List Mgmt. Carlton's 2019 Draft Thread

Aug 27, 2014
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But as you've ignored a dozen times, the pick that GC got in return was secured in the knowledge a specific player was available.
There is no but about it. lol..., think...the player Gold Coast take is not what this is about, ( that I liked btw , but irrelevant) happens AFTER the picks traded, not before... AFTER...Hello, think, think, think...
It is not ignoring something, it is focus of what the trade Ken Wood sees of picks... pick 11 and this draft 64 for pick 27... Think!!!
Forgot about what happened AFTER the trade, think only of the picks and you might get it.
 
Aug 22, 2014
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There is no but about it. lol..., think...the player Gold Coast take is not what this is about, ( that I liked btw , but irrelevant) happens AFTER the picks traded, not before... AFTER...Hello, think, think, think...
It is not ignoring something, it is focus of what the trade Ken Wood sees of picks... pick 11 and this draft 64 for pick 27... Think!!!
Forgot about what happened AFTER the trade, think only of the picks and you might get it.

You're a dog with a bone on this, aren't you.

The trade happened live, during the draft, for the subsequent pick. The premise of the trade is GC being able to get a specific player. You're assuming GC don't make any indication to KW about why they are doing the trade, which strikes me as an odd assumption.

GC and Geelong submit the paperwork, Ken Wood looks it over, possibly gives GC a call to say "this looks odd, are you sure", they say "Yep, we're doing this trade because there's a player we rate highly enough to use that future first to secure". It's possible they even include that information on the submission, impossible to say without seeing the paperwork though.

Think.

Do you really think the clubs just send a note that says "Future 11 for 27 and 62" and Ken Wood makes a decision on that, or do you think there is some discussion or avenue in which a club can explain why a potentially unbalanced trade is in their interests.

Think.

Think.
 
Aug 27, 2014
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You're a dog with a bone on this, aren't you.

Absolutely, and thanks for actually at least thinking about it.

The trade happened live, during the draft, for the subsequent pick. The premise of the trade is GC being able to get a specific player. You're assuming GC don't make any indication to KW about why they are doing the trade, which strikes me as an odd assumption.
We got no information from people at the draft live to indicate there was any hold up in going straight through...
So, yes, on that premise we heard nothing from those at the draft, covering it for us, that Ken Wood gave it a good sniff before letting through. It is all you can assume.

GC and Geelong submit the paperwork, Ken Wood looks it over, possibly gives GC a call to say "this looks odd, are you sure", they say "Yep, we're doing this trade because there's a player we rate highly enough to use that future first to secure". It's possible they even include that information on the submission, impossible to say without seeing the paperwork though.
If, this happened, which is what I would expect to have happened I would be more than content. The fact is nothing from those at the draft indicated this had and that Ken Wood give it a good sniff. I really hope he did, as then he would have done his job.

It sets a precedent of weird pick trades of extreme example of what can get through, which will be interesting to see the nth degree of how lopsided pick difference can be and allowed to be.
 

Sector 7G

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It would be interesting to see the data from human recruiters vs champion data rankings and to see how they compare. I remember some lines from moneyball regarding your bias and how it influences decisions or how you miss what's in front of you.

How would a computer generated drafter go against an AFL real life, person one?
Lets just take time to reflect on Champion Data rating Melbourne as having the best list in the comp.
 

BlueJet

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I'm chilled as - just bemused as to how FF has come to the conclusion that others are drunk or not thinking when they suggest that Ken Wood might actually consider specific context when assessing trades, rather than just draft pick values.
Fair enough legend, I have noticed that taking a reductive approach to differing views seems to have increased as of late, which is a shame.
Given the common ground that we all share, I'd like to see a greater level of respect between us all rather than devolving into a shitfight at the first sign of a differing opinion.

/hippydippynonsense ;)
 
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Eiffel 65

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Sep 18, 2018
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I'd like to know what kids might go in the 15-18 range (before bids)...

Asking for a friend...

I was looking at eDPS rankings for 2020.

Trying to find small forwards in the list. Bailey Laurie might be one to watch but don't know much about these players.

Good balance of mids and KPP's available though.
 

Eiffel 65

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It’s been interesting to read people’s thoughts on our recruitment of Philp over Robertson. I back the recruiters in, although I was big on team Robertson.

What I think people are missing is. We traded pick 22 and pick 55 for Philp, so when assessing Philp vs Robertson or whoever was still available, you need to factor in, it’s Philp vs Robertson and 55 or who we could have got, if we packaged 55 with the pick we used in the 40s.

We were only ever using 3 picks in the national draft, so pick 55 was always going to be burnt.

Ramsay was most likely our intended target with that pick. Even if that selection was a couple of spots higher up the draft board, I don't think anything would have changed.

For me, the trade we should be looking at is:

Hayden Young vs Stocker, Kemp and Philp (Young being the player we would have taken with our original pick prior to the trade with Adelaide)

Doesn't sound like Robertson was on our radar for selection. Keep in mind that Richmond passed on him immediately after us, so we weren't the only club that had other midfielders ahead of him. I'm sure Robertson will be a very good player, but we definitely weren't alone with having others ahead of him.
 

murphster

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Yeah, fair enough.

I analyse companies for a living. It kind of feels the same kind of process.

It's lots of data, ending in a valuation. It's equal parts art and science. Well, it's starts off mostly science (data, formulas). But at some stage you have to make judgements. And this is based mostly on experience, but partly gut feel. The really good analysts are right more than wrong; it might appear they are plucking a number out of thin air, but a reliable gut is a real thing and an invaluable skill. And not just something you get from drinking lots of kombucha....*shudders, ugh, kombucha*

It's the same with talent spotting. Two people can watch the same player and come to difference conclusions/estimates of how they end up. Hopefully your club staff have the better talent-spotting talent.

After analysing stocks for 15 years I use a lot of formulas, but also a lot of intuition. I can see things that many others can't. Of course I also miss some things that some others don't. But I teach people 'Here are some basic rules to follow. And here are some warnings signs to avoid'. It doesn't work every time, but it's a good basis. I guess I was hoping for some similar rules/guidelines for underage footballers. I don't have the eye for talent that other people do, but was interested in some pearls of wisdom from those that do....
I tend to read a lot of reports from various sources as well as watching the U18 champs and some NAB league games while reading a lot of match reports from NAB league games as well. It’s good to hear from junior coaches of the player to see what sort of character they have and how they react to set backs, Philp and Ramsay are perfect examples of this and there reactions to missing the Champs was to try harder and have huge finishes to the year, this for me is a huge tick.
On the flip side we have Flanders who had a good year and is highly rated yet slid from where he was ranked, I tend to think it came down to character and just his comments on playing on the edge and that he would probably get suspended in his first year didn’t go down well with clubs and it I didn’t like it so was not surprised when we passed on him, then you read an article about Kemp with T Dow and Serong saying how an hour after doing his knee he was back to his normal smiling self and positive about the future, that’s resilience and a great trait to have as well as being able to inspire your peers in Dow and Serong.
I guess it can be lots of things or one thing that gives you a feel about a player, I think our recruiters nailed the players we took because they have great resilience and character as well as having talent and a want to improve.
 

murphster

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I was looking at eDPS rankings for 2020.

Trying to find small forwards in the list. Bailey Laurie might be one to watch but don't know much about these players.

Good balance of mids and KPP's available though.
I will be interested to see who we have training with us this year from next years pool, I hope Elijah Holland’s is one of them should be right up there next year.
 
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