Analysis AFL vs NRL in Qld

[Cleric]

I am surprised to see that the popularity of AFL in Qld is so close to NRL. AFL is nearing a 50/50 split with NRL as far as popularity goes.
For instance, there are more registered AFL players (over 120,000) than NRL players (98,000) in Qld.

The average TV audience for an AFL game is 397,000, while the GF had 456,000, while the NRL GF had 567,000 viewers in Qld.

While the NRL has a slight advantage, the AFL is absolutely getting closer to it year after year.

Does this seem to be true on the ground in Qld?

 

[CarterS]

I am surprised to see that the popularity of AFL in Qld is so close to NRL. AFL is nearing a 50/50 split with NRL as far as popularity goes.
For instance, there are more registered AFL players (over 120,000) than NRL players (98,000) in Qld.

The average TV audience for an AFL game is 397,000, while the GF had 456,000, while the NRL GF had 567,000 viewers in Qld.

While the NRL has a slight advantage, the AFL is absolutely getting closer to it year after year.

Does this seem to be true on the ground in Qld?

You will always have your died in the wool proper old school League supporters who refuse to watch any AFL.

But overall since the Lions have been good for a few years now, I think that more people follow both codes and go to both NRL and AFL games.

Lions have sold out nearly every home game last season and this season. A day game against GWS sold out last time and that's usually about the lowest drawing team and time slot.

Growing up and going to school in the 90s you would be ridiculed for even talking about aerial ping pong or GayFL, very different now.

It doesn't even feel like AFL and NRL are in competition necessarily, most watch the Broncos and Lions these days. It's not necessarily either or.

 

[wcv1475]

I have posted on similar threads before, lived in QLD from 2000 moved from Vic (back in Vic as of 2024) but the growth at Junior level is amazing and hats off to the AFL for supporting that. A club i am familiar with is Sherwood in Western Suburbs of QLD and the junior setup is awesome, way better than the club we are now with in Vic (which is still ok, great people). I used to always ask my kids about school friends who say they are Broncos supporters, how many of them people actually play full tackle NRL, not many a lot play soccer and more and more are coming across to AFL, so i think this is where the growth has come from. The academies are great and they give talented kids a good alternative to league. I had someone explain it to me that league can offer a kid a few thousand to play as a youngster but AFL can't so the academies at least give the kids something to aim for.

 

[deck]

The average TV audience for an AFL game is 397,000

Where are you pulling these numbers from? The AFL is not pulling that kind of figure in Brisbane and would be lucky to hit 15% of that. They are closer to figures in Melbourne for a Friday night.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Where are you pulling these numbers from? The AFL is not pulling that kind of figure in Brisbane and would be lucky to hit 15% of that. They are closer to figures in Melbourne for a Friday night.

Yeah, not even NRL hits those numbers in QLD. Broncos average between 100-200k. Brisbane lions averages between 50-120k during the home and away season. However, with Kayo figures, i'm sure both figures are much higher.

 

[PhatBoy]

League as a participation sport is going to continue to suffer I think as concussion becomes more and more of an issue. My young bloke grew up playing it and then gave it away for a while and this week was picked in his school team (he’s in year 10) to play dummy half (right in the middle of the field where he’s going to be tackling front rowers) and I must admit for the first time I’m a bit worried about his safety, much as I’m proud he’s playing because I love the game and played it myself. It’s a very hard sport to play beyond the age of 30 and not a sport that you can really play at a sort of hit and giggle level. Most comps in the country have 1-2 grades and players will generally all get a taste of first grade at some stage during the year off the bench at least, aside from the absolute spuds. You can’t really be ‘carried’ much.

I’m not sure what the equivalent is like in the traditional AFL states but the Australian rules comps here: if you want to play a footy code to stay fit, and don’t like soccer, even if you’ve never kicked a ball before, you can get a game of AFL up until you’re 40+ easily, which I think makes it a more appealing option for a lot of people still wanting to do something a bit competitive without quite as much risk

 

[Elixuh]

For a range of reasons the grassroots and junior footy is doing extremely well and has great growth. One of those reasons is there are now real and legitimate talent pathways into the big leagues.

AFL is far less relevant in the media and that is with the Lions at the peak of their influence having played finals every year since 2019, including 2 grand finals. Suns much more irrelevant.

At the top level the lions can’t do much more to draw in support. Still lags the NRL. Will be interesting to see what happens when the Lions go back down the ladder.

I think the growth in the grassroots and junior footy is the most important part for the entire league going forward both commercially and in terms of increased talent coming from Qld.

Building this market has and will take decades. You’d be crazy to do anything which jeopardises or pulls that back.

