- Sep 15, 2011
- 5,980
- 10,329
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Liverpool FC, Lakers, Longhorns
And the saints? With Mel + GWS to come if they beat Geelong our seasons over.
-
Mobile App Discontinued
Due to a number of factors, support for the current BigFooty mobile app has been discontinued. Your BigFooty login will no longer work on the Tapatalk or the BigFooty App - which is based on Tapatalk.
Apologies for any inconvenience. We will try to find a replacement.
Preview Battle for last finals spots ... how it shapes up
- Thread starter The Old Dark Navy's
- Start date
- Tagged users None
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
- Status
And the saints? With Mel + GWS to come if they beat Geelong our seasons over.
If we were to win all 4 remaining games as I said then the Saints will be 1 win behind us.
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #128
Correct. If the Saints beat Geelong, then our rd 23 match is to finish above each other, whether that be in or out of the 8. If Saints win their percentage may get us there, ours may not though. If Geelong beat the Saints, then the Saints have nothing to play for against us.If we were to win all 4 remaining games as I said then the Saints will be 1 win behind us.
Which would be a good situation for us and the reverse from our meeting in the final round last year when we had nothing to gain and they had everything to play for. All means jack shizen unless we handle Bris, Ess and GC reasonably well though!
Log in to remove this Banner Ad
I actually think we are more then alive.
Need to win all 4 of our final games, that's a given. Really need at least 2 thrashing's in there.
I can see WCE missing out on the 8 too if they get thrashed a couple of times (will end on 13 wins assuming they lose to Cats, Hawks, Pies but beat Port).
Need Geelong to smash them this week.
North to beat Bombers
Adelaide to beat Freo
Need to win all 4 of our final games, that's a given. Really need at least 2 thrashing's in there.
I can see WCE missing out on the 8 too if they get thrashed a couple of times (will end on 13 wins assuming they lose to Cats, Hawks, Pies but beat Port).
Need Geelong to smash them this week.
North to beat Bombers
Adelaide to beat Freo
carlton2dabone
Premiership Player
- May 17, 2012
- 4,424
- 4,620
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Banned
- #131
Basically our finals hopes bear out like this.
Our best case scenario would NEED the following results to definitely pan out if we are any chance AND the margins can be tinkered with as each round advances:
Round 20
Adelaide Vs Freo (AS) - we def. need Adelaide to win by AT LEAST 30 points or more (very probable)
Carlton Vs Brisbane (ES) - We def. need to win by over 65 points (the more the better)
Ess Vs North (ES) - we need this game to be really close, AND best case scenario is for Ess to win by under 10 points
Round 21
Ess Vs Carlton (MCG) - we need to win this game by over 35 points (the more the better)
Freo Vs Richmond (PS) - we need this game to be really close (margin needs to be under 25 points, AND best case scenario is if Rich cause an upset)
Coll Vs North (ES) - we def. need Coll to win by AT LEAST 30 points or more (the more the better)
Round 22
Rich Vs Ess (MCG) - If Ess win then we need the margin to be under 50 points (the less the better, AND best case scenario is if Rich win)
GC Vs Carlton (MS) - Carlton def. need to win by over 60 points (the more the better)
North Vs Fremantle (ES) - we need this game to be really close (margin needs to be under 12 points, AND best case scenario is for North to win)
Round 23
Carlton Vs Saints (ES) - Carlton def. need to win by over 20 points (the more the better)
Coll Vs Ess (MCG) - we def. need Coll to win by AT LEAST 20 points or more (very probable)
GWS Vs North (SK) - If North win then we need the margin to be under 60 points (the less the better, AND best case scenario is for GWS to cause an upset)
Freo Vs Melbourne (PS) - If Freo win then we need the margin to be under 60 points (the less the better, AND best case scenario is for Melbourne to cause an upset)
The highlighted games above def. need to pan out as described for us to be any chance, AS WELL as winning all our games by substantial margins.
The remaining games can pan out in different ways and still give us a slight chance.
Lastly the worst case scenario is if:
North beats Ess
AND THEN
North loses to Freo
(because we will then have to be relying on unthinkable upsets in North and Freos remaining games)
Our best case scenario would NEED the following results to definitely pan out if we are any chance AND the margins can be tinkered with as each round advances:
Round 20
Adelaide Vs Freo (AS) - we def. need Adelaide to win by AT LEAST 30 points or more (very probable)
Carlton Vs Brisbane (ES) - We def. need to win by over 65 points (the more the better)
Ess Vs North (ES) - we need this game to be really close, AND best case scenario is for Ess to win by under 10 points
Round 21
Ess Vs Carlton (MCG) - we need to win this game by over 35 points (the more the better)
Freo Vs Richmond (PS) - we need this game to be really close (margin needs to be under 25 points, AND best case scenario is if Rich cause an upset)
Coll Vs North (ES) - we def. need Coll to win by AT LEAST 30 points or more (the more the better)
Round 22
Rich Vs Ess (MCG) - If Ess win then we need the margin to be under 50 points (the less the better, AND best case scenario is if Rich win)
GC Vs Carlton (MS) - Carlton def. need to win by over 60 points (the more the better)
North Vs Fremantle (ES) - we need this game to be really close (margin needs to be under 12 points, AND best case scenario is for North to win)
Round 23
Carlton Vs Saints (ES) - Carlton def. need to win by over 20 points (the more the better)
Coll Vs Ess (MCG) - we def. need Coll to win by AT LEAST 20 points or more (very probable)
GWS Vs North (SK) - If North win then we need the margin to be under 60 points (the less the better, AND best case scenario is for GWS to cause an upset)
Freo Vs Melbourne (PS) - If Freo win then we need the margin to be under 60 points (the less the better, AND best case scenario is for Melbourne to cause an upset)
The highlighted games above def. need to pan out as described for us to be any chance, AS WELL as winning all our games by substantial margins.
