Bluemour Discussion Thread III

[gbatman]

Not sure getting a superstar next year would be that good for us. Raising up the ladder to mediocrity is only going to take valuable draft picks from us be devaluing those picks.

Getting Judd was only good because we were that bad at what we did. If we were really good at drafting and avoided Judd we would have kept a coleman medalist and used those early picks at the draft well. Getting Judd raised us up the ladder prematurely which meant we missed out of future early draft picks. Not saying there was no value in getting Judd but it cost us more draft picks and players than what we actually traded for him.

For what it's worth, I couldn't see us doing that deal again, I don't think Silvagni would have a bar of it. Happy to stay where we belong and absorb as many early draft picks as we can. I think when we make finals we can look at high profile players. Until then let's get our stars cheaply by drafting them and finding them young and injury prone through trades. Build quality and depth then add some extra cream but only when we have earned it.

 

[F_therest]

Not sure getting a superstar next year would be that good for us. Raising up the ladder to mediocrity is only going to take valuable draft picks from us be devaluing those picks.

Getting Judd was only good because we were that bad at what we did. If we were really good at drafting and avoided Judd we would have kept a coleman medalist and used those early picks at the draft well. Getting Judd raised us up the ladder prematurely which meant we missed out of future early draft picks. Not saying there was no value in getting Judd but it cost us more draft picks and players than what we actually traded for him.

For what it's worth, I couldn't see us doing that deal again, I don't think Silvagni would have a bar of it. Happy to stay where we belong and absorb as many early draft picks as we can. I think when we make finals we can look at high profile players. Until then let's get our stars cheaply by drafting them and finding them young and injury prone through trades. Build quality and depth then add some extra cream but only when we have earned it.

I think everyone on here agrees that we only want Fyfe if we can get him for free as a FA and don't want to give up high draft picks for him.

 

[Cripps17]

We needed better list management around Judd, not higher draft picks.

 

[F_therest]

I think you are underselling the "kids" Ftr.
Charlie and Cuningham already showing signs in the guts.
SPS mooted as No 1. 12 months out from last draft fell behind with injuries and "bandwagoning" for other kids.,
A rare talent we will see soon enough.
Really liking Polson from highlights, reports and his cameo in JLT. Fisher is a talent, but I feel will be a slow burn.
His size combined with his game traits/strengths is going to demand some physical development before impacting.
I don't discount Williamson ultimately being more mid than running back either, will be a "player" whichever way it goes.
We are not a 3 man band, even the role players particularly Curnow and even Kerridge, Smedts and Palmer deserve
more respect than this board offers.

Yeah I agree our list is in much better shape than it was when we got Judd...and will continue to improve under Bolton and sos.

However I stand by my notion that it would be far better to keep Gibbs if we get Fyfe, than trade him for something like pick 14.

Most people advocating for trading Gibbs argue that we won't get a premiership during his career, but get Fyfe while keeping Gibbs and being a premiership contender in 2020 is a realistic goal imo.

If we lose Gibbs I think it would set us back a year or two at least, since guys like sps and fisher are still a bit raw and unknown and our midfield is already so thin.

 

[gbatman]

I think everyone on here agrees that we only want Fyfe if we can get him for free as a FA and don't want to give up high draft picks for him.

I think you missed the point, having a guy like Fyfe is a bit of short term fun. A 25 year old with a suspect back, he might make it to when we're going to be up and about. But good chance he's going to lift all our draft picks up. We might miss out on 5 gun players because all our picks go up 5 spots. Makes getting Fyfe more damaging than beneficial. People don't seem to realise this is what getting Judd did to us. Everything comes at a cost. I don't think we are in a position where having mature age superstars are that valuable. Unless we are absolutely dreadful then I don't think we should go for Fyfe. It's a balancing act, we want to be good enough that our forwards are getting fed well enough to develop but we don't want to be up the middle of the ladder on the back of a few individuals.

 

[bmaurizio]

and Hughes before him

To fair to Hughes & Rogers, they did excel with some areas. Tuohy , Byrne and Sheean if he had followed the plan. Hoping he'll come now.
Jacobs , Betts and Garlett are not to shabby too.
However these rookie selections aside they were diabolicable in general and contributed
to a lost decade.

