Can a side ever go undefeated ?? Is it possible ?

[mianfei]

On another note it is easier to produce a salary cap for a sport that played at an elite level in one country, such as AFL or NFL in the states, than a sport that is played world-wide.

“The Ball”,

that’s an interesting comment which I have never seen in analysis of sports economics. However, at least in terms of the possibility of teams achieving a perfect season, the presence of a salary cap is more than compensated for by the larger talent pool of sports played more widely. For a team to achieve a perfect season, it is very helpful if there are very few players of the requisite quality. This is a problem inherent in a sport that cannot be played in the crowded and mountainous lands of the Enriched and Tropical Worlds because of its space requirements (football) or a sport that requires very specialised training and equipment (gridiron).

I certainly believe Essendon is capable of going undefeated, although ift would require an extreme and unlikely supply of luck.

What I began to realise during Essendon’s long run in 2000 is that:

1. they were not really playing any better than West Coast in April and May of 1991, Carlton for most of 1995, or even the Blues of April 1988.
   1. the dominance of the champion Eagle defence in April and May of 1991 was such that they allowed ten goals less per game than their opponents averaged against all other opposition
      1. Their nearest rival, Essendon, allowed forty more points per game relative to opposition attacks
   2. that would over a full season be equivalent to conceding:
      1. 880 points fewer than the second best defence sides over a full AFL season!
      2. 1,320 points fewer that the average of the other fourteen sides over a full AFL season!
   3. Essendon in 2000 never came close to such a record
   4. nor did even St. Kilda in 2009 who conceded fewer points than the 1991 Eagles
2. however, the absence of wet games via a closed roof stadium made it much easier for a team to maintain exceptional form than it was before Waverley was closed (and even more vis-à-vis before the suburban grounds were closed)
   1. Essendon in 2000 showed this in a way that gradually seeped into my consciousness
   2. Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood at various points since have also shown how a perfect 25-nil season is less impossible today than when suburban grounds were in use and the climate generally wetter.

People do say a side cannot go undefeated; however, looking say at West Coast’s dominance in April and May of 1991 makes me think it was only the weather and slow grounds that stopped them. The way they played in April and May the 1991 Eagles would have dominated a full season even more than Essendon did in 2000 if Docklands had existed. The only doubt I have about their remaining undefeated with today’s level of ground rationalisation is their narrow loss to that era’s quintessential fair-weather team - Carlton - on a muddy Princes Park. Still, at the very least one could predict a 21-1 season with a percentage better than Essendon in 2000 or Geelong in 2008.

If a team as good as the Eagles of April and May 1991 does develop, it is very possible it could go straight through undefeated, especially with global warming likely to dry the climate even more.

 

[TheKanga]

St Kilda, Collingwood & Geelong came pretty close in recent seasons.

 

[mianfei]

St Kilda, Collingwood & Geelong came pretty close in recent seasons.

What that does do is prove my point that ground rationalistion, Docklands and climate change have made it less tough to go through without a loss. It is in my interest to examine the past - and I have the knowledge of weather necessary - to see if this contention can be supported. There is one possible case from a century ago that I think may also support my contention in this regard, but discussing it is severely off-topic.

 

[sherb]

Of course it's possible.

Impossible is the Nar Nar Goon Under 18s going through the AFL season undefeated.

 

[Franc de Borges]

Possible but highly unlikely, especially given that just 8 of the last 23 premiers (since 1990) have won the minor premiership.

 

[Mitt Romney]

St Kilda, Collingwood & Geelong came pretty close in recent seasons.

Although they did come close in recent seasons, the greatest irony is that none of those teams won that respective premiership (assuming you are referring to 2009, 2011 and 2008)

 

[FootyJunkie]

Too much pressure as it gets to the business end of the season. See the New England Patriots in the NFL from a few seasons back.

I think Essendon did it right in 2000, dropped the penultimate game to the Dogs, it was a good loss and all the talk of an undefeated season pissed off. Focus was then put on the real prize, the flag!

