Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[Ron The Bear]

Sounds like you expect big things of us this season.

No. I expect Hawthorn to fail.

Can’t you see the hypocrisy in statements like (paraphrasing) “Making the finals would be a good effort with the list we’ve got”? That you’re sacrificing/postponing a part of the future every time you play a veteran ahead of a younger player? You need to be going somewhere to justify it. Somewhere close.

I’m certain if you asked Clarko and he was honest, he’d be thinking “flag” this year. He’d have been thinking it even as Hawthorn was being overrun in the second half against Geelong. He’s a great coach, which is partly why I didn’t make any extravagant predictions about Thursday night. I half-expected a boilover.

The AFL isn’t a game where every team wins a prize. Some teams will succeed relative to their stage of development and some will fail. In Hawthorn’s position, the pass mark must be set high.

 

[threesixpio]

 

[matey]

Hawks aren’t going no where for at least 5-7 years and our 14th cup is coming sooner than later. The next wave of Mitchell, JOM, Worpel, Wingard, Finn, Day, Lewis, Siss, Hardwick, Impey, Scrimshaw, Frost, Kosi, Jones, Patton, Jetka, Morris ...... and there will be more gems in the 4/5 that we always bring in each year from trading and drafting. Those writing off the Hawks based on focusing on age alone are very simplistic and/or are just Hawthorn haters for being the most successful club over the last 50 years.

 

[doppleganger]

No. I expect Hawthorn to fail.

Can’t you see the hypocrisy in statements like (paraphrasing) “Making the finals would be a good effort with the list we’ve got”? That you’re sacrificing/postponing a part of the future every time you play a veteran ahead of a younger player? You need to be going somewhere to justify it. Somewhere close.

I’m certain if you asked Clarko and he was honest, he’d be thinking “flag” this year. He’d have been thinking it even as Hawthorn was being overrun in the second half against Geelong. He’s a great coach, which is partly why I didn’t make any extravagant predictions about Thursday night. I half-expected a boilover.

The AFL isn’t a game where every team wins a prize. Some teams will succeed relative to their stage of development and some will fail. In Hawthorn’s position, the pass mark must be set high.

I agree with most of your premise Ron, and bow down to your data.

But I guess your historic data and point is exactly what the OP was originally about, that successful teams climb the mountain they reach their peak (hopefully win a flag (or multiple)) but then all teams eventually fall away.

What usually happens is teams get old, champions retire, and then the clubs spend time in the wilderness hoping to develop the next wave of champions...most fail to ever come on, and hence plenty of clubs spend decades just churning through kids losing games.

Hawks are trying a different approach, they are targeting ready made players - grab Mitchell just as he is ready to win a Brownlow, get JOM/Patton and Scully and get them fit, bring in guys like Wingard who are quality, and then plug gaps with senior players like Henderson, Frost and Impey who have been great pickups.

Sure they may not ‘win’ another premiership this year, but going down the full rebuild blow up the list and start again StK style isn’t any guaranteed approach either.

They won the 2015 flag, only 9 from that team still playing...that is a decent turnover, and argue it is an entirely new group doing the heavy lifting - Mitchell, JOM, Worpel, Sicily, Wingard, Hardwick, Henderson and Ceglar as #1 ruck!!

That group didn’t cost Hawks any elite top end draft picks.

I was looking forward to Hawthorn falling away, but unfortunately think I will be waiting a few years again.

 

[parsons nose]

I’m doing a u-turn on this, what’s the point of Hawthorn going a rebuild when they don’t have to?

If they can still bring in good experienced players and they want to come, do it.

Draft picks are just a number anyway, so if you can bring guys in who you know are proven at AFL level that’s better than a draft pick who theoretically could either be the next Mitch Thorp.

I say this as a supporter of a club who have hit the draft big time and in barely any better shape then we were 5 years ago.

I’m sorry sir, this is a contravention of the first law of Big Footy. Thou shalt not change ones mind under weight of evidence; thou shalt double down. Yellow card for you!

 

[Ron The Bear]

Sure they may not ‘win’ another premiership this year, but going down the full rebuild blow up the list and start again StK style isn’t any guaranteed approach either.

There are degrees of rebuild. It's impractical for a club that has been to the top to opt for a rebuild from ground zero; it's too big a fall for the casual fan to cop, and membership suffers. Not what I'm suggesting Hawthorn should do. All I'm saying is that the current approach is unsustainable. The conveyor belt needs to keep moving at the bottom end.

