Unofficial Preview Changes - Lions v Pies (Easter Thursday)

[Mighty Lions]

You don’t think players know or feel the much larger than normal lead up, the fact the club bank on us performing in blockbusters to please sponsors, the fact we are normally playing a big opponent, the fact the audience is 5 xs the size it would be normally, would not have any impact? That goes againts the whole notion of a block buster being a big game or ‘performing on the big stage’? Does it not?

Not enough to negatively impact their performance, no it does not.

 

[Lazza16]

Time to stop talking about best 22 each week, and acknowledging the best 30. I think the team can get stagnant if we rely on the same 22.
Add to the 22 that played against Geelong, Dev, Matho (remember him), T. Berry, Prior, Eli Smith, Lester, McFadyen, and at No.30 take your pick of Wilmot, Lohmann, or Tunstill (all three have shown a bit). Not to mention Hipwood and Kiddy coming back soon. These blokes need to be rotated through the team to get some exposure to the game plan need to take the next step in September.
Next week, Big O for Fullerton, Matho in (to tag Crisp) for Mitch, Ah Chee to Mitch's wing, Rayner off half back to run some confidence into him, and so he doesn't have to keep thinking he has to be that X factor player each week. Zorko to play deep forward with brief moments in the middle, just being the Captain and doing his magician stuff. Dev in to play a negating role from half forward on either Pendlebury or Maynard, at the expense of J. Berry who seems a bit banged up again. Let Charlie free to roam up the ground more, like in previous rounds. T. Berry in (to add a bit of mongrel to the midfield) for Cockatoo, with Cocky being the Medical Sub.

So....
Big O in for Fullerton (omitted)
Matho in for Mitch (omitted)
Dev in for J. Berry (medically managed)
T. Berry in for Cockatoo (who retains a spot on the bench as Medical Sub.)

Collingwood on the rebound after a loss to West Coast will be a danger game.

Good to see some luv for the Beast.

 

[lioninthesand]

Not enough to negatively impact their performance, no it does not.

Our 5-12 record in blockbusters/prime time slots suggests we struggle in big fixture games.

 

[dlanod]

Our 5-12 record in block buster games suggests we struggle in big fixture games.

What's your definition of a blockbuster game to get these numbers?

Usually I'd limit to Thursday and Friday nights because they're the games the teams lobby for as "blockbusters".

We're 2-2 on Thursday nights.
We're 4-3 on Friday nights.

That's already more wins than you're counting, and nowhere near the same number of games.

If you're throwing in finals, our 1-5 record takes it to 7-10. Of course that ignores the slightly misleading result because it's literally against the very best clubs each time - we've lost to either top 4 teams or grand finalists each time. Obviously we need to turn this around but it's a separate failing of the team currently.

On a related note for anyone who laments our finals record, I often feel like they'd be happier with us finishing 5th. We could smash 8th each year, be 50/50 to win the next game, and probably lose in the PF. That way we could be about 3-3 or 4-3 in finals over the last three years but have had worse chances to actually win the premiership.

 

[Gadzorks]

The chat about Zorko ignore the reality of his Achilles problem. At half back he can use his skills and vision without having to click up the ks. Which he clearly can't manage.

The move could easily have been - does Zorko retire or do we find a way to use his weapons and keep him on the field?

Losing him from the midfield is massive. He was known and his play style anticipated by the players he has worked with over many years.

There's no like for like available - we don't have a spare 2021 all Australian squad level mid hanging out in the reserves.

It is going to take time for the midfield to bed down with a new structure. And yes, they might need to test out a few players to find the needed chemistry.

The midfield doesn't need wholesale change, just time.

 

[Nunez]

The chat about Zorko ignore the reality of his Achilles problem. At half back he can use his skills and vision without having to click up the ks. Which he clearly can't manage.

The move could easily have been - does Zorko retire or do we find a way to use his weapons and keep him on the field?

Losing him from the midfield is massive. He was known and his play style anticipated by the players he has worked with over many years.

There's no like for like available - we don't have a spare 2021 all Australian squad level mid hanging out in the reserves.

It is going to take time for the midfield to bed down with a new structure. And yes, they might need to test out a few players to find the needed chemistry.

The midfield doesn't need wholesale change, just time.

