Prediction Expectations for 2017

[PicaBoo]

Simple said if I look at the opposition a few of our direct competition haven't improved as significant as we have. Some of the games we lost last year are games we should win this year just based upon improvement of either list: Carlton, Richmond and Norf. Enough to make a difference in playing finals

 

[Buckley is my hero]

I expect us to push for a finals birth in 2017. Reality is there are only 8 of them and I think there could be 11-12 sides in genuine contention. so it wont be easy.

I'd love to see some stability in the senior team with minimal changes week to week, even a few NO CHANGE announcements, as I think that will be key to us actually making the finals.

I expect a few of our kids to have break out seasons. Think DeGoey is already entrenched in our senior side but 2017 he'll go bang. Think Aish, Wills, Maynard, Ramsay, Broomhead and Cox will all take the next step. Think WHE will start slowly but be firmly entrenched in the 22 by season's end.

Of the draftees, expect Brown, Kirby and Schade to be the most likely to crack a senior game in 2017.

Expect both Keeffe and Thomas to have reasonable return years with Keeffe eventually forcing Dunn out of the side.

Expect Sier, Phillips, Crocker, and Oxley to all be putting pressure on senior players to hold their spots with good consistent VFL footy.

Wells to play about 15 games and be cherry ripe if we make finals.

Expect Mayne to win over the vast majority of fans.

Expect the decisions to let Cloke, Frost, Williams and Brown go will seem better week by week through 2017. They may all get senior game time in 2017 but none will perform well enough (like Heater) to make us lament their departures.

Think 2017 will be a more even season than any we've ever witnessed.

I think all you say will happen, yet we will still struggle to make the final 8. With 13 or so changes to the list, we have done a major reboot of the list, like Carlton and it will take time for the club to find success, given you need players learning each other's games and spending a lot of time out on the ground together, before they start stringing winning games of football together. I can see major changes to the admin and coaching group if we don't make finals in 2017 and I just hope we don't panic and make changes we regret later on, because I think we're on the right path and will be successful at some point. That might be when we have a new coach and admin.

 

[Countrypie]

I think all you say will happen, yet we will still struggle to make the final 8. With 13 or so changes to the list, we have done a major reboot of the list, like Carlton and it will take time for the club to find success, given you need players learning each other's games and spending a lot of time out on the ground together, before they start stringing winning games of football together. I can see major changes to the admin and coaching group if we don't make finals in 2017 and I just hope we don't panic and make changes we regret later on, because I think we're on the right path and will be successful at some point. That might be when we have a new coach and admin.

This is a really interesting point.

Most of the outs were not going to play seniors again. Their papers were stamped (with the exception of Marsh)

You can make arguments for Brown, Cloke and Marley but realistically none of those three was in our best 22 moving forward. Brown has serious limitations to his game, Cloke has serious limitations to his psyche and Marley is a can of worms best left unopened. Realistically the core of our best 22 remains the same with significant upgrades in the form of Wells and Hoskin- Elliott and probably Mayne. Most of the others add depth . I don't think the turnover is as drastic as it looks. Gault, Toovey, Caff, Witts and Frost were always going to be placed behind others. TBH you wouldn't want them playing in your firsts - if they were you would be asking for trouble.

The core hasn't changed much Grundy, Pendles, Sidey, Reid, Moore, Treloar, Varcoe, De Goey, Adams, Fasolo, Elliott Howe and I can make a case for MAynard as well form the basis of a pretty solid core that have been playing together for well over 50 games.(except Treloar & Howe) You can build a very competitive team around that.
Factor in Sinclair, Langdon, Goldsack, Cox, White, Greenwood, Wills, Aish Phillis and Crocker and you have adequate playing depth to supplement the inclusions.

Bring it on

 

[jackcass]

This is a really interesting point.

Most of the outs were not going to play seniors again. Their papers were stamped (with the exception of Marsh)

You can make arguments for Brown, Cloke and Marley but realistically none of those three was in our best 22 moving forward. Brown has serious limitations to his game, Cloke has serious limitations to his psyche and Marley is a can of worms best left unopened. Realistically the core of our best 22 remains the same with significant upgrades in the form of Wells and Hoskin- Elliott and probably Mayne. Most of the others add depth . I don't think the turnover is as drastic as it looks. Gault, Toovey, Caff, Witts and Frost were always going to be placed behind others. TBH you wouldn't want them playing in your firsts - if they were you would be asking for trouble.

