Draft mechanisms under review

[RUNVS]

You're grouping clubs into two broad groups and looking at the results of grand finals as your only data point and assuming they're the product of bias.

If you look at it more holistically, non Vic clubs have been very represented up the top of the ladder and haven't been overrepresented down the bottom of the ladder. And it's been Vic clubs most inclined to find themselves stuck in the bottom half for lengthy periods.

We've had 3 great teams from Vic - Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond win a heap of flags skewing the grand final results towards Vic. Prior to that we had a great team from QLD doing the same, with a NSW, WA, and SA team regularly up there getting close throughout the whole time.

15 of the last 17 Grand Final winners have been Victorian.

 

[Mudhoney]

15 of the last 17 Grand Final winners have been Victorian.

That’s cos victorians are *en awesome!

 

[Crankyhawk]

• Ridiculous that you get matching points for picks that were never going to be used. If only 50 - 60 players are getting drafted then there should be no value on points after that.
• make F/S discount match games played at that club. 100 games = 10% discount, up to 30% for 300 games plus.
• reduce FA compensation. The current system incentivises bottom clubs to move on mid range players. This actually makes them weaker the next season, which keeps them at the bottom for longer. First round should only be for champions. Someone like McKay should be third round compensation. Don’t tie the pick to ladder position.
• Make NGAs available from the second round, but reduce discount to 10%. So clubs can keep the local lads if they really want them.
• 18 year old only available in the first two rounds.

Change fa compensation to be based on the contract offered by the club losing the player, not what the poaching club is offering (this helps also if a player moves for success and a pay cut)

 

[sr36]

15 of the last 17 Grand Final winners have been Victorian.

That's what Im saying. If you look only at grand final results it looks dodgy. If you look at it more holistically it doesn't. Top half of the ladder. Bottom half of the ladder. Top 4 . Bottom 4. Length of time spent in different sections. Etc. If multiple indicators were pointing in vic direction there'd probably be an issue. But it is only grand final results. Assumptions that those GF results are the product of a biased system is statistically naïve. You need multiple data oiints to reduce the likelihood of a result being just chance.

 

[RUNVS]

That's what Im saying. If you look only at grand final results it looks dodgy. If you look at it more holistically it doesn't. Top half of the ladder. Bottom half of the ladder. Top 4 . Bottom 4. Length of time spent in different sections. Etc. If multiple indicators were pointing in vic direction there'd probably be an issue. But it is only grand final results. Assumptions that those GF results are the product of a biased system is statistically naïve. You need multiple data oiints to reduce the likelihood of a result being just chance.

You mentioned Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond taking up a good portion of those Grand Final wins but it is also important to note why those teams were able to maintain that high level for so long.

Each one of them though benefitted from systems within the AFL. Free Agency benefitted Hawthorn and Richmond a lot, helping them bring in players for free, good quality players too.

Then there was being able to bring in really good players for cheap because certain players are willing to move clubs at a discount in order to get a premiership, but they are only willing to move from one Victorian club to another, or move from a non-Victorian club back home to Victoria.

Geelong benefits too as free agency has opened up trading, allowing Geelong to bring in a lot more former Geelong Falcon's players, them often getting these players for unders.

 

[go_the_dockers]

You're grouping clubs into two broad groups and looking at the results of grand finals as your only data point and assuming they're the product of bias.

If you look at it more holistically, non Vic clubs have been very represented up the top of the ladder and haven't been overrepresented down the bottom of the ladder. And it's been Vic clubs most inclined to find themselves stuck in the bottom half for lengthy periods.

We've had 3 great teams from Vic - Hawthorn, Geelong and Richmond win a heap of flags skewing the grand final results towards Vic. Prior to that we had a great team from QLD doing the same, with a NSW, WA, and SA team regularly up there getting close throughout the whole time.

And then cola was removed.

Sa were mostly foundation squads. The eagles were the only non vic team to win following the current rules.

When all the great sides are Victorian it shows an advantage to one group of teams.

