Preview Changes Round 10 vs Carlton

[weltschmerz]

In: this jumper

 

[bresker]

Anyone concerned about Brambles form?

He was invisible last week. I forgot he was playing until he had a kick towards the end.

 

[bresker]

Carlton only have won a single game this year . TBF i think they're better than this, not much, but a bit better.

If Bev puts even a modicum, a mere soupçon of tagging work into Walsh and/or Cripps. I can't see how they win this one. A tagging bagatelle.

 

[stevieg1969]

Voss has resigned!

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Got a whole lot more interesting, this game.

Dead cat bounce?!

 

[Sid Nullis]

Out Voss in Fraser. I knew he would get the arse before our game

 

[Golden_6]

I certainly feel like we get more of these games than any other club based on no statistical evidence.

 

[MaxiBont]

Why does this always happen before our games?

 

[House_of_Dahl]

OMG the dead coach bounce

 

[Redders98]

Load up on the blues!

 

[Golden_6]

The next 3 weeks will determine whether we get stuck in that 7-10th range or could still challenge the top 4.

We have the Blues, Demons & Pies at Marvel. We could head into the second half of the season 8-4 or something like 6-6 and fighting for survival each week.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Oh FFS. Of course he resigns this week.

 

[Dogsfan1]

Oh FFS. Of course he resigns this week.

Our luck lol

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Hope it is not :

keep Voss another loss
Put him in the bin and win

I text my blues mate and said Voss would get the sack (technically resigned) after the lions game and before the dogs game bookmark it. Just knew we would need to contend with the dead coach bounce and the board would pick a game where they think they could win do justify their decision.

 

[gordo2016]

Not many teams win the following week after a sacking a coach mid season. People can think that it makes the team play better but the records show this isn't the case.

 

[Mofra]

Gotta bring in Baker now to keep the balance of redheads intact

 

[Dogs Rule]

No excuses. We just have to keep winning. Couldn't care less what Carlton are doing or not doing. Irrelevant.

 

[Oliver G]

Not many teams win the following week after a sacking a coach mid season. People can think that it makes the team play better but the records show this isn't the case.

In the 18-team era, it's happened 17 times (18 games though, if you count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019)...


R = result, M = margin, T - LP = team's ladder position going into that round, O - LP = opposition's ladder position going into that round.

Overall in that period, it's 8 wins and 10 losses for the caretaker/outgoing coach, with 4 of those 8 wins considered major upsets (against top 8 teams).

In terms of opponents in caretaker games, it's...

4x Western Bulldogs*
3x Brisbane
2x Port Adelaide, Richmond, St. Kilda
1x Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast
0x Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne

*3x for the Western Bulldogs, if you DON'T count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019.
*The table only includes coaches who resigned or were sacked, it does not include Phil Walsh in 2015 or James Hird in 2013 for example.

 

[Leon]

Why does this always happen before our games?

Whenever Chris Scott goes from Geelong, it’ll be before playing us.

At Kardinia Park.

And with one of their players in a milestone game.

Guarantee.

 

[Fossie 32]

In the 18-team era, it's happened 17 times (18 games though, if you count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019)...

View attachment 2608861
R = result, M = margin, T - LP = team's ladder position going into that round, O - LP = opposition's ladder position going into that round.

Overall, it's 8 wins and 10 losses for the caretaker/outgoing coach, with 4 of those 8 wins considered major upsets (against top 8 teams).

In terms of opponents in caretaker games, it's...

4x Western Bulldogs*
3x Brisbane
2x Port Adelaide, Richmond, St. Kilda
1x Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast
0x Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne

*3x for the Western Bulldogs, if you DON'T count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019.
*I believe the table is correct, although I haven't double-checked it in a while, so there could be some errors.
*The table only includes coaches who resigned or were sacked, it does not include Phil Walsh in 2015 or James Hird in 2013.

And 6 out of 18 were wins v teams higher in the ladder (one was 14 v 12, the rest likely to be unexpected) How does that compare to average? We lost 2 out of three but one was the 12 v 14 so not too bad (not too good either)

 

[Dazb86]

Smell an upset here. No English hurts badly.

 

[Sentinel]

In the 18-team era, it's happened 17 times (18 games though, if you count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019)...

View attachment 2608861
R = result, M = margin, T - LP = team's ladder position going into that round, O - LP = opposition's ladder position going into that round.

Overall in that period, it's 8 wins and 10 losses for the caretaker/outgoing coach, with 4 of those 8 wins considered major upsets (against top 8 teams).

In terms of opponents in caretaker games, it's...

4x Western Bulldogs*
3x Brisbane
2x Port Adelaide, Richmond, St. Kilda
1x Fremantle, Gold Coast, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast
0x Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, North Melbourne

*3x for the Western Bulldogs, if you DON'T count Brad Scott's farewell game and Rhyce Shaw's first game as caretaker as separate in 2019.
*I believe the table is correct, although I haven't double-checked it in a while, so there could be some errors. Spotted one already, should be Goodwin instead of King for Melbourne in 2025.
*The table only includes coaches who resigned or were sacked, it does not include Phil Walsh in 2015 or James Hird in 2013.

I posted the below in another thread. Going back to 2001, this will be our 6th game against a caretaker coach from a total of 27 (including Voss). It will be 7 of 27 if it were to be rephrased as 'first game after a sacking announcement' and we include vs North in 2019.

Fortunately our record is 4/5 (or 4/6 if including North 2019), which is a better record against teams coming off a sacking than the average.

Some stats:

• Since 2001, there have been 26 coaches sacked mid-season (Rodney Eade in 2011 being our only one).
• Following the sacking, the team won the following match 12 times and lost 14 times.
• We have been the 'next up' team on 5 of 26 occasions (with a 6th occasion to come this weekend), following the sackings of Goodwin (2025), Richardson (2019), Williams (2010), Laidley (2009), Blight (2001) and now Voss (2026). We won all but one of those 5 games, being the loss to St Kilda in 2019.
• Of other clubs to be 'next up', Brisbane, Port, Richmond and St Kilda have had this honour 3 times each, Carlton twice, and Adelaide, Fremantle, GC, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney and West coast one. Collingwood, Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne, North have not been next up over that period.
• Since 2001, Melbourne have sacked the most coaches mid-season (4), followed by Carlton, Fremantle and North (3 each), then GC, Port and St Kilda (2 each), and Adelaide, Brisbane, Essendon, Richmond, Sydney, West Coast and WB (1 each). Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS have not sacked any coach mid-season in that period.

In summary, yes since 2001 we are significantly over-represented, but fear not as our winning record against teams who have just sacked the coach (80%) is much higher than the average (54%).

 

[Fossie 32]

I posted the below in another thread. Going back to 2001, this will be our 6th game against a caretaker coach from a total of 27 (including Voss). It will be 7 of 27 if it were to be rephrased as 'first game after a sacking announcement' and we include vs North in 2019.

Fortunately our record is 4/5 (or 4/6 if including North 2019), which is a better record against teams coming off a sacking than the average.

So this proves the conspiracy against us but it hasn’t paid off for them

 

[Dogs 13]

Jeff Gieschen coached the Tigers to beat us at Princes Park in his first match as interim coach when they sacked Robert Walls back in 1997.
I left the ground pretty pissed off as I remember, especially with him being an ex Dog’s player.

 

[Doggy]

Calm down people.... if we come to play we still win. Simple.