H&A games played by under-22's:

Year	Ad	Br	Ca	Co	Es	Fr	Ge	GC	GWS	Ha	Me	NM	PA	Ri	St	Sy	WC	WB
2020	10	10	4	5	4	12	8	14	10	6	5	8	9	5	7	12	5	8
2019	71	138	189	48	122	107	107	181	102	104	61	101	126	112	96	120	80	126
2018	86	164	198	107	86	137	114	150	78	92	68	71	76	91	106	111	86	186
2017	39	198	160	104	112	135	81	154	58	76	139	110	98	121	111	130	63	140
2016	99	186	95	109	132	85	50	166	87	64	161	37	109	91	117	119	39	147
2015	94	195	102	159	102	69	97	170	193	43	131	47	88	87	138	84	78	160

2019 not too bad, but only four u25 players in the top 18 in the b&f. It isn't enough.

Fair enough if they can grab enough of the pool of available 25yo's to launch another assault. But there aren't enough to go around and someone's got to miss out.

 

[Ambrosia]

Still can’t believe Melbourne let Frost go. Given Mays form he’d arguably their best KPD.

 

[matey]

Still can’t believe Melbourne let Frost go. Given Mays form he’d arguably their best KPD.

Played golf with a Melbourne supporter yesterday and he was dirty on the club for letting him go.

Clarko would like what Frost brings to the table ..... quick enough to play on big/small, his competitiveness and cannonball approach towards the footy and if an opponent is in the way good luck. Looking forward to when we next play Dees just to see when Frost and Day cross paths!

 

[Sir_Loin]

Played golf with a Melbourne supporter yesterday and he was dirty on the club for letting him go.

Clarko would like what Frost brings to the table ..... quick enough to play on big/small, his competitiveness and cannonball approach towards the footy and if an opponent is in the way good luck. Looking forward to when we next play Dees just to see when Frost and Day cross paths!

just needed a good coach to teach him to football. He’ll get better the longer he plays under clarko

 

[Ambrosia]

There are degrees of rebuild. It's impractical for a club that has been to the top to opt for a rebuild from ground zero; it's too big a fall for the casual fan to cop, and membership suffers. Not what I'm suggesting Hawthorn should do. All I'm saying is that the current approach is unsustainable. The conveyor belt needs to keep moving at the bottom end.

H&A games played by under-22's:

Year	Ad	Br	Ca	Co	Es	Fr	Ge	GC	GWS	Ha	Me	NM	PA	Ri	St	Sy	WC	WB
2020	10	10	4	5	4	12	8	14	10	6	5	8	9	5	7	12	5	8
2019	71	138	189	48	122	107	107	181	102	104	61	101	126	112	96	120	80	126
2018	86	164	198	107	86	137	114	150	78	92	68	71	76	91	106	111	86	186
2017	39	198	160	104	112	135	81	154	58	76	139	110	98	121	111	130	63	140
2016	99	186	95	109	132	85	50	166	87	64	161	37	109	91	117	119	39	147
2015	94	195	102	159	102	69	97	170	193	43	131	47	88	87	138	84	78	160

2019 not too bad, but only four u25 players in the top 18 in the b&f. It isn't enough.

Fair enough if they can grab enough of the pool of available 25yo's to launch another assault. But there aren't enough to go around and someone's got to miss out.

Just playing devils advocate. Richmond’s U25s were very average until they

Played golf with a Melbourne supporter yesterday and he was dirty on the club for letting him go.

Clarko would like what Frost brings to the table ..... quick enough to play on big/small, his competitiveness and cannonball approach towards the footy and if an opponent is in the way good luck. Looking forward to when we next play Dees just to see when Frost and Day cross paths!

I’ve been a fan of Frost for years now. Never understood why the Dees played Omac ahead of him.

 

[TylerDurden]

Still can’t believe Melbourne let Frost go. Given Mays form he’d arguably their best KPD.

May, Lever, OMac, Hibberd, Jetta is a pretty decent backline though.

Clearly May and Lever are the 2 keys they'll build it around, although injury prone.

 

[Ambrosia]

just needed a good coach to teach him to football. He’ll get better the longer he plays under clarko

I think he was coming good at the Dees they just had no idea what they had

 

[Ambrosia]

May, Lever, OMac, Hibberd, Jetta is a pretty decent backline though.

Clearly May and Lever are the 2 keys they'll build it around, although injury prone.

Omac is horrible. I guess the one saving grace mid Tmac looks to be not up to it forward so May, Lever, Tmac is a decent back line.