The core hasn't changed much Grundy, Pendles, Sidey, Reid, Moore, Treloar, Varcoe, De Goey, Adams, Fasolo, Elliott Howe and I can make a case for MAynard as well form the basis of a pretty solid core that have been playing together for well over 50 games.(except Treloar & Howe) You can build a very competitive team around that.
Factor in Sinclair, Langdon, Goldsack, Cox, White, Greenwood, Wills, Aish Phillis and Crocker and you have adequate playing depth to supplement the inclusions.

Bring it on

Yep, that's pretty much as I see it. May take time for Wells, Mayne, WHE and Dunn to adjust to the new environment but ultimately we've still retained the key players from our better performed sides of 2016 and we'll get a few back from injury.

 

[Frankie23]

We're pretty close to playing finals and competing. Clearly we were rocked early last year by issues internally/externally, and we played some pretty good footy coming home.

In my view we're two or three players stepping up away from really competing. Whether it's Aish/De Goey in the middle, Langdon down back, Elliot up forward, or the inclusion of Wells/Mayne. Whatever it is, the core is elite (Treloar, Grundy, Reid, Moore, Adams, Pendlebury, Sidebottom), players 8-16 really need to step up.

 

[Demonalke]

I expect finals or a new coach, simple as that. (My hope is that we have a good run with injuries finally)

 

[Scodog10]

Now that all football department movement has been finalised I feel that its appropriate to re-consider.

My initial expectation was 5th-6th given how far into the re-shaping of the list we are, but that has now been scaled back to 10th-12th. All incoming established playing personal come with question marks, we've had 4 GM's of footy since the 2016 season ended and I think we have a poor coaching group. There were changes for the better via Gotch and LT gone, but not enough to offset the queries I have moving forward.

Considering we haven't met expectations since 2010 I think we're in for a long year!

 

[Tarkyn_24]

When your team's supporters start predicting scraping into the eight rather than prelims and flags, you just know that the team is destined to finish 14th to 16th

 

[spartan-magpie]

When your team's supporters start predicting scraping into the eight rather than prelims and flags, you just know that the team is destined to finish 14th to 16th

We are going to finish top 4. We are going to be a serious flag chance.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

We are going to finish top 4. We are going to be a serious flag chance.

I would love for this to be correct. I think we're much more likely for bottom four though.

North and Brissy should be 17 and 18 respectively, lump us in with Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond and Gold Coast as the other teams with a chance of sitting down the bottom with them.

 

[Go Pies!!!!!]

Anywhere from 6-10 with a good run of injuries you never know, if we can have 10 - 12 of our regular 22 have career best years then that changes the landscape big time. Unfortunately if we lose some key players it could be 12th or worse. All i know either way i will be there supporting the boys no matter what.

 

[CarnMags]

Everyone is talking about the talent on our list, the development likely to occur and free run of injuries - all of which are on-field related.

My concern is our front office - which from the outside, seems to be a debacle. Everything about the Club screams chaos to me - which is just not the environment to get the best out of the player or the coach.

Im guessing 8th - 13th, and a difficult year for one of our beloved sons.

 

[jackcass]

Everyone is talking about the talent on our list, the development likely to occur and free run of injuries - all of which are on-field related.

My concern is our front office - which from the outside, seems to be a debacle. Everything about the Club screams chaos to me - which is just not the environment to get the best out of the player or the coach.

Im guessing 8th - 13th, and a difficult year for one of our beloved sons.

Not at all concerned about whatever has been happening in the off-field dynamics. Doubt that will even register with the playing group and the return of Gotch and Walsh, as well as the addition of Sando, will have Bucks feeling as well supported as he's ever been in his coaching role.

 

[spartan-magpie]

I would love for this to be correct. I think we're much more likely for bottom four though.

North and Brissy should be 17 and 18 respectively, lump us in with Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond and Gold Coast as the other teams with a chance of sitting down the bottom with them.

