Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

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owen87

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And your evidence is "smoke" from known bullshitters.



This is going around in circles. There is a big difference between saying Hawthorn is open to trade discussions on any player if the price is right (which is pretty much a truism for any club) and making statements about specific players getting put on the auction block. The first is a sensible statement that is without doubt true, the second is potentially bullshit made by gutter journos to feed a gullible audience. This isn't about mayo, it is about fact versus fiction.



My counter argument is that so far none of the specific players supposedly put up for trade have been traded. Furthermore some of them who are contracted and have explicitly stated they will NOT be traded, which also suggests a certain level of bullshit being spoken by journos. All smoke no fire makes it sound much more like a few journos with a smoke machine than an actual fire sale. Now they are covering their arses and claiming the lack of trades is not about them being caught in a lie, but rather Hawthorn being unreasonable with what they are asking (despite the fact Hawthorn previously had a reputation for being super reasonable in trade week).



The "journos" in "AFL associated journos" makes it an oxymoron. These are not proper journos, but rather tame monkey's at the AFL's beck and call. Just because several of them take the same kernel of truth ("Hawthorn are open to trades") and spin it into "X,Y,Z are all up for sale, and being actively touted around" doesn't make it true, not matter how much your credulousness would like it to be.
Oh so it's all a made up conspiracy against Hawthorn? Got it.

You can believe it's all wrong if you like, but most people that aren't hk89 would disagree with that assessment.
 

Psicosis

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From an external POV it seems strange that Hawthorn are rebuilding, yet over two years will have:

- Zero top 5 picks*
- Three top 25 picks*

*After F/S & NGA

Two top 10 picks is good, but it's no different to 10 other clubs.

This would concern me. They're just not adding enough in the pointy end IMO.
 

hk89

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Two top 10 picks is good, but it's no different to 10 other clubs.
5 and 6, so actually better than about half of the 10 other other clubs you refer to (except for those lucky enough to be getting F/S or academy picks).

Also no spoon, and few heavy lifters in the 30+ range we need to replace soon. So compared to North, going quite well, especially when you consider we actually beat (and drew) some decent teams - something North struggled to do, hence the spoon.
 

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Psicosis

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5 and 6, so actually better than about half of the 10 other other clubs you refer to (except for those lucky enough to be getting F/S or academy picks).

Also no spoon, and few heavy lifters in the 30+ range we need to replace soon. So compared to North, going quite well, especially when you consider we actually beat (and drew) some decent teams - something North struggled to do, hence the spoon.
No need to get feisty about it.

Not that this is about North, but since you feel the need to compare - in terms of talent coming through the door, I don't think anyone could say that Hawthorn are progressing better then North. From my POV your senior players are keeping you from bottoming out, hence not getting access to the pointy end of the draft.

That combined with your coach trying to flog off senior players like used cars with excessive asking prices, leaves you in a pretty interesting position.
 

boncer34

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No need to get feisty about it.

Not that this is about North, but since you feel the need to compare - in terms of talent coming through the door, I don't think anyone could say that Hawthorn are progressing better then North. From my POV your senior players are keeping you from bottoming out, hence not getting access to the pointy end of the draft.

That combined with your coach trying to flog off senior players like used cars with excessive asking prices, leaves you in a pretty interesting position.
They haven't shopped anyone.

It's a media conspiracy.
 

hk89

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No need to get feisty about it.

Not that this is about North, but since you feel the need to compare - in terms of talent coming through the door, I don't think anyone could say that Hawthorn are progressing better then North.
I didn't say that. Clearly you've brought in more early picks than us (and indeed some of them look to be very good). I said this year your age profile was poo when you look at where a lot of the heavy lifting was happening (and yes you had some young heavy lifters too, but that is beside my point). This means all that talent you've brought in will very shortly need to go directly to replacing those older players that were bearing a heavy load. This is a recipe for treading water. Hawthorn got rid of most (but not yet all) of the guys in that age bracket over the last 5 years, so our new talent supplements our 27-28 year olds instead of replacing them. The 27-28 range is where OUR heavy lifters are. This means if we nail a couple of drafts before we get to the point where our young talent is also just replacing our old talent, we have a chance to become properly competitive. In the meantime North will be chasing its tail, with no obvious improvement due to the way the talent churn will happen due to your age profile. Of course eventually North will be hoping that cycle finishes and they can then start climbing up the ladder again (just like Carlton have hoped for a couple of decades now). Good luck with that, and continue to get excited about the spoons.
 