 

[HairyO]

Maybe. Nobody can say how a rebuild is going to go. But Clarkson himself has the runs on the board, having initially started with and maintained a young team (24.05 or below, first five seasons). That they succeeded before they were "meant" to points to uncommon playing, coaching and management talent.

Clarko clearly doesn't want to go through another full rebuild. At 52 he is much closer to the end of his coaching journey than the beginning.

Hang on. 24.05 is young, but 24.85 is old ?

 

[TylerDurden]

Omac is horrible. I guess the one saving grace mid Tmac looks to be not up to it forward so May, Lever, Tmac is a decent back line.

Salem too. Joel Smith. They've got depth back there.

 

[H2F]

just needed a good coach to teach him to football. He’ll get better the longer he plays under clarko

Lever is on 850k May the same, couldn’t afford him

 

[Sir_Loin]

I think he was coming good at the Dees they just had no idea what they had

watch the dees a bit because of family. He’s always had the athletic traits but he can be a headless chook. Will always have a bit of that about him but looks like he’s trying to reign that in. At 26 he’d want to. Hawks will get good mileage out of him. Was a good pick up.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Hang on. 24.05 is young, but 24.85 is old ?

Where did I say 24.85 is old?

 

[HairyO]

Where did I say 24.85 is old?

Not necessarily you. But this young vs old debate is ridivulous when the actual differences in teams is trivial.

And the fact that age is still a discussion piece shows how ignorant people are. Age has hardly been a factor ever, other than very young teams tending to struggle through lack of experience.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Lever is on 850k May the same, couldn’t afford him

lol really?

 

[doppleganger]

There are degrees of rebuild. It's impractical for a club that has been to the top to opt for a rebuild from ground zero; it's too big a fall for the casual fan to cop, and membership suffers. Not what I'm suggesting Hawthorn should do. All I'm saying is that the current approach is unsustainable. The conveyor belt needs to keep moving at the bottom end.

H&A games played by under-22's:

Year	Ad	Br	Ca	Co	Es	Fr	Ge	GC	GWS	Ha	Me	NM	PA	Ri	St	Sy	WC	WB
2020	10	10	4	5	4	12	8	14	10	6	5	8	9	5	7	12	5	8
2019	71	138	189	48	122	107	107	181	102	104	61	101	126	112	96	120	80	126
2018	86	164	198	107	86	137	114	150	78	92	68	71	76	91	106	111	86	186
2017	39	198	160	104	112	135	81	154	58	76	139	110	98	121	111	130	63	140
2016	99	186	95	109	132	85	50	166	87	64	161	37	109	91	117	119	39	147
2015	94	195	102	159	102	69	97	170	193	43	131	47	88	87	138	84	78	160

2019 not too bad, but only four u25 players in the top 18 in the b&f. It isn't enough.

Fair enough if they can grab enough of the pool of available 25yo's to launch another assault. But there aren't enough to go around and someone's got to miss out.

Their numbers in the last couple of years aren’t that bad!? Again compares with StKilda.

What they are trying to do is use other clubs to develop u22s, and then identify senior players who are ready to go immediately, and will give them a minimum of 5 years of senior football.

Again to me is smart, you are the numbers man....what are the avg games played by draft picks outside 1st round?

If you aren’t getting access to the real top end of the draft, you need to make the most of what you’re given...and using multiple picks in the 20s to bring in guys like Gunston is smart. Bringing in guys like Scully and Henderson for nothing, to fill hole left by B.Hill leaving is smart. Picking up Frost for nothing is looking good etc.

If they keep having just one of their drafted kids each year come on - ala Sicily, Worpel, Hardwick they will unfortunately be competing for top4 spots for a while.

Then it comes down to luck...injuries/suspensions at the wrong time can derail the perfect plan...but better to actually give yourself a chance to roll the dice IMO

 

[Pessimistic]

Two games in hawks beat an unbeaten team and giants lose to a winless team

hawks good chance to crack top 4, but need to be wary of dropping games to lower teams like last year

 

[Ron The Bear]

Age has hardly been a factor ever

I like to trot out a table whenever this claim is made. Performance of older teams since 1897:

Bracket (difference in avg age to opponent)	Played​	Won​	Lost​	Drawn​	Win %​
< +0.5y	4902​	2491​	2366​	45​	51.27​
+0.5 to +1y	4187​	2317​	1826​	44​	55.86​
+1 to +1.5y	2906​	1703​	1171​	32​	59.15​
+1.5 to +2y	1832​	1162​	651​	19​	63.95​
+2 to +2.5y	1002​	667​	323​	12​	67.17​
+2.5 to +3y	485​	338​	143​	4​	70.10​
> +3y	318​	251​	64​	3​	79.40​

If you're not performing to at least those win percentages, you're failing by definition.

