looking for complete players and difference makers. I'm not sure he's complete. He's a wonderful kick, but that aside - what else does he have that's above average? Tank maybe? He's not competitive or contested enough to play forward like he was drafted to do, and that lack of physicality makes playing defense hard - there's a very limited kind of forward he's a >okay matchup on. So he's left on a wing/playing loose. They're very rarely the difference makers.

There's certainly scope for him to be a lot more - but it's not a lock. Right now he's Jack Watts with a little more ticker. And Jack Watts never really improved once he reached the 'designated kicker/loose man and nothing more' role that Luko's found himself in. Sholl does a lot of what Lukosius does - but gets more of it and works harder (obviously his aerial/intercept capacity isn't as high, but Lukosius's intercept numbers are mediocre anyway)



Oh yeah, of course. In an ideal world Jones is Butters and we keep Sholl at 64. I just think a blunder is fine if you offset it. It's hard to pin busts on recruiters - it's a game of projection. You hit and you miss. As long as the process is fine, you back yourself to hit more than you miss. But plenty of top 10 players end up duds. And it's probably not the system they're drafted into that breaks them - they just don't grow. I don't think Jones would have been much better at another club. It's just unlucky that he seems to have stalled at 19.

The concern I have (and you touch on it with McAsey) is that the process is wrong. I can't the Chayce pick and the buzzwords used to describe him afterwards. Likewise the McHenry pick. I can't shake the McAsey pick - it feels like we identified KPD as a need, and just went for the one that was near enough to the range. And I can't shake the local flavour to our last draft following our retention issues.

If external factors interfere with your pure talent order, you're condemning yourself to mediocrity. You don't get ahead of 17 other sides by 'effectively' downgrading your pick 6 to a player valued around pick 10-12 (McAsey) and not pocketing the change. You pick the best available and you back your system in to retain and you back your list management team in to shuffle the pieces around and tinker accordingly to make that talent into a cohesive 22. Had we picked on consensus we probably end up with some combination of Butters/Caldwell, Duursma and Young/Serong. But we picked early on needs and this weird obsession with players appearing tenacious.

Wow. Some well-thought out insights here. Might ruffle a few feathers on this board, it's become increasingly cynical to say the least.

My own thoughts are that the McAsey pick, in conjunction with the downgrade of our pick to 6 and getting the GWS 2020 1st rounder, was right at that time, and there's plenty of water to go under the bridge in terms of his development if he does intend to stay.

I also get the feeling that the club going for 'local flavour' in 2020 was somewhat deliberate, but also kind of where the chips landed on the night (or predetermined in the case of our NGA players). Thilthorpe and Pedlar were taken around the right mark, by all accounts, and filled a need for us. Berry looks to be a fantastic interstate pickup, and we worked up to get Brayden Cook (we were obviously surprised both he and Rowe were still on the board at their picks)

What's your thoughts on where Fog is at?

 

[WeedsMullet84]

And why a clearly underperforming McAsey over this year's top KPD draft prospects Rhett Bazzo and Josh Gibcus etc?

Surely a few years of development for McAsey, however disjointed and underwhelming some believe it's been, would be preferable to a club than a kid fresh out of the local leagues.

 

[skam85]

... is that humour? You're saying you reckon the Bulldogs would consider McAsey a downgrade?

About as humorous as the suggestion that the Dogs will give us a first rounder and a young player for him.

 

[cleanhands]

Doubt the Bulldogs would even offer us Lipinski for McAsey, let alone doing a pick downgrade with it.

More likely to offer up a Mitch Wallis

 

[Mutineer]

Surely a few years of development for McAsey, however disjointed and underwhelming some believe it's been, would be preferable to a club than a kid fresh out of the local leagues.

We'll know more form/development wise by the season's end/National Draft but I have to say the smoke signals coming from over the Grampians way aren't looking too promising. I think it's also worth giving McAsey a shot up forward at this juncture where his opponent will have to worry about him as opposed to McAsey having to worry about his opponent.

It's obvious we drafted McAsey as Talia's replacement but unless he starts to show some real improvement down back what's to lose by swinging him forward at this point and it may just improve his trade value when he bails on us.?

 

[Mego Red]

And why a clearly underperforming McAsey over this year's top KPD draft prospects Rhett Bazzo and Josh Gibcus etc?

Neither of those kids have achieved in NAB what McAsey achieved.

If you compare apples to apples, McAsey shits on them.