The remaining games can pan out in different ways and still give us a slight chance.
Lastly the worst case scenario is if:
North beats Ess
AND THEN
North loses to Freo
(because we will then have to be relying on unthinkable upsets in North and Freos remaining games)
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #132
The margins required are not locked in though. We just need to adjust should one of the margins be more or less than required.
Liking that summary carlton2dabone but I see no reason why WCE shouldn't be included in the calculations. A pumping this week from the Cats will change things greatly. They will end on 52 points, it's a matter of % then.
I can still see North, Freo AND Us making it.
I can still see North, Freo AND Us making it.
I see us making it a lot more simply really.
Obviously we need to win our last 4. If we are fair dinkum about actually being able to achieve something in September, then beating the calibre of team we are facing in the next 4 weeks is a given.
From there, im dismissing Essendon from calculations due to their draw, form and injuries (only have to drop 1 of there games vs Pies, Kangas and Tigers for us to draw level with them), and conceding North are monty's for the top 8 for the same reasons (but in reverse).
So from there it is Carlton Vs Freo for 8th spot. (discounted Saints as we would of beaten them in rd.23 for our 4/4 scenario)
Freo travel to Adelaide to play the Crows and also play North at Etihad. They 'should' drop both games. And Richmond is no pushover either.
From there that puts us level on points at the end of round 23. Factor in a couple of 10-15 goal beatings of the QLD teams, and our % should surpass that of the Dockers (also factoring their % will drop during the 2 losses we need them to have). It may actually come down to how competitive Melbourne are against Freo in rd.23
Quite simple and only really relies on a couple of external results going our way.
And the reward if it all does fall to plan.... Finals... and no games at Etihad!! Ideally a game against the Cats at the G!
carlton2dabone
Premiership Player
- May 17, 2012
- 4,424
- 4,620
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Banned
- #137
Yes that scenario is a possibility, BUT I did not include it because it is not the most likely.
The BEST CASE SCENARIO for Carlton in round 20 is the following:
West Coast Vs Geelong (PS) -
If its a margin of 60+ points, doesnt matter who the winner is.
If its a close game, would prefer Geelong to come out on top.
Adelaide Vs Fremantle (AS) -
NEED an Adeliade win by 40+ points
Carlton Vs Brisbane (ES) -
NEED a Carlton win by 60+ points
Essendon Vs North Melbourne (ES) -
A margin of under 10 points, whichever team wins.
If its going to be a big margin, would prefer North to come out on top.
Then we take it a week at a a time
Wickzki
Definitely Sam MacLure.
- Oct 1, 2010
- 29,168
- 75,719
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Ophidians Old Boys, Blazers, MCFC
Not liking the chances of Adelaide smashing Fremantle with the system that Ross employs. Expect Fremantle to score 45-60 points and Adelaide to get 65-80.
What killed us was West Coast laying down against Fremantle on Saturday. Now we need Richmond or Melbourne to shock them. Otherwise it's Fremantle for Essendon for mine.
What killed us was West Coast laying down against Fremantle on Saturday. Now we need Richmond or Melbourne to shock them. Otherwise it's Fremantle for Essendon for mine.
Dreaming
better doesn't equal more inside 50s the quality of the swans structures and ball movement was so much better,at the game felt like swans were cruising
The real question is should we put Waite kruz and even juddy on ice for rest of year and start out move towards 2013 flag
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #143
Goes to our poor skills that I spoke of. We were actually creating plenty of run and reading the ball better quite a lot. The commentators even stated we were on top in the run of play, but the Swans clearance work was far more devastating than ours and they barely turned it over when they ran and supported each other. Take away the unforced turnovers and we would have looked just as good. Structure wise ... well that has been our problem all year.
Dramoth
Premium Platinum
I think that we keep trying to make the finals right up until the last round... if we drop out of the race earlier than that... then we start our push for next year... we put our essential players on ice for the rest of the year and then start tinkering with game plans and getting some experience into our kids.
I would like to see how Casboult and Mitchell go together in the forward line and I would also love to see a proper forwards coach come in to the club to work with Levi... he needs a lot of help with his kicking action and Barker doesnt seem to be cutting the mustard there.
I wouldnt mind seeing RoK and Carter getting a run out just to see how they go and possibly give Blake a run out to see if he is going to be ok long term (something tells me he wont be...).
But this has to happen once it becomes apparent that we wont be making the finals this year and at this point in time, while it is unlikely that we will make the finals, we are still in the hunt because numerically we can make it...
🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.
Claypigeon
Pull *bang*. .. Next?
- May 6, 2010
- 10,054
- 2,320
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Richmond until at least Rnd 2 2014
Lack of continuity has really killed our structure. .. Was looking forward to getting some over the next few weeks and then we go and lose Jammo
Dramoth
Premium Platinum
Losing Jamo was a bit of a killer tbh... but still... will allow us to maybe really evaluate Watson as the number 1 defender with the other medium/large defenders helping him out.Lack of continuity has really killed our structure. .. Was looking forward to getting some over the next few weeks and then we go and lose Jammo
Do WCE beat any of Hawks, Pies or Cats??
If we are talking about us winning our last 4 and ending on 52 points, why can't we talk about the chances that WCE drop enough %?
AFL have announced the scheduling for the Round 23 games and given they have put the Saints/Blues game on the Sunday they obviously think we both won't make the 8.
Probably fair enough without seeing the schedule as both teams are less likely to make it then say Ess, Nth and Freo.
I hope someone hasn't done their life savings on us making top 4......
- Status
Similar threads
- Poll
