Jeremias
Moderator
- Sep 26, 2004
- 46,219
- 62,619
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Moderator
- #1
OK, fair warning - this is a very long post. I had a lot of fun writing it, hopefully it reads well, makes sense and generates some good discussion.
I mentioned this in another thread, but I think it is an interesting enough point of discussion to warrant its own.
The more I think about where we're at currently, the more I see a comparison with the Philadelphia 76ers over in the NBA.
For those of you who are unaware, at the end of the 2012/2013 NBA season (where they finished outside the playoffs with a 34-48 record) the 76ers were at a crossroads, and decided to embark on a complete rebuild.
What has followed since has been named "The Process", a phase of complete overhaul and rebuild of the franchise, both on and off the court.
Throughout the rebuild the franchise has been a laughing stock - they have been queried, critiqued and mocked to no end - but they formulated a plan, and have not wavered from it along the way.
Five years later we are now seeing the fruits of that planning and long term vision, and of the meticulous planning that has gone on behind the scenes.
Consider each season since, and the win/loss record of the 76ers:
2013/2014 - 19 wins, 63 losses (.232) - Season (1)
2014/2015 - 18 wins, 64 losses (.220) - Season (2)
2015/2016 - 10 wins, 72 losses (.122) - Season (3)
2016/2017 - 28 wins, 54 losses (.341) - Season (4)
2017/2018 - 52 wins, 30 losses (.634) - Season (5)
Note: Philadelphia recently finished the 2017/2018 regular season 3rd in the Eastern Conference, and are a good chance to progress deep into the playoffs.
So, how did they go about this rebuild?
Timeline
2013 off-season
- Hired a new Head Coach, Brett Brown. Brett never played NBA, but had served as an assistant coach in the NBA, and had previously been a Head Coach for many years in Australia.
- Traded their best player, an All-Star, on draft night for the draft rights to the number 6 pick (Nerlens Noel) + a future first round pick.
- With their first pick, selected Michael Carter-Williams, who went on to be named the Rookie Of The Year in 2013/2014
2013/2014 - Season (1)
- Philadelphia tied the NBA record for most consecutive losses (26).
- Finished with a 19-63 record.
2014 off-season
- Drafted Joel Embiid (pick 3), Elfrid Payton (pick 10)
2014/2015 - Season (2)
- Elfrid Payton, taken at pick 10, was traded on draft night for Dario Saric (pick 12, who only joined the team prior to the 2016/2017 season), a future first round pick, and a future second round pick.
- Philadelphia finished with an 18-64 record, after starting the season with 17 straight losses.
- Joel Embiid, taken at pick 3 in the draft, sat out the entire year due to injury.
- Michael Carter-Williams, named ROTY just one season prior, was traded for a first round pick.
2015 off-season
- Drafted Jahlil Okafor at pick 3
2015/2016 - Season (3)
- Finished with a 10-72 record, the second worst record in franchise history.
- Incurred the longest losing streak in American sports history with 28 consecutive losses
- For the second year in a row, Joel Embiid did not play a game due to injury
- Completed relatively minor trades, providing access to a future first round pick, and moved on a number of future second round picks for an established player.
2016 off-season
- Drafted our very own Ben Simmons with the first overall pick
2016/2017 - Season (4)
- Ben Simmons ruled out for his entire rookie season with a foot injury
- Joel Embiid, their pick 3 from 2014, finally makes his long-anticipated debut and plays 31 games.
- Dario Saric, traded to the franchise on draft day 2014, finally comes across from Europe, 3 seasons after being drafted
- Importantly, this season is the first time throughout "The Process" that the Sixers went down the Free Agency path, adding Jerryd Bayless, Sergio Rodriguez, and veteran Gerald Henderson Jnr
- Finished the season with a record of 28-54
- Traded Nerlens Noel (acquired after the 2012/2013 season) for a 2017 1st round draft pick, a 2018 1st round draft pick, a 2015 1st round pick and Andrew Bogut, who was waived just a few days later
- Traded pick 3 + a future 1st round pick for pick 1 in the 2017 draft
2017 off-season
- Selected Markelle Fultz with the first overall pick
2017/2018 - Season (5)
- Ben Simmons makes his long-awaited debut after missing the entire 2016/2017 season
- Markelle Fultz, taken at pick 1 in the draft, missed most of the year due to injury
- This was Philadelphia's first 50-win season since 2000/2001.
- Finished the season with a 52-30 record, including a game winning streak, plus the first game of the first round of playoffs, to end the season
- Traded Jahlil Okafor, who they took at pick 3 in the 2015 draft, effectively for salary cap relief.