 

[Mego Red]

About as humorous as the suggestion that the Dogs will give us a first rounder and a young player for him.

Lipinski is a 23 year old small who can't get a game at the Western Bulldogs.

They were upgrading our pick and giving up a player outside their best 22 for a pick 6 tall who was the best key defender in his draft class and only two years into his career.

Maybe they say no, but you'd have to be an absolute deadshit to not see that there's some value in it for them.

 

[Mego Red]

More likely to offer up a Mitch Wallis

There's no way the Bulldogs would want to insult us with an offer like that. That's just rude.

 

[Mutineer]

Neither of those kids have achieved in NAB what McAsey achieved.

If you compare apples to apples, McAsey shits on them.

Fair go especially with Gibcus he never played as a 17 year old, he's in the AFL Academy with Rhett Blazzo and both will play in the upcoming Academy team that plays Geelong's VFL team as part of their development on the weekend and unless a KPD's comes from the clouds they'll be representing Vic Country and WA respectively at the Nationals. Put McAsey at the same stage in his draft year if you're comparing apples with apples.

 

[Mutineer]

Lipinski is a 23 year old small who can't get a game at the Western Bulldogs.

They were upgrading our pick and giving up a player outside their best 22 for a pick 6 tall who was the best key defender in his draft class and only two years into his career.

Maybe they say no, but you'd have to be an absolute deadshit to not see that there's some value in it for them.

Rubbish...

You missed 2 years into a totally underwhelming career on McAsey's part.

Lipinski's a very good young midfielder/forward (187cm 84kg) caught in a log jam behind a ridiculously stacked Bulldogs midfield and so is Mitch Wallis albeit older for that matter. Maybe I am a deadshit too but you're not living in the here and now clearly.

 

[Scorpus]

What about Ed Richards

20

Ed Richards

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.7

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.3

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.2

2star

instead of Lipinski?

 

[Danger in Texas]

What about Ed Richards instead of Lipinski?

Think he’s injured right now, which explains why he hasn’t played this season. Even then, does he fit into that Bulldogs best 22 when he returns?

If he can’t get a game consistently once he returns, I’d take a look at him. Need a young, speedy wingman like him

 

[Skippos]

Wow. Some well-thought out insights here. Might ruffle a few feathers on this board, it's become increasingly cynical to say the least.

My own thoughts are that the McAsey pick, in conjunction with the downgrade of our pick to 6 and getting the GWS 2020 1st rounder, was right at that time, and there's plenty of water to go under the bridge in terms of his development if he does intend to stay.

I also get the feeling that the club going for 'local flavour' in 2020 was somewhat deliberate, but also kind of where the chips landed on the night (or predetermined in the case of our NGA players). Thilthorpe and Pedlar were taken around the right mark, by all accounts, and filled a need for us. Berry looks to be a fantastic interstate pickup, and we worked up to get Brayden Cook (we were obviously surprised both he and Rowe were still on the board at their picks)

What's your thoughts on where Fog is at?

McAsey might have been right at the time (I thought it was a 5-10 pick reach - I didn't see standout qualities in McAsey that top 10 KPDs seem to have had) but even if he was, right now it's looking grim. It could certainly be that he's mentally checked out, or just an extremely slow burn, but the bust probability is much higher now than we'd have thought 18 months ago.

I'd probably have gone McDonald over TT, but plenty to go under the bridge there, Riley was always going to be a slower burn than Logan so none of their trajectory so far is surprising. Pedlar is interesting - hard to judge it due to not much exposed, but I hope it was the right pick. Young Tom Powell looks extraordinary so far for North - that kind of awareness and feel for the game is so rare in a first year player. So given his trajectory, there will probably always be scrutiny over the Pedlar pick. Cook and Berry look to be great selections.

Fogarty is interesting. I can't work out why it hasn't come together for him. He's a lovely kick and efficient with his opportunities. He's addressed the endurance question. I think he's competitive - which is probably the most important thing in forwards for me. And it's not coming together still. Is it a forward craft/footy IQ thing? He looks a bit lost on ball. Lack of athleticism and IQ are probably what's doing him in at the moment.

I really want him to come good, but I'm line ball at the moment. That he isn't a pressure option doesn't help either. He could probably be a 30-35 goal a season forward for us going forward, but is that acceptable given he's offering very little on the defensive front, doesn't ruck & doesn't do much apart from sharp shoot? I'd probably prefer a 35 goal 'complete' forward who's offering defensive, work up the ground, repeat efforts etc. than a 50 goal a season deadeye who scores 3 goals from 6 touches.

