Beyond Round 8

[crowsfan]

Alright, so in the wake of the loss to the Pies last night, it seems like things are not what we hoped for. We are currently 4-3, but still in the top 8. Rnds 5-8 is our toughest 4 consecutive matches but beyond our clash with the Lions next Saturday, this is our schedule:

Rd / Team / Location:
9 / Bulldogs / Home
10 / Geelong / Skilled
11 / Hawthorn / MCG
12 / Melbourne / Home
13 / Carlton / Optus
14 / Richmond / Home
15 / Essendon / Home
16 / Fremantle / Subi
17 / St. Kilda / Home
18 / Sydney / Home
19 / West Coast / Subi
20 / Kangaroos / Home
21 / Port / Home (Away match though)

This seems like a fairly decent run. Rds 9 to 15 seem like very winnable matches at the moment. Some have mentioned that losing last night might have cost us a Top 4 finish, and maybe that might be an overreaction due to disappointment, but it seems like we've still got the chance to get a coverted Top 4 finish. Having said that, let's not hope that a repeat of last year happens, in that we do get in the Top 4, yet don't get a home final.

Yes, we are a bit depleted by injury at the moment, but our guys are not too far off from returing hopefully. After next Saturday, our most difficult runs is over and we can look forward to the next few weeks. Chin up, I say.

Comments, thoughts please.

 

[iceman21]

Having a look at those games you would think that we could realistically be a chance to win 9-11 out of the 13 which would leave us in a pretty strong position, but saying that if we get hit by any more bad injuries to key players we will probably struggle

Rd / Team / Location / chance to win
9 /Bulldogs/ home / Good
10 / Geelong / away / Good
11 / Hawthorn /away / Good
12 / Melbourne /home /Good
13 / Carlton / away / Good
14 / Richmond / Home / Fair
15 / Essendon / Home / Good
16 / Fremantle /away / Fair
17 / St Kilda / Home /Good
18 / Sydney /Home / Good
19 / West Coast /away / not good
20/ Kangaroos / home / good
21 / Port / home-away/ not good

 

[ant]

Oh yeah, I don't think anyone has given up on us yet.....4-4 isn't great, we're at least a game behind what we should at least be, but there's plenty of improvement still left in us.

Looking at the bigger picture, it's all about peaking up to a certain level of performance at the right times during the season, there's still a considerable number of games left, and personally I think a top 4 position is still WELL within our grasp (all things being equal). From there, anything can happen (love those cliches)

 

[DaveW]

Originally posted by crowsfan
20 / Kangaroos / Home
21 / Port / Home (Away match though)

Actually its:

20 Collingwood (Docklands)
21 North Melbourne (Football Park)
22 Port Adelaide (Football Park)

It looks like an EASIER run in the middle period, but Adelaide have never been a team to produce extensive winning streaks, so I bet we'd drop at least one or two of those very winnable games.

 

[Stiffy_18]

Re: Re: Beyond Round 8

Originally posted by DaveW
Actually its:

20 Collingwood (Docklands)
21 North Melbourne (Football Park)
22 Port Adelaide (Football Park)

It looks like an EASIER run in the middle period, but Adelaide have never been a team to produce extensive winning streaks, so I bet we'd drop at least one or two of those very winnable games.

I agree. Our longest winning streak is 5 games in a row and the most worrying sign so far this season is our inconsistency as far as wins go: WLWWLWL is not a way to go for a top 4 side.

I know we have lost those 3 games by 12 points or less but at the end of the day that doesn't really matter. Last year Saints lost 8 games by less that 2 goals and finished down the bottom. Win those 8 and they are in the finals. I think its time that we start winning those close games. All our wins this year have not been tight but every thight game that we have played we let it slip through our fingers.

 

[crowsfan]

Re: Re: Beyond Round 8

Originally posted by DaveW
Actually its:

20 Collingwood (Docklands)
21 North Melbourne (Football Park)
22 Port Adelaide (Football Park)

It looks like an EASIER run in the middle period, but Adelaide have never been a team to produce extensive winning streaks, so I bet we'd drop at least one or two of those very winnable games.

Whoops, sorry about the typo. But yes, there's still a lot of footy left, and I too believe a top 4 possie is realistically within our grasp. We can do it.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

What is clear about the draw is that we have a tough lead up to the finals, which isn't a bad thing as it should be good preparation. However, if we are going to give the flag a shake, then we need to be well entrenched in the top-4 before the last month, which means having a good run during the middle of the season. If we don't, we are likely to be just making up the numbers come finals time, which would be very disappointing!

