News Coronavirus Thread

[7577969923]

When did it become a USA vs. China issue?

I know the media are trying to paint this as a east vs. west "they started it"..."no you did"

Governments lie. China suppressed the severity of this for a long time. I'm not sure we should be trusting the news from a communist country. They're about as reliable as Russia's "we're all sweet here. No issue"

So it's just a gang up on China issue and the USA shouldn't be held to the same standard? Your post was critical of China and I was pointing out that the USA is deeply flawed on this issue as well.

There is no denying that the Chinese made an enormous hash of things early on by trying to ignore and then cover up the problem, but once they realised the gravity of the issue and that they would suffer damage to their international reputation they realised they had to come clean. The WHO has been on the ground throughout that time and has validated the Chinese numbers.

The USA on the other hand as at the end of last week had tested fewer people overall than South Korea does in a day, or so they think. They don't actually have a way of accurately reporting total test numbers. There is also credible evidence that Trump wanted the CDC not to test people in January because positive tests would damage him politically. The real US numbers could be up to 100 times higher than those they are reporting.

Finally, having been to China many times over the past 28 years I can tell you they are communist in name only these days. Either way, as the debacle in the US demonstrates, free capitalist societies are equally capable of serving up misinformation.

 

[GreatBradScott]

Countries with authoritarian and big governments will probably do better than smaller ones. Competence will also be an equation too, for every South Korea, there is an Iran etc.

 

[7577969923]

As I understand it, your boss wants to break the law.

In the union?

No. The compulsory self-isolation isn't retrospective and neither Malaysia or Singapore were banned countries.

 

[7577969923]

The extreme measures (shutting down events, people losing income etc) and the unnecessary panic (selfishly clearing the shelves at the supermarket etc.) is going to hurt us more than the actual virus itself

My close mate has lost all his contracts (he is self employed) until further notice. Going to behind in his mortgage payments and unable to afford shit. Of course he is not alone, but this kind of thing is more damaging than him catching a cold

Whether it’s necessary for all these extreme measures is up for debate as I understand our infrastructure (hospitals etc) cannot cope with a virus that is spreading this quickly but could be dealt with in other countries.

Maybe it’s exposing that we are not prepared for things like this? Need more funding perhaps?

All in all, I am ******* devastated that there is a possibility that there will be no footy in 2020. WTF am I gonna do with myself!
/insert dirty jokes

It's tough but it's really not. What we know about this virus is that if left unchecked the amount of infection double every six days. That would mean we would be on track for a million infections before the end of April. In China about 15% of all infections require hospitalisation and about 4% required acute care. By the time we get to a million infection at around the end of April we would have up 150 rocking up to hospitals and 40k of those needing acute care. We have a less than 3,000 acute care beds in all Australian hospitals. That is when people that would otherwise live with the right care end up dying because it isn't available. That is what is happening in Italy right now.

 

[The acurate one]

Turned on the Tele which is rare for me , thought I’d see how bad shit is. Wow first thought was it’s bloody 11:55 on shit is ****ed up clock . Then I realised it was actually war of the worlds .

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Countries with authoritarian and big governments will probably do better than smaller ones. Competence will also be an equation too, for every South Korea, there is an Iran etc.

Yes and no with the authoritarian regimes.

Long-term, relatively healthy and stable authoritarian regimes like China always had a better chance because they have strong systems in place, have a largely compliant civilian population and are capable of rapidly mobilising resources (much better than western liberal systems in a lot of ways).

Weaker and less stable regimes like Iran (at present for various reasons) suffer from the same weaknesses that all authoritarian regimes suffer from. Their systems can easily fall away because of high inefficiency, a lack of public trust and often possessing a bloated corrupt public service, not to mention possible external factors like sanctions (Iran).



Whilst public trust is also an issue for democracies, it is more for an issue for authoritarian regimes because they rely heavily on propaganda, violence, various forms of clientelism and political-social bargaining (i.e. we will accept the forfeiture of certain rights in exchange for greater social welfare/medical care, etc.). Political legitimacy will come under great strain if the government doesn't perform. The consequences are more severe in China's case as they are an authoritarian state and lack popular forms of legitimacy and rely on other means of legitimacy.