No, no, no, no, no..... no.

We will finish higher than, imo, at least the following clubs.

Brisbane
Carltoon
Fremantle
Richmond
Essendrugs
North
Geelong
Gold Coast
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
St Kilda
West coast

Adelaide, hawthorn, Sydney and ourselves will fight it out for the remaining top 4 spots - 2 of which should go to the gods and gws.

 

[JB1975]

I think that we have the elements in place to push for the top four, and our second half of this season gave me enough reason to believe that these elements might be able to gel under Buckley.

MID/RUCK: Treloar, Pendles, Sidey and Adams will continue to do their thing, and their thing is impressive. But the scope for development and improvement also gives me some hope, and I'm bullish about JDG, confident about Aish, and I look forward to Grundy becoming even better. This all bodes well in and of itself, but the addition of Wells (as long as he gets on the park) could be something truly stunning.

DEFENCE: Clueless in the first half of this year (the St Kilda game has given me mild PTSD), it became serviceable as the season went on. Improvement can come from a number of sources. It would help if the mids can win a bigger share of the centre clearances, to reduce the stress upon the backs. I think that Dunn will be solid. I don't think he's better quality player than Nathan Brown, but I feel sure that Brown stopped loving his football at Collingwood a while ago (no evidence for that assertion...evidence is overrated) and that Dunn will give us a non-dubious injection down there. Schade is handy depth, while Keefe owes the club and himself the best of what's he got. And then there's the most handsome and most talented of all, Matt Scharenberg. I haven't questioned or regretted the decision of the club to draft him for a second, but obviously his body will need to match his talent and in order to justify the crush I have on the man. I have hopes he will become more than a defender, but that's where his value lies for now.

FORWARD: I've ranted on this in the Elliott thread. Billy is back, and an improved midfield (esp. Wells) and Fasolo and Moore and Elliott is a difficult proposition for any opposition. Maybe we can throw WHE into that equation, and I'm still hopeful that the Broom and Barry (Crocker) can play a part. Not sure about Cox, but I'm confident that either or both of Cox or White will do a reasonable job alongside Moore. Mayne? No, not as handsome as Scharenberg, but I won't judge him on his recent form with a truly woeful Freo.

SUMMARY: I've done it. I've convinced myself that we're tracking towards the cup!

CAVEAT/S: Maggie5 made a telling point earlier, one which I've pondered. Sport and team psychology is a mysterious thing, and you'd generally make more sense from the entrails of a goat, but the fact is that Collingwood FC needs a bit of chemistry. It doesn't come from a coach, not completely, but it's true that a good coach can nourish or kill team chemistry. The Bulldogs had/have it, without question. I've queried whether the GWS have 'it' at key moments in games. Not sure that the Pies have had much of 'it' at all in recent times. Do our list changes undermine or enhance the chemistry? We'll see.

SUMMARY (Actual summary, not the false Johnny Farnham-style 'one more time'...promise): We'll be playing finals. We'll be a more consistent team across the year, and I expect that we'll end up at 4-6. It'll be another even year across the comp, and so by the end of next year we might even fancy ourselves for the premiership. Honest.

 

[PIES 4 LIFE]

Premiership.
If we ain't aiming for a Premiership then why are we even in the competition?
My expectation every year is for the ultimate.
And if/when we start to falter I will call it as I see it.
People hate that, but the truth must out.
Anyway, looking forward to seeing the boys lift the cup in September.

The club aims for the premiership, we as supporters aim for improvement, for new players to step up, and to see the road to victory. Because I can't speak for others but I can also get enjoyment out of the season even if we don't go all the way, as long as the players show commitment to the cause, and I can see that we will eventually get there.

But I agree its finals or bust this year, them hopefully a finals win, followed by another finals win, an upset in the preliminary and then a win on grand final day.

 

[P1ET1ME]

Has to be finals for mine. With a decent injury run i dont see why they couldn't.

 

[THATSGOLD]

When your team's supporters start predicting scraping into the eight rather than prelims and flags, you just know that the team is destined to finish 14th to 16th

14th to 16th is about right. Needed another gun in the middle. (Rocklift) another quality forward like Cameron or Patton a quality small forward like Wingard a good backman like Tahlia and a back up ruck who can play forward like Tom Boyd. If we had those I'd be predicting top 4. That's how far away we are.

