Dramoth
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Preview Battle for last finals spots ... how it shapes up
- Thread starter The Old Dark Navy's
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- Apr 29, 2012
- 28,271
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- Carlton
Im a West Aussie and would love another run at the Eagles over here.
We've honestly been so close lately, could have easily won them all
Im holding out for that feeling off hugging random Carlton supporters outside the Ground, singing the song on the bus home and watching the supporters boo as Judd carves em up
We've honestly been so close lately, could have easily won them all
Im holding out for that feeling off hugging random Carlton supporters outside the Ground, singing the song on the bus home and watching the supporters boo as Judd carves em up
- Moderator
- #78
If we lose the Sydney game - and I dont think we will, given its in Melbourne, and we seem to be playing some decent footy with players returning and others coming in to form - then i agree. We could theoretically hit the finals with everyone available bar Henderson, Hampson and Laidler.
I see it like this
Currently
5 West Coast 12
6 Geelong 11
7 Essendon 11
8 North 10
9 Freo 10
10 St Kilda 9
11 Carlton 9
Round 19
- Hawthorn beat Geelong
- North beat the Bulldogs
- West Coast beat Freo
- Collingwood beat St Kilda
- Adelaide beat Essendon in Adelaide
5 West Coast 13
6 Geelong 11
7 Essendon 11
8 North 11
9 Freo 10
10 Carlton 10 (St Kilda 9)
11 St Kilda 9 (Carlton 9)
A Carlton win over the Swans at Etihad would give us 10th (a loss will give us no change).
Im predicting a win.
Round 20
- West Coast to beat Geelong at Subiaco
- Adelaide to beat Fremantle at Footy park
- St Kilda to beat Melbourne
- Sydney to beat Collingwood at the SCG
- Carlton to beat Brisbane at Etihad
- Hawks to annilhate Port
- North to beat Essendon
5 Collingwood 14
6 North 12
7 Geelong 11
8 Essendon 11
9 Carlton 11 (St KIlda 10)
10 St KIlda 10 (Freo 10)
11 Freo 10 (Carlton 10)
Round 21
- Geelong to beat St Kilda
- Carlton to beat Essendon
- Freo to beat Richmond
- Collingwood to beat North
- Adelaide to beat Brisbane
- West Coast to flog Port
- Sydney to massacre Bulldogs
5 Collingwood 15
6 Geelong 12
7 North 12
8 Carlton 12 (Essendon 11)
9 Essendon 11 (Freo 11)
10 Fremantle 11 (Carlton 11)
11 St KIlda 10 (St Kilda 10)
Round 22
- Essendon to beat Richmond
- St Kilda to beat GWS
- Sydney to beat Hawthorn (in SYdney)
- West Coast to beat Collingwood (in Perth)
- Carlton to beat GOld Coast
- Geelong to beat Bulldogs
- North to beat Freo
5 Collingwood 15
6 Geelong 13
7 North 13
8 Carlton 13 (Essendon 12)
9 Essendon 12 (Carlton 12)
10 St Kilda 11 (St Kilda 11)
11 Freo 11 (Fremantle 11)
Round 23
- Collingwood to beat Essendon
- Hawthorn to beat West Coast (MCG)
- Geelong to beat Sydney at Geelong
- Freo to beat Melbourne in Perth
- North to beat GWS at Skoda
- Carlton to beat St Kilda
5 Collingwood 16
6 Geelong 14
7 NOrth 14
8 Carlton 14
9 Essendon 12
10 Freo 12
11 St Kilda 11
With a sydney loss Carlton still make 8th with 13
depending on the winner of the Saints v Blues match in Round 23.
All is for nought if Essendon win 2 matches against anyone.
Love your optimism.. but even at our best we've been unable to win 4 in a row for over a decade... if we manage to beat Sydney and then Brisbane with our current injuries and without Judd that would be phenomenal and in fact could be what we've just needed. Judd and Simpson not being involved in these wins would have them chomping at the bit to resume and with them and everyone else back as you predict we could get on a pretty good roll (8 wins in a row
) and hit finals in some good form.Log in to remove this Banner Ad
The way I see it the ladder at the end of the year will be as follows:
1. Carlton (14 wins but superior %)
2. Freo (14 wins)
3.North (14 wins)
4. Coll (14 wins)
5. WC (14)
6. Adel (14)
7. Geel (14)
8.Ess (14)
...................
9. Syd (14)
10. Hawth (13)
11. St K (13)
[Well, it is still mathematically possible, so who knows.]