Agree vic clubs tend to end up at top or bottom due to lack of true home ground advantage.

No one celebrates making a final or making a grand final. Winning is all that matters.

 

[go_the_dockers]

You mentioned Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond taking up a good portion of those Grand Final wins but it is also important to note why those teams were able to maintain that high level for so long.

Each one of them though benefitted from systems within the AFL. Free Agency benefitted Hawthorn and Richmond a lot, helping them bring in players for free, good quality players too.

Then there was being able to bring in really good players for cheap because certain players are willing to move clubs at a discount in order to get a premiership, but they are only willing to move from one Victorian club to another, or move from a non-Victorian club back home to Victoria.

Geelong benefits too as free agency has opened up trading, allowing Geelong to bring in a lot more former Geelong Falcon's players, them often getting these players for unders.

The ability of vic clubs to top up is a massive advantage.

Not just free agency, but to trade in players to fill holes in your list.

Also, they don't need to worry much about players returning home.

 

[Crankyhawk]

You mentioned Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond taking up a good portion of those Grand Final wins but it is also important to note why those teams were able to maintain that high level for so long.

Each one of them though benefitted from systems within the AFL. Free Agency benefitted Hawthorn and Richmond a lot, helping them bring in players for free, good quality players too.

Then there was being able to bring in really good players for cheap because certain players are willing to move clubs at a discount in order to get a premiership, but they are only willing to move from one Victorian club to another, or move from a non-Victorian club back home to Victoria.

Geelong benefits too as free agency has opened up trading, allowing Geelong to bring in a lot more former Geelong Falcon's players, them often getting these players for unders.

Free agency also cost us buddy. We are not free agency beneficiaries from 2013-15; we got Frawley as the only in.

 

[RUNVS]

Free agency also cost us buddy. We are not free agency beneficiaries from 2013-15; we got Frawley as the only in.

Yes, but do you think Hawthorn win the three flags in a row without Lake and Frawley?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Yes, but do you think Hawthorn win the three flags in a row without Lake and Frawley?

Lake was a trade.
With buddy in the team, I think we still are a reasonable chance of winning 2014 and 15

 

[RUNVS]

Lake was a trade.
With buddy in the team, I think we still are a reasonable chance of winning 2014 and 15

Yes he was a trade but Lake came to Hawthorn for a premiership, meaning he took a pay cut to be there.

Had it been lets say Fremantle who were in Hawthorn's position they likely would not have been able to convince Lake to go to another state.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Yes he was a trade but Lake came to Hawthorn for a premiership, meaning he took a pay cut to be there.

Had it been lets say Fremantle who were in Hawthorn's position they likely would not have been able to convince Lake to go to another state.

That still occurs if free agency wasn’t a thing (my initial response was around hawks benefiting from free agency- we have not - do we have other benefits being a vic club - yes though ours are not as pronounced as say Geelong)

 

[RUNVS]

That still occurs if free agency wasn’t a thing (my initial response was around hawks benefiting from free agency- we have not - do we have other benefits being a vic club - yes though ours are not as pronounced as say Geelong)

I agree Geelong has a bigger benefit as players like Hawkins and Dangerfield have been paid unders for years and they get a lot of Geelong Falcon's players returning to Geelong.

But I think the reason all of Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond were able to win those three premierships instead of just one or two is because they were able to top up far more easily than non-Victorian clubs can, either with trades or free agency.

There is a reason Lynch picked Richmond, and it was because they were from Victoria and they were a team likely to win a premiership.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

Yes, but do you think Hawthorn win the three flags in a row without Lake and Frawley?

I personally think yes, but it's one of those hypothetical questions can actually possibly answer with any degree of confidence

 

[Swanssince91]

I like that when an interstate club recruits a player it's liked they've robbed a bank.
When a Victorian club recruits a player its just the norm

 

[sr36]

You mentioned Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond taking up a good portion of those Grand Final wins but it is also important to note why those teams were able to maintain that high level for so long.

Each one of them though benefitted from systems within the AFL. Free Agency benefitted Hawthorn and Richmond a lot, helping them bring in players for free, good quality players too.