 

[The Bighouse]

If Lynch is truely a free agent we should offer him the biggest contract in history, front loading it of course.

Is Alastair making a comeback? Sounds familiar without the front loading back then.

 

[F_therest]

I think you missed the point, having a guy like Fyfe is a bit of short term fun. A 25 year old with a suspect back, he might make it to when we're going to be up and about. But good chance he's going to lift all our draft picks up. We might miss out on 5 gun players because all our picks go up 5 spots. Makes getting Fyfe more damaging than beneficial. People don't seem to realise this is what getting Judd did to us. Everything comes at a cost. I don't think we are in a position where having mature age superstars are that valuable. Unless we are absolutely dreadful then I don't think we should go for Fyfe. It's a balancing act, we want to be good enough that our forwards are getting fed well enough to develop but we don't want to be up the middle of the ladder on the back of a few individuals.

Ah ok I see what you mean, but I disagree.

I understand your concerns, but imo we will have done enough groundwork through the draft to warrant going after Fyfe.

By the end of this year, we would have hit the draft really hard 3 years in a row. At some point the value of simply stockpiling picks diminishes since you'll have too many kids all competing for few spots at the same time. Gws aren't a suitable comparison since they got concessions we could never match.

Plus, if we get Fyfe for free we can still continue to hit the draft hard over the next few years. Yes the picks might be lower since we finish up the ladder, but good teams can develop lower draft picks into stars.

If a star like Fyfe is available for free trade wise, we should absolutely be going hard to make sure he comes to us.

I don't think it will hinder us in the long run which seems to be your concern , I think it will help us be contenders by 2020.

 

[Iamcarlton]

I think you missed the point, having a guy like Fyfe is a bit of short term fun. A 25 year old with a suspect back, he might make it to when we're going to be up and about. But good chance he's going to lift all our draft picks up. We might miss out on 5 gun players because all our picks go up 5 spots. Makes getting Fyfe more damaging than beneficial. People don't seem to realise this is what getting Judd did to us. Everything comes at a cost. I don't think we are in a position where having mature age superstars are that valuable. Unless we are absolutely dreadful then I don't think we should go for Fyfe. It's a balancing act, we want to be good enough that our forwards are getting fed well enough to develop but we don't want to be up the middle of the ladder on the back of a few individuals.

I think sos may have already proven that he can draft quality wherever we sit in the draft . Really impressed with the players he drafted from last years draft . This staying low on the ladder to get better players because they go earlier in the draft than if we were higher is just an excuse for a poor recruiting team which i doubt very much we have now with sos . Quality players come from all parts of a draft period not just early picks . Given the salary cap increase coming up and the massive discrepency or amount of money we are going to have to spend to even come up to the minimum salary cap spend after a number of higher paid players again leave the club . A high paid fyfe or similar FA or 2 is a no brainer really . Things are a lot different now to when juddy was first drafted , i think its safe to say we have people running the club now who know what their doing .

 

[Kramer1]

Don't go for superstar free agents because they might make us better?

We didn't miss out on gun kids because we got Judd. We missed out on gun kids because we picked passed over the gun kids for the likes of Lucas, Bootsma, Watson and a host of second and third round duds.

We compounded that with stupid moves at the trade table.

Then we let a unhinged senior citizen run the show for a few years.

Sliding doors. Half a dozen better decisions and maybe we play off in a GF in 2011.

 

[Kramer1]

I think sos may have already proven that he can draft quality wherever we sit in the draft . Really impressed with the players he drafted from last years draft

He's put us in a good position with some canny moves at the trade table, but he hasn't proven a thing yet (at Carlton) with regard to identifying talent.

 

[Iamcarlton]

He's put us in a good position with some canny moves at the trade table, but he hasn't proven a thing yet (at Carlton) with regard to identifying talent.

Really! you dont like the kids hes drafted so far ? Once their in its then the coachs responsibility to develop them thereafter . But if you cant see the talent in most of the players hes drafted well then you dont want to see it .
As opposed to the past where instead of backing our drafting which turned out to be pretty much useless . Wed bring in mature age players from other clubs such as jones tutt etc etc that also went the same way .

