and at nearly a mill a year each
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Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2
- Thread starter Bunk Moreland
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RTB, is there any way you can break this data down further, perhaps eliminating where the 'young' side was "x" below the median AFL age?
I'm pretty sure GC/GWS startups would skew those figures pretty heavily
25 or under v u25.
Not sure exclusions are valid on that basis. You'd also have to exclude the following recent wins by the Bulldogs.
2019 R23 d. Ad 23.85 diff -3.29
2019 R21 d. Es 24.76 diff -1.35
2019 R16 d. Ge 24.55 diff -1.95
2019 R2 d. Ha 24.27 diff -2.50
2019 R1 d. Sy 24.30 diff -1.06
2018 R21 d. NM 23.85 diff -2.20
2018 R15 d. Ge 23.33 diff -2.26
2018 R8 d. Br 22.57 diff -1.84
2018 R6 d. Ca 22.97 diff -1.57
2018 R3 d. Es 23.56 diff -1.85
Which is a side above the line in development...
But for the record, here are the figures to the end of 2010:
| Bracket (difference in avg age to opponent) | Played | Won | Lost | Drawn | Win % |
| < +0.5y | 4359 | 2212 | 2109 | 38 | 51.18 |
| +0.5 to +1y | 3742 | 2039 | 1660 | 43 | 55.06 |
| +1 to +1.5y | 2568 | 1479 | 1059 | 30 | 58.18 |
| +1.5 to +2y | 1594 | 981 | 595 | 18 | 62.11 |
| +2 to +2.5y | 860 | 564 | 285 | 11 | 66.22 |
| +2.5 to +3y | 402 | 275 | 123 | 4 | 68.91 |
| > +3y | 237 | 179 | 56 | 2 | 75.95 |
I'm yet to come across a Hawthorn supporter in recent times who likes the numbers, and Gralin may yet be along to delete these tables. They are what they are.
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- Jun 28, 2013
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- Jun 28, 2013
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That’s why RTB’s data is helpful though, to flesh out Bunk’s initial question. Data nerds are always welcome with me.
- Jun 28, 2013
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I wants some standard deviation of list ages from the league age average ...if that makes sense. So we can kill the get rid of Burgers and we aren’t that bad argument - or indeed confirm the argument.
c’mon rtb.
be great to see how all the teams stack up too
Eh, I don't do list ages. Only the teams on the park. The Dallas Willsmores and Jono O'Rourkes cloud the issue.
Champion Data are pretty good at coming up with methodologies to quantify awkward things, but they're a little speculative by nature.
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- Jun 28, 2013
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Lists on the park with standard deviation then
- Jun 28, 2013
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Or have you already done that and I’m too dumb to realise?
H&A teams, avg age with SD in brakcets. Not sure it adds very much, given outliers at both ends of the age spectrum will increase SD.
| Club | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
| Ad | 23.98 (3.19) | 25.00 (3.40) | 24.43 (3.15) | 24.95 (3.31) | 24.75 (3.02) | 25.13 (3.22) | 25.35 (2.93) | 25.89 (3.55) | 26.42 (3.32) | 25.19 (3.46) |
| Br | 23.98 (3.63) | 24.49 (4.06) | 24.58 (3.79) | 23.67 (3.95) | 23.68 (3.39) | 23.83 (3.41) | 23.47 (3.25) | 24.31 (4.07) | 25.20 (4.07) | 25.24 (4.01) |
| Ca | 24.41 (2.79) | 24.72 (2.88) | 25.36 (2.96) | 25.69 (3.10) | 25.37 (3.27) | 25.31 (3.42) | 24.55 (4.26) | 24.55 (4.35) | 24.60 (4.37) | 26.17 (4.13) |
