AFL Futures 2012

[Angus Young]

Does anyone else think that Collingwood are value at 3.40 for top Victorian side?
have them beating Geelong, GWS, St kilda, North
Think they should beat Sydney (Have had the wood over them in recent times)
Think they should Beat Essendon and are a chance against WCE/Hawks

So I have them at a best case scenario 18-4
Worst case in my opinion is they lose another 3 and are 16-6

The favourite for this bet, the Hawks I have beating
Bulldogs, Port, Gold Coast
Think they should beat WCE as its at the MCG
Geelong have had the wood over them recently (all streaks eventually end though)
The Essendon/Collingwood games look 50/50 but they will be without Buddy and I cant see them winning more then one of the two
The sydney game I think is 60/40 in the swans favour
So in My opinion the best case scenario is winning 7 games, definately no more then 8

Would put them at 17-5
or worst case in my opinion would be losing another 4
and being 14-8

Might be better to wait until after this round but before the tough patch of 3 games for the hawks
Am i underrating Hawthorn or overrating the pies?
just think 3.40 is value when it will in all likelyhood come down to the pies/hawks game

these bets include the finals

 

[Angus Young]

4.75 for Freo to make the eight, about to load up at those odds...Lyon's gameplan is starting to click, injured players starting to return and a very soft draw...

problem is freo have a s**t percentage and it really wont sky rocket. Therefore for them to make the 8 they would have to win more games than geelong, carlton, richmond, st kilda and north melbourne.

freo and north melbourne have EASY draws

 

[TheNextBigThing]

North should beat Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and GWS to give them 11 wins, meaning they would have to win 2 of the games against Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond and Essendon. You can pretty much put Collingwood down as a loss meaning we will have to win 2 of the other 3.

 

[twarby]

these bets include the finals

get your facts right Angus

 

[Angus Young]

get your facts right Angus

LOL...ok sorry I was looking on sportsbet

 

[Athomas]

Essendon to miss The 8 @ $5.50 (Centre/Sporting)

Thank me later. Need to win 3 of last 8 and I simply don't think they do.

 

[Youdy]

problem is freo have a s**t percentage and it really wont sky rocket. Therefore for them to make the 8 they would have to win more games than geelong, carlton, richmond, st kilda and north melbourne.

freo and north melbourne have EASY draws

Assuming you dont mean freo have an easy draw?
I have all of these teams finishing between 10-13 wins
I agree can't see freo getting more then 13 wins in a best case scenario
Would need other results to go there way majorly

Having a look at the draw
If a team has to come out of the 4 for hawthorn I think it will be whoever loses this week out of WCE and Sydney
Adelaide have a very soft draw, Cant see them on less then 17 wins
Worth a bet for minor premier and highest interstate team?
And any interest in collingwood to come top 4 at 1.85?

 

[d3ft]

Essendon to miss The 8 @ $5.50 (Centre/Sporting)

Thank me later. Need to win 3 of last 8 and I simply don't think they do.

After reviewing the remaining draw I think this is much better value than Freo to make the 8.

 

[Angus Young]

After reviewing the remaining draw I think this is much better value than Freo to make the 8.

agree...they have a tough run...

 

[Angus Young]

Having a look at the draw
If a team has to come out of the 4 for hawthorn I think it will be whoever loses this week out of WCE and Sydney
Adelaide have a very soft draw, Cant see them on less then 17 wins
Worth a bet for minor premier and highest interstate team?
And any interest in collingwood to come top 4 at 1.85?

agree...wce v sydney is huge.

 

[madpunter]

I'm backing Collingwood for top spot at $11.00 this morning, I think it should be half that price.

Sydney have come in from $6.00 to $2.00 for top spot, in the space of a week. West Coast have gone from $5.00 to $26.00. Market well and truly over-reacting.

Collingwood level on wins with Sydney, though significantly behind on %. They play in 3 weeks or so at ANZ stadium. That match could decide top spot. $11.00 will be a pretty big price, and $2.00 pretty small, if Collingwood win that one.

 

[KardiniaPark]

They also have WC in Perth and HAW that they would need to beat to finish top. You could probably just all up their next 6 games and get better than $11, with their percentage they probably need to win them all. Adelaide have a pretty easy draw too don't they?

 

[madpunter]

They also have WC in Perth and HAW that they would need to beat to finish top. You could probably just all up their next 6 games and get better than $11, with their percentage they probably need to win them all. Adelaide have a pretty easy draw too don't they?

They don't have to win them all to finish top, they could drop one of the Hawthorn / West Coast matches, beat Sydney, and still get top, because it's unlikely that either Hawthorn or West Coast will win all of their remaining matches. Collingwood are 1 game ahead of those clubs at the moment.

Adelaide have a very good draw, and should be shorter than Collingwood for top, agreed. But Collingwood should be 3rd favourite for it, at about $5.00, and are too long at $11.

Part of the reason why is because the bookmakers have taken a lot for Hawthorn before the year, and during, and so they've been kept very safe throughout the year.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Yeah, I just think its too hard to know what's going on with the top 4 at the moment. I would assume it would be one of Hawthorn or Collingwood.

 

[Hellboy101]

Have a free bet and looking for advice - Am thinking crows to win the minor premiership at 3.40. Think they only lose to the cats at Simonds. Thoughts

 

[eastcoastcrow]

Have a free bet and looking for advice - Am thinking crows to win the minor premiership at 3.40. Think they only lose to the cats at Simonds. Thoughts

Anyways they are some chance I had taken the Pies 1u @ $11

I also had taken the Crows 1u @ $3.75

I do think the game against the Cats is the only game they will drop too.

 

[X_box_X]

IAS have their final eight market out of whack.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

No they don't, that's their prices to miss the final 8. That website is picking up the wrong feed.

 

[Lensen]

nah its reading the "to miss top 8" odds instead

 

[Athomas]

Essendon to miss The 8 @ $5.50 (Centre/Sporting)

Thank me later. Need to win 3 of last 8 and I simply don't think they do.

Shortened a bit.

Need to win 2/6 of Richmond, Carlton, North, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide (AAMI)

I still think they only win 1 (Richmond)

 

[Maveric]

Shortened a bit.

Need to win 2/6 of Richmond, Carlton, North, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Adelaide (AAMI)

I still think they only win 1 (Richmond)

Would have them around 50/50 in the next three games and then the last three will be hard. Still at the odds they are at, playing the way they are it could be worth a crack.

 

[Manila_Playa87]

Collingwood have ballooned out to $6 for top Victorian team. That is a steal. Also top 4 still $1.75

 

[Lensen]

my initial thought was that you are crazy but looking at the draw, I can see Hawthorn losing two (Geelong & Sydney) but the Pies only one (West Coast)

not bad

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sydney will not get near Hawthorn! I don't think either Hawthorn or Collingwood will lose another game. West Coast have dropped off with all their injuries and aren't the threat they promised to be 8 weeks ago.

 

[The Big Woofer]

some interesting prices in the Coleman Medal race, Buddy is still very short @ $2 given there's speculation he would play next week as well, he would then only need a couple of inaccurate days to have a few others build a handy lead on him.

Not sure how you can be so confident Syd won't get near Haw @ the smaller SCG, the Swans will surely put haw under a lot more pressure than they have faced of late & there game style held up well againt them last time (albeit a while ago now).