 

[Malifice]

Let's hope Gibbs stays.

I hope he leaves. Its best for the club long term, and its what he and his partner want.

If we get Fyfe and keep Gibbs we suddenly are a top 8 chance and top 4 chance in a few years if we sort out our forward line.

Judd/ Messiah mentality mate, and its not in the best interest of the club.

We are going to languish down the bottom of the ladder for the 3-4 years, pushing back up into the 8 2020/ 2021. We are 2 drafts into a rebuild (and the players from draft 2 haven't even played a game in anger yet). We have another 2 drafts to go, and then a year or two to get games into the kids, and gel as a team.

And that's if we nail every single pick. We're coming from a long way back.

No point getting Fyfe at his age if we then lose Gibbs...because then we still won't be ready.

Mate, we will not be even close to ready for the next 3-4 years, Gibbs or no Gibbs.

Embrace that. Get with it. It'll make the next 3-4 years much more enjoyable if you do.

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[Kramer1]

Really! you dont like the kids hes drafted so far ? Once their in its then the coachs responsibility to develop them thereafter . But if you cant see the talent in most of the players hes drafted well then you dont want to see it .
As opposed to the past where instead of backing our drafting which turned out to be pretty much useless . Wed bring in mature age players from other clubs such as jones tutt etc etc that also went the same way .

Where did I say I don't like his selections? I just don't agree that SOS is proven as a recruiter...only time can prove that.

 

[SafeAsMilk]

We can't just rely on draft picks to rebuild when teams like Swans and GWS keep getting multiple high end picks to add to their already strong lists.

We need to use every avenue of bringing talent into the club. Draft, trade (players and future picks), Free Agency, and maximising the salary cap.

 

[gbatman]

I think sos may have already proven that he can draft quality wherever we sit in the draft . Really impressed with the players he drafted from last years draft . This staying low on the ladder to get better players because they go earlier in the draft than if we were higher is just an excuse for a poor recruiting team which i doubt very much we have now with sos . Quality players come from all parts of a draft period not just early picks . Given the salary cap increase coming up and the massive discrepency or amount of money we are going to have to spend to even come up to the minimum salary cap spend after a number of higher paid players again leave the club . A high paid fyfe or similar FA or 2 is a no brainer really . Things are a lot different now to when juddy was first drafted , i think its safe to say we have people running the club now who know what their doing .

You need to hit plenty of early picks just like you need to hit a good amount of late ones to win a premiership. Very confident we can draft these days as well but we will see. We wanted a quick fix and had little confidence in finding stars in the draft in the Judd area. We seem confident now and we know that you have to be confident with drafting or there's no point. I think we're on the right track, we haven't broken the bank at all yet, got some great bargains, focused on talls, we need a few years of early picks to build the midfield. When we build the midfield we'll move up the ladder. Have to agree meeting the minimum TPP could be an issue with a young list though, that's the other side of the coin.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Where did I say I don't like his selections? I just don't agree that SOS is proven as a recruiter...only time can prove that.

Well i think the gws list is a fair indication and going by his first 2 drafts at carlton id say hes on the right track there too . I said he was proven in bringing talent in from there as i said its a development issue whether that talent transfer to results .

 

[Soapy V]

We can't just rely on draft picks to rebuild when teams like Swans and GWS keep getting multiple high end picks to add to their already strong lists.

We need to use every avenue of bringing talent into the club. Draft, trade (players and future picks), Free Agency, and maximising the salary cap.

Draft picks are needed to build the core of the list especially over the first few years of a rebuild. We just don't need 1 or 2 players, we need 30. Trades are fine as long as they don't cost too much and fit the criteria of good skills and under 22. At this stage you don't want to be trading 2 x first rounders or a 1st & 2nd round pick for a player no matter how good.

Free agency is good but don't bring in just anyone for the sake of it. Need to still be young enough, good skills and of good character.

When in 2-3 years we believe we have a core of 30 plus that can take us forward then chase 1 or 2 "big fishes". At that point we should have enough Salary Cap room to get anyone we want

 

[Malifice]

Ah ok I see what you mean, but I disagree.

I understand your concerns, but imo we will have done enough groundwork through the draft to warrant going after Fyfe.

