List Mgmt. Draft Watch 2015

[Vader]

Inside mids, quality and quantity both fairly catered for. Crouchx2, Sloane, Thompson, Douglas, CEY, Grigg, Lyons, Gore. Wouldn't be against another 1, but that's a reasonably handy list. Hibberd being my preference, unless one of the top 8 somehow falls to us.

Here's the problem...

• Brad Crouch is perpetually injured. Who knows if/when he'll be able to run to a centre bounce without injuring himself.
• Thompson is likely to retire at the end of 2016.
• CEY, Grigg, Lyons are all quantity - not quality.
• Gore is a complete unknown at this stage.

That leaves Sloane, Douglas and Matt Crouch. Sloane & Douglas are both high quality, but neither are primarily inside midfielders. Both are adept at playing that role, but they're not monster clearance winners in the same class as Dangerfield & Thompson. Matt Crouch is primarily an inside midfielder, but he's still a significant step down from what Dangerfield & Thompson provided.

To put this into context, here are the league rankings & averages for clearances in 2015:
7th - Scott Thompson - 7.19 (clearances per game)
8th - Patrick Dangerfield - 7.17
54th - Rory Sloane - 4.33
58th - Richard Douglas - 4.19
60th - Cam Ellis-Yolmen - 4.09
64th - Matt Crouch - 3.94
100+ - Jarryd Lyons - 2.85

The gulf in class, when it comes to clearances, between Thompson/Dangerfield and the rest of our list, is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

Long on quantity... desperately short on quality.

 

[Vader]

All picks are speculative. You rate them on their talent and hope your recruiters know what they are doing.

This is true.. but so is the fact that the strike rates for 1st round midfielders is a lot higher than the strike rate for 1st round KPPs. It's even worse for 1st round ruck selections.

 

[FAITH]

Well we can't pay 25 for him. If we want him, he's gonna have to be worth 13.

dont think he is worth it

 

[FAITH]

Twomey saying it's Milera and Burton

that was my hope would be outstanding result 2 genuine match winners which we lack.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Here's the problem...

• Brad Crouch is perpetually injured. Who knows if/when he'll be able to run to a centre bounce without injuring himself.
• Thompson is likely to retire at the end of 2016.
• CEY, Grigg, Lyons are all quantity - not quality.
• Gore is a complete unknown at this stage.

That leaves Sloane, Douglas and Matt Crouch. Sloane & Douglas are both high quality, but neither are primarily inside midfielders. Both are adept at playing that role, but they're not monster clearance winners in the same class as Dangerfield & Thompson. Matt Crouch is primarily an inside midfielder, but he's still a significant step down from what Dangerfield & Thompson provided.

To put this into context, here are the league rankings & averages for clearances in 2015:
7th - Scott Thompson - 7.19 (clearances per game)
8th - Patrick Dangerfield - 7.17
54th - Rory Sloane - 4.33
58th - Richard Douglas - 4.19
60th - Cam Ellis-Yolmen - 4.09
64th - Matt Crouch - 3.94
100+ - Jarryd Lyons - 2.85

The gulf in class, when it comes to clearances, between Thompson/Dangerfield and the rest of our list, is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

Long on quantity... desperately short on quality.

That can change pretty quick once sloane , b crouch and m crouch are the go to guys

Their % ratio of contested possessions tells me they have the ability to be gun stoppage players, make them the go to players and their numbers can close that gap pretty quickly

Last 2-3 seasons Jacobs hits to Thommo at least 50% of his hits to advantage , that's his plan A ...no reason why those 3 aforementioned can't get similar numbers to Thommo with the same supply

Also happy to be the 4th- 8th contested possession/ clearance team if we are the 1-5th uncontested ball team as the easier ball with efficient transition is more damaging

All you need to do is look at some of the hawthorn and geelong teams stats to see this when they were winning flags

In fact we have clearly beaten Hawks in contested ball stats the last 3x we have played them ( including the semi final demolition) but never looked like beating them

 

[1990crow]

This is true.. but so is the fact that the strike rates for 1st round midfielders is a lot higher than the strike rate for 1st round KPPs. It's even worse for 1st round ruck selections.

I agree we should never draft a ruck in the first round unless they are Natinui. Key defenders that go early generally turn out pretty good though. P.Davis, Talia, Lever, Rance, Hurley, L.Henderson, H.Taylor, B.Reid, Frawley.. strike rate is actually pretty good. Forwards not so much, but they play a harder position. However, if they go first round there's a higher chance of them coming on then if they go second round onward. Its just shows talent is talent. If your recruiters believe they are worthy of going first round then there is a good chance you will get the player you want. If you always wait for the second round you may never get that star key position player. If Collins goes to us at 13 we will all know we are a good chance at getting a very good to star full back.

 

[Pdub]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-11-22/callum-twomeys-2015-phantom-draft

Cal Twomey is clearly taking pointer's from my
AFC phantom draft

 

[hendo8888]

Here's the problem...

