Prediction Changes vs Brisbane

[Tex200]

Is Gov a better mark than Walker?

No doubt.

MCGovern is elite. Played 18 games!!

 

[benji2]

Wouldn't be too upset if Tex missed another week if it meant he could get over whatever has been hampering him all season, as well as the ankle.

Even though Thompson's numbers weren’t that bad last night when I looked at them, rest him - now. Give him a game in the ressies after that, see if he can get something like his old form back which will be very handy in the finals.

Hopefully Mackay is only in to see what he can offer against the two bottom teams, then the penny will drop (and so will he), but I fear that's wishful thinking.

 

[Mike Smyth]

Out:
Sauce, McKay, Douglas

In:
ROB, Grigg, CEY

To send the right message to our young guys playing sanfl, griig and cey must be rewarded for their consistent form especially when the likes of McKay, Douglas and thommo are having such average years.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Looks like Doedee and Wigg won't get a look in this season now so for this week I'd go:

- Hampton for Mackay
- CEY for Thompson
- Walker for Douglas
- ROB for Sauce (1-2 weeks only).

F: Betts, Jenkins, McGovern
HF: Lynch, Walker, Cameron
C: Smith, Sloane, Seedsman
HB: Cheney, Hartigan, Laird
B: Brown, Talia, Lever
1R: ROB, B Crouch, Lyons
Int: M Crouch, CEY, Hampton, Atkins

 

[1970crow]

Sloanes game time was below 80 percent hey?

Hey lg, still waiting to find out whether there was a point hidden in this sentence. We're you trying to imply something intuitive? Sloane's game time was below 80% and consistent with his average this year of about 78%. Can you let me know the point, I'm dieing to find out.

 

[xazos79]

Is Gov a better mark than Walker?

Better contested definitely. But almost every game Shooter drops an absolute gimme under no pressure. Did it again on the weekend. Has to be a confidence thing....

 

[Ozzie]

Atkins gunned it in that inside/outside role. I really see that as his future, working in the hustle and bustle, not stuck out on a wing. Can't get past Mackay in there now though, gotta keep his 'best' role open for him. Team first, my ass.

If it was team first Thompson would be dropped this week. He is done. Got his 300 up, time to hang them up.

 

[Team DJ]

Out: Sauce (Rest) Talia (Rest) Thompson (Rest)
In: OBrien CEY Grigg

OBrien is the obvious one. Time to reward CEY and Grigg who have been dominant at SANFL level, and a chance to see if they have any future at the club.

 

[Coopers]

No doubt.

MCGovern is elite. Played 18 games!!

Dunno, maybe not quite yet. He seems to be able to clunk some amazing marks but fumble them when uncontested...

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Better contested definitely. But almost every game Shooter drops an absolute gimme under no pressure. Did it again on the weekend. Has to be a confidence thing....

Concentration rather than confidence I think.

 

[azza77]

Jog on! Pushed off contest by an 18 year old first year player, bombed high to no one down the line or into the pockets, cheap last quarter possessions when the game was done as per usual, burned teammates and got totally outsprinted using his elite pace...LOL. Keep lapping up the dmac Kool aid though, only 2 years and 800 grand more to go. He's hartlett without the kicking and tackling, front runner of the highest order.

Yeah that moment where he got completely bitched by an 18 year old Parish and Franics was just typical, typical David Mackay.

Can't even outsmart/outbody/outrun a bunch of n00bs and yet people want him in the side come finals time....SMH

 

[marty36]

Looks like Doedee and Wigg won't get a look in this season now so for this week I'd go:

- Hampton for Mackay
- CEY for Thompson
- Walker for Douglas
- ROB for Sauce (1-2 weeks only).

F: Betts, Jenkins, McGovern
HF: Lynch, Walker, Cameron
C: Smith, Sloane, Seedsman
HB: Cheney, Hartigan, Laird
B: Brown, Talia, Lever
1R: ROB, B Crouch, Lyons
Int: M Crouch, CEY, Hampton, Atkins

I watched Doedee on the box on the weekend saw him against the bay's he is nowhere near ready what are you talking about

 

[SmegHead]

So do we want to win by 100 plus or do we want to play youth/give debuts? Can't have both peeps.

If Sauce doesn't get up I suspect the only change will be ROB in.

If Sauce is right to go, no change.

