Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

[Angry Red Bull]

Part of the problem is the uncertainty about morality rate. When it was above 3% and higher rate for the elderly 15% it is very threatening. At 1% which now appears the correct rate here in Aust it’s problematic but not threatening to same extent. Still there are multiple uncertainties with it being novel. What is long term damage to heart to lungs or other organs. Will it become more lethal. Remember back when hiv was new it was frightening too but at least with it you wouldn’t catch it going to the shops.

And it is conspicuous too. We are compelled to confront the risks because it runs wild through a population like a blaze.

I’m sure that many viruses and diseases exist but aren’t known to humanity until they are ‘discovered’. That microbe that lives in the gut and causes ulcers they once thought was due to stomach acid. Chronic fatigue syndrome (which I believe I had 30 years ago) which I’m certain is a virus but was repeatedly told there is nothing wrong with me. BS. Even last year I had this virus that lasted 3-4 months causing a dry cough that simply wouldn’t go away. My Doctor disputed it was because it had no known symptoms he recognised and instead started testing for underlying health issues when I KNEW it was a virus that was ultimately defeated. This year my elderly mother now has it.....same thing doctor saying it’s not viral. Those illnesses though aren’t conspicuous nor lethal so we are accepting. But Covid 19 is a huge unknown. Am I going to be in the 80% or the 20%...... or for that matter the 1%. Where you have underlying risk factors you know it’s more likely that you will be in the 20% or the 1% and that uncertainty plays with your head. I’m not an especially fearful person what will be will be but I have no control of this. I don’t drink and drive because it can kill. Indeed I don’t drink at all because it’s toxic and destructive. I don’t smoke likewise. They are choices I make to have control of my health. Covid 19 I can’t control whatsoever. I will either live or die.

The skill of our health workers the decisiveness of our politicians and the responsiveness of the community has given me control whereas places like the USA have none and when spread is uncontrolled death is 10% not 1%. That is the difference. If I hunker down at home until it’s all over then my risk is reduced to 0.5% say because we have control. It’s hard for me to accept I need to allow it to risk going back up to say 5% by releasing the brakes when all it may cost to retain control is 10% extra tax for 10 years maybe less. Simple choice to me.

 

[J_Moore]

And the ****ing statistics will be blown out of all proportion by people who have chest infections incorrectly counted as suffering from Covid.

Everyone will have COVID 19 until proven otherwise.

hi guys, what are you talking about?

 

[Ticky009]

Govt: We promise not to abuse any tracking app for Covid...
Govt: Yes, a member of the Prime Ministers staff illegally distributed Malcolm Turnbull's book.

Cannot be trusted with something as simple as a book why the * would I trust them with anything else?

 

[Olian]

hi guys, what are you talking about?

Here are the top death causes of death in Australia (ABS for 2018).

Rank	Cause of death	no.	years
1​	Heart disease	17,533​	84.70​
2​	Dementia, including Alzheimer disease	13,963​	89.00​
3​	Cerebrovascular diseases	9,972​	86.20​
4​	Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung	8,586​	73.60​
5​	Chronic lower respiratory diseases	7,889​	80.90​
6​	Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus	5,420​	77.00​
7​	Diabetes	4,656​	81.40​
8​	Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue	4,612​	78.20​
9​	Diseases of the urinary system	3,384​	86.80​
10​	Malignant neoplasm of prostate	3,264​	82.60​
14​	Intentional self-harm	3,046​	44.40​

First COVID 19 death in Australia was 1 March and as of today we've had 70. Although all those who passed may well have been suffering from conditions in the top 10. Roughly there have been ten COVID-19 equates a week.

In South Australia there are 4 people in hospital and only two of those in ICU. I'd suggest that there are more suffering from conditions in the top 10 in hospital.

We've gone and put a million plus into unemployment and put the economy of life support.
If we had done nothing then the numbers would have been higher like a Sweden or UK who were slow to react.

The governments response has reduced the spread it hasn't eliminated it. Without a vaccine we are in a holding pattern.

Every time there is a death they will be checking for COVID 19. You need to justify the economic suffering endured by all.