 

[parano1a]

For instance, there are more registered AFL players (over 120,000) than NRL players (98,000) in Qld.

The only registered AFL players in Queensland are the 80 or so players that are on the Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns senior lists. Perhaps you were talking about registered Australian Rules Football participants?

 

[MadMundy]

I'm hoping that the eventual Perth Bears team can grow the Rugby League game over here, I've always found the code wars to be fairly stupid, we're sports fans first and foremost, I want every sport to thrive.

 

[pOleK]

I'm hoping that the eventual Perth Bears team can grow the Rugby League game over here, I've always found the code wars to be fairly stupid, we're sports fans first and foremost, I want every sport to thrive.

Agree with this sentiment. Always loved for the most part how US sport is able to operate. Code wars are near non-existent and you pretty much support any of the “Big 4” teams that are from your city. NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB and even the MLS now is carving out its own footprint. If the main team you follow is down, at least one of the other city’s teams should be competitive.

 

[Cleric]

Where are you pulling these numbers from? The AFL is not pulling that kind of figure in Brisbane and would be lucky to hit 15% of that. They are closer to figures in Melbourne for a Friday night.

I have double checked and you are right. I got my numbers mixed up. That was the average Foxtel audience Australia wide.
Sorry about that.

 

[Cleric]

The only registered AFL players in Queensland are the 80 or so players that are on the Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns senior lists. Perhaps you were talking about registered Australian Rules Football participants?

Yeah, when I am saying AFL I'm talking about Aussie Rules, and NRL is league.

 

[Cleric]

You will always have your died in the wool proper old school League supporters who refuse to watch any AFL.

But overall since the Lions have been good for a few years now, I think that more people follow both codes and go to both NRL and AFL games.

Lions have sold out nearly every home game last season and this season. A day game against GWS sold out last time and that's usually about the lowest drawing team and time slot.

Growing up and going to school in the 90s you would be ridiculed for even talking about aerial ping pong or GayFL, very different now.

It doesn't even feel like AFL and NRL are in competition necessarily, most watch the Broncos and Lions these days. It's not necessarily either or.

I guess the competition isn't in the viewers but in which sport the kids choose to play.

What would be the split you see of AFL goals vs League goal posts driving around?

Do the schools have a good mix of AFL and League goals on their grounds?
I know there used to be a split between the private schools which fielded Union sides and the public schools that had League sides, but I'm not sure how that operated nowadays. (I'm going off my memory of when I played Union in SA and what was said about Qld abd NSW schools)

 

[Rail King]

I guess the competition isn't in the viewers but in which sport the kids choose to play.

What would be the split you see of AFL goals vs League goal posts driving around?

Do the schools have a good mix of AFL and League goals on their grounds?
I know there used to be a split between the private schools which fielded Union sides and the public schools that had League sides, but I'm not sure how that operated nowadays. (I'm going off my memory of when I played Union in SA and what was said about Qld abd NSW schools)

Pretty much every high school on the GC has AFL posts set up, and quite a lot of Brisbane schools do as well, sometimes going across a rugby field sideways.
I was wondering who paid for them, they're proper tall posts, not like the tree logs painted white we had at my school many moons ago.

 

[King 05]

Pretty much every high school on the GC has AFL posts set up, and quite a lot of Brisbane schools do as well, sometimes going across a rugby field sideways.
I was wondering who paid for them, they're proper tall posts, not like the tree logs painted white we had at my school many moons ago.

I know that AFLQ used to approach primary (p-6) schools with an offer to install AFL goal posts on their ovals at no cost. That was abut 8 years ago so not sure if that still happens but in SE Qld there were up to 8 schools who took up the offer.

 

[Freomaniac]

I am surprised to see that the popularity of AFL in Qld is so close to NRL. AFL is nearing a 50/50 split with NRL as far as popularity goes.
For instance, there are more registered AFL players (over 120,000) than NRL players (98,000) in Qld.

The average TV audience for an AFL game is 397,000, while the GF had 456,000, while the NRL GF had 567,000 viewers in Qld.

While the NRL has a slight advantage, the AFL is absolutely getting closer to it year after year.

Does this seem to be true on the ground in Qld?

Success does help.

Brisbane Broncos in the NRL won premierships in 1992, 1993 , 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2006.

They are essentially a state side similar to West coast in the AFL from 1987-1994 and crows from 1991-1996 or Swans from 1982-2011.

Lookin' at Brisbane's AFL history. Won flags in 2001-2003. Then again in 2024.

Brisbane's sustained finals success from 1995-2004 would of created a core of rusted on fans.