I too would love for Hampton, CEY and Wigg to come in but Pyke has shown all year a reluctance to upset team continuity for the sake of making changes, this will not change this week.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Finals aren't a place to carry softies (or in Mackay's case players who repeatedly fail to get the job done in physical contests). I reckon 1 at most if we can help it…and that place goes to Atkins who isn't soft but his defensive stuff leaves a lot to be desired. The thing is Atkins is special with ball in hand (not on the weekend but usually)…he could win us a final.

Seedsman has acceptable physicality, Mackay and Henderson do not. That should be the difference.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

So do we want to win by 100 plus or do we want to play youth/give debuts? Can't have both peeps.

If Sauce doesn't get up I suspect the only change will be ROB in.

If Sauce is right to go, no change.

I too would love for Hampton, CEY and Wigg to come in but Pyke has shown all year a reluctance to upset team continuity for the sake of making changes, this will not change this week.

This is an absolute fallacy, assuming it's done with common sense and the right players are chosen to debut/be dropped.

The thinking that a mediocre experienced player is always the better choice is such a conservative, typical AFC approach.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

We need 1-2 more QUALITY ball users who can play inside/outside before finals hit…at least one of Hampton, Menzel, Wigg, Milera need to make the step up.

For all the positives of this season, and there are many, I just struggle to have confidence in this midfield group to consistently get the job done when it counts…too many weak links, especially defensively.

 

[xazos79]

Concentration rather than confidence I think.

That's the word i was looking for.

 

[Archie87]

Yeah that moment where he got completely bitched by an 18 year old Parish and Franics was just typical, typical David Mackay.

Can't even outsmart/outbody/outrun a bunch of n00bs and yet people want him in the side come finals time....SMH

Watching the replay and in the third quarter there was a play with Lyons vs. Parish with Bombers around to help. Lyons the slower of the two still managed to keep his feet, stay in the contest and force a ball up.

Mackay? Has front position against an 18 year old but completely muffs it and gets outbodied. Perfect example of a clever footballer vs. an athlete.

 

[Jack is Back]

Firstly it is pleasing that all the "drop McGovern", "drop Charlie" posters are silent this week. The role they have been playing means they are unlikely to get more than 10-15 disposals a week. The key factor is how they use these possessions (kicking goals and goal assists) plus the other ways they can impact on the game. A similar argument applies to Douglas and Lyons, they play a combination of midfield and forward so you would expect 15-20 disposals a game. I guess this week the delist Dear posters return and Dear must play AFL posters disappear.

Our top possession winners (excluding loose men in defence) should be our inside mids and we have reduced their TOG since the first half of the season so 25-30 disposals is expected. Over the last 4 weeks the stats for our inside mids are;
Sloane - 21.7 effective disposals, 7.0 clearances, 6.3 tackles
Thommo- 17.7 ED, 5.0 Cl, 7.8 T
M Crouch - 21.7 ED, 3.5 D, 4.0 T
B Crouch - 19.0 ED, 4.5 Cl, 7.0 T
Clearly Thommo has been hopeless and must be banished for ever (#amidoingitright). Second in clearances, first in tackles.

I do agree that we should give him a rest but I think the Freo match is the best option. No travel and avoids 2 straight 6 day breaks. I would bring in CEY but I can also see justification for bringing in Wigg.

The main remaining question is whether we play 2 or 3 outside mids and which ones. If fit, it would not surprise me to see Hendo return and The SEED miss out. Whilst The RAT hasn't been great in the last two weeks, he has been our best outside mid this year. You can then throw a blanket (many would like to throw a blanket) over Hendo, Bran Nue Mackae and The SEED. My preference is to keep The SEED but I would not bet on this.

If Tex and Sauce miss out this week, my guess is

Out - Jacobs and Seedsman
In - O'Brien and Henderson

 

[WetCrow1991]

So do we want to win by 100 plus or do we want to play youth/give debuts? Can't have both peeps.

If Sauce doesn't get up I suspect the only change will be ROB in.

If Sauce is right to go, no change.

I too would love for Hampton, CEY and Wigg to come in but Pyke has shown all year a reluctance to upset team continuity for the sake of making changes, this will not change this week.

We did neither this week so may as well try it.

 

[1990crow]

Firstly it is pleasing that all the "drop McGovern", "drop Charlie" posters are silent this week. The role they have been playing means they are unlikely to get more than 10-15 disposals a week. The key factor is how they use these possessions (kicking goals and goal assists) plus the other ways they can impact on the game. A similar argument applies to Douglas and Lyons, they play a combination of midfield and forward so you would expect 15-20 disposals a game. I guess this week the delist Dear posters return and Dear must play AFL posters disappear.

