Racing April Daily Punt: Delayed by a week due to bad weather

[HeathySure]

Sitting outside the lead has nothing to do with whether he will win or lose

in distance races it has absolutely every reason. It blows my mind that people cant see that those that sit outside the leader win about 2 percent of races in distance races. You have to be 3 lengths better than any other horse in the race to do it and hes not 3 lenghts better than VE

 

[iluvparis]

Tofane @12$ is overs in the last given she is back to mares grade for the first time since 2019 where she thrashed peak Pippie down the straight. It’s also easy to forget that this mare won an All Aged stakes on her merits last autumn handling Bivouac and Pierata... was only 3 lengths off Nature Strip in a TJ too. She carried top weight vs the boys first up last prep and went down a head to Zoutori. Got to be good form for a race of this nature on Saturday. I envisage her sitting near last off a hot speed and unleashing.
Thought Seasons was pretty impressive last start+ she is ever consistent, she is the danger from a low draw.

reckon tofane is gone at the game but I guess you get a decent price to find out if she hasn’t. Seasons does look a big price though of a dominant last start win

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Would have been nice if the Japs could have sent Salios over now with how things have played out

Much would have preferred Loves Only You!!!

 

[Jammer]

Trifaccia in the 4th at Randwick on Saturday.
Was in a trial with a mates horse last week. Gosh it looked impressive
Every other horse was flailing around it she just cruised wide the whole trip
under a big hold the whole way... yeah it was only a trial but she has definitely come on further
from its impressive last start.
Up against Najmaty but at $6 a definite back for me.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Much would have preferred Loves Only You!!!

Goat Family

 

[TBellicious]

What’s the word with that Kiwi mare in Tofane’s race

 

[iluvparis]

What’s the word with that Kiwi mare in Tofane’s race

The word is it’s from NZ so most likely legless

 

[iluvparis]

Headline race of the Craven meeting on at Newmarket tonight.

A bit like the Fielden on Tuesday night I reckon Godolphin could quinella it and they have the top two in the market here. Slight leaning to MASTER OF THE SEAS over LA BAROSA

Last year's July Cup winner OXTED goes around at tomato sauce in the race beforehand.

 

[Turnover]

Realm of Flowers Sydney cup. Hunting the line last start, freedmans new cocktails, , 50kgs.

 

[Mazza1234678]

Realm of Flowers Sydney cup. Hunting the line last start, freedmans new cocktails, , 50kgs.

All over it

Has to be the one to gun down you would think

 

[Turnover]

All over it

Has to be the one to gun down you would think

Have noted FBI’s increased improvement recently. Has paid off ok.

 

[iluvparis]

And there it is!

 

[54Dogs]

in distance races it has absolutely every reason. It blows my mind that people cant see that those that sit outside the leader win about 2 percent of races in distance races. You have to be 3 lengths better than any other horse in the race to do it and hes not 3 lenghts better than VE

Any fact base behind this, or are you just saying it's hard to do?

 

[iluvparis]

Would love to know the reasoning behind people backing the Dragon at $6.50/$7 here when he jumped $14 in the Ranvet and was absolutely belted.

You'd hope they have also mortgaged the house to put on She's Ideal on the limit in the Sydney Cup

 

[Mazza1234678]

Would love to know the reasoning behind people backing the Dragon at $6.50/$7 here when he jumped $14 in the Ranvet and was absolutely belted.

You'd hope they have also mortgaged the house to put on She's Ideal on the limit in the Sydney Cup

Back in distance too I just don’t get it. Should be 20s IMO

 

[mcnulty]

Would love to know the reasoning behind people backing the Dragon at $6.50/$7 here when he jumped $14 in the Ranvet and was absolutely belted.

You'd hope they have also mortgaged the house to put on She's Ideal on the limit in the Sydney Cup

The reasoning seems to be he’s improved from the Ranvet. I think he’s definitely got better with each run, and they so stuffed up his program initially that it’s taken this long to get him right.

I kind of buy that, but he’s still too short for me.

 

[iluvparis]

The reasoning seems to be he’s improved from the Ranvet. I think he’s definitely got better with each run, and they so stuffed up his program initially that it’s taken this long to get him right.

I kind of buy that, but he’s still too short for me.

well he needs to have improved and hope the top two have held their form or more realistically given his price gone backwards. Seems a massive stretch

 

[mcnulty]

...I also think the market is judging that Mugatoo was a run short last week.

 

[mcnulty]

It’s a weird race. All four in the market like it wet, and they’re going to get that unlikeliest of all racing phenomena- a good track at Randwick in April. VE and the Dragon have recently shown the can be effective on the dry, but I suspect Addeyyb has more improvement.

Total watch race for me, but one I look forward too.

 

[iluvparis]

...I also think the market is judging that Mugatoo was a run short last week.

Seems completely maid up - as I said post race last week would be Tosen Stardom levels of dodgy turn around if he comes out and wins this - genuinely has none.

 

[iluvparis]

It’s a weird race. All four in the market like it wet, and they’re going to get that unlikeliest of all racing phenomena- a good track at Randwick in April. VE and the Dragon have recently shown the can be effective on the dry, but I suspect Addeyyb has more improvement.

Total watch race for me, but one I look forward too.

Pretty obvious race for me and if you're not backing the two faves for a result you are completely doing it wrong. They are the only two that can win and you are getting value about both given the Sir D/Mug poi poi.

If it is a good track as is looking almost certain I expect VE to win handily - her last two firm deck runs are outstanding. Any improvement Addeyb has will be solidly offset by the dry track - I am in the camp that think the Blinkers are a sign of desperation too and really nothing has gone right for them on the entire trip. Sir D aint turning around the Ranvet form and Mugatoo has none.

This is a race that any reasonable punter must bet in

 

[dontlimitme]

horse people, thoughts on probabeel? take the price now or will it shorten?

 

[iluvparis]

horse people, thoughts on probabeel? take the price now or will it shorten?

Honestly not sure what the market will do with her - legit even money chance at her best but first run for a long time off that ASM is an obvious question mark. Every twitter tipster in the world will be on though

 

[mcnulty]

Pretty obvious race for me and if you're not backing the two faves for a result you are completely doing it wrong. They are the only two that can win and you are getting value about both given the Sir D/Mug poi poi.

If it is a good track as is looking almost certain I expect VE to win handily - her last two firm deck runs are outstanding. Any improvement Addeyb has will be solidly offset by the dry track - I am in the camp that think the Blinkers are a sign of desperation too and really nothing has gone right for them on the entire trip. Sir D aint turning around the Ranvet form and Mugatoo has none.

This is a race that any reasonable punter must bet in

The Turnbull she fell in against Toffee Tongue and Finche. Cup run was ok. No doubt in my mind she prefers the sting out of the ground. Now maybe she prefers it less than others but not certainly wouldn’t shock me if one of the other two won.

Just a race I’m looking forward to but not interested in an investment (at this stage). Good luck with yours.

 

[Jugada]

VE the only win bet I'll be having in the race. Legit pissing away value and potential winnings by saving on Addeybb on a dry track.

Mugatoo the exacta horse. Wants 2000m now.

Wont be at all shocked if Think It Over or Dalasan run a drum as the two who will get closest to their peaks on a firm track