 

[macca23]

Originally posted by crowsfan
Some have mentioned that losing last night might have cost us a Top 4 finish, and maybe that might be an overreaction due to disappointment

Can't speak for others but I certainly said that.

I didn't say it out of an overreaction due to disappointment.

If we lose to Brisbane, which is the likely result, we will be sitting 4-4.

Rounds 9-15 are all winnable games. History shows we have never won 7 on the trot. Being optimistic let's say 6.

That would make us 10-5 after round 15.

No-one could say with any certainty that we will win more than 3 out of our last 7 games.

That would make us 13-9 which might not get a top 4 spot this year.

This is presuming of course that we have no more major injuries.

I know it's all speculation, but I stick by what I said. That loss might well cost us a top 4 finish.

 

[crowsfan]

Re: Re: Beyond Round 8

Originally posted by macca23
Can't speak for others but I certainly said that.

I didn't say it out of an overreaction due to disappointment.

If we lose to Brisbane, which is the likely result, we will be sitting 4-4.

Rounds 9-15 are all winnable games. History shows we have never won 7 on the trot. Being optimistic let's say 6.

That would make us 10-5 after round 15.

No-one could say with any certainty that we will win more than 3 out of our last 7 games.

That would make us 13-9 which might not get a top 4 spot this year.

This is presuming of course that we have no more major injuries.

I know it's all speculation, but I stick by what I said. That loss might well cost us a top 4 finish.

What you said does make sense. However, even though we've never won 7 in a row, or even 6 in a row, it doesn't mean that we can't this year. We'll just have to make history this year. I'm also not arguing the fact that even with a 10-5 or even 11-4 record, it doesn't guarantee 3 wins in the last 7 matches, but surely, if we had that record, it would put us in strong favour of getting into the Top 4, due to the already generated momentum.

Having said all that, it's still a long way away, and a whole lot of things could happen before then. It seems this is where the old chiche of "One game at a time" applies. Let's just concentrate on the next match I guess, and try to have a positive frame-of mind.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yeah I said it too that losing to the Pies is likely to cost us a top-4 place, particularly given that Collingwood will be one of the teams we will be competing for a top-4 position. We will need an exception middle of the season now to make the top-4 or hope for a log-jam of sides making it easier to finish higher (with a good percentage). Make no mistake, we shot ourselves in the foot Saturday night!

 

[Stiffy_18]

Originally posted by Kane McGoodwin
Yeah I said it too that losing to the Pies is likely to cost us a top-4 place, particularly given that Collingwood will be one of the teams we will be competing for a top-4 position. We will need an exception middle of the season now to make the top-4 or hope for a log-jam of sides making it easier to finish higher (with a good percentage). Make no mistake, we shot ourselves in the foot Saturday night!

I said before the Collingwood game that it was crutial in the context of the season. After the game I said that our chances of top 4 are just about gone. But once the round has completed I think the results of other matches worked in our favour a bit especially with Port loosing to Melbourne which enabled us to stay in the top 4.

I still think we are in a bit of a strife as far as top 4 goes if, more like, when we loose to lions. 4-4 is just not a good enough start IMHO when up until now injuries have not been a major problem

 

[PAfolwr]

Re: Re: Beyond Round 8

Originally posted by macca23
If we lose to Brisbane, which is the likely result, we will be sitting 4-4.

Likely result, but you are not without a chance.

 

[snakebite01]

After the Brisbane game we should be realistically aiming to win 8 or 9 of the next 10 games to set up our season. Through this period we should be regaining Stevens, Carey, Smart, Welsh, Burton and maybe Reilly with the first 5 being huge inclusions. If we can win 8-9 of the 10 up until round 19 when we have a similarly tough last 4 weeks of the season then we should already be 12-13 wins heading into the last 4 rounds and with lots of confidence. From then on 2 out of the last 4 will be a good result leaving us with 14-15 wins which will easily be enough for a top 4 position. The teams are so equal this year that 13 wins will be enough to make the top4 especially with our excellent percentage. If nothing else, we must protect our percentage this saturday night.

 

[napsyd]

It's pretty clear that our season is in the balance.