Our top possession winners (excluding loose men in defence) should be our inside mids and we have reduced their TOG since the first half of the season so 25-30 disposals is expected. Over the last 4 weeks the stats for our inside mids are;
Sloane - 21.7 effective disposals, 7.0 clearances, 6.3 tackles
Thommo- 17.7 ED, 5.0 Cl, 7.8 T
M Crouch - 21.7 ED, 3.5 D, 4.0 T
B Crouch - 19.0 ED, 4.5 Cl, 7.0 T
Clearly Thommo has been hopeless and must be banished for ever (#amidoingitright). Second in clearances, first in tackles.

I do agree that we should give him a rest but I think the Freo match is the best option. No travel and avoids 2 straight 6 day breaks. I would bring in CEY but I can also see justification for bringing in Wigg.

The main remaining question is whether we play 2 or 3 outside mids and which ones. If fit, it would not surprise me to see Hendo return and The SEED miss out. Whilst The RAT hasn't been great in the last two weeks, he has been our best outside mid this year. You can then throw a blanket (many would like to throw a blanket) over Hendo, Bran Nue Mackae and The SEED. My preference is to keep The SEED but I would not bet on this.

If Tex and Sauce miss out this week, my guess is

Out - Jacobs and Seedsman
In - O'Brien and Henderson

Dont do that to us man. Seedsman > Hendo > Mackay.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Firstly it is pleasing that all the "drop McGovern", "drop Charlie" posters are silent this week. The role they have been playing means they are unlikely to get more than 10-15 disposals a week. The key factor is how they use these possessions (kicking goals and goal assists) plus the other ways they can impact on the game. A similar argument applies to Douglas and Lyons, they play a combination of midfield and forward so you would expect 15-20 disposals a game. I guess this week the delist Dear posters return and Dear must play AFL posters disappear.

Our top possession winners (excluding loose men in defence) should be our inside mids and we have reduced their TOG since the first half of the season so 25-30 disposals is expected. Over the last 4 weeks the stats for our inside mids are;
Sloane - 21.7 effective disposals, 7.0 clearances, 6.3 tackles
Thommo- 17.7 ED, 5.0 Cl, 7.8 T
M Crouch - 21.7 ED, 3.5 D, 4.0 T
B Crouch - 19.0 ED, 4.5 Cl, 7.0 T
Clearly Thommo has been hopeless and must be banished for ever (#amidoingitright). Second in clearances, first in tackles.

I do agree that we should give him a rest but I think the Freo match is the best option. No travel and avoids 2 straight 6 day breaks. I would bring in CEY but I can also see justification for bringing in Wigg.

The main remaining question is whether we play 2 or 3 outside mids and which ones. If fit, it would not surprise me to see Hendo return and The SEED miss out. Whilst The RAT hasn't been great in the last two weeks, he has been our best outside mid this year. You can then throw a blanket (many would like to throw a blanket) over Hendo, Bran Nue Mackae and The SEED. My preference is to keep The SEED but I would not bet on this.

If Tex and Sauce miss out this week, my guess is

Out - Jacobs and Seedsman
In - O'Brien and Henderson

I could cry if Seedsman makes way while Mackay and Henderson remain!

I see what you're saying re Thompson's output. It's not drastically low but the question is one of team balance. Do we have one too many inside mids? Do we have too many players who cannot defend in open space and run back hard into defence? Meh, it wouldn't matter…he won't be dropped.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Dont do that to us man. Seedsman > Hendo > Mackay.

Agree 100%.

 

[Jack is Back]

Dont do that to us man. Seedsman > Hendo > Mackay.

Vader sent me "the list" and it clearly states Hendo > Mackay > Seedsman

I also think we have one too many inside mids. If we rest Thommo, I would prefer to give Lyons more inside mid time and bring in a genuine small/medium forward. Whilst I think Wigg > Hendo > Mackay, he has been playing mostly as an inside mid in the SANFL so I can't see this happening.

 

[Shaz2012]

Outs: Sauce, Mackay
Ins: O'Brien, Menzel

Personally, I would like us to blood Wigg for Thompson and give Milera a game and rest a veteran like Dougie. But clearly that is not what Pyke is going to do.