 

[Skippos]

Rubbish...

You missed 2 years into a totally underwhelming career on McAsey's part.

Lipinski's a very good young midfielder/forward (187cm 84kg) caught in a log jam behind a ridiculously stacked Bulldogs midfield and so is Mitch Wallis albeit older for that matter. Maybe I am a deadshit too but you're not living in the here and now clearly.

With you here. Lipinski's great. There's just not a role for him with the depth of the Bulldogs midfield - and he does have some deficiencies that they don't need to carry when they're this complete as a unit.

But jeez, you want the ball in his hands. There's a role for him in 15/16 afl teams either on a wing or a forward flank pushing up as the extra around the ball. He'd improve our team out of sight.

Think he’s injured right now, which explains why he hasn’t played this season. Even then, does he fit into that Bulldogs best 22 when he returns?

If he can’t get a game consistently once he returns, I’d take a look at him. Need a young, speedy wingman like him

Scott and McNeil have been playing the role they wanted Richards to play, I suspect. But there are deficiencies. A complete lack of composure with ball in hand one of them - poor patterns another. He'd be bloody frustrating to have based on what we've seen. But the scope is there with him still. Been hard for him having been thrown all over the ground.

I think his best footy is behind the ball, especially with these new rules. More in front of him, less to panic about. And much easier to run from half back, less importance on IQ/patterns. Do we have a need for that? Probably not.

 

[Redline]

To be honest, I'd be perfectly happy with drafting in a couple of 25 year olds to help strengthen our SANFL team. They get a pay bump, exposure and a chance to stay on the list and our juniors don't get crucified in a shithouse developmental side.

I don't disagree entirely but it is still an investment that's more than just money. It's a big effort to get them to the fitness level and also understanding the strategy.

I agree I don't see much point picking up another junior unless we really rate them but I think if we pick up a mature ager we should draft them because it's a need and we think they are up to AFL standard.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

McAsey might have been right at the time (I thought it was a 5-10 pick reach - I didn't see standout qualities in McAsey that top 10 KPDs seem to have had) but even if he was, right now it's looking grim. It could certainly be that he's mentally checked out, or just an extremely slow burn, but the bust probability is much higher now than we'd have thought 18 months ago.

I'd probably have gone McDonald over TT, but plenty to go under the bridge there, Riley was always going to be a slower burn than Logan so none of their trajectory so far is surprising. Pedlar is interesting - hard to judge it due to not much exposed, but I hope it was the right pick. Young Tom Powell looks extraordinary so far for North - that kind of awareness and feel for the game is so rare in a first year player. So given his trajectory, there will probably always be scrutiny over the Pedlar pick. Cook and Berry look to be great selections.

Fogarty is interesting. I can't work out why it hasn't come together for him. He's a lovely kick and efficient with his opportunities. He's addressed the endurance question. I think he's competitive - which is probably the most important thing in forwards for me. And it's not coming together still. Is it a forward craft/footy IQ thing? He looks a bit lost on ball. Lack of athleticism and IQ are probably what's doing him in at the moment.

I really want him to come good, but I'm line ball at the moment. That he isn't a pressure option doesn't help either. He could probably be a 30-35 goal a season forward for us going forward, but is that acceptable given he's offering very little on the defensive front, doesn't ruck & doesn't do much apart from sharp shoot? I'd probably prefer a 35 goal 'complete' forward who's offering defensive, work up the ground, repeat efforts etc. than a 50 goal a season deadeye who scores 3 goals from 6 touches.

Fogarty needs to be given a decent block of games to come up to speed with fitting into the AFL side/working out his role.

 

[Mego Red]

Rubbish...

You missed 2 years into a totally underwhelming career on McAsey's part.

Lipinski's a very good young midfielder/forward (187cm 84kg) caught in a log jam behind a ridiculously stacked Bulldogs midfield and so is Mitch Wallis albeit older for that matter. Maybe I am a deadshit too but you're not living in the here and now clearly.

Of course it's not rubbish.

McAsey has had a COVID year and four games.

Any realistic football observer would know he's done about all you could expect from a teenage tall defender. His development is tracking exactly as would be expected.

He loses some value if he walks out of the club, absolutely. But people are speaking like he's a bust, which is ridiculous.