Psicosis

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I didn't say that. Clearly you've brought in more early picks than us (and indeed some of them look to be very good). I said this year your age profile was poo when you look at where a lot of the heavy lifting was happening (and yes you had some young heavy lifters too, but that is beside my point). This means all that talent you've brought in will very shortly need to go directly to replacing those older players that were bearing a heavy load. This is a recipe for treading water. Hawthorn got rid of most (but not yet all) of the guys in that age bracket over the last 5 years, so our new talent supplements our 27-28 year olds instead of replacing them. The 27-28 range is where OUR heavy lifters are. This means if we nail a couple of drafts before we get to the point where our young talent is also just replacing our old talent, we have a chance to become properly competitive. In the meantime North will be chasing its tail, with no obvious improvement due to the way the talent churn will happen due to your age profile. Of course eventually North will be hoping that cycle finishes and they can then start climbing up the ladder again (just like Carlton have hoped for a couple of decades now). Good luck with that, and continue to get excited about the spoons.
A lot to digest here.

What I will say is that when we drafted the likes of Simpkin, LDU, Mckay our "heavy hitters" were in that 27-28 range. They've taken 5 years to get where they are and still aren't "heavy hitters". So this belief that you'll be able to nail your next few drafts and be in a better situation then we are now, isn't something that I agree with.

You're in a very similar situation North was in in 2018 IMO.
 

WWSD

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A lot to digest here.

What I will say is that when we drafted the likes of Simpkin, LDU, Mckay our "heavy hitters" were in that 27-28 range. They've taken 5 years to get where they are and still aren't "heavy hitters". So this belief that you'll be able to nail your next few drafts and be in a better situation then we are now, isn't something that I agree with.

You're in a very similar situation North was in in 2018 IMO.
See you in the 2024 Grand Final!
 

hk89

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So this belief that you'll be able to nail your next few drafts and be in a better situation then we are now, isn't something that I agree with.
LOL. You just won the spoon. There is no worse position. Yet you think if we nail the next few drafts we will not be in a better position than you are now.
 

Psicosis

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LOL. You just won the spoon. There is no worse position. Yet you think if we nail the next few drafts we will not be in a better position than you are now.
What I'm saying is I think you still haven't hit rock bottom.

I think as your "heavy hitters" begin to slow down/leave the club over the next couple years, you'll fall further down the ladder. In which you will get access to the pointy end of the draft.

I also think you could finish as high as mid table next year, but for reasons I've highlighted it isn't sustainable, and you'll bottom out in a couple years time.
 

GWT6

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I didn't say that. Clearly you've brought in more early picks than us (and indeed some of them look to be very good). I said this year your age profile was poo when you look at where a lot of the heavy lifting was happening (and yes you had some young heavy lifters too, but that is beside my point). This means all that talent you've brought in will very shortly need to go directly to replacing those older players that were bearing a heavy load. This is a recipe for treading water. Hawthorn got rid of most (but not yet all) of the guys in that age bracket over the last 5 years, so our new talent supplements our 27-28 year olds instead of replacing them. The 27-28 range is where OUR heavy lifters are. This means if we nail a couple of drafts before we get to the point where our young talent is also just replacing our old talent, we have a chance to become properly competitive. In the meantime North will be chasing its tail, with no obvious improvement due to the way the talent churn will happen due to your age profile. Of course eventually North will be hoping that cycle finishes and they can then start climbing up the ladder again (just like Carlton have hoped for a couple of decades now). Good luck with that, and continue to get excited about the spoons.
 