1. Carlton (14 wins but superior %)
2. Freo (14 wins)
3.North (14 wins)
4. Coll (14 wins)
5. WC (14)
6. Adel (14)
7. Geel (14)
8.Ess (14)
...................
9. Syd (14)
10. Hawth (13)
11. St K (13)
[Well, it is still mathematically possible, so who knows.]
Haha!
In all seriousness, I don't see Essendon winning any other games but the Richmond one. I don't see Freo beating Adelaide (AAMI), North (Etihad) or WCE. I don't see us beating Sydney (it would be great but lets be realistic). I don't see Saints beating Pies or Cats.
So it comes down to Saints vs Blues. With a hopefully almost full strength side, who knows!
In all seriousness, I don't see Essendon winning any other games but the Richmond one. I don't see Freo beating Adelaide (AAMI), North (Etihad) or WCE. I don't see us beating Sydney (it would be great but lets be realistic). I don't see Saints beating Pies or Cats.
So it comes down to Saints vs Blues. With a hopefully almost full strength side, who knows!
The last two weeks have kept our hopes alive, but there are so many 50/50 games for so many teams, it is still very unlikely the Blues will make it, Sydney will be very tough this week, they continue to be underrated, and St Kilda in our last game continue to be a bogey side for us, Essendon will have Ryder,Crameri,Hurley back soon which will make a difference.
We will need at least 4 out of 5, whilst it is a feel good thing to make finals, reality is you need to be top 4 to have a impact.
Tanks_Alot
Club Legend
Well our chances are almost dead now with the Frockers belting the Eagles by 58 at 3qtr time. They'll most likely reach 13 wins now which means we'd need to win every game from now on.
Ah well, can only blame ourselves should never have lost to Port, should've been able to get over the line against the Bombers, Saints, Crows or Kangas. Had we done that, we would've been playing finals and not relying on results.
Ah well, can only blame ourselves should never have lost to Port, should've been able to get over the line against the Bombers, Saints, Crows or Kangas. Had we done that, we would've been playing finals and not relying on results.
If you believe we can win 4/5 then we will still take the Bumbers place
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #87
Revised based on last week and so far this round. 4 spots left for 7 teams.
West Coast - 48
Geelong (H)
Port (A)
Collingwood (H)
Hawthorn (A)
Will they continue to struggle or find their better form? Port should be the win they are looking for to get them their 13 wins.
Verdict - West Coast to make the 8
Geelong - 48
West Coast (A)
St Kilda
Bulldogs (SS)
Sydney (SS)
Could win all four based on current form.
Verdict - safe as houses
Essendon - 44
Adelaide (A)
North
Carlton
Richmond
Collingwood
On a downward slope but they found something after a slide last year to make the finals and have the players to do so. Every game is potentially tough for the Bombers. Vital for Carlton to win this one and hoping the Hawks, Crows and Pies have no lapses. Anything could happen in the North and Richmond games. Only need 2 wins and their form is hard to predict.
Verdict - In the box seat but jury remains out
North - 44
Essendon
Collingwood
Fremantle (H)
GWS (A)
Easy draw this year for the Roos and they have another gimme to go and a favouritism game vs Freo in Melbourne. That will get them their 13 wins. Essendon and Freo would have to beat the Roos for Carlton to go above them but that will give Essendon and Freo the last two spots in the 8. From a Carlton perspective we need North to beat both.
Verdict - North to make the 8
Fremantle - 44
Adelaide (A)
Richmond (H)
North (A)
Melbourne (H)
Will beat Richmond and Melboure at the very least. If they beat North they are in. If not, percentage is the key.
Verdict: Likely between them and Essendon for 8th spot
St Kilda - 36
Collingwood
Melbourne
Geelong
GWS (H)
Carlton
Underdogs in the Collingwood and Geelong games. If they lose those they are gone regardless of what happens in the last game vs Carlton. Gone from good chances to being on dangerous ground without playing a game, based on Freo's win vs the Eagles. Still their chances will only be killed off if they lose to the Pies and then the Cats in round 21. Still have more chances than Carlton.
Verdict: Tough ask
Carlton - 36
Sydney (H)
Brisbane (H)
Essendon
Gold Coast (A)
St Kilda
Even if we win the last 4, we would have to get our percentage up above Fremantle's. We either have to beat the Swans as well or hope to thrash the Suns and Lions and hope Essendon lose 4 of their last 5.
Verdict - on life support
West Coast - 48
Geelong (H)
Port (A)
Collingwood (H)
Hawthorn (A)
Will they continue to struggle or find their better form? Port should be the win they are looking for to get them their 13 wins.