By the end of this year, we would have hit the draft really hard 3 years in a row.

And then at the start of season 2018 our core team will consist largely of 18 year olds (who haven't played a game) 19 year olds (who will have played a dozen or so games) and 20 year olds from the Weitering draft class (who will have played 10-40 games).

You dont make the 8 with a team like that. We will finish down the bottom again in 2018. We will again go to the draft.

In season 2019 the Weitering class of '15 will be up to the 50 odd game mark, and will be big bodied and experienced enough to hold their own. The others under them will need more time. We will finish near the middle-bottom of the ladder. We hit the draft again.

In season 2020 Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Silvagni, Cunners will all be 23, with around 70-100 games under their belts. As will blokes like Pickett, Marchbank and Plowman. SPS, Macreadie, Fisher, Poulson and co will all have 50 odd games into their legs. Cripps and Docherty will be aged 25-26 with 150 odd games to their names. Our 2017 draftees will have 20-40 games into them. We will still be blooding the 2018 draftees. We will now be experienced enough to push into the 8. We trade heavily in the 2020 draft to fill any remaining list deficiencies with 24-26 year old players (and F/A).

From 2021 onwards we compete and play finals. If we set our team up properly between now and then, our window to challenge stays open from 2021-2025, and we have the foundations to stay competing long afterwards.

We need to use the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts to acquire the following players for that window of 2021-2025 (and beyond):

• 4-6 x A grade midfielders, with at least 1 (and hopefully 2) being elite (to replace Murph, Simpson, Gibbs, Curnow, Thomas, and work alongside SPS and Cripps)
  
• 1-2 x KPF, with at least one being capable of kicking 60+ goals per year (our forward line is a disgrace, with only a plethora of mid sized HFF with SOS and Curnow, a promising small forward in Pickett, a mis-kicking 27 year old CHF, and a single untproven 19 y/o KPF)
  
• 1 x Elite ruck (to replace Kruezer)

It'll take 3 drafts to get all the above, and we will need to basically nail every single pick to get there.

If you're on the list at present and you're over 26 years old, you wont be seeing finals again in your career while playing for us. Your only role in the team is to provide experience, protect the kids, and to stop regular 20 goal hidings.

 

[Aphrodite]

 

[Malifice]

Hey Aph, my bad here - can you split the list management stuff and whack it in the other thread?

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Where did I say I don't like his selections? I just don't agree that SOS is proven as a recruiter...only time can prove that.

He didn't make many mistakes at GWS...

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Don't go for superstar free agents because they might make us better?

We didn't miss out on gun kids because we got Judd. We missed out on gun kids because we picked passed over the gun kids for the likes of Lucas, Bootsma, Watson and a host of second and third round duds.

We compounded that with stupid moves at the trade table.

Then we let a unhinged senior citizen run the show for a few years.

Sliding doors. Half a dozen better decisions and maybe we play off in a GF in 2011.

And Fev, we'd be winning it not just making a GF.

That Brownlow night was a sliding door moment

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Draft picks are needed to build the core of the list especially over the first few years of a rebuild. We just don't need 1 or 2 players, we need 30. Trades are fine as long as they don't cost too much and fit the criteria of good skills and under 22. At this stage you don't want to be trading 2 x first rounders or a 1st & 2nd round pick for a player no matter how good.

Free agency is good but don't bring in just anyone for the sake of it. Need to still be young enough, good skills and of good character.

When in 2-3 years we believe we have a core of 30 plus that can take us forward then chase 1 or 2 "big fishes". At that point we should have enough Salary Cap room to get anyone we want

Not bringing in anyone, we are talking about the best player in the comp.

Where's the salary cap going to in the next 2 years, it's mandatory to pay 95%....we already know Gibbs has been given 2/3 of his long term contract, Murphy would be the same and you can bet your last dollar Cripps also. Where is the 95% of an expanding salary cap going to?

You can pay 4 mill of a 6 year contract to Fyfe in the first 2 years and still have trouble meeting the minimum.

Fyfe is a no brainer

I will add the minimum requirement of the cap is the most stupidest rule in the history of AFL rules, just encourages paying spuds non spud money