Then there was being able to bring in really good players for cheap because certain players are willing to move clubs at a discount in order to get a premiership, but they are only willing to move from one Victorian club to another, or move from a non-Victorian club back home to Victoria.

Geelong benefits too as free agency has opened up trading, allowing Geelong to bring in a lot more former Geelong Falcon's players, them often getting these players for unders.

If you didn't have the Vic m/non-Vic goggles on, I think you'd view it differently.

The Cats 2007-11 flags are attributed to FS advantage, but it's ignored that Scarlett and Ablett weren't highly rated juniors. They weren't like Daicos and Heeney. Cats paid what they would have gone for in the draft. Scarlet might not even have been drafted without the draft concessions. Hawkins only real contribution to those flags was a ripping GF in 2011.Meanwhile they lost arguably the second best player of his generation in the middle of that run to an AFL allowance designed to give a Northern team a boost. They were flags built from great drafting.

Hawks flags weren't about Victoria having an advantage over interstate teams. Their significant recruits were from lowly Vic clubs and the non-go home Burgoyne. Meanwhile they lost the best player of his generation essentially to an allowance designed to give a Northern club a boost.

Tiges flags are a testimony to equalisation. A 30 year laughing stock who accumulated a handful of stars through the draft and then were incredibly well coached - tactically years ahead of the comp.

Dogs and Dees flags once again equalisation working through the draft. May is from the NT. Libba wasn't a highly rated junior.

No doubt the last two flags have been massively impacted by recruiting advantages. The Cats ability to exploit their unique location when recruiting. A circumstance not shared by any other Vic clubs, who do actually pay top dollar to recruit as they're competing with 9 other clubs. And the Pies ridiculous luck with F/S. But I'll be shocked if there aren't some flags in the next decade assisted by academies or bloke's desire to get away from the Melbourne media bubble.

For the next 5 or so years Freo and Port will continue to be at a bit of a disadvantage due to not having as good access to FS. Northern clubs with their academies - nah.

 

[Caligo]

If you didn't have the Vic m/non-Vic goggles on, I think you'd view it differently.

The Cats 2007-11 flags are attributed to FS advantage, but it's ignored that Scarlett and Ablett weren't highly rated juniors. They weren't like Daicos and Heeney. Cats paid what they would have gone for in the draft. Scarlet might not even have been drafted without the draft concessions. Hawkins only real contribution to those flags was a ripping GF in 2011.Meanwhile they lost arguably the second best player of his generation in the middle of that run to an AFL allowance designed to give a Northern team a boost. They were flags built from great drafting.

Hawks flags weren't about Victoria having an advantage over interstate teams. Their significant recruits were from lowly Vic clubs and the non-go home Burgoyne. Meanwhile they lost the best player of his generation essentially to an allowance designed to give a Northern club a boost.

Tiges flags are a testimony to equalisation. A 30 year laughing stock who accumulated a handful of stars through the draft and then were incredibly well coached - tactically years ahead of the comp.

Dogs and Dees flags once again equalisation working through the draft. May is from the NT. Libba wasn't a highly rated junior.

No doubt the last two flags have been massively impacted by recruiting advantages. The Cats ability to exploit their unique location when recruiting. A circumstance not shared by any other Vic clubs, who do actually pay top dollar to recruit as they're competing with 9 other clubs. And the Pies ridiculous luck with F/S. But I'll be shocked if there aren't some flags in the next decade assisted by academies or bloke's desire to get away from the Melbourne media bubble.

For the next 5 or so years Freo and Port will continue to be at a bit of a disadvantage due to not having as good access to FS. Northern clubs with their academies - nah.