• Brad Crouch is perpetually injured. Who knows if/when he'll be able to run to a centre bounce without injuring himself.
• Thompson is likely to retire at the end of 2016.
• CEY, Grigg, Lyons are all quantity - not quality.
• Gore is a complete unknown at this stage.

That leaves Sloane, Douglas and Matt Crouch. Sloane & Douglas are both high quality, but neither are primarily inside midfielders. Both are adept at playing that role, but they're not monster clearance winners in the same class as Dangerfield & Thompson. Matt Crouch is primarily an inside midfielder, but he's still a significant step down from what Dangerfield & Thompson provided.

To put this into context, here are the league rankings & averages for clearances in 2015:
7th - Scott Thompson - 7.19 (clearances per game)
8th - Patrick Dangerfield - 7.17
54th - Rory Sloane - 4.33
58th - Richard Douglas - 4.19
60th - Cam Ellis-Yolmen - 4.09
64th - Matt Crouch - 3.94
100+ - Jarryd Lyons - 2.85

The gulf in class, when it comes to clearances, between Thompson/Dangerfield and the rest of our list, is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

Long on quantity... desperately short on quality.

That's probably fair. And you're right, Dangerfield and Thompson are going to be big losses.
You don't just lose Dangerfield's clearances though, someone else just has a chance at them. There's quite a few that Dangerfield gets that no one else will, but it's not like we just lose 7 clearances.
And I guess I'm just optimistic on the Crouch fronts. Brad fills some of the hole Dangerfield leaves, Matt gets a bigger role, CEY gets a bigger role, Douglas and Sloane attend more centre bounces, Grigg/Lyons/Gore get their opportunity. It becomes more of a sum of parts kind of thing, rather than a Dangerfield and Thompson get it every time kind of thing. Granted, Brad could lose another full year to injury, which would hurt, but my point is that losing Talia and having a full year of Hartigan, Cheney and Lever would hurt just as much. And losing Tex to a full year is almost a catastrophe tbh, we have no cover for him. We have 'if x player gets injured, we have no one to cover for him' in quite a few different areas, not just inside mid.

 

[lunacy]

Could live with that. Not sure we need Burton but we'll see what happens.

Really? We definitely need another marking forward. I know he's not really tal but he marks well above his head. We still need to add to the tall forward stocks in time, but it adds another talented marking forward to our stocks.

I really hope this happens.

Imagine Tex, Jenkins, Burton, Betts, Charlie, Menzel/Milera (Milera probably most capable of playing up the ground out of those).

Lynch would become very handy depth (in time). Or Burton finds a way to become a fwd/mid.

 

[Elite Crow]

 

[Danger in Texas]

Could live with that. Not sure we need Burton but we'll see what happens.

Yeah this. I'm confident Milera will be a superb get - not so confident on Burton though, re: whether we need him together with his increasingly worrying injury risk.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

We're not drafting another tall defender surely?

Dangerfield gone, Thompson on his last legs, doubts over B Crouch's durability.

Surely to goodness we're taking the two best midfielders we can.

Apparently that's the favored direction since the last media release ..........DABM you'll have to stop talking logic

 

[Bicks]

Here's the problem...

• Brad Crouch is perpetually injured. Who knows if/when he'll be able to run to a centre bounce without injuring himself.
• Thompson is likely to retire at the end of 2016.
• CEY, Grigg, Lyons are all quantity - not quality.
• Gore is a complete unknown at this stage.

That leaves Sloane, Douglas and Matt Crouch. Sloane & Douglas are both high quality, but neither are primarily inside midfielders. Both are adept at playing that role, but they're not monster clearance winners in the same class as Dangerfield & Thompson. Matt Crouch is primarily an inside midfielder, but he's still a significant step down from what Dangerfield & Thompson provided.

To put this into context, here are the league rankings & averages for clearances in 2015:
7th - Scott Thompson - 7.19 (clearances per game)
8th - Patrick Dangerfield - 7.17
54th - Rory Sloane - 4.33
58th - Richard Douglas - 4.19
60th - Cam Ellis-Yolmen - 4.09
64th - Matt Crouch - 3.94
100+ - Jarryd Lyons - 2.85

The gulf in class, when it comes to clearances, between Thompson/Dangerfield and the rest of our list, is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

Long on quantity... desperately short on quality.

And of course you factored in the green vest with CEY, Lyons and M. Crouch???

When it comes to T.O.G between Dangerfield, Thompson and CEY, Lyons and M. Crouch the time is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

 

[lunacy]

How can people say we don't need another marking forward?

Would any of you turn down a Gunston, Stringer, Fyfe, Darling?

Yes he is only 191cm but he marks very well above his head and is an awesome talent.

If we pick him at 13, we obviously think his injury will recover ok. So based on talent he is an awesome get.

We desperately need more tall forwards coming through. Yes he's shorter but marks better than Jenkins anyway (by the way I really like Jenkins).