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

We currently have 1 critical case from 342 active confirmed cases (I would think at least 10,000 if not more people have it already and haven’t been tested)

We have had 5 deaths so far, aged 77,78,82,90 and 95 with 3 of the 5 in the same aged care facility.

This is a serious situation and I applaud us taking it seriously but maybe check the stats a bit.

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

It's tough but it's really not. What we know about this virus is that if left unchecked the amount of infection double every six days. That would mean we would be on track for a million infections before the end of April. In China about 15% of all infections require hospitalisation and about 4% required acute care. By the time we get to a million infection at around the end of April we would have up 150 rocking up to hospitals and 40k of those needing acute care. We have a less than 3,000 acute care beds in all Australian hospitals. That is when people that would otherwise live with the right care end up dying because it isn't available. That is what is happening in Italy right now.

So China a nation of over a billion people have had the virus for over 3 months for 80,000 cases, but our nation of 26mill is going to have 1,000,000 cases and 40k critical in 2 months?

In before you say “don’t trust China” - you used their percentages

 

[arden station]

Nothing to do with 'ego', it's the Minister's name on the ballot paper and their staff's jobs on the line accordingly, not the bureaucrat.

In an instance such as this the advice would be being taken straight down the line. The CMO, his committee and the National Cabinet are taking advice from world leading experts, not just relying on their own knowledge. Clearly there are contested views but they can do no more than that.

Not in my experience, I've seen dumbfoundingly stupid, ego-driven decisions made by ministers, defying expert advice, the worst of which thankfully didn't make it through the Senate. And just because their jobs were on the line doesn't mean they took the advice of experts.

As for this situation, as I said, there are leading Australian immunologists who are at odds with the government's position, and there's a number of possible explanations for why that's the case but it's opaque so we don't actually know. But please enlighten us if you actually know more and aren't speculating.

 

[DesertRoo]

We currently have 1 critical case from 342 active confirmed cases (I would think at least 10,000 if not more people have it already and haven’t been tested)

We have had 5 deaths so far, aged 77,78,82,90 and 95 with 3 of the 5 in the same aged care facility.

This is a serious situation and I applaud us taking it seriously but maybe check the stats a bit.

You speak far to much sense for in here, now please go and tell all the gen y and millennials to stay away from health services.

 

[7577969923]

So China a nation of over a billion people have had the virus for over 3 months for 80,000 cases, but our nation of 26mill is going to have 1,000,000 cases and 40k critical in 2 months?

In before you say “don’t trust China” - you used their percentages

Actually I am not going to say don't trust China. I actually think after realising how badly they had stuffed up at the start of this they have actually been pretty good with their reporting. The WHO has been on hand and has backed up China's reporting. There is a chance that like anywhere people suffering mild symptoms or who were positive but asymptomatic were missed but that is true everywhere.

You will notice that my post included the phrase "if left unchecked". China enacted the biggest shutdown of a country in the history of humanity, proving that aggressive quarantine, social distancing etc really do work in controlling the spread. Similarly, South Korea has proved that a testing regime on a major scale backed up by quarantine and tracking contacts can also work. Some form of intervention is needed to stop it happening.

The experts and I don't claim to be one, predict that between 25% and 70% of the Australian population could become infected. That's about 6 to 17 million people. They sound high but then consider that roughly 10% to 20% of the US population get infected with the seasonal flu each year and the Spanish flu infected 27% of the world's population.

Take a look at infection rates in Australia and Italy over the past two six-day periods:

Italy - 2,036 - 7,375 - 21,157
Australia - 33 - 77 - 249

Now project forward another 5 to 10 six-day cycles without intervention.

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

You speak far to much sense for in here, now please go and tell all the gen y and millennials to stay away from health services.

Combo of a thirsty, fear-mongering media getting paid by the click and an easily influenced younger society that hasn’t been through anything major is a perfect storm unfortunately.

 

[Gorman2Geister]

Turned on the Tele which is rare for me , thought I’d see how bad shit is. Wow first thought was it’s bloody 11:55 on shit is f’ed up clock . Then I realised it was actually war of the worlds .

The next show will make you want to panic buy cat food!!