Verdict - West Coast to make the 8
Geelong - 48
West Coast (A)
St Kilda
Bulldogs (SS)
Sydney (SS)
Could win all four based on current form.
Verdict - safe as houses
Essendon - 44
Adelaide (A)
North
Carlton
Richmond
Collingwood
On a downward slope but they found something after a slide last year to make the finals and have the players to do so. Every game is potentially tough for the Bombers. Vital for Carlton to win this one and hoping the Hawks, Crows and Pies have no lapses. Anything could happen in the North and Richmond games. Only need 2 wins and their form is hard to predict.
Verdict - In the box seat but jury remains out
North - 44
Essendon
Collingwood
Fremantle (H)
GWS (A)
Easy draw this year for the Roos and they have another gimme to go and a favouritism game vs Freo in Melbourne. That will get them their 13 wins. Essendon and Freo would have to beat the Roos for Carlton to go above them but that will give Essendon and Freo the last two spots in the 8. From a Carlton perspective we need North to beat both.
Verdict - North to make the 8
Fremantle - 44
Adelaide (A)
Richmond (H)
North (A)
Melbourne (H)
Will beat Richmond and Melboure at the very least. If they beat North they are in. If not, percentage is the key.
Verdict: Likely between them and Essendon for 8th spot
St Kilda - 36
Collingwood
Melbourne
Geelong
GWS (H)
Carlton
Underdogs in the Collingwood and Geelong games. If they lose those they are gone regardless of what happens in the last game vs Carlton. Gone from good chances to being on dangerous ground without playing a game, based on Freo's win vs the Eagles. Still their chances will only be killed off if they lose to the Pies and then the Cats in round 21. Still have more chances than Carlton.
Verdict: Tough ask
Carlton - 36
Sydney (H)
Brisbane (H)
Essendon
Gold Coast (A)
St Kilda
Even if we win the last 4, we would have to get our percentage up above Fremantle's. We either have to beat the Swans as well or hope to thrash the Suns and Lions and hope Essendon lose 4 of their last 5.
Verdict - on life support
Tanks_Alot
Club Legend
Actually I think the Tigers will come close to beating them even though it's Freo's home game the Tigers normally give them trouble. IF they can get over the line against them then we still have a slight chance but I hate relying on Richmond, I can't imagine what it would be like to be a Tigers supporter after all the close losses this season.
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #89
Of the above, 4 teams to get in, 3 to miss.
Geelong have to win 1 and maintain their percentage.
West Coast need to win 1 and their percentage is already good enough.
Essendon need to win 2 and maintain their percentage, or win 3.
North need to win 2 and maintain their percentage.
Fremantle need to win 2 and increase their percentage or win 3.
St Kilda need to win 4 and their percentage is good enough.
Carlton need to win 4 and increase their percentage or win 5.
Note: Carlton have opportunities to lift their percentage above Freo's. If we win the 4, it will come down to a percentage battle with Freo, assuming Essendon only win 1 and are out of it.
Geelong have to win 1 and maintain their percentage.
West Coast need to win 1 and their percentage is already good enough.
Essendon need to win 2 and maintain their percentage, or win 3.
North need to win 2 and maintain their percentage.
Fremantle need to win 2 and increase their percentage or win 3.
St Kilda need to win 4 and their percentage is good enough.
Carlton need to win 4 and increase their percentage or win 5.
Note: Carlton have opportunities to lift their percentage above Freo's. If we win the 4, it will come down to a percentage battle with Freo, assuming Essendon only win 1 and are out of it.
By the sound of things, we win tomorrow (and I reckon we can) and we are right in it.
Baggers by 17.
Baggers by 17.
carlton2dabone
Premiership Player
- May 17, 2012
- 4,424
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- #91
Well the way I see it, is if we cant beat Sydney tomorrow, then we don't deserve to make the finals.
Freo played their most important game against the Weagles and won (not an easy game for them), which means they have earned (and deserve) a spot in the eight.
We NEED to win against Sydney for us to deserve a spot in the eight, AND then we also need to win all remaining games.
If we cant beat Sydney when its possibly our most important game of the season, then quite frankly we dont deserve to make the finals.
Yes it will be hard without alot of our best players, but the team need to realize that upsets happen all the time in the AFL, we jjust need to make sure that we give the best chance for us to upset Sydney.
Basically, its a pyschalogical thing, if we think we are a good chance to cause an upset, then our intensity and pressure will lift, etc.