Generation X

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Nonsense. Breust has arguably been one the three best small forwards in the competition over the last 10 years. Sure, some others had a good year here or there that were better than some of Breust's, but consistency wise, I'd probably only put Eddie Betts ahead of him (Cyril perhaps a better small forward in terms of peak brilliance, but injury impacted his ability to match Breust for consistency, and even from a goals per game point of view, Breust had Cyril covered). Lewis on the other hand would never be considered a top 10 mid, in fact he might even struggle to have been considered a top 15 or top 20 mid for much of his career. Probably sitting in the 15th to 20th range for mine, and some might say that was generous. I will not argue with you on Hodge/Mitchell vs Breust, that's clearly a different ballpark to Breust vs Lewis.



gave/give, seems you were making a big deal about something someone said that was apparently true at the time it was relevant , i.e at the time lewis left for 3 years at Melbourne it does seem the case that were not giving out multi year contracts to players in the 30+ age bracket. The fact that it seems to have changed now doesn't really change the point being made much though does it? So I don't really get the need for the accuracy police on that statement, it was true when it counted for the discussion being had.
I agree he is a very good player, no argument from me. But I just rated guys like Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell a lot higher.

I wasn't making a big deal about anything, just proving someone wrong. Like saying Breust was Hawks top goal kicker playing alongside Franklin, clearly not correct
 

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Jack Green

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What I'm saying is I think you still haven't hit rock bottom.

I think as your "heavy hitters" begin to slow down/leave the club over the next couple years, you'll fall further down the ladder. In which you will get access to the pointy end of the draft.

I also think you could finish as high as mid table next year, but for reasons I've highlighted it isn't sustainable, and you'll bottom out in a couple years time.
Gone about their rebuild differently the Roos and Hawks - time and a slice of good luck will determine which strategy is more successful. Little bit of an issue for Roo's will be the Goldstein's. Ziebell's . Cunnington's will be gone shortly and will need to be replaced.

My sneaky suspicion is also that the Hawks haven't hit rock bottom. Guys they have traded in and pillars of their side Mitchell, OMeara , Wingard, Frost , even Hartigan[ 30] are 28+ season start. Not to mention their veterans like Bruest, Shiels, Gunston , BB who are a 30 +. IMO Good move releasing TOB and Ceglar who are also in the 28+ bracket 👌
Mitchell certainly has his hands full inheriting the list off Clarko and Kennett's misreading of the list post dynasty. I personally think he is tackling it the right way, but it looks like none of the big 4 will be moving by evening's end. A few hours though. Might be some movement at the station :think:
 

Blackhawk42

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What I'm saying is I think you still haven't hit rock bottom.

I think as your "heavy hitters" begin to slow down/leave the club over the next couple years, you'll fall further down the ladder. In which you will get access to the pointy end of the draft.

I also think you could finish as high as mid table next year, but for reasons I've highlighted it isn't sustainable, and you'll bottom out in a couple years time.
Of course I can't say that you are right of wrong because the future hasn't happened yet.

What I will say though is that the prediction of Hawthorns demise with this current list is either very premature or possibly ill-conceived.
It ignores that in the past 12 months Day, Jiath, Moore, Granger-Barrass, Kosi and Reeves showed enough to suggest that all could become elite players in their positions. All positions are covered with that group besides the midfield which desperately needs improving. The best we can hope for there is Worpel turning into a Ben Cunnington type and enjoying a career as strong as his.

Time will tell of course, but we aren't lacking for impressive young talent like seems to constantly be the narrative.
 

nelk boys

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What I'm saying is I think you still haven't hit rock bottom.

I think as your "heavy hitters" begin to slow down/leave the club over the next couple years, you'll fall further down the ladder. In which you will get access to the pointy end of the draft.