 

[Ticky009]

Sure. Every life is precious, I will not justify it by $$&&$

 

[Ticky009]

I love reading tweets by Dr's. Some interesting stats coming out of Italy where something like 43% of the people were asymmetrical but carry same viral load

 

[BloodySwan]

In the US fatality for COVID-19 is 5%. They estimate 70% of the population would catch it without any intervention. That would result in 910,000 deaths in Australia. That's not including people who died because they couldn't get care while the hospitals would be overcrowded.

People claiming these measures are too extreme have NFI

 

[Ticky009]

By the way, this One way to assist and make sure $$ goes to where it should

 

[Olian]

Govt: We promise not to abuse any tracking app for Covid...
Govt: Yes, a member of the Prime Ministers staff illegally distributed Malcolm Turnbull's book.

Cannot be trusted with something as simple as a book why the fu** would I trust them with anything else?

Not everyone will agree with installing and using the contact tracing app. In all consciousness can you justify being glad that health workers glove up & deal with the sick & at the same time when you asked to help the effort and say no to sharing info?

 

[Ticky009]

Not everyone will agree with installing and using the contact tracing app. In all consciousness can you justify being glad that health workers glove up & deal with the sick & at the same time when you asked to help the effort and say no to sharing info?

Yes. Because the method & information gathered is actually useless. I've already provided tech feedback on this

 

[swansfan51]

Sure. Every life is precious, I will not justify it by $$&&$

So if there was a cancer treatment that prolonged life at a cost of $10 million per patient year, you would support it?

The government makes these decisions all the time.

 

[The King!]

I’d download the app the more I consider it

I think the government can track me anyway and if it gets things moving then stuff it

 

[The King!]

It’s lives above money (provided I have enough money or the government give me money then I’ll take the moral stand)

 

[Angry Red Bull]

So if there was a cancer treatment that prolonged life at a cost of $10 million per patient year, you would support it?

The government makes these decisions all the time.

It cost $300B pumped into economy which has about a 80-90% capture so the approach and measures including cost PPE Ventilators tracking etc is about $12k per person app NOT $10M as you quote to create a sensationalistic headline.......and I’m being generous.

And for the record the death rate in USA isn’t 5% at all. Deaths 40,555/ cases 763836 doesn’t cut it because there remains 652269 active cases who may progress to death 13566 of whom are serious at present with many more likely to progress to serious which on pattern happens at day 14. That means about 392k haven’t yet reached day 14 yet. If you do the math you can work out that of those currently diagnosed a further 19K will be added to serious. Assume 33% die that means the correct death rate in USA is 11k + 40k/ 652k = 7.8% death. Thats an imprecise figure too but as close as can determine without a full statistical analysis which I’m not going to do

There is a point and that is if we allow the virus to go bezerk here it will kill about 7.8% as our health response collapses. You want to thread the needle to see how close we go before it cuts loose? I don’t. Already there is ample evidence of what it can do - a wedding down south coast caused 35 cases. One worker at Penrith aged care caused 30 cases in a week. Honestly people it’s not worth the risk and does save lives because our rate is 1% not 8%

 

[The King!]

It cost $300B pumped into economy which has about a 80-90% capture so the approach and measures including cost PPE Ventilators tracking etc is about $25 per person app NOT $10M as you quote to create a sensationalistic headline.......and I’m being generous.

And for the record the death rate in USA isn’t 5% at all. Deaths 40,555/ cases 763836 doesn’t cut it because there remains 652269 active cases who may progress to death 13566 of whom are serious at present with many more likely to progress to serious which on pattern happens at day 14. That means about 392k haven’t yet reached day 14 yet. If you do the math you can work out that of those currently diagnosed a further 19K will be added to serious. Assume 33% die that means the correct death rate in USA is 11k + 40k/ 652k = 7.8% death. Thats an imprecise figure too but as close as can determine without a full statistical analysis which I’m not going to do

