Bolivian Election

[spinynorman]

Delayed twice, the Bolivian election is being held today.

Long term incumbent President Evo Morales won last year's election, which were found in an investigation by the Organization of American States to have found significant irregularities (this report itself was later found to be deeply flawed and has widely been discredited). Morales announced fresh elections, but was forced out by a US State Department backed coup. Morales fled to Mexico and then Argentina, where he remains in exile, and unable to run in today's election as a warrant is out for his arrest for sedition and terrorism.

The interim President, Jeanine Anez, proved divisive from her first moments as President, holding a ceremony of returning the Bible to the Presidential Palace (Morales was a secularist) and inviting a priest to perform a ritual to remove the Satanic Demons from the residency (Morales was Bolivia's first indigenous President). Her polling has been abysmal throughout her tenure as President and she has dropped out of the election.

All polls indicate Luis Arce from Morales' Movement to Socialism (MAS) party as the clear leader, with the centrist Carlos Mesa as his strongest opponent. The coup government have repeatedly inferred they will resist a return to government for MAS, and with yesterday's developments of several electoral observers being arrested and an Argentine diplomat allegedly assaulted on arrival at La Paz Airport, this undoubtedly significant day in South American democracy risks being something very ugly.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It's a shame they annulled the previous election, but it was probably worth it to stop Morales becoming a dictator. His party winning without him is the best outcome.

 

[spinynorman]

I agree that Morales shouldn't have stood for that one last term and should have began looking at stronger succession planning. But, even if all the worst of the vote rigging allegations had been proven to be correct, nobody ever said that he didn't receive the most votes in last year's election. Undoubtedly he would win a free election, it's just the extent of the margin that can be argued.

The far greater threat of dictatorship at this time is the coup government's giving up power with the outcome of an MAS victory. They only agreed to finally go ahead with this election after a general strike forced their hand. The best voting ballot outcome for the right today is getting Arce into a runoff election.

As is, Bolivians have woken this election day to a militarised country.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I agree that Morales shouldn't have stood for that one last term and should have began looking at stronger succession planning. But, even if all the worst of the vote rigging allegations had been proven to be correct, nobody ever said that he didn't receive the most votes in last year's election. Undoubtedly he would win a free election, it's just the extent of the margin that can be argued.

That's not what I was referring to. I meant him going against the constitution he himself had pushed for, to get rid of term limits. I wonder if the votes were rigged on the approval referendum too.

The far greater threat of dictatorship at this time is the coup government's giving up power with the outcome of an MAS victory.

At this time, yes. But not in 2019.

 

[spinynorman]

After a relatively peaceful election day (albeit with long lines a thousand deep in poorer neighbourhoods versus turn up and vote in more affluent ones), the vote count is slowly coming in and seem to show MAS leading (and with Morales declaring that the numbers coming from their scrutineers have shown an easy victory for MAS).

Exit polls that were meant to have been released shortly after voting closed have still not been released, with some election observers expressing concern about the delays here.

 

[spinynorman]

Exit poll gives an overwhelming win to MAS, substantially bigger than last year's election.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers come in, and the response of the coup government.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

What do the Americans want?

 

[DaRick]

Exit poll gives an overwhelming win to MAS, substantially bigger than last year's election.

It will be interesting to see how the numbers come in, and the response of the coup government.

When I look at this and this, I'm not that surprised.

Morales was basically a slightly more low-key version of Chavez, in that he benefited from oil price hikes and distributed money downwards instead of upwards.

Luckily for Bolivia, they don't rely on oil as heavily as Venezuela, nor have they been sanctioned by the US/West to the same degree, so their economy didn't collapse when the oil prices dropped.