 

[dymot]

Too much pressure as it gets to the business end of the season. See the New England Patriots in the NFL from a few seasons back.

I think Essendon did it right in 2000, dropped the penultimate game to the Dogs, it was a good loss and all the talk of an undefeated season pissed off. Focus was then put on the real prize, the flag!

Sides now seem to be willing to drop matches when not needing to win. Geelong in 2011 were happy to do so.

 

[MrRockett24]

St Kilda, Collingwood & Geelong came pretty close in recent seasons.

When was collingwoods recent season for "close to undefeated"????

Losing 3 games may qualify for close to undefeated, however Collingwood lost in Rd 8. Not close to an undefeated season. At least Saints went til round 20 or so until they lost a game.

Id also rate that as better than Geelongs 2008 Season. Losing a game at Rd 8 is not good enough and by 96 points...no chance.

Even though both teams lost 3 games for the year...id rate St.Kildas 2009 as a better season than Collingwoods 2011 only becasue they went on a longer winning streak.

 

[Shoei]

Interesting reading from 2000 considering only 4 years later Arsenal would go undefeated during the 2003-2004 Premier league season and stretch that run to 49 games.

Juventus in the Italian Serie A also went the whole of last season undefeated and , funnily enough, were finally defeated on the weekend ending their streak at 49 games as well.

Can it be done in the AFL? Of course it can be done and will probably will be.

 

[mianfei]

Can it be done in the AFL? Of course it can be done and will probably will be.

In a sense it’s overdue since it has occurred in most other “short-season” team sports.

It is fair to say that in 2012 there was no really outstanding team as there has been in such seasons as 2011, 2007-2009, 2000, 1995, 1991, 1988-1989, 1987, 1985 or 1979. There can be short-term trends in this respect, but the issue is that if for whatever reason a really outstanding team arises without a rival, it has a better chance of going undefeated than ever before simply because one of the historical barriers to this - the shorter type of player required in really wet weather - has been eliminated by ground rationalisation and the replacement of Waverley by Docklands. (I wonder if I was the first to detect the difference this made - and I will confess I did not expect the difference to be as great because the media never discussed it for fear of criticism of AFL policy).

 

[Doss]

mianfei! Keep those 11-year bumps coming

I remember thinking it was almost inevitable that St Kilda would do it in 2009, until we- completely inexplicably- beat them.

I likewise felt the same about Collingwood until their loss to Geelong in Round 8 of 2011. They just seemed to have a sense of complete inevitability about them.

 

[AFLOnline]

Of course it's possible.

Impossible is the Nar Nar Goon Under 18s going through the AFL season undefeated.

lol nar nar goon. that is some funny words

 

[AFLOnline]

If any team is ever going to do it, I'd back the Giants or the Suns to in the next few years. dem gon be powerhouses..

In saying that though, they will be playing against each other so their most likely goes that theory...

 

[justlookingaround]

Firstly, I think the best premierships are the ones that no one expects at the start of the year - eg. Sydney 2012... So I'm not really holding out for a team to go through the H&A season undefeated then win the flag... that'd be boring...

If it weren't for Geelong in 2011 Collingwood would've been undefeated... though I still think they wouldn't have won the flag... they just seemed to have run out of legs towards the end of the year.

If there was any chance of St. Kilda not having top spot locked up in 2009 they probably would've gone through undefeated, and yeah, if it weren't for Geelong they'd have won the flag.

Hawthorn's tricky for 2013, they're either going to be one of the best side's we've ever seen, and lose less than 3 games and maybe even contend for that perfect title... or they'll pull a Hawthorn 09 and go into shambles... but I think they're a reasonable shot for next year.

Also look out for Freo in the next 2-3 years... something tells me they'll be able to pull off what St Kilda couldn't do under Ross Lyon... very talented list.

 

[Madison]

Possible but highly unlikely, especially given that just 8 of the last 23 premiers (since 1990) have won the minor premiership.

