Davis in finals - the raw stats

[Quicky]

I got interested in the Leon Davis chokes in finals debate so decided to go back in history and look at the stats. The truth of these things tend to get lost in myth and I was interested to see if this was in fact the case.

Here are the raw stats:

2002 (3rd year at Collingwood)

Qualifying final - 7k, 1h, 8d, 4m, 3g, 2t.
Prelim final - 5k, 1h, 6d, 1g, 1b, 0t.
Grand final - 0 zilch in all o)

2003

Prelim final - 5k, 1h, 6d, 3m, 3g, 1t
Grand final - 6k, 4h, 10d, 1g, 1b, 1t

2007

Second elimination final - 13k, 1h, 14d, 2m, 1g, 1b, 5t
Second semi-final - 12k, 6h, 18d, 3m, 10t
Preliminary final - 9k, 2h, 11d, 3m, 1g, 1b, 2t

2008

First elimination final - 16k, 4h, 20d, 6m, 1g, 1b, 4t
Semi final - 10k, 7h, 17d, 1m, 2b, 1t

2009

First qualifying final - 8k, 7h, 15d, 3m, 1g, 1b,
First semi final - 10d, 2h, 12d, 6m, 1b, 4t
Second prelim final - 7k, 6h, 13d, 2m, 8t

I'd say the last 3 years are probably the most relevant.

In that time (2007-9) he averages: 15d, 0.5 goals, 4.25t

If anyone wants to provide more detailed averages from those stats go for it - I can't be buggered now.

It's funny but anyway you look at it, it isn't really pretty reading. Last years finals was particularly poor given his midfield time, although it is said he was carrying an injury which limited his output. As a positive I guess his 2007 and 2008 finals series were pretty good from a player in a small forward role. He has also had some big games tackle wise at an average of 4 which isn't bad. This is probably what the coaching staff are looking at. But to me that finals output is still a worry.

For interest his 2010 averages reads: 9k, 4h, 13d, 3m, 1.4g, 1,4b, 4t,

 

[Old Spice]

It's not terrific and our man Timmy might have been onto something re Medders and leon possibly not making it in the finals. I suspect Leon will, but it's no fait accompli. If Cafe kicks three and Sidehole / Beams / Blair play well, and leon has an average game in the twos, who knows.

 

[Palmer Stoat]

Leon has been, overall, a poor finals performer. However, those stats need to be put in their proper context.

In the early finals he was a young small forward -- he was never gonna return massive stats playing that role. And on the plus side, he does have two three-goal returns from his first five finals. Not exactly scintillating, but not uniformly disastrous either.

Other point I'd make is that his best final, the Elimination Final v Adelaide, he went off early in the second half IIRC. He was on target for an impressive return, stats-wise, in that match.

Still a disappointing return from a player of his ability.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Darren Jarman was known as a poor finals player until he got to Adelaide late in his career. Lets hope Leon ignites late in his.

All im saying is the past is the past, he is needed and we need to have faith him to deliver when we need him to. Im sure no one more then Leon wants to shake that tag off his back

 

[knightwheelrqr]

Leon's stats aren't great. I'm not one to judge a player solely on their finals output, though if a player does have a great history I do look upon that very favourably (Thomas and Sidebottom are two who string to mind immediately as those who have lifted their games to new levels in these crunch games on several occasions).

Davis though regardless of these stats I get the feeling is effectively our "23rd man" right now come finals time with Blair + Goldsack the guys to have now established themselves as worthy of a position in our 22 even with our forwardline being relatively less known than our midfield and defence.

 

[Katherine Amateurs]

Yeah, it is disappointing. I agree that he was young in the first ones, my a perfect doughnuts in a grand final is not good enough.

With so many youngsters ready to play, he needed to step up this year and be a leader. He didn't, but players like Johnson, L Brown, Ball and Jolly have.

so unfortunately for Medhurst, Lockyer, Fraser and Davis, you are not going to get compassion games.

 

[Quicky]

Leon has been, overall, a poor finals performer. However, those stats need to be put in their proper context.

In the early finals he was a young small forward -- he was never gonna return massive stats playing that role. And on the plus side, he does have two three-goal returns from his first five finals. Not exactly scintillating, but not uniformly disastrous either.

Other point I'd make is that his best final, the Elimination Final v Adelaide, he went off early in the second half IIRC. He was on target for an impressive return, stats-wise, in that match.

Still a disappointing return from a player of his ability.

Cheers for that. I for the most part just added the raw stats. Context definitely counts. I guess the issue is that sometimes context is used as an excuse instead of reason. The 2007-9 stats are the most relevant for the reasons you stated which is why I put up the averages for those years. I think Davis does have some reasons for poor performances but even considering this as a whole his performances have been underwhelming. I still think he is a good chance to make the 22 come finals purely for his defensive pressure, but i'm dubious he'll pull out vote getting type performance together based on his finals history and form so far this year. I think if he were to be dropped the selection committee would have justification.