Just imagine AO with Tex, Burton, Betts... Not to mention the others.

 

[Vader]

That's probably fair. And you're right, Dangerfield and Thompson are going to be big losses.
You don't just lose Dangerfield's clearances though, someone else just has a chance at them. There's quite a few that Dangerfield gets that no one else will, but it's not like we just lose 7 clearances.
And I guess I'm just optimistic on the Crouch fronts. Brad fills some of the hole Dangerfield leaves, Matt gets a bigger role, CEY gets a bigger role, Douglas and Sloane attend more centre bounces, Grigg/Lyons/Gore get their opportunity. It becomes more of a sum of parts kind of thing, rather than a Dangerfield and Thompson get it every time kind of thing. Granted, Brad could lose another full year to injury, which would hurt, but my point is that losing Talia and having a full year of Hartigan, Cheney and Lever would hurt just as much. And losing Tex to a full year is almost a catastrophe tbh, we have no cover for him. We have 'if x player gets injured, we have no one to cover for him' in quite a few different areas, not just inside mid.

There's no doubt that other players will benefit from not having Jacobs constantly directing the ball towards Dangerfield/Thompson. However, the reason why he did so is inescapable - these players were better at winning the clearances, so directing the ball towards them gave Adelaide the best chance of gaining the clearance. The others will now have more ball directed towards them - but their lack of talent (relative to Thompson/Dangerfield) means that they won't be winning as many clearances per opportunity compared to their more illustrious (former) teammates.

Brad Crouch has the potential to be an absolute gun, quite possibly one of the best players in the club's history. That's how highly I rate him. Unfortunately, history suggests that he rarely stays out of the medical rooms long enough to gain senior selection. Only time will tell whether or not that trend continues, but until proven otherwise it's safer to assume that he will remain MIA.

 

[Vader]

And of course you factored in the green vest with CEY, Lyons and M. Crouch???

When it comes to T.O.G between Dangerfield, Thompson and CEY, Lyons and M. Crouch the time is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

Of course, the reason they wore the green vest so often is because the gulf in talent between them is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

What Essendon do is largely irrelevant to us. Those players are no longer available to us and are effectively out of the equation by the time our draft selection comes around. Essendon's selections only have the power to reduce the number of permutations/options available to Adelaide, we have no influence over their selections.

The only factors we can influence are the players selected at #9 (Adelaide), #10 (Carlton), #11 (Richmond) and #12 (Adelaide). Assuming, that the GWS pick (currently #10 is used on an Academy player before pick #9).

There number of permutations rises above the standard 20-player order of merit list because of our ability to influence the Carlton & Richmond selections. Refer to my previous post discussing players X & Y.

It's also possible that the club wants to grab 1x mid and 1x KPP. I hope they don't go down this path - I want to see 2x mids - but I can't logically exclude the possibility. This then complicates the X & Y equation even further.

You're right in terms of players available .....but wrong in saying Essendon's decision is irrelevant

Their decision could affect whether we get Francis or not .......now you may not have any interest and may not even watch the telecast at that point ......but i sure as hell will be watching intently what Essendon and Melbourne do

The Players i want depend on earlier decisions ......i guess you're comfortable taking whoever

Last year weall watched intently to see if Lever would drop ......are you saying zero interest in this scenario?

 

[Scorpus]

You obviously have shitloads of faith in Hartigan to be a very decent 2nd fiddle - that's ok, that's your opinion

We don't need three 1st round picks in defence when our midfield won't be up to scratch.

Sort out that 2nd/3rd KPD position either through developing Hartigan or picking up someone in the rookie draft/next year

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I'm not saying collins is one of our first options but all I'm saying is

1. We will be drafting a 191cm + player if we can help it ( h mckay , weid, b mckay , burton, collins , himmelberg)

2. We have done a whole lot of contingency planning for an unpredictable draft hence about 8 kids think they are a chance to reach us at 13

Ok understood .......so your preference in order is?
h mckay , weid, b mckay , burton, collins , himmelberg

Mine is
H.McKay (forward)
Burton (if medically ok) (Forward/Mid)
Weideman (Forward)
Himmelberg (Forward)
B.McKay (Defender and Forward)
Another Midfielder
Collins

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Twomey saying it's Milera and Burton

Link?

BTW would be very happy that outcome

 

[Danger in Texas]

Link?

BTW would be very happy that outcome

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-11-22/callum-twomeys-2015-phantom-draft

 

[WaynesWorld19]

What position would Burton play at AFL level. Is he a Luke Bruest type/size?

First 3-4 years ......he's a Gunstan type forward ...almost a clone

 

[FAITH]

ah chee is a massive surprise if taken that early

 

[Danger in Texas]

I guess we can all agree on one thing - Milera should be a priority with our first pick. Crow through and through, fills a need, has some very elite traits in which we are lacking somewhat. Would be the perfect player just about.

 

[Brentmeister]

ah chee is a massive surprise if taken that early

First I've heard of him going anywhere near that high.