Burgans Phantom Draft - Pies

[didaka]

Well it probably won't be Hill at 11

Dockers settle on Hill, with a proviso

27th November 2008, 8:30 WST

Fremantle will draft West Perth midfielder Stephen Hill with the third selection in Saturday’s national draft, unless Melbourne or West Coast pull a major surprise with the first two picks.
The West Australian understands that the Dockers yesterday finalised their pecking order for the draft and ranked Hill slightly ahead of Subiaco midfielder Daniel Rich. Hill stormed into calculations as a top three pick after impressing at the under-18 national championships, performing well for West Perth’s league team during the finals and breaking records at the AFL draft camp.
But Rich’s two outstanding seasons for Subiaco, where he played in league premierships as a teenager, meant the Dockers took a long time to settle on their preferred player.
Coach Mark Harvey refused to disclose the club’s decision yesterday but said Fremantle’s selection could still be changed if the Demons or Eagles produced shock selections. It is widely believed that Melbourne will pick Victorian key forward Jack Watts at No. 1 and West Coast will follow that by snaring Swan Districts ruckman Nick Naitanui.
But Harvey said, unlike previous years, Fremantle hadn’t been able to confirm the selections of other clubs before flying to Victoria.
“There’s a bit of conjecture as in what Melbourne may be doing at the moment,” Harvey said.
“I don’t think they’ve gone cold on Watts. I just think the Naitanui factor has been growing on them. That’s not a direct conversation I’ve had with Melbourne, but that’s what we hear at the moment.
“Normally three days out from the draft, everyone knows the top-10 picks but that’s not the case in this particular draft.”
Harvey said Fremantle would utilise all eight of their selections on Saturday. The Dockers have picks three, 21, 24, 37, 53, 56, 68 and 77, and Harvey said the recruiting staff had been given criteria to follow.
“We need to ramp up our midfield. There’s no question about that. On top of that we need a couple of keyposition guys that can play forward and back. Naturally a ruckman comes into consideration too along the way,” he said.

West Coast have selections two, 18, 20, 36 and 52, but the club wouldn’t comment about the draft.

 

[didaka]

The word that Freo is taking Hill keeps getting stronger

if so one of these 3 will slip according to Burgo, the rest of the top 10 is locked in...

Yarran, Sidebottom or Trengove.

One thing for sure is that the top 10 isn't locked in until it's all been called out on Saturday.

Something different will happen, believe that.

 

[Chase the Ace]

They are.

See, with a little thinking, eventually you get it

 

[smiddaz123]

Matt Burgan says:

Since publishing my Phantom Draft at 2pm AEDT on Wednesday, it has been revealed that Fremantle will almost certainly be selecting Stephen Hill with pick No.3.

As a result, I have reordered the first 20 picks as follows:

1. Jack Watts (Melbourne)
2. Nick Naitanui (West Coast)
3. Stephen Hill (Fremantle)
4. Hamish Hartlett (Port Adelaide)
5. Daniel Rich (Essendon)
6. Michael Hurley (Carlton)
7. Chris Yarran (Brisbane Lions)
8. Tyrone Vickery (Richmond)
9. Jack Ziebell (North Melbourne)
10. Jackson Trengove (Adelaide)
11. Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood)
12. Lewis Johnston (Sydney Swans)
13. Tom Lynch (St Kilda)
14. Ayce Cordy (Western Bulldogs)
15. Ashley Smith (Geelong)
16. Sam Blease (Hawthorn)
17. Ryan Schoenmakers (Melbourne)
18. Tom Swift (West Coast)
19. Dayne Beams (Melbourne)
20. Phil Davis (West Coast)

 

[DWil6]

See, with a little thinking, eventually you get it

Thank god we cleared that up.

 

[mdc]

Sidebottom would make me very nervous.

Sure, he's a terrific kick, but I'm not sure whether he'll be able to find the space to use it. Also wouldn't help our already defensively-challenged midfield.

 

[smiddaz123]

Sidebottom is close to the smartest player of the draft imo.

He tested very poorly in the 20m sprint, but when you watch him he doesn't seem that slow.

He's a step ahead of everyone else most of the time. He could play the game well at a jog.

He reminds me of Bartel, nearly everything about him does really. I've been a Steele fan for ages. For the past few weeks my two preferences have become Swift or Sidebottom. Either one at 11 and I'm thrilled.