That is an interesting stat. Very surprising.

 

[LosBeatles]

especially with global warming likely to dry the climate even more.

Drinking the kool aid and bumping 11 year old posts. Come back to this thread in 2023 and the whole global warming thing will have blown over.

 

[Call Me Cake]

No team will ever come close to what Essendon did in 2000.

Won the pre-season competition straight, competed in a full 18 team competition, no Gold Coast or Western Sydney providing unfair fixtures, only lost 1 match for the entire year and that was to a last minute snap from the Bulldogs in the smallest of margins, and completely demolished teams of over 100+ points in the finals and won the flag to top it all off.

That was the best season ever, by an impeccable line-up and it is no coincidence that in over 100 years of football it hasn't happened twice.

Unfortunately the Bombers grew to such power at the wrong time and place, just before a team like the Brisbane Lions (aided through concessions and stealing players) arrived on the scene.

 

[Gavin Excell]

No team will ever come close to what Essendon did in 2000.

Won the pre-season competition straight, competed in a full 18 team competition, no Gold Coast or Western Sydney providing unfair fixtures, only lost 1 match for the entire year and that was to a last minute snap from the Bulldogs in the smallest of margins, and completely demolished teams of over 100+ points in the finals and won the flag to top it all off.

That was the best season ever, by an impeccable line-up and it is no coincidence that in over 100 years of football it hasn't happened twice.

Unfortunately the Bombers grew to such power at the wrong time and place, just before a team like the Brisbane Lions (aided through concessions and stealing players) arrived on the scene.

Stunning stats yes but the elephant in the room is this great side only won the sole flag.

Lions of the same period are regarded the better team

 

[GWS 2 good 4 u]

GWS in a few years time will go undefeated, just you wait and see.

 

[iluvparis]

Stunning stats yes but the elephant in the room is this great side only won the sole flag.

Lions of the same period are regarded the better team

Elephant in the room is the 2 extra teams that apparently played that year according to CMC

 

[mianfei]

I remember thinking it was almost inevitable that St Kilda would do it in 2009, until we - completely inexplicably - beat them.

I likewise felt the same about Collingwood until their loss to Geelong in Round 8 of 2011. They just seemed to have a sense of complete inevitability about them.

What is interesting about 2009 and 2011 is that - following on from my previous post - had a pair of extremely dominant teams in a manner not seen before in the VFL/AFL. Probably, to have more than one extremely dominant team is simply impossible or nearly so without modern ground rationalisation, because one or the other of the two teams would be likely to be badly hit when the weather breaks up.

The nearest approach to it pre-Docklands, in 1975 when Hawthorn and Carlton were five wins clear of the third-placed team at the end of June but neither won the flag. When the weather broke up, Carlton collapsed and after a brief spell of the hottest July weather ever known Hawthorn did so too just as the weather became very bad. In the WAFL of 1953 South Fremantle and West Perth approached the dominance of Geelong and St. Kilda in 2009 and Geelong and Collingwood in 2011, but we are dealing with an eight-team competition.

In a sense, the possibility of this sort of “co-dominance” may counter somewhat the reduced difficulty of an undefeated season from ground rationalisation.

 

[Balance]

It's possible if the umpires don't start helping underdogs, you never know how the AFL will take to a very dominant team.

 

[CAS79]

It can only be a Melbourne team that could possibly achieve this, the travel factor fatigue kicks in for the teams travelling constantly they have to have a down game or two n the road.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Unfortunately the Bombers grew to such power at the wrong time and place, just before a team like the Brisbane Lions (aided through concessions and stealing players) arrived on the scene.

I'm so glad I understand why Collingwood, Adelaide and Port Adelaide all out-performed Essendon in 2002. Brisbane's salary cap concessions.

You scraped home against the Hawks in the 2001 preliminary final in a fashion similar to the Pies scraping home in the 2011 equivalent game. In reality, even without Brisbane and even despite being a clear second best team in 2001 you would have been fortunate to have claimed that flag.