Please take your logic out of the thread.

Out: Zorko
In: anyone

 

[Mighty Lions]

Our 5-12 record in blockbusters/prime time slots suggests we struggle in big fixture games.

Statistics such as that are mis-leading in my opinion. You put it to any player in our group that big games such as this one coming up has a negative impact on their performance & their response back would quite bluntly be a strong NO.

 

[lioninthesand]

Statistics such as that are mis-leading in my opinion. You put it to any player in our group that big games such as this one coming up has a negative impact on their performance & their response back would quite bluntly be a strong NO.

The notion that a ‘big game’ has no impact on a players psychology or performance is fairly out there Mate - but you run with what ever theory works for you.

 

[Elixuh]

Please take your logic out of the thread.

Out: Zorko
In: anyone

I’d prefer to play 1 short than let Zorko spend one more minute in the seniors.

 

[lioninthesand]

What's your definition of a blockbuster game to get these numbers?

Usually I'd limit to Thursday and Friday nights because they're the games the teams lobby for as "blockbusters".

We're 2-2 on Thursday nights.
We're 4-3 on Friday nights.

That's already more wins than you're counting, and nowhere near the same number of games.

If you're throwing in finals, our 1-5 record takes it to 7-10. Of course that ignores the slightly misleading result because it's literally against the very best clubs each time - we've lost to either top 4 teams or grand finalists each time. Obviously we need to turn this around but it's a separate failing of the team currently.

On a related note for anyone who laments our finals record, I often feel like they'd be happier with us finishing 5th. We could smash 8th each year, be 50/50 to win the next game, and probably lose in the PF. That way we could be about 3-3 or 4-3 in finals over the last three years but have had worse chances to actually win the premiership.

Our record since 2019 in big games Thursday/Friday/finals, since our rise has started is 6 and 12, I missed one in my inital scan.

I also threw in a Tuesday VS the tigers which was 100% a spiteful blockbuster at the time.

Of those wins - 1 was againts a hapless bombers and 2 were againts the pies where we fell in when we were fancied to win.

Of the loses 4 we’re very close loses, which must be noted. But if you remove the 4 close loses - the remaining 8 are an average losing margin of 34 - so decent loses.

The others were really strong wins vs cats and tigers.

You can isolate things to look better, no worries with me, I could be accused of isolating things to look worse.

I would actually argue round 1 should be thrown in too, because there is such hype, build up and expectation - but that is break even at 2-2. But overall our round 1 form in the last 3 years under hype and expectation - has been poor.

I love our team, I am bullish about our long term prospects (next 5 years), there is lots to love.

I strongly believe, both on gut and stats that we are a younger top 4 calibre team, who still get skittish and don’t execute to our peak, when on the big stage under the bright lights.

Also - the notion players don’t feel the lead up or anymore pressure in a blockbuster or big game is laughable, but I don’t think you were suggesting that.

Going into this game I would feel a lot more confident with playing the pies at 2:10pm Saturday or 4:40pm Sunday at the Gabba (hidden away with little focus and fanfare) than I do with it being a standalone Easter Thursday game.

Your opposition sets themselves for it, more of their supporters travel, the club emphasise the importance of the fixture to the clubs sponsors and bottom line and everyone is watching - that leads to pressure. It’s Easter Thursday.. there is pressure.

I still think we win, I just worry under that pressure, sometimes we are skittish or make things harder than they need to be.

The main argument I’d say run againts my theory is you are generally playing a better opposition, but that doesent really stack up in comparison to our overall W/L.

Good discussion and 1 I hope I am proven wrong in going forward.

 

[mpal6]

Hes 28. We don’t have time to let him find his feet at AFL level against dud rucks. Go back to the Essendon game when Draper got the best of our two rucks for a comparison.

I'd argue Tom Hickey has found his feet only at 30+ after arriving at Swans.

Essendon Draper is a Mumford type ruck with better ground coverage for someone playing a ruckman role. Not many rucks can go with him to be honest.

 

[dlanod]

lioninthesand I think you forgot the actual reply.

 

[lioninthesand]

lioninthesand I think you forgot the actual reply.

