Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Raises an interesting question, would people rather finish 7th/8th, lose week 1 of finals, get Nicks extended on the back of finals, or miss finals again and sack him?

There's a button pressing meme that leaps to mind

 

[GROTTO]

Seems about right.

Which is unfortunate, we are going to need to win a game where we are underdogs to make the 8.

Might even come down to needing to beat the Pies at AO in R23.

On the positive side, we get a new coach. No way Nicks survives.

 

[Moonwatcher]

If we finish 9th or 10th this year and make the finals next year with our bottom 3 players replaced (like we did this year bringing in Peatling, Cumming and ANB) then I am happy.

 

[Sally22]

We are good enough to sneak into 6th-8th. Forward line is fine but a bit reliant on talls with Rash out and Rankine up the ground. Midfield should be fine, just we were cooked off 5 day break. We took care of GC's AFL assisted midfield over there, have confidence in this group. Ruck is shambolic and defence is not far off. I remember us trying to switch the play last season and we didnt have the foot skills to do it consistently, it's a major issue to not have anyone who we can rely on to move the ball out of D50 safely (well we do, he's just on the Wing).We also like to drop talls for some reason, Worrell is a 3rd tall not a KPD. I'd consider Dawson playing mid/def but liecnce to move high up the ground, bit like how Sinclair/NWM are used at the Saints.

If you look at what Dimma did with the Suns last year, he pumped games into the kids constantly. He also rotated a stack of players at half back and quickly found out none of them were good, so he went for Rioli and Noble. Nicks doesn't have a good read on this list and has predertmined bias towards some players, especially senior guys, so is very close minded when it comes to selection and positional moves.

Around start rebuild definitely wonder if we could have got back bit higher draft picks in return for the players we traded out. But whatever, we got games played into some kids. Just the wrong ones. Too slow making the tough calls. McHenry just getting delisted is laughable. Is that all on Nick's or some club in that (same for senior guys)? Jones close untradeable now too (what a draft year that was). No amount great development was going help those two.

Fagan was still turning over around 10 players a year three or four years into Lions rebuild and amongst the clubs high draft picks his famous quote along lines of "one Afl game played worth 20 state league games". Think we went chasing up ladder asap at detriment rebuild. I only half understand the destination club bit.

Least bit question on list key back, half back, ruck, elite midfield/er, small fwd. Still got trade in for third tall forward (depth) into future, or who is it, Burgess or 18yo Welsh.

Least strong 6, around 8, maybe closer to 10 teams with better 22 than crows. You can throw system in but i dont think make heap difference here. We might make finals now a couple teams are maybe falling over for the year (still think Blues can get on a run), still be making up numbers in finals with not a Hawk, Freo, Suns, North barrel of potential

 

[kirky]

If we finish 9th we will have risen 6 places. Surely that's a pass?

Not at all given where we were at the end of 2023.

 

[Sally22]

6th year and no finals he has to go.

He would have made finals '23 but for a bit luck. Where that sit? Making finals as make or break, be all and end all is too black and white for me. This could be a problem with the club, aims for finals not flags. Aims to please. Club could potentially end up in and out finals, stuck in mediocrity.

We could been building harder for flag contention, flag potential, not finals. At start of full rebuild we could have given club 6 years (enough?) and said do what you want, as long as genuine top 4, flag contending list after that. Can't see it as it stands. Ideally from full rebuild like to see bit of a bang, from towards bottom ladder to up towards top the ladder (Lions, Hawks). Coming from full rebuild is fair list advantage over those who don't rebuild, done half good.

Giving away pick 25 in alleged super draft for 29yo small fwd to go all in chase making up numbers in finals is dubious, but it hasn't been an isolated short term decision made by the club in the last few years. Plenty examples.

Amomgst some the poor drafting years gone by who is responsible here and by how much?

 

[Scorpus]

Raises an interesting question, would people rather finish 7th/8th, lose week 1 of finals, get Nicks extended on the back of finals, or miss finals again and sack him?

The pass mark for me in terms of retaining Nicks is making a prelim final.

So either top 4 with 1 finals win or 5-8 with 2 finals wins.