So where are the similarities?
There are obviously significant differences between the two codes, and in particular the ability and speed at which clubs can rebuild, but I see a number of similarities which are worth taking note of:
1) Middling clubs.
Both clubs were middle of the road when they made the decision to rebuild, effectively stuck in no mans land.
2) Culture is king.
The 76ers as an organization are tremendously proud of the culture they have built over the past few years, both on and off the court. This has been a priority for Bolton since his appointment as senior coach.
3) Process > Results.
Positive results are nice - after all, they provide "emotional nourishment" - but the process is critical. Get that right and results will follow.
4) Being just OK isn't enough.
This is the mantra that really sparked the 76ers into action, and I believe we have followed suit. From day one the club has said we're not after immediate glory, but rather a period of sustained success.
5) Both clubs hired an untried head coach.
Brett Brown had no NBA playing experience, nor did Bolton play AFL. Both however were appointed on the back of assistant coaching roles at very successful clubs (Brown at San Antonio Spurs, Bolton at Hawthorn), and both spent time coaching their own clubs (Brown the North Melbourne Giants, Bolton had a number of senior coaching roles)
6) Going backward, to go forward.
As you can see (way) above, Philadelphia went from 34 wins, to 19, down to 18, then right down to 10 wins before they started their rebound. Carlton started from a lower base, and adopted the scorched earth policy at the end of 2015.
The below is purely superficial and hypothetical, but if we're to apply the 76ers winning percentages to our next few years, we get the following:
2016 - 7 wins, 15 losses (.318)
2017 - 6 wins, 16 losses (.273)
2018 - .122 = 2-3 wins
2019 - .341 = 7-8 wins
2020 - .634 = 13-14 wins
Note: In years one and two of our rebuild our winning % was slightly higher, and I expect each season to be similar - so instead of 2-3 this year, we may be looking more at 3-5.
I know there is much doom and gloom surrounding our performances this year, but next year looks right to me. I have consistently said I expect to see significant improvement starting next season, and I have not wavered from that. 7-9 wins is realistic, but it is not unreasonable to suggest we may win more.
2020 I fully expect to make the finals.
The Hard Questions
1) Will we trade a major asset?
Throughout "The Process", the 76ers have been bold, and not shied away from making some big calls on the trade table.
The entire process started when they moved on their only All-Star, Jrue Holiday, for a number of high draft picks over a two year period.
They have then proceeded to trade Michael Carter-Williams (pick 11 2013, traded in 2014/2015), Elfrid Payton (pick 10 2014, traded on draft night), Nerlens Noel (pick 6 2013, traded in 2016/2017) and Jahlil Okafor (pick 3 2015, traded in 2017/2018).
We've deliberately ensured we have a heavy presence in the early stages of the draft, but would we consider doing something similar, perhaps with someone like Weitering or McKay?
In truth, I suspect not, but SOS has shown himself to be ruthless - so can we rule it out completely?
Have we diminished any need to go down this path, by previously jettisoning established talent in the early years of the rebuild to generate currency?
2) When will we look to Free Agency?
We have already gone down the path of delisted free agency, but RFA/UFA is a whole new ball game (pardon the pun).
Interesting to note is that the 76ers had three full years of rebuilding through the draft, before they decided to dabble in free agency.
But importantly, when they did decide to go down the free agency path, they didn't go after any big names, and still haven't. Instead they went for a number of mid-to-lower tier free agents, as well as adding some veteran presence.
If we are to follow a similar path, we may look to free agency after three full years of rebuilding, which would bring us to the end of this season.
And this is exactly what I alluded to elsewhere on the board - there are big names to choose from at the end of this year, including Sloane, Lynch, McGovern and maybe Gaff.
Are we better off going for one of those, or would it be smarter to go for a few of the mid-to-lower tier FAs - Guthrie, Wallis, Dahlhaus, Atley the most noteworthy.
And then, if we're talking veteran presence and leadership, do guys like Mundy, McVeigh, Smith, Lecras and Rischitelli come into consideration?
TL;DR - Don't do that to me - this took an eternity to put together, the least you could do is read it!
But really - Embrace The Journey! Apologies for the corny catch-phrase, but "Trust The Process" isn't a whole lot better!
This was a lot of fun to put together, and the similarities between the two rebuilds are very evident. I always try to ignore the external noise (from the media, in particular), and this has only strengthened my confidence that we are doing the right thing, and that things will turn around sooner than many think.
I believe SOS has spent a fair bit of time in the USA over the past few years, particularly in preparation for the introduction of live pick trading, but I wonder how closely he has followed "The Process" and if it has influenced his decisions since returning to the club.