| Co | 25.05 (3.25) | 24.27 (3.15) | 25.19 (3.47) | 24.72 (3.10) | 24.18 (3.18) | 24.32 (3.01) | 24.90 (3.09) | 24.91 (3.46) | 26.19 (3.15) | 26.30 (3.18) |
| Es | 24.08 (3.77) | 24.62 (3.54) | 24.85 (3.33) | 25.34 (4.02) | 25.17 (3.83) | 25.20 (4.14) | 25.68 (3.93) | 25.50 (3.49) | 25.28 (3.21) | 25.49 (2.99) |
| Fr | 24.39 (3.31) | 25.21 (3.15) | 25.24 (3.09) | 26.48 (3.42) | 26.56 (3.73) | 25.95 (3.93) | 24.92 (4.02) | 24.39 (4.26) | 24.80 (3.58) | 24.46 (3.37) |
| Ge | 26.67 (4.04) | 25.94 (4.03) | 25.89 (3.93) | 26.07 (3.74) | 25.62 (4.48) | 26.19 (3.76) | 25.99 (3.53) | 25.43 (3.78) | 26.21 (4.26) | 27.24 (4.30) |
| GC | 22.35 (3.59) | 22.69 (3.32) | 23.02 (3.15) | 22.92 (2.89) | 23.31 (3.01) | 24.08 (3.53) | 23.94 (3.57) | 23.94 (3.50) | 23.95 (3.44) | 23.59 (3.49) |
| GWS | 21.91 (4.61) | 21.63 (3.11) | 22.35 (2.96) | 23.23 (2.94) | 24.83 (3.52) | 25.07 (3.44) | 25.21 (3.35) | 25.59 (3.90) | 25.89 (3.78) | |
| Ha | 24.97 (3.07) | 25.09 (3.03) | 26.00 (3.36) | 25.84 (3.26) | 26.81 (3.56) | 26.49 (3.77) | 26.13 (3.95) | 26.13 (3.83) | 26.52 (4.28) | 28.16 (3.90) |
| Me | 23.26 (2.90) | 24.04 (2.72) | 24.08 (2.87) | 24.66 (3.14) | 24.68 (3.57) | 23.72 (3.13) | 24.57 (3.33) | 24.89 (3.54) | 24.82 (3.10) | 25.34 (3.19) |
| NM | 24.26 (3.52) | 24.45 (3.51) | 24.82 (3.42) | 25.82 (3.80) | 26.74 (4.12) | 27.62 (4.39) | 25.24 (3.74) | 25.64 (3.58) | 25.80 (3.63) | 26.30 (3.76) |
| PA | 24.22 (3.25) | 24.25 (2.94) | 23.80 (3.07) | 24.54 (3.27) | 25.09 (2.90) | 24.66 (2.81) | 25.13 (3.12) | 25.79 (3.28) | 25.21 (4.20) | 26.15 (4.35) |
| Ri | 23.18 (2.67) | 23.92 (3.11) | 24.99 (3.05) | 24.87 (2.89) | 25.10 (2.97) | 24.81 (2.88) | 24.65 (2.90) | 25.41 (3.09) | 25.02 (3.44) | 26.31 (3.44) |
| St | 26.07 (2.92) | 26.35 (3.60) | 25.57 (4.13) | 25.10 (4.39) | 24.71 (4.24) | 25.22 (4.26) | 25.09 (3.64) | 24.41 (3.22) | 24.41 (2.63) | 25.13 (3.18) |
| Sy | 25.27 (3.83) | 25.97 (3.74) | 26.27 (3.80) | 26.23 (3.77) | 26.48 (4.07) | 25.16 (3.73) | 25.09 (3.74) | 25.43 (4.09) | 24.36 (3.65) | 24.62 (3.40) |
| WC | 24.31 (3.41) | 24.76 (3.31) | 25.22 (3.29) | 25.02 (2.95) | 25.12 (2.91) | 26.02 (2.85) | 26.76 (3.77) | 25.73 (3.31) | 26.11 (3.54) | 26.96 (3.36) |
| WB | 24.96 (3.96) | 24.65 (3.72) | 24.64 (4.02) | 24.99 (4.16) | 24.29 (4.13) | 24.53 (4.00) | 25.00 (4.15) | 23.54 (3.38) | 24.43 (3.62) | 24.93 (3.24) |
Haha, but you see it in other sports with drafts in the US as well as AFL, it involves a combination of everything.
If you are trading to get talent in, make sure they are good. If you are drafting to get talent in, make sure that is good etc.
Need to get a good hit rate on whatever you do to be successful, and good culture and leadership.
Hawthorn have those last 2 points sorted which makes things easier.
I’ve seen the alternative when you lose the good culture and leadership, you get caught in an endless loop. What’s the point of doing a total rebuild if you don’t have to? It may not work and your club is then stuffed for generations.
Where's your data showing playing more u22s has any advantage ?
You're basing all your findings off the false assumption than youth equals improvement and age equals decline when actual data shows it doesn't happen in reality.
Playing youth nearly always invokes a performance hit. It's what you have to do when you go over the cliff (e.g. Adelaide) or what you try to do with an eye beyond winning this week's game. It's a balancing act that involves sacrifice whichever way you go.