 

[Stats right]

Re: Burgans Phantom Draft about Pies

Matthew Do Boer

Interesting story about de Boer (not Do Boer ) in todays West by Craig O'Donoghue. Very impressive kid who can play!

Mentions Draft Camp, Interviews, Managers, reasons why he did not nominate last year and a comparison to Palmers's 2007 stats in relation to de Boer's 2008 stats-very close!
14 games Palmer 251 and de Boer 243. Both need to work on their kicking!

I will be watching with interest which club takes him in the Draft on Sat!
Could become a great player if given an opportunity!

 

[Dave The Man]

Blease and Beams just shortened if that new order is close to the money

1. Jack Watts (Melbourne)
2. Nick Naitanui (West Coast)
3. Stephen Hill (Fremantle)
4. Hamish Hartlett (Port Adelaide)
5. Daniel Rich (Essendon)
6. Michael Hurley (Carlton)
7. Chris Yarran (Brisbane Lions)
8. Tyrone Vickery (Richmond)
9. Jack Ziebell (North Melbourne)
10. Jackson Trengove (Adelaide)
11. Steele Sidebottom (Collingwood)
12. Lewis Johnston (Sydney Swans)
13. Tom Lynch (St Kilda)
14. Ayce Cordy (Western Bulldogs)
15. Ashley Smith (Geelong)
16. Sam Blease (Hawthorn)
17. Ryan Schoenmakers (Melbourne)
18. Tom Swift (West Coast)
19. Dayne Beams (Melbourne)
20. Phil Davis (West Coast)

Why did he change all of a Sudden giving us Steele but Beams has gone to 19?

 

[well left]

Why did he change all of a Sudden giving us Steele but Beams has gone to 19?

Obviously the mail on Hill means he goes from our pick to #3 and allows Sidebottom to slide to #11 but I am unsure why that would change what Melbourne does at #19. He originally had them taking a KP in Lynch and then a ruckman in Roughead. Lynch is now going earlier so Melbourne takes Schoenmakers instead of Lynch. I can't see why that would then prompt them to go for a mid in Beams rather than Roughhead - it's not like Schoenmakers would pinch hit in the ruck.....

 

[Dave The Man]

Obviously the mail on Hill means he goes from our pick to #3 and allows Sidebottom to slide to #11 but I am unsure why that would change what Melbourne does at #19. He originally had them taking a KP in Lynch and then a ruckman in Roughead. Lynch is now going earlier so Melbourne takes Schoenmakers instead of Lynch. I can't see why that would then prompt them to go for a mid in Beams rather than Roughhead - it's not like Schoenmakers would pinch hit in the ruck.....

Then what happens with our pick 29?

 

[Bloben]

I bet you Freo end up getting someone other than Hill anyway.

 

[well left]

Then what happens with our pick 29?

There's the problem with him revising the top 20 only and bringing Beams in. Roughhead now slides out of the top 20 and Fremantle could grab him in front of McKernan.

Someone from the top 28 slips down, possibly a Post or Lisle or we go for the next mid on our list which could be a Hannebery or go for another inside mid like Suban.

 

[mdc]

It changes everything because suddenly Essendon doesn't go for a Key Backman because Rich is available and Carlton doesn't go for a small forward because Hurley is available.. and that domino effect just keeps going down the line

...except by pick 11 we're at exactly at the same point as we were in the previous edition of the draft.

Beams moving up to 19 has nothing to do with Hill - most likely Burgan's heard a whisper, or Melbourne's trying to bluff to force us to take him at 11.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Not really because Essendon for instance would still need a KP backman and Carlton would still want a small forward at some stage so the changes would canon down the line right through the rounds

Yeah, but not with Melbourne taking a KP at #1, another KP at #17 and then a ruckman at #19. Those things would change Essendon's #23 pick, and Carlton's later picks, but not Melbourne's #19 pick.

All of a sudden, despite their KP picks remaining the same, Melbourne has changed their mind from wanting a ruckman at #19, to wanting a midfielder? Seems unlikely.

The point is, Burgan has changed some picks, most likely based on some criticism of his phantom draft, but he hasn't actually changed his whole phantom and shown what might happen.