Anyway, I like it better this way, every week its a season-on-the-line game, which just makes each game that much more exciting.
Freo played their most important game against the Weagles and won (not an easy game for them), which means they have earned (and deserve) a spot in the eight.
We NEED to win against Sydney for us to deserve a spot in the eight, AND then we also need to win all remaining games.
If we cant beat Sydney when its possibly our most important game of the season, then quite frankly we dont deserve to make the finals.
Yes it will be hard without alot of our best players, but the team need to realize that upsets happen all the time in the AFL, we jjust need to make sure that we give the best chance for us to upset Sydney.
Basically, its a pyschalogical thing, if we think we are a good chance to cause an upset, then our intensity and pressure will lift, etc.
Anyway, I like it better this way, every week its a season-on-the-line game, which just makes each game that much more exciting.
Tanks_Alot
Club Legend
If this change happens I don't like our chances as much:
OUT: Bell
IN: Lucas
Would love to see Bell take on Kennedy we know he has the running capacity.
I've been saying for the last couple weeks that we can win against the Swans, we beat them twice last year so we must be able to draw some confidence out of that, plus we've won a couple of tough scraps the last 2 weeks. Swans have won 8 in a row I think so they're bound to play a bad game, I'm just hoping it's tomorrow.
Dramoth
Premium Platinum
the scum just lost another 2 players for their game this week
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #94
Again, while the possibility exists, I will explore hypotheticals.
Are these set of results impossible in current form?
Sydney d Carlton by 12
Geelong d West Coast by 30 (PS)
Carlton d Brisbane by 60 (E)
Carlton d Essendon by 30
West Coast d Port by 12 (AS)
Collingwood d West Coast by 30 (PS)
Carlton d Gold Coast by 100 (MS)
Carlton d St Kilda by 12 (E)
Hawthorn d West Coast by 60 (MCG)
If they happen, we beat West Coast by 1%.
Mind you, look at Freo. What if we did the above and Freo did this ...
Adelaide d Fremantle by 12 (AS)
Fremantle d Richmond by 30 (PS)
North d Fremantle by 12 (E)
Fremantle d Melbourne by 100 (PS)
We beat Fremantle by 1%.
Our future is still in our own hands. A win tomorrow and we are on the cusp, a loss and we are still a slight chance.
Are these set of results impossible in current form?
Sydney d Carlton by 12
Geelong d West Coast by 30 (PS)
Carlton d Brisbane by 60 (E)
Carlton d Essendon by 30
West Coast d Port by 12 (AS)
Collingwood d West Coast by 30 (PS)
Carlton d Gold Coast by 100 (MS)
Carlton d St Kilda by 12 (E)
Hawthorn d West Coast by 60 (MCG)
If they happen, we beat West Coast by 1%.
Mind you, look at Freo. What if we did the above and Freo did this ...
Adelaide d Fremantle by 12 (AS)
Fremantle d Richmond by 30 (PS)
North d Fremantle by 12 (E)
Fremantle d Melbourne by 100 (PS)
We beat Fremantle by 1%.
Our future is still in our own hands. A win tomorrow and we are on the cusp, a loss and we are still a slight chance.
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That's the bit I'm taking, sounds pithy but, we win tomorrow and we look to next week.
Still in it.
Dramoth
Premium Platinum
I agree... we keep going one week at a time until we are either out of the finals race altogether... or we have made the finals and are still going.
A biggish loss by Essendon tomorrow could see them outside the 8, with Freo moving into 8th position. Makes you wonder how long the 'Weapon' will be on the payroll at Windy Hill, Tullamarine, wherever they call home.
Decent chance WCE can miss on 13 wins and poor % with Fremantle, Carlton and North all getting through.
When I say decent chance, I know it's unlikely but it wouldn't surprise me to see Pies, Hawks and Cats all win decently against the Eagles. On 122%, they could easily fall to ~113% which we could easily get to.
A win tomorrow would be amazing though.
When I say decent chance, I know it's unlikely but it wouldn't surprise me to see Pies, Hawks and Cats all win decently against the Eagles. On 122%, they could easily fall to ~113% which we could easily get to.
A win tomorrow would be amazing though.
The Old Dark Navy's
Moderator
- Thread starter
- Moderator
- #99
Tigers being back in form might also give Freo something to think about. The good news is that Richmond have some chance of winning every game from here but can't make the finals. Go Tigers.
Some potential big suspensions happening... Pavilich will get pinged for a strike.. Milne could get cited for a dangerous slide.. Anything can happen... Felt sick to my stomach barracking for the pies tonight.
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