I can see two scenarios developing after Round 8.

1. We win 5 or 6 of the next 7 matches and end the season somewhere between 3rd and 8th depending on the last few rounds. We end the season more or less making up the numbers.

2. We get our forward structure right and we win 7 of the next 7 matches which we all agree are all winnable. In so doing we create the sort of confidence that Brisbane generated around this time in 2001. We win the majority of the rest of our games and set ourselves as real premiership contenders.

At this time it is all unclear, but I still believe the rest of the draw gives us the time and a platform to find our structure and get the confidence we need to go all the way. Whether we have the fitness, luck and desire to do this is the key.

 

[PrideofSA]

What if we beat Brisbane....I know it wil be tough, but I see them as vulnerable and a 3 to 4 goal less side from last year.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Originally posted by PrideofSA
What if we beat Brisbane....I know it wil be tough, but I see them as vulnerable and a 3 to 4 goal less side from last year.

The problem is we are even more vulnerable with most of best forwards injured!

 

[napsyd]

Originally posted by PrideofSA
What if we beat Brisbane....I know it wil be tough, but I see them as vulnerable and a 3 to 4 goal less side from last year.

I never give up faith in our boys but this would seem like an extremely tall order given our forward line woes.

If we do beat them, well all the better!

 

[noddy]

Originally posted by Kane McGoodwin
The problem is we are even more vulnerable with most of best forwards injured!

Your right Kane we do look vulnerable with so many 1st choice players out of the side & i have a sneaking feeling the Lions might just see us in the same way despite Leigh Matthews pumping them up after their loss to Sydney,

if we can get on the front foot right from the first bounce & put a few doubts into their psyche well who knows maybe some of our lessor lights can stand up & make hero's of themselves,

if we can pull this one off under those sorts of odds well what a shot in the arm for all of us that would be.

I know there's a few ifs & buts in that lot but heck we gotta go up there with a positive outlook & feel that we can win.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Well we have dropped games now to St Kilda, Port & Collingwood - which most of us were expecting to win & we were favourites prior to these games. Now it is time to see the character of our players by playing a game that most tipsters will have us as underdogs. The coaching / playing staff owe us a decent game after some of the other efforts this year to show that they are not pretenders!

 

[tribey]

Originally posted by PrideofSA
What if we beat Brisbane....I know it wil be tough, but I see them as vulnerable and a 3 to 4 goal less side from last year.

We are going to get flogged.

 

[ok.crows]

The Crows draw has turned out harder than it seemed.

It is now round 7. In the first 7 rounds every teams plays those opponents that it will meet twice in that season. So far the Crows have played 5 sides who are in the current top 8 standings, and the other 2 sides are amongst the better sides out of the 8.

I can't think of any side that has had a similar set of higher-ranked opponents. And this is the set of opponents that the Crows play twice this year.

The one up-side is that following round 8 the Crows get to play against "all the others". It might be possible to build a fair bit of momentum in that period, and towards the end of the season (last 7 rounds) some of the current set of top 8 sides may have slipped in form.

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by dyertribe
We are going to get flogged.

I hope the Crows don't get flogged, but I do agree that it is not likely the Crows can win this week.

Too many Crows players out, Brisbane won't want to lose two straight.

 

[PrideofSA]

Originally posted by ok.crows
I hope the Crows don't get flogged, but I do agree that it is not likely the Crows can win this week.

Too many Crows players out, Brisbane won't want to lose two straight.

\

Nah I disagree, although I don't believe we will win and will tip Brisbane, I remember just a few weeks ago how easily we were going to beat St Kilda, and that they had no chance.

Remember we have beaten Brisbane the last 2 times for premiership points (not including that aweful, disgusting performance in the Qualifying Final last year)

So I still rate us as 30/ 70 chance of winning.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Originally posted by PrideofSA
\

Nah I disagree, although I don't believe we will win and will tip Brisbane, I remember just a few weeks ago how easily we were going to beat St Kilda, and that they had no chance.

The difference is that we went in with a lazy attitude given that we hadn't lost a game, including the pre-season. Matthews will be dirty after dropping last weeks game, so I can't see Brisbane entering this game with a slack attitude (& are in fact likely to be fired up).

 

[ClintEastwood]

Originally posted by PrideofSA
So I still rate us as 30/ 70 chance of winning.

I reckon that's about right