Getting that balance right looms as Richmond's biggest challenge this year. The time is fast approaching for us to take a few risks in order that the team continues developing. Very hard to promote without the VFL in action, though.
old + winning = good
old + losing = bad
young + winning = great!
young + losing = jury out
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Fair enough on the exclusions, in all honesty it's probably only a season or two of GWS/GC that skew the numbers. Using your <Pre 2010 and all time figures to create a post 2010 set (the difference)....
| Bracket (difference in avg age to opponent) | Played | Won | Lost | Drawn | Win % |
| < +0.5y | 543 | 279 | 257 | 7 | 51.38% |
| +0.5 to +1y | 445 | 278 | 166 | 1 | 62.47% |
| +1 to +1.5y | 338 | 224 | 112 | 2 | 66.27% |
| +1.5 to +2y | 238 | 181 | 56 | 1 | 76.05% |
| +2 to +2.5y | 142 | 103 | 38 | 1 | 72.54% |
| +2.5 to +3y | 83 | 63 | 20 | 0 | 75.90% |
| > +3y | 81 | 72 | 8 | 1 | 88.89% |
This shows a pretty big increase in the age advantage in this time. Perhaps with better science/nutrition/$$$ players are playing longer and maintaining performance older than historically.
RTB, are you able to compare individual clubs age-related performances (esp Hawthorn and any other clubs you want to note for comparison) with these age differences over the period since 2010?
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- Jul 16, 2013
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This thread is no fun when Hawthorn win...
Not sure if this will give stat points with hovering - but this is plotting the games played per year from RTB figures, vs final ladder position.
OLD-GOOD = Top Left
Young-Good = Top Right
Old - Bad = Bottom Left
Young - Bad = Bottom Right
Edit: Meh, can't work out how to get the trendline to show. Pretty clear almost 45 degree top left to bottom right as you'd expect.
OLD-GOOD = Top Left
Young-Good = Top Right
Old - Bad = Bottom Left
Young - Bad = Bottom Right
Edit: Meh, can't work out how to get the trendline to show. Pretty clear almost 45 degree top left to bottom right as you'd expect.
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The data doesn't support that. Older lists do better both in the now and the future
So why is old and bad worse than young and bad and why is young and good better than old and good ?
That's what I've said all along, and what the stats support. But there's a point where old teams start to decline, and Hawthorn started a while ago.
Young teams usually have scope for improvement and can rise quickly. It's not necessarily damning if they cop the odd hiding. Old teams have much less scope. When an old team starts regularly dropping games it should win, it's unlikely to recover.
Good is good, whether old or young. But a good young team has a chance of establishing a successful era, like half the young 2008 premiership team forming the core of the 2012-15 GF sides. Or the young 2016 Bulldogs looking set to challenge again after losing their way.
Quit trying to pick holes in my logic, you're not good at it.
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I've made some comparisons with other old teams which I roughly associate with Hawthorn's position earlier in the thread. Unsure if they've been deleted by my favourite Hawthorn mod, but otherwise they'll turn up if you do a search. Sorry, I don't really want to start from scratch and rehash old ground.
All these stats are comical and irrelevant to what will happen in the next couple of years. It’s based on the past on a game only played here in Australia. A very small fishbowl.
Completely does not take into account what Clarko has been doing during the off-season for a number of years now which is driving the Hawks current list management model. All that Hawthorn investment will hopefully turn into gold in the near future. While Hawks were winning premierships the genius was already plotting and planning on how to transition out some legends of the club and how to quickly bring in mature quality that will play their role in the next chapter of success.
As usual Clarko is a step ahead of the rest. Watch Richmond after its recent success when it rebuilds to replace Cotchin, Jack, Houli, Edwards and co. Bet it follows the Hawthorn path like it did when recruiting its coach from Clarko University. Should be showing a lot more respect and optimism of what angry ant is up to!!!!!
Completely does not take into account what Clarko has been doing during the off-season for a number of years now which is driving the Hawks current list management model. All that Hawthorn investment will hopefully turn into gold in the near future. While Hawks were winning premierships the genius was already plotting and planning on how to transition out some legends of the club and how to quickly bring in mature quality that will play their role in the next chapter of success.
As usual Clarko is a step ahead of the rest. Watch Richmond after its recent success when it rebuilds to replace Cotchin, Jack, Houli, Edwards and co. Bet it follows the Hawthorn path like it did when recruiting its coach from Clarko University. Should be showing a lot more respect and optimism of what angry ant is up to!!!!!
hawkman
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Have you got a table or chart of games played by under 22's and compared it to future performance
- Jun 28, 2013
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Jesus Christ we are ****ing ancient
Wow, that’s the most confusing graph I’ve ever encountered.
- Oct 14, 2006
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Yep I was stunned when I heard it. Was from a Melbourne guy in the club.
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