Would love to read your thoughts - on any or all of the above.
I mentioned this in another thread, but I think it is an interesting enough point of discussion to warrant its own.
The more I think about where we're at currently, the more I see a comparison with the Philadelphia 76ers over in the NBA.
For those of you who are unaware, at the end of the 2012/2013 NBA season (where they finished outside the playoffs with a 34-48 record) the 76ers were at a crossroads, and decided to embark on a complete rebuild.
What has followed since has been named "The Process", a phase of complete overhaul and rebuild of the franchise, both on and off the court.
Throughout the rebuild the franchise has been a laughing stock - they have been queried, critiqued and mocked to no end - but they formulated a plan, and have not wavered from it along the way.
Five years later we are now seeing the fruits of that planning and long term vision, and of the meticulous planning that has gone on behind the scenes.
Consider each season since, and the win/loss record of the 76ers:
2013/2014 - 19 wins, 63 losses (.232) - Season (1)
2014/2015 - 18 wins, 64 losses (.220) - Season (2)
2015/2016 - 10 wins, 72 losses (.122) - Season (3)
2016/2017 - 28 wins, 54 losses (.341) - Season (4)
2017/2018 - 52 wins, 30 losses (.634) - Season (5)
Note: Philadelphia recently finished the 2017/2018 regular season 3rd in the Eastern Conference, and are a good chance to progress deep into the playoffs.
So, how did they go about this rebuild?
Timeline
2013 off-season
- Hired a new Head Coach, Brett Brown. Brett never played NBA, but had served as an assistant coach in the NBA, and had previously been a Head Coach for many years in Australia.
- Traded their best player, an All-Star, on draft night for the draft rights to the number 6 pick (Nerlens Noel) + a future first round pick.
- With their first pick, selected Michael Carter-Williams, who went on to be named the Rookie Of The Year in 2013/2014
2013/2014 - Season (1)
- Philadelphia tied the NBA record for most consecutive losses (26).
- Finished with a 19-63 record.
2014 off-season
- Drafted Joel Embiid (pick 3), Elfrid Payton (pick 10)
2014/2015 - Season (2)
- Elfrid Payton, taken at pick 10, was traded on draft night for Dario Saric (pick 12, who only joined the team prior to the 2016/2017 season), a future first round pick, and a future second round pick.
- Philadelphia finished with an 18-64 record, after starting the season with 17 straight losses.
- Joel Embiid, taken at pick 3 in the draft, sat out the entire year due to injury.
- Michael Carter-Williams, named ROTY just one season prior, was traded for a first round pick.
2015 off-season
- Drafted Jahlil Okafor at pick 3
2015/2016 - Season (3)
- Finished with a 10-72 record, the second worst record in franchise history.
- Incurred the longest losing streak in American sports history with 28 consecutive losses
- For the second year in a row, Joel Embiid did not play a game due to injury
- Completed relatively minor trades, providing access to a future first round pick, and moved on a number of future second round picks for an established player.
2016 off-season
- Drafted our very own Ben Simmons with the first overall pick
2016/2017 - Season (4)
- Ben Simmons ruled out for his entire rookie season with a foot injury
- Joel Embiid, their pick 3 from 2014, finally makes his long-anticipated debut and plays 31 games.
- Dario Saric, traded to the franchise on draft day 2014, finally comes across from Europe, 3 seasons after being drafted
- Importantly, this season is the first time throughout "The Process" that the Sixers went down the Free Agency path, adding Jerryd Bayless, Sergio Rodriguez, and veteran Gerald Henderson Jnr
- Finished the season with a record of 28-54
- Traded Nerlens Noel (acquired after the 2012/2013 season) for a 2017 1st round draft pick, a 2018 1st round draft pick, a 2015 1st round pick and Andrew Bogut, who was waived just a few days later
- Traded pick 3 + a future 1st round pick for pick 1 in the 2017 draft
2017 off-season
- Selected Markelle Fultz with the first overall pick
2017/2018 - Season (5)
- Ben Simmons makes his long-awaited debut after missing the entire 2016/2017 season
- Markelle Fultz, taken at pick 1 in the draft, missed most of the year due to injury
- This was Philadelphia's first 50-win season since 2000/2001.
- Finished the season with a 52-30 record, including a game winning streak, plus the first game of the first round of playoffs, to end the season
- Traded Jahlil Okafor, who they took at pick 3 in the 2015 draft, effectively for salary cap relief.
So where are the similarities?
