Betting systems

[Better Loosen Up]

Does anyone here work on betting systems?

I have been working on a fairly simple one but haven't tracked its performance as yet.... maybe someone here might be able to help?

So this is how it goes (rules)

1. Must have had 3 starts since a spell
2. Must have improved in the placings with each start and finished no worse than 4th last start
Eg: 8-5-2 is ok. 0-0-3, 8-7-5 or 3-1-1 is not.
3. Must be either racing at the same distance or stepping up in distance from their last run
(Rageese even though it won today, would not have been a selection as it was 1500m back to 1400m)
4. Must be no worse than 12-1 (opening quote) - (this I'm not 100% sure on yet)
5. Must be 8 or more runners in the race

Thoughts or feedback would be appreciated

 

[Bronwyn Bishop]

Sounds good. You'll be able to have about 3 bets a year with that.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

It's not quite that bad!

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Forgot to mention, bets would be E/W

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Sounds good. You'll be able to have about 3 bets a year with that.

That's the idea of a system... you are not betting on every race.... too hard to win that way.

So rather than 12-1 opening quote, maybe ease it to 20-1.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Saturday for example has the following:

MR5. #10 Streetwise Savoire - UNP
SR3. #6 Lucky Meteor - 3rd $1.90 place
AR2. #5 Halayr Jet - 2nd $2.40 place
AR7. #7 Streetwise Savoire - SCR

Cranbourne Friday night

MR7. #3 Lucky Prospector - UNP

 

[Watts4Dinner]

That sounds truly awful.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

That sounds truly awful.

Ok. Thanks.

 

[big_bazza]

Have you checked previous results using this formula to see how often this form leads to results?

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Ok. Thanks.

I'm not a fan of systems in general, but this one doesn't make much sense. I didn't mean to be curt.

 

[DemonDayz]

Horse racing has to many variables to see this system work long-term.

For example some horses relish running first up and some love it second up.
Also some horses dropping back in distance could be a positive for them.

Also I wouldn't worry to much about the odds.
Try an determine what the true odds are of each participant winning rather than the bookies which allow for their profit margins.

 

[DemonDayz]

Also could add with the progressively improved placings thing.

A horse could have a forgivable poor run on a wet track for example if it didn't like the conditions.
Then return to good track next time an run much better.
So you would have to factor this in
Same could apply for horses dropping in class.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Have you checked previous results using this formula to see how often this form leads to results?

No. I will need to try and track it for a while and see how it goes like with all systems. Most don't end up working but some people make a living using these things and they usually only involve 4 or 5 rules

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Horse racing has to many variables to see this system work long-term.

For example some horses relish running first up and some love it second up.
Also some horses dropping back in distance could be a positive for them.

Also I wouldn't worry to much about the odds.
Try an determine what the true odds are of each participant winning rather than the bookies which allow for their profit margins.

Fair enough.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Does anyone here work on betting systems?

I have been working on a fairly simple one but haven't tracked its performance as yet.... maybe someone here might be able to help?

So this is how it goes (rules)

1. Must have had 3 starts since a spell
2. Must have improved in the placings with each start and finished no worse than 4th last start
Eg: 8-5-2 is ok. 0-0-3, 8-7-5 or 3-1-1 is not.
3. Must be either racing at the same distance or stepping up in distance from their last run
(Rageese even though it won today, would not have been a selection as it was 1500m back to 1400m)
4. Must be no worse than 12-1 (opening quote) - (this I'm not 100% sure on yet)

Thoughts or feedback would be appreciated

puntingform have system predictors and this ones a bad one. like 20% loss.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

puntingform have system predictors and this ones a bad one. like 20% loss.

So it's been done before?

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Kempsey today

SR2 #9 Gypsy Jean
SR3 #5 Tonna Power

 

[FallingLiefs]

So it's been done before?

Can make your own made one best I could to match but it was bad.

 

[Jugada]

No. I will need to try and track it for a while and see how it goes like with all systems. Most don't end up working but some people make a living using these things and they usually only involve 4 or 5 rules

Do they? To be honest i dont think ive heard of anyone using systems like this to make a living unless they are trying to flog it off as a top system for people to buy their tips. Would genuinely be interested to know of people who make money with systems like this

 

[kickazz]

4 or 5 rules is not nearly enough I would think (if "systems" work at all).

The major corporate bookies employ multiple full-time data scientists and have software that tracks thousands of variables. If a combination of 4 or 5 variables outperformed the market it would stick out like a sore thumb and then probably get factored into the prices to the point where money cannot be made from it.

I say probably in that the other key factor is the market getting it wrong - if there is anything to be exploited in the world of punting (in my opinion) it is to lay a spruik horse. It is possible that despite what the data say, a bookmaker will still frame their market to protect against losses from a tide of money, even if it is on the wrong horse. I think the only* other way to really make money would be to watch a lot of replays.

But systems can be a bit of fun, and at the very least they can probably shift your EV from large negative to small negative, which is a good thing.





*besides corruption / inside info

 

[juss]

The thing with systems is they need to be tracked to see if it works, otherwise it's pointless. Give it a go for a few weeks, you don't actually have to place the bets to track it, but keep the data somewhere. See if it profits you, if you like it try it with some real money and re-assess. The more data you have the more reliable you can make the call. I would always say though, that there is no "betting system" that will ever be a sure thing, and so money management is more important than backing your system. Eg no matter how good your system is, I would never completely load up on it, in case that's the week you get burnt badly.

 

[iluvparis]

Liefs backtested it and it didn't work

 

[FallingLiefs]

In the last year backing DK weir horses 3rd to 20th start in prep placing the start previous is +25% POT

 

[Duritz]

Everything is a system, when you boil it down. even the guy who just does it off the replays is following a system. He will have certain things he is looking for on the replay to make a horse a selection, those things are his rules. Everything is a system.

 

[Jugada]

Nah that's far more fluid than following a set of rules like this. Lumping it all together as the same thing is just lazy