It's a generational thing. Some of those 10-20 year Olds in 2001-3 are 20 years older in 2024 and probably have kids now as Brisbane fans

 

[kid_a]

It also depends where.

In SEQ (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast) the gap between interest and participation in Aussie rules and rugby league isn't massive and on the Gold Coast is say it's dead even.

Venture North and west though and it becomes a different story. Central and North QLD is still, and will be for a long time, rugby league heartland.
Aussie rules does exist in places like Gladstone, Rockhampton, Mackay and Townsville but is very much an after thought for the majority of people there and in fact many militant league fans in those places actively ridicule and avoid Aussie rules.

FNQ is a bit of an outlier particularly Cairns as it does have a relatively large and vibrant Aussie rules following and although still behind league in popularity amongst the general population, doesn't attract the same amount of vitriol by as many people as the other places I've named.

 

[CarterS]

What would be the split you see of AFL goals vs League goal posts driving around?

Do the schools have a good mix of AFL and League goals on their grounds?

It'd still be 90/10 to League if not more.

 

[kid_a]

It'd still be 90/10 to League if not more.

Townsville, Rockhampton, Ipswich etc....Yes

Gold coast....definitely not

 

[Bjo187]

I think the growth in the grassroots and junior footy is the most important part for the entire league going forward both commercially and in terms of increased talent coming from Qld.

It's why the afl put so much money, time and effort into participation in nsw and qld. Data suggests a kid that participates in a particular sport for at least 3 years is 7x more likely to consume that sport as an adult.

 

[GC2015]

Townsville, Rockhampton, Ipswich etc....Yes

Gold coast....definitely not

When discussing Queensland, it's very important to point out that the Gold Coast and Cairns don't play by the typical rules when it comes to league vs Aussie rules popularity. Aussie rules has far better grassroots penetration in Cairns and the Gold Coast than it does in any other part of Queensland.

As an example, the Gold Coast junior rugby league website lists 14 clubs that compete in the local leagues vs the Gold Coast junior AFL website that lists 13 clubs that compete in the local leagues. Conversely, the split between junior rugby league clubs vs junior Aussie rules clubs in Brisbane would be nowhere near the 50/50 you essentially see on the Gold Coast.

 

[Cleric]

It also depends where.

In SEQ (Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast) the gap between interest and participation in Aussie rules and rugby league isn't massive and on the Gold Coast is say it's dead even.

Venture North and west though and it becomes a different story. Central and North QLD is still, and will be for a long time, rugby league heartland.
Aussie rules does exist in places like Gladstone, Rockhampton, Mackay and Townsville but is very much an after thought for the majority of people there and in fact many militant league fans in those places actively ridicule and avoid Aussie rules.

FNQ is a bit of an outlier particularly Cairns as it does have a relatively large and vibrant Aussie rules following and although still behind league in popularity amongst the general population, doesn't attract the same amount of vitriol by as many people as the other places I've named.

I'm assuming the situation on the Gold Coast and in Cairns would be from people moving there from the southern states to live?

 

[kid_a]

I'm assuming the situation on the Gold Coast and in Cairns would be from people moving there from the southern states to live?

Partly yes, but both also have had a strong community of and interest in the game for decades.

 

[GC2015]

I'm assuming the situation on the Gold Coast and in Cairns would be from people moving there from the southern states to live?

It would be inaccurate to purely put it down to southern migration. The Cairns AFL was formed in 1955 and the Gold Coast AFL was formed in 1961 - back then it was uncommon to see large migration to regional Queensland, particularly from the southern states. Both cities were essentially small coastal towns back then and the local Aussie rules leagues gained strong followings over the first few decades of existence to establish a good foothold within the local market/culture and footy became the second most popular sport behind rugby league in both cities by the 80s/90s when southern migration to regional Queensland really started to ramp up. Rugby league just couldn't establish a strong grip in either of those markets like it did in Brisbane and other regional parts of Queensland. So it's a combination of locals establishing a good following for the game first, and then southerners strengthening that base later on, without being swayed to switch to rugby league like they probably would have in other parts of Queensland - see Brisbane native Darren Lockyer switching from Aussie rules to rugby league as a youngster.

There's obviously a lot more to it over the 70+ years of footy being played seriously in those cities like the surprising success of the Southport Sharks in the Brisbane state league and the ANFC purchasing Cazalys Stadium in Cairns, but you get the point. Each Queensland city has a different history when it comes to the rugby league v Aussie rules situation and the Gold Coast + Cairns undoubtedly have the most market penetration when it comes to Aussie rules popularity in Queensland.

 

[WillHayward]

How many of the "registered players" are just in Auskick?