Sorry just edited

 

[Tom14]

Our record since 2019 in big games Thursday/Friday/finals, since our rise has started is 6 and 12, I missed one in my inital scan.

I also threw in a Tuesday VS the tigers which was 100% a spiteful blockbuster at the time.

Of those wins - 1 was againts a hapless bombers and 2 were againts the pies where we fell in when we were fancied to win.

Of the loses 4 we’re very close loses, which must be noted. But if you remove the 4 close loses - the remaining 8 are an average losing margin of 34 - so decent loses.

The others were really strong wins vs cats and tigers.

You can isolate things to look better, no worries with me, I could be accused of isolating things to look worse.

I would actually argue round 1 should be thrown in too, because there is such hype, build up and expectation - but that is break even at 2-2. But overall our round 1 form in the last 3 years under hype and expectation - has been poor.

I love our team, I am bullish about our long term prospects (next 5 years), there is lots to love.

I strongly believe, both on gut and stats that we are a younger top 4 calibre team, who still get skittish and don’t execute to our peak, when on the big stage under the bright lights.

Also - the notion players don’t feel the lead up or anymore pressure in a blockbuster or big game is laughable, but I don’t think you were suggesting that.

Going into this game I would feel a lot more confident with playing the pies at 2:10pm Saturday or 4:40pm Sunday at the Gabba (hidden away with little focus and fanfare) than I do with it being a standalone Easter Thursday game.

Your opposition sets themselves for it, more of their supporters travel, the club emphasise the importance of the fixture to the clubs sponsors and bottom line and everyone is watching - that leads to pressure. It’s Easter Thursday.. there is pressure.

I still think we win, I just worry under that pressure, sometimes we are skittish or make things harder than they need to be.

The main argument I’d say run againts my theory is you are generally playing a better opposition, but that doesent really stack up in comparison to our overall W/L.

Good discussion and 1 I hope I am proven wrong in going forward.

I’m sorry I can’t include that Tuesday one in the tally. That was with 5-6 players out, in the middle of the ‘festival of footy’ in front of no crowd at Carrara. Not exactly a big prime time game that one.

 

[Dalions]

I’m sorry I can’t include that Tuesday one in the tally. That was with 5-6 players out, in the middle of the ‘festival of footy’ in front of no crowd at Carrara. Not exactly a big prime time game that one.

Or a blockbuster.

 

[martinson]

Fagan has flagged a few times the ' learning experiences' required to perform on the big stage.

I don't think our record is poor but it's not that flash either.

So far we haven't been up to it on some occasions , we've performed well on others and overall about how you'd expect from an emerging team against very good opposition.

We're at the stage now where we need to be winning more of these games if we're to win a flag with the current crop.

Obviously more adrenalin flows for players in the lead up and on the day of 'big games' .Some players have always been great big game players i.e Hodge etc. , others take time to adapt to the extra pressure. And get better at it or not.

 

[lioninthesand]

I’m sorry I can’t include that Tuesday one in the tally. That was with 5-6 players out, in the middle of the ‘festival of footy’ in front of no crowd at Carrara. Not exactly a big prime time game that one.

Haha vs Tigers coming off that spiteful clash in the finals the year before, as the team going into the year we had to beat to take the next step - narr, nothing riding on that game. The crowd might have been small but that was a huge game for us, I distinctly recall it was highly billed/big test in the lead up.

But.. I’ll swap you a win againts bottom 4 Bombers at Metricon during COVID on a Friday night if ya want? The stats remain the same that way.

 

[lioninthesand]

Fagan has flagged a few times the ' learning experiences' required to perform on the big stage.

I don't think our record is poor but it's not that flash either.

So far we haven't been up to it on some occasions , we've performed well on others and overall about how you'd expect from an emerging team against very good opposition.

We're at the stage now where we need to be winning more of these games if we're to win a flag with the current crop.

Obviously more adrenalin flows for players in the lead up and on the day of 'big games' .Some players have always been great big game players i.e Hodge etc. , others take time to adapt to the extra pressure. And get better at it or not.

100% spot on. Can’t believe anyone would even dispute that big games require more steal and effect players more in the lead up.

That means, in reverse, there no reason to ever highlight a ‘big game player’

I also think like you said, the main reason is we are probably ahead of where we should be experience wise VS the big games we are playing in. It’s not necessarily we are mentally weak.