I also think you could finish as high as mid table next year, but for reasons I've highlighted it isn't sustainable, and you'll bottom out in a couple years time.
I do think we will bottom out next year, by playing youth over some senior players and giving prime midfield minutes to Worpel, Newcombe, Day, Nash.

I think its important to only really bottom out for one year by finishing bottom two, and then gradually going up in about 5 places each year.

By continuing to be down below for more than 3 years, it risks a losing culture and bad development.
 

hk89

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What I'm saying is I think you still haven't hit rock bottom.
No, what you were saying was that after nailing a few drafts in a row we'd be worse of than this year's spoon winner. Perhaps that is not what you meant, but that is what you said.

I think as your "heavy hitters" begin to slow down/leave the club over the next couple years, you'll fall further down the ladder.
Our heavy lifters are not the old blokes you have propping up the top 5 of your B&F. The oldest player in the top 5 of our B&F turned 28 4 months ago. In today's environment of many players going decently to 32+, and still playing good footy at 30 he'll not be retiring in the "next couple years". This gives us a 4-5 year window with those players who are doing most of the work (i.e those in the 27-28 age range at the moment). North don't have this, they DO have the problem of those doing a lot of the work leaving in the next couple of years. Sure they've brought in talent to replace them, but like I said that just treads water. You'll need to win several more spoons and then wait a bit. Fun times - not. This is why you are completely wrong, and if we do nail the next few drafts we will in fact be well ahead of this year's spooners. AFTER that we'll need to do something quickly or risk missing another window, and eventually arriving back where we are now, but that's not dissimilar to everyone in the bottom half of the ladder who are hoping to jump into the top half in the next 3-4 years. North risk the same thing happening if their current youth ends up being good enough to get them to mid ladder before they've fully stocked up, given the old blokes they still have to replace.
 
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Psicosis

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No, what you were saying was that after nailing a few drafts in a row we'd be worse of than this year spoon winner. Perhaps that is not what you meant, but that is what you said.



Our heavy lifters are not the old blokes you have propping up the top 5 of your B&F. The oldest player in the top 5 of our B&F turned 28 4 months ago. In today's environment of many players going decently to 32+, and still playing good footy at 30 he'll not be retiring in the "next couple years". This gives us a 4-5 year window with those players who are doing most of the work (i.e those in the 27-28 age range at the moment). North don't have this, they DO have the problem of those doing a lot of the work leaving in the next couple of years. Sure they've brought in talent to replace them, but like I said that just treads water. You'll need to win several more spoons and then wait a bit. Fun times - not. This is why you are completely wrong, and if we do nail the next few drafts we will in fact be well ahead of this year's spooners. AFTER that we'll need to do something quickly or risk missing another window, and eventually arriving back where we are now, but that's not dissimilar to everyone in the bottom half of the ladder who are hoping to jump into the top half in the next 3-4 years. North risk the same thing happening if their current youth ends up being good enough to get them to mid ladder before they've fully stocked up, given the old blokes they still have to replace.
Haha yeah okay we will have to agree to disagree on this one!
 

Mr Meeseeks

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No need to get feisty about it.

Not that this is about North, but since you feel the need to compare - in terms of talent coming through the door, I don't think anyone could say that Hawthorn are progressing better then North. From my POV your senior players are keeping you from bottoming out, hence not getting access to the pointy end of the draft.

That combined with your coach trying to flog off senior players like used cars with excessive asking prices, leaves you in a pretty interesting position.
Haha come on man.

You go all patronising and ask old mate not to get fiesty, then you're last paragraph is written using hyperbolic language clearly intending to wind him up more!

Then again, it works..

Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk
 

old55

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I do think we will bottom out next year, by playing youth over some senior players and giving prime midfield minutes to Worpel, Newcombe, Day, Nash.

I think its important to only really bottom out for one year by finishing bottom two, and then gradually going up in about 5 places each year.

By continuing to be down below for more than 3 years, it risks a losing culture and bad development.
17th, 12th, 7th, 2nd? Honestly, I will be totally amazed if anything like that happens.