 

[Quicky]

I still think he is a good chance to make the 22 come finals purely for his defensive pressure, but i'm dubious he'll pull out vote getting type performance together based on his finals history and form so far this year. I think if he were to be dropped the selection committee would have justification.

And considering this as well as his averages this season and in the finals averages (07-9) does this tip the selection decision in Rusty, Blairs or Medhursts favour? Rusty and Blair have both been good for around 16-17 touches when played forward. Medhurst offers similar defensive pressure but a better forward target. I think from a structural point of view that Davis has the legspeed and tackling pressure to really harry and corral players in our 50. This could be his saving grace. I think he'd be cactus if Dick was fit.

 

[Thommo 42]

2009 finals he was poor, 2002 GF he was poor, but very good in the QF and PF.

Outside that, I think his output has generally been on a par with his output for that particular season and even in 2009, his form had dropped a month before the finals started.

The best context for any of those stats is to compare to his season stats for the same years finals stats. The only major discrepancy will be 2009 imo.

 

[MarkT2]

Leon has a poor finals record and has had a poor year. No way I'd play him this September. 12 months ago I'd have said we need to gamble to win it so we should play him. While it would have been a risk, without his pace and finishing class we would have been well and truely short on ability to win the flag. since then Wellingham has arrived and that is on the back of a good final v Adelaide last year. At the same time Beams and Sidebottom are better and stronger and along with Ball these players have finally replaced the likes of O'Bree & Lockyer that just aren't premiership players IMO.

At his best he'd be an asset but he has ever shown his best in fianls and has been a long way from it this year anyway. So all in all we don't need him to win it and he is far too flakey to keep even a kid like Blair out.

Give me the desperation of Blair over the risk of Davis right now. If we are going to punt then punt on Medhurst. He has less strikes and while not as quick is as capable as Leon to kick 4 goals.

 

[Keele]

Leon has a poor finals record and has had a poor year. No way I'd play him this September. 12 months ago I'd have said we need to gamble to win it so we should play him. While it would have been a risk, without his pace and finishing class we would have been well and truely short on ability to win the flag. since then Wellingham has arrived and that is on the back of a good final v Adelaide last year. At the same time Beams and Sidebottom are better and stronger and along with Ball these players have finally replaced the likes of O'Bree & Lockyer that just aren't premiership players IMO.

At his best he'd be an asset but he has ever shown his best in fianls and has been a long way from it this year anyway. So all in all we don't need him to win it and he is far too flakey to keep even a kid like Blair out.

Give me the desperation of Blair over the risk of Davis right now. If we are going to punt then punt on Medhurst. He has less strikes and while not as quick is as capable as Leon to kick 4 goals.

You mention Leon has had a poor year... Medhursts season has been far worse.

 

[DIDAIC0S]

And considering this as well as his averages this season and in the finals averages (07-9) does this tip the selection decision in Rusty, Blairs or Medhursts favour? Rusty and Blair have both been good for around 16-17 touches when played forward. Medhurst offers similar defensive pressure but a better forward target. I think from a structural point of view that Davis has the legspeed and tackling pressure to really harry and corral players in our 50. This could be his saving grace. I think he'd be cactus if Dick was fit.

I agree 100%

Dick is also good on both sids of the body, and never tries to stab or kick the leaving $#!@ out of the ball when having a shot on goal.

 

[PieLebo87]

I love Leon, but if he hasn't shown it in 17 games this season, he ain't gonna show it in finals. Best to keep him in the VFL until he starts providing a couple massive BOGs.

 

[Lockyer24]

The positive for Leon is that if he has a blistering month of September 2010, it will erase all 10 years of mediocrity and it's doubtful anyone will mention it again.

 

[MarkT2]

You mention Leon has had a poor year... Medhursts season has been far worse.

That is true but he doesn't have Leon's history of finals failure. Not sure Leon's game and mental strength are suited to finals. As I said, I'd prefer the Medhurst punt over the Davis punt but that dosn't mean I want to punt. Right now Blair should play. If Medhust hit his straps that may change but it's a big if.

 

[The Zone]

There's no doubt about the question mark over Leon in finals. Early in his career I blamed the way MM handled him (it might even explain his subsequent finals form - damaged confidence).

My current issue with Leon (besides patchy form and returns) is the number of frees he gives away in the F50. I reckon his tackle count is marred/countered by frees against.

I think he stands off when the ball is live but then goes in too hard when the opposition has taken the initiative to attack the ball. He has given away too many frees this way by hitting the guy with his head over the ball.

How many frees against, especially from taking the opposition high in the F50? I have a sneaking suspicion that stat wouldn't help his cause.