There are obviously significant differences between the two codes, and in particular the ability and speed at which clubs can rebuild, but I see a number of similarities which are worth taking note of:
1) Middling clubs.
Both clubs were middle of the road when they made the decision to rebuild, effectively stuck in no mans land.
2) Culture is king.
The 76ers as an organization are tremendously proud of the culture they have built over the past few years, both on and off the court. This has been a priority for Bolton since his appointment as senior coach.
3) Process > Results.
Positive results are nice - after all, they provide "emotional nourishment" - but the process is critical. Get that right and results will follow.
4) Being just OK isn't enough.
This is the mantra that really sparked the 76ers into action, and I believe we have followed suit. From day one the club has said we're not after immediate glory, but rather a period of sustained success.
5) Both clubs hired an untried head coach.
Brett Brown had no NBA playing experience, nor did Bolton play AFL. Both however were appointed on the back of assistant coaching roles at very successful clubs (Brown at San Antonio Spurs, Bolton at Hawthorn), and both spent time coaching their own clubs (Brown the North Melbourne Giants, Bolton had a number of senior coaching roles)
6) Going backward, to go forward.
As you can see (way) above, Philadelphia went from 34 wins, to 19, down to 18, then right down to 10 wins before they started their rebound. Carlton started from a lower base, and adopted the scorched earth policy at the end of 2015.
The below is purely superficial and hypothetical, but if we're to apply the 76ers winning percentages to our next few years, we get the following:
2016 - 7 wins, 15 losses (.318)
2017 - 6 wins, 16 losses (.273)
2018 - .122 = 2-3 wins
2019 - .341 = 7-8 wins
2020 - .634 = 13-14 wins
Note: In years one and two of our rebuild our winning % was slightly higher, and I expect each season to be similar - so instead of 2-3 this year, we may be looking more at 3-5.
I know there is much doom and gloom surrounding our performances this year, but next year looks right to me. I have consistently said I expect to see significant improvement starting next season, and I have not wavered from that. 7-9 wins is realistic, but it is not unreasonable to suggest we may win more.
2020 I fully expect to make the finals.
The Hard Questions
1) Will we trade a major asset?
Throughout "The Process", the 76ers have been bold, and not shied away from making some big calls on the trade table.
The entire process started when they moved on their only All-Star, Jrue Holiday, for a number of high draft picks over a two year period.
They have then proceeded to trade Michael Carter-Williams (pick 11 2013, traded in 2014/2015), Elfrid Payton (pick 10 2014, traded on draft night), Nerlens Noel (pick 6 2013, traded in 2016/2017) and Jahlil Okafor (pick 3 2015, traded in 2017/2018).
We've deliberately ensured we have a heavy presence in the early stages of the draft, but would we consider doing something similar, perhaps with someone like Weitering or McKay?
In truth, I suspect not, but SOS has shown himself to be ruthless - so can we rule it out completely?
Have we diminished any need to go down this path, by previously jettisoning established talent in the early years of the rebuild to generate currency?
2) When will we look to Free Agency?
We have already gone down the path of delisted free agency, but RFA/UFA is a whole new ball game (pardon the pun).
Interesting to note is that the 76ers had three full years of rebuilding through the draft, before they decided to dabble in free agency.
But importantly, when they did decide to go down the free agency path, they didn't go after any big names, and still haven't. Instead they went for a number of mid-to-lower tier free agents, as well as adding some veteran presence.
If we are to follow a similar path, we may look to free agency after three full years of rebuilding, which would bring us to the end of this season.
And this is exactly what I alluded to elsewhere on the board - there are big names to choose from at the end of this year, including Sloane, Lynch, McGovern and maybe Gaff.
Are we better off going for one of those, or would it be smarter to go for a few of the mid-to-lower tier FAs - Guthrie, Wallis, Dahlhaus, Atley the most noteworthy.
And then, if we're talking veteran presence and leadership, do guys like Mundy, McVeigh, Smith, Lecras and Rischitelli come into consideration?
TL;DR - Don't do that to me - this took an eternity to put together, the least you could do is read it!
But really - Embrace The Journey! Apologies for the corny catch-phrase, but "Trust The Process" isn't a whole lot better!
This was a lot of fun to put together, and the similarities between the two rebuilds are very evident. I always try to ignore the external noise (from the media, in particular), and this has only strengthened my confidence that we are doing the right thing, and that things will turn around sooner than many think.
I believe SOS has spent a fair bit of time in the USA over the past few years, particularly in preparation for the introduction of live pick trading, but I wonder how closely he has followed "The Process" and if it has influenced his decisions since returning to the club.
Would love to read your thoughts - on any or all of the above.