I think Psicosis is on the money.
 

GhostofJimJess

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If Richmond had any sense they’re be shopping their stars around whilst they still have currency. What pick/picks would you get for the likes of Martin etc.
The Hawks experience with offloading Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis for pretty much nothing in the way of significant draft picks suggests that that strategy might not be the wisest course of action. Whatever Hawthorn were trying to achieve, it didn't work. We'd get basically nothing for Cotchin, Edwards or Riewoldt compared to the value they have inside the club as mentors, and they all only have 2022 left on their respective contracts anyway so I'd imagine next year is the swansong for each of them. I dare say Richmond will hit free agency big time time next year with about $2M/year freed up. Dusty's going nowhere while even the merest skerrick of finals footy is still within our reach - we've all seen what he does in September.

I realise they were a bit short on list spots, but I'm really surprised that the Suns didn't throw an offer at Richmond, Collingwood and Geelong for Cotchin, Pendles and/or Selwood in Hodge-esque style roles.

From a Tigers supporter pov, and I know there's a fair bit of discussion on the Richmond board about this and at both ends of the argument, we're probably obligated to keep the list reasonable intact for one more crack. If we'd had a full and solid pre-season and a half-decent run with injury this year and still ended up 12th, it'd definitely be time to clean out and re-build. But with so many extraneous variables knocking the team out of contention in 2021, there's a thought that we'll bank on a better roll of the dice in 2022 and see what transpires. But if we flop again, whatever that looks like, it's time to build a new generation. With 4 picks inside 30 and another 2 very early 3rd rounders the rebuild is effectively happening simultaneously anyway.

I certainly don't blame the Hawks for hanging on for one more crack at a flag straight after the three-peat. Whatever the disappointment at where they're at now, at least it's not steeped in bitter regret at missing the opportunity of a fourth. They'd banged three of the hot sisters - can't blame them for propositioning the fourth, even though it ended up costing them a smack in the face.
 

Jack Green

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The Hawks experience with offloading Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis for pretty much nothing in the way of significant draft picks suggests that that strategy might not be the wisest course of action. Whatever Hawthorn were trying to achieve, it didn't work. We'd get basically nothing for Cotchin, Edwards or Riewoldt compared to the value they have inside the club as mentors, and they all only have 2022 left on their respective contracts anyway so I'd imagine next year is the swansong for each of them. I dare say Richmond will hit free agency big time time next year with about $2M/year freed up. Dusty's going nowhere while even the merest skerrick of finals footy is still within our reach - we've all seen what he does in September.

I realise they were a bit short on list spots, but I'm really surprised that the Suns didn't throw an offer at Richmond, Collingwood and Geelong for Cotchin, Pendles and/or Selwood in Hodge-esque style roles.

From a Tigers supporter pov, and I know there's a fair bit of discussion on the Richmond board about this and at both ends of the argument, we're probably obligated to keep the list reasonable intact for one more crack. If we'd had a full and solid pre-season and a half-decent run with injury this year and still ended up 12th, it'd definitely be time to clean out and re-build. But with so many extraneous variables knocking the team out of contention in 2021, there's a thought that we'll bank on a better roll of the dice in 2022 and see what transpires. But if we flop again, whatever that looks like, it's time to build a new generation. With 4 picks inside 30 and another 2 very early 3rd rounders the rebuild is effectively happening simultaneously anyway.

I certainly don't blame the Hawks for hanging on for one more crack at a flag straight after the three-peat. Whatever the disappointment at where they're at now, at least it's not steeped in bitter regret at missing the opportunity of a fourth. They'd banged three of the hot sisters - can't blame them for propositioning the fourth, even though it ended up costing them a smack in the face.
Agreed - your mob now in a very similar situation to Hawks 5 years ago. It's very hard not to justify rolling the dice one more time. Love your hot sister analogy :thumbsu: If you do however, the history shows an era of football wilderness after an era of unqualified success I do believe that is what will now face the Hawks in the years ahead!
Now trade is over we hear Giants offered pick 13 for Bruest who is 31 next month but deal fell free due to player saying no [ [which should be his right]
Will Day was pick 13 2009
Cyril Rioli Pick 12 2007
I know people may throw up less successful like range picks to argue against this .'
Personally great for Bruest who is a class player to finish a one club player, but if I was a Hawk fan ! would 100% wanted Bruest out the door to fast track the rebuild.
 