It’s a devalopment thing, I look forward to the day I can say ‘we love the big stage’ which is what it takes to be a dynasty level team, we are just not there yet.

 

[Tom14]

Haha vs Tigers coming off that spiteful clash in the finals the year before, as the team going into the year we had to beat to take the next step - narr, nothing riding on that game. The crowd might have been small but that was a huge game for us, I distinctly recall it was highly billed/big test in the lead up.

Our key position options after Harris and Eric for that game were Skinner, Ballenden, Payne. No Rich, Birchall, McStay, Stef or even frog (adams too but he barely played in 2020). Also had Witho, CEY playing. Played on a 4 day break (including the day of the game) whereas the tigers had a 6 day break.

I'm sorry, I'm not calling that a poor perforamnce in any way related ot doing badly in 'blockbusters.'

 

[lioninthesand]

Our key position options after Harris and Eric for that game were Skinner, Ballenden, Payne. No Rich, Birchall, McStay, Stef or even frog (adams too but he barely played in 2020). Also had Witho, CEY playing. Played on a 4 day break (including the day of the game) whereas the tigers had a 6 day break.

I'm sorry, I'm not calling that a poor perforamnce in any way related ot doing badly in 'blockbusters.'

No worries, I edited above. I’ll trade you the bottom 4 Bombers on a Friday night at Metricon under similar circumstances then, that can come off the win ledger and the tally stays the same. If we want to get bogged down in semantics?

Anytime we played the Tigers in the phase it was huge.

I would need to sift through every game to asses injury and other factors to either team, but we are going for an overall picture here.

Do you actually think we perform well on the big stage or in big games?

 

[dlanod]

Can’t believe anyone would even dispute that big games require more steal and effect players more in the lead up.

My main disputation is your ad hoc and subjective selection of what would be considered a "big game" or blockbuster.

On a more objective method, we win over 50% of prime time games and we win < 20% of finals.

The latter is a bigger issue.

 

[mpal6]

We just have to keep backing Cam Rayner in and hope it pays off in the second half of the season.

He's the closest to Petracca we have in our list, will definitely take time to gain confidence with that knee.

 

[Tom14]

No worries, I edited above. I’ll trade you the bottom 4 Bombers on a Friday night at Metricon under similar circumstances then, that can come off the win ledger and the tally stays the same. If we want to get bogged down in semantics?

Anytime we played the Tigers in the phase it was huge.

Do you actually think we perform well on the big stage or in big games or are you just chiming in to try and one up me on little points that really have very little baring on the overall discussion?

Love semantics, can't get enough of it, particularly with that particular 2020 game that I remember arguing with Tigers fans in the lead up to the qualifying final was a totally irrelevent game. But in terms of your broader point, a few thoughts

I think our performance has far more to do with team deficiencies, personnel and match ups rather than a perceived mental effect. You can never prove that the mental effect is there - maybe it is for some players, maybe it isn't. I'd say we have been better recently but that can easily be put down to being better than the opponent on the day. 2019 was a long time ago too, and 2020 a weird season to include comparison wise. Maybe we are overawed, maybe we aren't - not sure what the discussion serves as it isn't proveable either way.

As dlanod has said including finals is going to skew this stat because we've played the grand finalists of the last 3 years in our 6 finals. Poor record has much more to do with quality of opponent than anything else and maybe what we lack as a team. I dunno, looking at win loss in these games without context to make the claim that we choke doesn't do much. Were we clutch last year when beating the pies by a kick after the siren, despite probably playing worse in that game than the one we lost the previous week by a point down in geelong?

 

[dlanod]

Were we clutch last year when beating the pies by a kick after the siren, despite probably playing worse in that game than the one we lost the previous week by a point down in geelong?

We need trigger warnings for this kind of stuff please Tom. Don't just sneak it in at the end of a post and give me whiplash from the flinch recalling those two games.

 

[Tom14]

We need trigger warnings for this kind of stuff please Tom. Don't just sneak it in at the end of a post and give me whiplash from the flinch recalling those two games.

You think you had whiplash? I went to both of those monstrosities! Had the worst kebab of my life postgame in Geelong too, just a brutal couple of weeks.