 

[Dave The Man]

The point is, Burgan has changed some picks, most likely based on some criticism of his phantom draft, but he hasn't actually changed his whole phantom and shown what might happen.

But would that also be what he might of heard in the last week and not just Joe Blog saying that it was wrong?

 

[well left]

Yeah, but not with Melbourne taking a KP at #1, another KP at #17 and then a ruckman at #19. Those things would change Essendon's #23 pick, and Carlton's later picks, but not Melbourne's #19 pick.

All of a sudden, despite their KP picks remaining the same, Melbourne has changed their mind from wanting a ruckman at #19, to wanting a midfielder? Seems unlikely.

The point is, Burgan has changed some picks, most likely based on some criticism of his phantom draft, but he hasn't actually changed his whole phantom and shown what might happen.

Yeah I agree. He's probably looked back at it or someone's told him that Melbourne will use on of the first 3 picks on a mid so he has had to change it.

 

[mdc]

With different players available it potentially changes every selection and would naturally change his mind about most 1st round selections.. he would hardly change selections based on criticism, that would be ridiculous

...I imagine vinny meant criticism from club sources, not from bigfooty

 

[mdc]

As if Burgo would give a rats arse.. as if the clubs would be bothered when they are gearing up for the real thing

"Burgo" clearly does give a rats arse, since he goes to the trouble of trying to gather as much info as possible and compiled a detailed mock. And again, criticism doesn't mean "your mock was rubbish, Burgo, you're useless!". It means someone from another club might have called him up and said "we're pretty sure Lynch won't go within the top 30, you have him too high".

Or, as I said earlier, it's likely Melbourne themselves called him up and said "we're taking Beams with one of our priority picks". Now, that doesn't mean they will - they're likely trying to pressure us into taking him at 11, as I said.

You have to understand, the reason people speak to him at all is because they know they'll be able to use the mock draft to advantage. Often club sources will give him credible information, but sometimes I'm sure they'll give him bogus info on purpose to try to manipulate other clubs.

 

[Kirby]

See, with a little thinking, eventually you get it

I'd be so lost without you, sweetheart.

 

[Dave The Man]

"Burgo" clearly does give a rats arse, since he goes to the trouble of trying to gather as much info as possible and compiled a detailed mock. And again, criticism doesn't mean "your mock was rubbish, Burgo, you're useless!". It means someone from another club might have called him up and said "we're pretty sure Lynch won't go within the top 30, you have him too high".

Or, as I said earlier, it's likely Melbourne themselves called him up and said "we're taking Beams with one of our priority picks". Now, that doesn't mean they will - they're likely trying to pressure us into taking him at 11, as I said.

You have to understand, the reason people speak to him at all is because they know they'll be able to use the mock draft to advantage. Often club sources will give him credible information, but sometimes I'm sure they'll give him bogus info on purpose to try to manipulate other clubs.

That is a good point some of his picks could be on Porky Pies but would clubs even read the mock draft?

 

[zorbadunde]

guys i think in the end hine will pull something out of his backside and we will all be wondering what the hell was he thinking. then next year we will say "god he's good"

 

[Dave The Man]

guys i think in the end hine will pull something out of his backside and we will all be wondering what the hell was he thinking. then next year we will say "god he's good"

I was thinking about the Lately I don't think it will be at pick 11 but after that well Anything can happen

 

[HFF]

I'm starting to get a little bit more confident in selecting Swift at 11.

It is now definitely down to 3 names just as Inside footy predicted- Swift, Sidebottom or Beams.

I think Hine will roll the dice with Beams and hope he is available at 29 and in the end there is too much of a connection to Swift that will be too hard to overlook and therefore Hine will take him with pick 11. (i.e. he did his AIS internship with us, Collingwood fan, height/speed/endurance combo etc.)

 

[Dave The Man]

I'm starting to get a little bit more confident in selecting Swift at 11.

It is now definitely down to 3 names just as Inside footy predicted- Swift, Sidebottom or Beams.

I think Hine will roll the dice with Beams and hope he is available at 29 and in the end there is too much of a connection to Swift that will be too hard to overlook and therefore Hine will take him with pick 11. (i.e. he did his AIS internship with us, Collingwood fan, height/speed/endurance combo etc.)

Does look like Inside Footy might be Right and I agree confidence that is Swift has gone up a Bit but still no where certain