He's not good enough to bother retaining if we just make finals on the back of a good list. Has to prove he can execute against the best when under pressure

 

[pjcrows]

I will be staggered if we win a final under Nicks but as always, hope to be proven wrong.

 

[Scorpus]

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	L
7	25/04/25	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	12

It's good we can't make finals just beating up on bottom sides.

For Nicks to make finals he'll have to prove he can win games we're expected to win and take a few scalps against the better teams. And he might need to do both in the last 5 rounds with the pressure of making finals at the forefront.

Nicks has been very poor dealing with pressure or expectations. No point making finals or retaining him if he can't do better in those situations

 

[GROTTO]

I will be staggered if we win a final under Nicks but as always, hope to be proven wrong.

Im going to be staggered if we make the 8 under Nicks. I just dont see it happening with the draw.

 

[Burtonsgottago]

We’ll make finals. The boys were gassed in the 2nd half after playing in the heat 5 days earlier. They looked electric in the first half. Poor scheduling and poor decision making has us at 3-2. We’ll be ok.

 

[cleanhands]

We’ll make finals. The boys were gassed in the 2nd half after playing in the heat 5 days earlier. They looked electric in the first half. Poor scheduling and poor decision making has us at 3-2. We’ll be ok.

Even a bad coach can get this talent to the 8

 

[1970crow]

Seems about right.

Really? I reckon we're 2 wins ahead of that, but still miss out.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Not at all given where we were at the end of 2023.

I think 2024 is more reflective of our list. We did nail the 2024 trade/draft though.

 

[GROTTO]

We are not beating the Giants next week and then we have Freo away.

We could be off the back of a 4 game losing streak when we face the Blues.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

We are not beating the Giants next week and then we have Freo away.

We could be off the back of a 4 game losing streak when we face the Blues.

Yep it's a tough little run

It's why I guess we didn't rest Tex or rotate after Gold Coast. Desperate to get a win so that we could absorb a couple of losses.

 

[40porpoise]

Call me pessimistic but I think we might still miss the 8. I want to think we have genuinely improved but the last 20 years has taught me never to put faith in this club because they'll ultimately let you down.

Reckon the list is good enough, still question marks on Nicks

 

[WetCrow1991]

If we finish 9th or 10th this year and make the finals next year with our bottom 3 players replaced (like we did this year bringing in Peatling, Cumming and ANB) then I am happy.

To the surpirse of absolutelty no one.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

We are not beating the Giants next week and then we have Freo away.

We could be off the back of a 4 game losing streak when we face the Blues.

It's a very early season defining game against the Giants.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Yep it's a tough little run

It's why I guess we didn't rest Tex or rotate after Gold Coast. Desperate to get a win so that we could absorb a couple of losses.

Didn’t that work out a treat trying to play the short term game, rather than the long game with smart player management...

 

[VKCrow]

if we make finals I’d hope the team is in a position mentally and tactically to not just make up the numbers.

 

[relapse]

I'm saying no

Looking ahead we could easily lose 8 out of our next 9 games.

GWS home - 50/50 at best
Free away - likely loss
Carlton home - 60/40
Port away - 50/50
Collingwood away - likely loss
WCE - win
Sydney away - likely loss
Brisbane home - 50/50
Hawthorn away - likely loss

 

[Doctor B]

Making finals requires us to start beating better, finals contending teams

Our last 12 wins have taken 28 games

North, Essendon, St Kilda, Dogs, Essendon, St Kilda, GWS, West Coast, Port Powers, North, Carlton, West Coast.

 

[Samcro24]

I'm saying no

Looking ahead we could easily lose 8 out of our next 9 games.

GWS home - 50/50 at best
Free away - likely loss
Carlton home - 60/40
Port away - 50/50
Collingwood away - likely loss
WCE - win
Sydney away - likely loss
Brisbane home - 50/50
Hawthorn away - likely loss

60/40 Carlton?
Are you on crack?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Wins - 9th, 13th & 15th
Losses - 2nd & 6th

We are going to need to beat top 8 teams to make the finals & that starts this week if we are serious.