 

[shizzle]

For me I have us in exactly the same boat as I did last year, which is 6-14, I find it hard to narrow it down further due to the evenness in the competition, and to be honest we don't have the top end talent(Elite or A grade players) or strong leaders(yet) to drag the rest of the group along with them.

As has been the case for a few years now there is so many ifs and buts, as there is with all clubs, but for us it seems more so, and we seem more erratic and less predictable than the clubs that finish above us, and I'm not even going to talk about our coaching performance as a collective which clearly has to improve.

For this year it's does our backline hold up, and does it rebound and propel us forward, is our forwardline potent enough to kick a winning score, does Wells stay healthy and perform at a high level over 15+ games, does Chris Mayne recapture his best form, does Elliott firstly get healthy enough to play and be able to play at a high level once more, does Ben Reid manage to stay healthy like he did last year, do Sinclair, Ramsey, Fasolo, Scharenberg and to a lesser extent Adams and Moore be available to play for most of our games, do players like De Goey, Langdon, Aish, Phillips, Broomhead, Moore, Wills, Maynard, Crocker take the next step in their development, do we find a couple of players that perform better than we could have expected.

If the answer to 90% of this is yes then I believe we will play finals, but yet again that's a big if and probably unlikely.

 

[frizzle]

The last 2 or 3 years I expected us to make finals & finish top 6. Alas I was disappointed.
This season I have less expectation. In fact I don't see us winning more games than last year. Perhaps I'll be surprised?

 

[Frankmagpie]

Agree that there could have been problems in Maxwell's later time but strongly disagree that his opinion now has as much currency as our comments on bf. Whilst he might dislike Buckley (as per pablo disco bar ) or have a bias as he works at GWS the fact remains he knows more about AFL and Collingwood then most of us ever could. He played with 14 of the guys still on our list (Pendles, Sidey, Blair, Langdon, Elliott, Adams, Goldsack, White, Fasolo, Grundy, Broomhead, Sinclair, Reid, Ramsay + Keeffe & Thomas) plus guys like Caff, Tarrant, Johnson who have or do work at the club in recent times.


He may have just meant we won't win a flag anytime soon as GWS will win them all (or Dogs or other team he sees as better).

Bad decisions could have been off-field - Allan, Tapping, diversification into netball, women's footy, keeping Lockyer & Rocca or he may have had a bit to drink (given it was at the races). Personally I wouldn't read too much into it as many possibilities and we can't be sure of Nick's agenda / bias. Heck even Hawks seem to have made some stupid decisions lately (Mitchell & Lewis). I'm sure Pies have made some and gotten other things right. What matters most is performance on field next year & the year after etc.

Well said

 

[legendstatus]

Everyone is talking about the talent on our list, the development likely to occur and free run of injuries - all of which are on-field related.

My concern is our front office - which from the outside, seems to be a debacle. Everything about the Club screams chaos to me - which is just not the environment to get the best out of the player or the coach.

Im guessing 8th - 13th, and a difficult year for one of our beloved sons.

Is front office another term for our forward line? If not I don't remember staff who some have never played a game, kick a winning score?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[PicaBoo]

14th to 16th is about right. Needed another gun in the middle. (Rocklift) another quality forward like Cameron or Patton a quality small forward like Wingard a good backman like Tahlia and a back up ruck who can play forward like Tom Boyd. If we had those I'd be predicting top 4. That's how far away we are.

14-16th? Brisbane and Carlton fighting for the spoon again . Then us. Surely not. Tigers, Suns or Port Adelaide are not better then us either. That already makes us above 14th.
So tell me what is your explanation for going backwards compared to last season when we actually have improved.

 

[Babylove]

My main expectation is to see improvement in our group. We've kind of treaded water for the last three years, so this year decent improve the is non-negotiable. We should challenge for finals. I hope that we significant September action, but too me the first two points should be the minimum acceptable result for the year.

 

[doodles98]

9th
But with a bit of luck with injury.. and if they can gel.. we have a high ceiling and could do much better and surprise a few.