There is a point and that is if we allow the virus to go bezerk here it will kill about 7.8% as our health response collapses. You want to thread the needle to see how close we go before it cuts loose? I don’t. Already there is ample evidence of what it can do - a wedding down south coast caused 35 cases. One worker at Penrith aged care caused 30 cases in a week. Honestly people it’s not worth the risk and does save lives because our rate is 1% not 8%

Don’t think anyone disagrees

but at a point in time the government will have more choices to make

I agree that time isn’t here yet

I didn’t realise how popular Bunnings was, I’ve been like twice in my life

 

[The King!]

the AFL site has all the final story docs online
If you haven’t watched them yet I highly recommend

 

[swansfan51]

It cost $300B pumped into economy which has about a 80-90% capture so the approach and measures including cost PPE Ventilators tracking etc is about $25 per person app NOT $10M as you quote to create a sensationalistic headline.......and I’m being generous.

And for the record the death rate in USA isn’t 5% at all. Deaths 40,555/ cases 763836 doesn’t cut it because there remains 652269 active cases who may progress to death 13566 of whom are serious at present with many more likely to progress to serious which on pattern happens at day 14. That means about 392k haven’t yet reached day 14 yet. If you do the math you can work out that of those currently diagnosed a further 19K will be added to serious. Assume 33% die that means the correct death rate in USA is 11k + 40k/ 652k = 7.8% death. Thats an imprecise figure too but as close as can determine without a full statistical analysis which I’m not going to do

There is a point and that is if we allow the virus to go bezerk here it will kill about 7.8% as our health response collapses. You want to thread the needle to see how close we go before it cuts loose? I don’t. Already there is ample evidence of what it can do - a wedding down south coast caused 35 cases. One worker at Penrith aged care caused 30 cases in a week. Honestly people it’s not worth the risk and does save lives because our rate is 1% not 8%

I never said the stimulus was $10/m per person, I was responding to someone who said lives are saved at any cost - they are not.

I've actually addressed the numbers for COVID stimulus in a bit more detail on another thread.

 

[Wayne Swan]

Don’t think anyone disagrees

but at a point in time the government will have more choices to make

I agree that time isn’t here yet

I didn’t realise how popular Bunnings was, I’ve been like twice in my life

You need to get out more! I'll give you a tip, wear work boots, work shorts and a hi-viz shirt and you can shop without all those people for an hour from 6.30am which is tradies hour.

 

[The King!]

Usa might recover quickly by simply

You need to get out more! I'll give you a tip, wear work boots, work shorts and a hi-viz shirt and you can shop without all those people for an hour from 6.30am which is tradies hour.

I’m the least handy person ever

and gardening was ruined when I was about 14

dug up the backyard for the old man in summer 35 degrees out over 2 days then he just filled it iN

told him to get ****ed and never helped him again

 

[Ticky009]

Usa might recover quickly by simply


I’m the least handy person ever

and gardening was ruined when I was about 14

dug up the backyard for the old man in summer 35 degrees out over 2 days then he just filled it iN

told him to get f’ed and never helped him again

I love those old childhood traumas that linger. It's like how I can never eat tuna out of a can due to Ye olde tuna casserole

 

[sataris]

I love those old childhood traumas that linger. It's like how I can never eat tuna out of a can due to Ye olde tuna casserole

You're not supposed to put the can in the casserole.

 

[sataris]

I’d download the app the more I consider it

I think the government can track me anyway and if it gets things moving then stuff it

People willingly moving towards 1984 always surprise me.

 

[The King!]

People willingly moving towards 1984 always surprise me.

People jumping out from behind walls surprise me

 

[Ticky009]

Game show suggestions for the housebound.
Baby gets to choose between a box full of toys from Kmart or a cheque for a million $

Camera on parents as they shriek hysterically from sound proof room as they watch toddler

 

[Tedeski]

We are in a very good position compared to what we could have been with further delays to putting these measure in place. We would have been in a better place still had we closed the borders a week earlier.

If it's OK with some of you guys, I'm happy to take the advice of experts in the know on these matters. Those same people that have advised our politicians on things thus far, which is the reason we are in a position today to loosen some of the restriction earlier than had we not put them in place.

This stuff is beyond us actually. Just be thankful that we have only lost so few people folks.