Hawkins was a consensus pick 1, Nathan Ablett was the most talented key forward in his year (with questions about his commitment) and GAJ was seriously talented too. Absolutely none of them would have been drafted anywhere near the late 3rds Geelong paid for them.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

I like that when an interstate club recruits a player it's liked they've robbed a bank.
When a Victorian club recruits a player its just the norm

The only 2 noticeable events of this happening in the last 5 years was Jordan Dawson to the Crows (because Adelaide rightfully imo played the PSD card into forcing the Swans to trade him for unders) which upset some folks, and JH-F to Port, cause it was a number 1 draft pick wanting out after only one year

Most media pundits and neutral fans (aside from Dogs fans) had no issue or problem with Josh Dunkley joining Brisbane.

 

[RUNVS]

The only 2 noticeable events of this happening in the last 5 years was Jordan Dawson to the Crows (because Adelaide rightfully imo played the PSD card into forcing the Swans to trade him for unders) which upset some folks, and JH-F to Port, cause it was a number 1 draft pick wanting out after only one year

Most media pundits and neutral fans (aside from Dogs fans) had no issue or problem with Josh Dunkley joining Brisbane.

I am very worried next season about McDonald as there is nothing stopping West Coast from playing the PSD card if they wanted to go after him.

Would suck a lot to lose McDonald but I will be furious if we lose him for well below what he is worth.

 

[Swanssince91]

The only 2 noticeable events of this happening in the last 5 years was Jordan Dawson to the Crows (because Adelaide rightfully imo played the PSD card into forcing the Swans to trade him for unders) which upset some folks, and JH-F to Port, cause it was a number 1 draft pick wanting out after only one year

Most media pundits and neutral fans (aside from Dogs fans) had no issue or problem with Josh Dunkley joining Brisbane.

Maybe it's just a swans thing

 

[Elmer_Judd]

I am very worried next season about McDonald as there is nothing stopping West Coast from playing the PSD card if they wanted to go after him.

Would suck a lot to lose McDonald but I will be furious if we lose him for well below what he is worth.

Freo is your biggest threat. The Eagles have Oscar Allen already.

But Freo have stockpiled a lot of picks to at least give The Swans reasonable value/return in a trade.

 

[RUNVS]

Freo is your biggest threat. The Eagles have Oscar Allen already.

But Freo have stockpiled a lot of picks to at least give The Swans reasonable value/return in a trade.

Depends though. If West Coast make him a huge offer and then he nominates the Eagles the Swans are stuffed as even though West Coast have the picks to satisfy the Swans the Swans will have no leverage in negotiations.

This is just one example but it is a problem in the overall system that this sort of thing can happen.

 

[Swanssince91]

Freo is your biggest threat. The Eagles have Oscar Allen already.

But Freo have stockpiled a lot of picks to at least give The Swans reasonable value/return in a trade.

Not a huge deal, we could end up with 4 to 5 draft picks and have a crack at todd marshall

 

[sr36]

Hawkins was a consensus pick 1, Nathan Ablett was the most talented key forward in his year (with questions about his commitment) and GAJ was seriously talented too. Absolutely none of them would have been drafted anywhere near the late 3rds Geelong paid for them

The current argument is about favourable recruiting conditions for Vic teams helping them win flags. Tomahawk would have been pick 1 but he wasn't a factor in 2007 and 2009 flags. In 2011 he was a fringe player who had a good GF against an injured opponent with a big limp. He did play a massive role in 2022 though.

Nathan Ablett barely played any junior footy at a decent level - he wouldn't have been drafted if he wasn't son of God. Gary probably would have been, but not early.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

The current argument is about favourable recruiting conditions for Vic teams helping them win flags. Tomahawk would have been pick 1 but he wasn't a factor in 2007 and 2009 flags. In 2011 he was a fringe player who had a good GF against an injured opponent with a big limp. He did play a massive role in 2022 though.

Nathan Ablett barely played any junior footy at a decent level - he wouldn't have been drafted if he wasn't son of God. Gary probably would have been, but not early.

Yeah that's the impression I get reading this thread, Vic teams recent dominance in grand finals in the last 20 decades.

I personally think the Father/Son criteria for SA and WA clubs should be lessened to 150 games in those leagues instead of 200, from their perspective, I think it's a rightful beef (about the criteria of F/S selections for WAFL and SANFL gun sons)