Anti-vax LNP senate candidate. Where did all the adults go?

[Donakebab]

The reputation of Queensland (outside Brisbane at least) as the land of the crazies is well-earned, but it's also more of a mixed bag than people might think. The conservative nutjobs are very nutty, but the progressive areas can be very progressive. Truly a land of extremes.

The latest polls have the Greens doing very well in Queensland, and it's a real possibility that they win at least one of the three inner-city seats in Brisbane. I anticipate a swing against the LNP, and while I don't know if it will be localised enough to cost them any lower house seats, I can't see the LNP winning three senators this time. Brisbane at least balances things out a bit.

You really think the Greens can snag a seat in the lower house in QLD? Regardless of the broader outcome, that would be one of the biggest stories of the election.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

You really think the Greens can snag a seat in the lower house in QLD? Regardless of the broader outcome, that would be one of the biggest stories of the election.

I'm not going to pretend I'm confident in it happening, but it is possible. Consider that:

1. Polling data shows an uptick in the Greens primary vote in Queensland. This is from the SMH/Age Resolve polling data:



I'm gonna guess that the rise in Greens vote is not happening in regional Queensland, where the Greens haven't been campaigning much, and is instead happening in the inner suburbs of Brisbane where they've been campaigning a lot. Assuming the polls took a representative sample of people from across Queensland, the Greens vote in inner Brisbane would have to be pretty high to balance out all the areas outside Brisbane that have pretty low Greens votes.

I know polling isn't perfect and made big mistakes last time, but I reckon the pollsters have made an effort to learn from their mistakes and sample better this time around.

2. The media are openly discussing the possibility:

Brisbane’s ‘goat cheese belt’ could have turned teal

With no high-profile Climate 200 candidates, the Greens may now win seats from the Liberals and Labor in wealthy, professional electorates in south-east Queensland.

www.afr.com

Could the Labor seat of Griffith flip Green this election?

It would be rather foolhardy to believe Kevin Rudd's old electorate will remain safely in ALP hands after May 21.

www.crikey.com.au

In particular, the AFR article (written by a former Labor senator) says that the 18% figure from the Resolve poll translates to a 30% primary vote in the seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. If they get ahead of the Labor Party on those numbers in those electorates, they can win at least one of them.

3. The following flyers have both hit Griffith this week:



You don't spend campaign money attacking someone unless you regard them as a threat. Otherwise it would be a waste of limited resources that you could use to promote yourself.

So the polls, some parts of the media, the Labor Party and the LNP all think a Greens win in inner Brisbane is a serious possibility. And that's why I think so too.

 

[banner31]

Sad thing is, a lot of mexicans arriving in droves, with their crazy antivax ideas.

Ever thought it’s about the lock downs, loss of freedom, income and independence?

Other than just a vaccine!

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Pauline will get the 3rd conservative seat. Clive's UAP votes will drag enough votes to perhaps get the conservatives a 4th seat again, a lot of COVID nuttery going on up there.

It's safe to say that if the rest of Australia didn't already look down on the intelligence of Queensland's education system, that disdain increases every federal election!

Not sure how the ALP win state elections when doing so bad federally! 22% Senate vote last election!

Do you think the view the rest of Australia has of Queensland has changed after they elected more lower house Greens than the rest of Australia combined?

Clive was a non-factor in the end. The anti-vax lobby barked louder than their real numbers.

You really think the Greens can snag a seat in the lower house in QLD? Regardless of the broader outcome, that would be one of the biggest stories of the election.

Well, we certainly got our answer to that!