GWT6

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No, what you were saying was that after nailing a few drafts in a row we'd be worse of than this year spoon winner. Perhaps that is not what you meant, but that is what you said.



Our heavy lifters are not the old blokes you have propping up the top 5 of your B&F. The oldest player in the top 5 of our B&F turned 28 4 months ago. In today's environment of many players going decently to 32+, and still playing good footy at 30 he'll not be retiring in the "next couple years". This gives us a 4-5 year window with those players who are doing most of the work (i.e those in the 27-28 age range at the moment). North don't have this, they DO have the problem of those doing a lot of the work leaving in the next couple of years. Sure they've brought in talent to replace them, but like I said that just treads water. You'll need to win several more spoons and then wait a bit. Fun times - not. This is why you are completely wrong, and if we do nail the next few drafts we will in fact be well ahead of this year's spooners. AFTER that we'll need to do something quickly or risk missing another window, and eventually arriving back where we are now, but that's not dissimilar to everyone in the bottom half of the ladder who are hoping to jump into the top half in the next 3-4 years. North risk the same thing happening if their current youth ends up being good enough to get them to mid ladder before they've fully stocked up, given the old blokes they still have to replace.
You seem like a pretty passionate Hawthorn fan. What did you change to them?
 

dcutter

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What I'm saying is I think you still haven't hit rock bottom.

I think as your "heavy hitters" begin to slow down/leave the club over the next couple years, you'll fall further down the ladder. In which you will get access to the pointy end of the draft.

I also think you could finish as high as mid table next year, but for reasons I've highlighted it isn't sustainable, and you'll bottom out in a couple years time.
Hard to say mate.

A better way at looking at it would be retrospective drafts. Will day goes top 3-5 in his draft year.
Grainger Barrass could be anything yet.
Still didn't see our earlier picks from last year.
Jiath was a category b rookie, where would go now? first round you'd think.
Scrimshaw was a former pick 7 picked up for a pack of bikkies and is playing sensational footy.

I guess what i'm saying is, theres more ways of looking at it than through the lens of exclusively picks 1-5

As for bottoming out, geez who knows. Actually excited by the recruiting we've done in the past 2-3 years but we're still a way off due to the mismanagement of our recruiting in the years prior to that. We've brought the age demographic down substantially and aren't leaning much on old heads as much as punters/media are led to believe.

Time will tell I guess.
 

Scotland

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From an external POV it seems strange that Hawthorn are rebuilding, yet over two years will have:

- Zero top 5 picks*
- Three top 25 picks*

*After F/S & NGA

Two top 10 picks is good, but it's no different to 10 other clubs.

This would concern me. They're just not adding enough in the pointy end IMO.
Top 10 picks are hard to come by. Band 1 FA compo, NGA/FS picks and trading with Collingwood are free hits in the AFL system.

Bit of talk about who Hawthorn were "shopping" this year but GWS seemed to be the only team interested and the best they had on the table was pick 13. Richmond had pick 7 and were reportedly keen on Tom Mitchell but nothing eventuated. Pending salary I'm sure they would've been keen for a later pick. Freo have 6 and 8, but they're not going to trade one of those picks for O'Meara or Wingard.

In Mitchell, O'Meara, Gunston, Breust, Wingard Hawthorn have players they could have traded to get picks in the 10-25+ bracket. That's just the reality. There's merit in trading out these guys and using multiple picks in the first and second round, and there's likewise merit in saying that pick 20 is a gamble so may as well keep them around for the short term.
 

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