Anyway I'm done discussing the Hawks for the time being. My opinion isn't important in the scheme of things.

 

[Pessimistic]

Their numbers in the last couple of years aren’t that bad!? Again compares with StKilda.

What they are trying to do is use other clubs to develop u22s, and then identify senior players who are ready to go immediately, and will give them a minimum of 5 years of senior football.

Again to me is smart, you are the numbers man....what are the avg games played by draft picks outside 1st round?

If you aren’t getting access to the real top end of the draft, you need to make the most of what you’re given...and using multiple picks in the 20s to bring in guys like Gunston is smart. Bringing in guys like Scully and Henderson for nothing, to fill hole left by B.Hill leaving is smart. Picking up Frost for nothing is looking good etc.

If they keep having just one of their drafted kids each year come on - ala Sicily, Worpel, Hardwick they will unfortunately be competing for top4 spots for a while.

Then it comes down to luck...injuries/suspensions at the wrong time can derail the perfect plan...but better to actually give yourself a chance to roll the dice IMO

True. Tom Mitchell missing a year. What difference did that make? Someone noted Mitchell omeara and wingard just 2 games together so far

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

There are degrees of rebuild. It's impractical for a club that has been to the top to opt for a rebuild from ground zero; it's too big a fall for the casual fan to cop, and membership suffers. Not what I'm suggesting Hawthorn should do. All I'm saying is that the current approach is unsustainable. The conveyor belt needs to keep moving at the bottom end.

H&A games played by under-22's:

Year	Ad	Br	Ca	Co	Es	Fr	Ge	GC	GWS	Ha	Me	NM	PA	Ri	St	Sy	WC	WB
2020	10	10	4	5	4	12	8	14	10	6	5	8	9	5	7	12	5	8
2019	71	138	189	48	122	107	107	181	102	104	61	101	126	112	96	120	80	126
2018	86	164	198	107	86	137	114	150	78	92	68	71	76	91	106	111	86	186
2017	39	198	160	104	112	135	81	154	58	76	139	110	98	121	111	130	63	140
2016	99	186	95	109	132	85	50	166	87	64	161	37	109	91	117	119	39	147
2015	94	195	102	159	102	69	97	170	193	43	131	47	88	87	138	84	78	160

2019 not too bad, but only four u25 players in the top 18 in the b&f. It isn't enough.

Fair enough if they can grab enough of the pool of available 25yo's to launch another assault. But there aren't enough to go around and someone's got to miss out.

Using the by-game stats, teams are playing 3-4 under 22 each week, with a strong inverse correlation between the number of games and ladder position.

Not sure about your B&F ages there...our B&F results were one of the strongest indicators that "too old" was a misnomer.
2019 B&F
James Worpel 115 (20)
Ricky Henderson 104 (30)
Jaegar O’Meara 103 (25)
James Sicily 100 (24)
Blake Hardwick 90 (22)

4 of the top 5 are 25 or under.

Jarman Impey 85 (23)
Liam Shiels 78 (27)
Ben McEvoy 75 (29)
Luke Breust 73 (28)
Ben Stratton 63 (30)

5 of the top 10.

Jack Gunston 62 (27)
Isaac Smith 62 (30)
James Frawley 62 (30)
Chad Wingard 57 (25)
Tom Scully 56 (27)
Tim O’Brien 49 (25)
Shaun Burgoyne 48 (36)
Paul Puopolo 47 (31)

7 of the top "18"

Mitchell Lewis 36 (20)
Daniel Howe 35 (23)
Jonathon Ceglar 34 (28)
James Cousins 25 (21)

10 of the top "22"

Tom Mitchell was 25 but spent the year injured, otherwise he would be in this grouping too. (Likely replacing Cousins so doesn't change the numbers).

So ten of our best-22 from last year were 25 or under. Another ten were 26-30, and 2 were 30+. For mine that's a pretty decent balance and one I expect would be replicated across the league (GWS/GC aside).

The issue was performance, not age - and even then the season showed our ladder position was in part an unfortunate outcome of the bias inherent in the fixture.

In 2015 Hawthorn had a big hole behind their stars (no-one younger than Shiels/Gunston/Breust), with Sicily and Hardwick the only "drafted" players in that 22-27 age group to have truly come on. (Worpel started a 'star', and Lewis has very big wraps.)