Those pesky prawns...

 

[Pykie]

We currently have 1 critical case from 342 active confirmed cases (I would think at least 10,000 if not more people have it already and haven’t been tested)

We have had 5 deaths so far, aged 77,78,82,90 and 95 with 3 of the 5 in the same aged care facility.

This is a serious situation and I applaud us taking it seriously but maybe check the stats a bit.

We are day 5 since human to human infection.

Flick over the television and tell me how Italy is going at the moment.

We have the same rate of infection as they did at day 5.

 

[The acurate one]

Combo of a thirsty, fear-mongering media getting paid by the click and an easily influenced younger society that hasn’t been through anything major is a perfect storm unfortunately.

While I don’t disagree and we’ve been controlled by fear in one form or another for years . I know many work places that are set to take drastic action, my included. So for once I’m actually listening .

No one knows what will happen but personally I’ve always been susceptible to flu’s and the like.

 

[GarnerSmash]

It's tough but it's really not. What we know about this virus is that if left unchecked the amount of infection double every six days. That would mean we would be on track for a million infections before the end of April. In China about 15% of all infections require hospitalisation and about 4% required acute care. By the time we get to a million infection at around the end of April we would have up 150 rocking up to hospitals and 40k of those needing acute care. We have a less than 3,000 acute care beds in all Australian hospitals. That is when people that would otherwise live with the right care end up dying because it isn't available. That is what is happening in Italy right now.

And Spain. 30% requiring hospitalisation, 10% critical. Crazy.

 

[GarnerSmash]

One thing we have to remember abput China is that Wuhan was shut down. People only permitted to leave their homes once a week. Thats what it took to control this.

 

[Carlos Herrrnandez]

While I don’t disagree and we’ve been controlled by fear in one form or another for years . I know many work places that are set to take drastic action, my included. So for once I’m actually listening .

No one knows what will happen but personally I’ve always been susceptible to flu’s and the like.

Mate, I’m not disagreeing with you - I did say it’s good that we are taking it seriously and a lockout is imminent which is a good thing. My comment about the perfect storm was the youngens clogging the hospitals when those older are the ones that need access.

Just saying let’s not get caught up with doomsday predictions just yet. Do you guys think the govt is going to let it escalate and escalate and not take significant action? While not locked down yet, the govt reaction has increased a fair bit over the last 4 days.

 

[WD Roo]

We are day 5 since human to human infection.

Flick over the television and tell me how Italy is going at the moment.

We have the same rate of infection as they did at day 5.

Actually Italy where at day 10 for 250 infected. The thing that makes countries like Italy and France worse is the closeness of the population. Our downside is winter is coming.....

 

[DesertRoo]

Actually Italy where at day 10 for 250 infected. The thing that makes countries like Italy and France worse is the closeness of the population. Our downside is winter is coming.....

Good thing testing starts Monday..

U.S. government official: coronavirus vaccine trial starts Monday

 

[7577969923]

Good thing testing starts Monday..

U.S. government official: coronavirus vaccine trial starts Monday

So all going well it should be available September....2021

 

[DesertRoo]

So all going well it should be available September....2021

Race for closer to home...

Researchers want to trial drug ‘cure’ for coronavirus on patients

A team of Australian researchers say they’ve found a cure for the novel coronavirus and hope to have patients enrolled in a nationwide trial by the end of the month.

www.news.com.au

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Actually Italy where at day 10 for 250 infected. The thing that makes countries like Italy and France worse is the closeness of the population. Our downside is winter is coming.....

On a bit of a side note:

The initial downside at the beginning was our strong linkages to China and Bali with the human flow from those two areas to Australia being high.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Race for closer to home...

Researchers want to trial drug ‘cure’ for coronavirus on patients

A team of Australian researchers say they’ve found a cure for the novel coronavirus and hope to have patients enrolled in a nationwide trial by the end of the month.

www.news.com.au

I was mostly interested in the China comments. Very interesting how their system was stretched to the system and the dearth of controlled testing data.

 

[Snake_Baker]

RMIT have advised their community that they're using the coming week to move to online delivery.

Heard the same thing from someone today.

Online lectures starting Wednesday.