Finals predictions

[Section 5]

After all the time playing finals we still don’t know how to close out games and that will always be our biggest concern as fans especially in Finals.
What they do well is get themselves into winning positions.
But closing it out, that’s another thing entirely.

I think we tend to try and shut down game before we should.
Not talking about just in the last quarter.
We tend to do this at varying times of a game when we are the dominant team

 

[braddsey]

After all the time playing finals we still don’t know how to close out games and that will always be our biggest concern as fans especially in Finals.
What they do well is get themselves into winning positions.
But closing it out, that’s another thing entirely.

I think we did get better at it for a while. Our close-ish wins since the bye:

• 20 points over the Saints
• 5 points over Melbourne
• 11 points over Adelaide
• 13 points over West Coast (in the sacked coach bounce game)
• 2 points over the Swans

We also got better at not conceding goals in red-time.

We've slipped badly the last 2 weeks. Hopefully these last 2 weeks are a "slap in the face" wake up for players that may have got a bit slack in attention to detail at the end of the quarter/match. Absolutely needs to be a focus in training over the next 3 weeks.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I think we tend to try and shut down game before we should.
Not talking about just in the last quarter.
We tend to do this at varying times of a game when we are the dominant team

Well that certainly did not happen on Saturday. The tactics from both teams in the closing minutes could not have been more diametrically opposed.

 

[martinson]

Well that certainly did not happen on Saturday. The tactics from both teams in the closing minutes could not have been more diametrically opposed.

We were mentally and physically tired in my view. The mental letdown after not beating the Giants was never more evident than the last 3 minutes on Saturday where we never had any hope of clearing the ball out of congestion and really looked beaten once the Pies hit the front. Just resigned to it.

I know we've copped a lot of criticism and I'm one of the critics but hopefully we've gotten that out of our system.

Just in passing some people have sent me the Lloyd/Montagna/Kingy clips with the vision having a laugh at how inept we are and as if that was what was happening all through the game. Amazing how the media can create a narrative and if you have no involvement you tend to believe that's the whole story.

We have to shake that perception off over the next few weeks if we can get further than the next 2.

 

[Grasshopper17]

We were mentally and physically tired in my view.

Fact of the matter is we are poor in red time (the end of quarters), last quarters (the end of games), and I don't think you can say we've been in particularly hot form at the back end of seasons either.

I think you are on the money, but on the evidence presented I'm equally certain that the latter leads to the former...

 

[martinson]

Fact of the matter is we are poor in red time (the end of quarters), last quarters (the end of games), and I don't think you can say we've been in particularly hot form at the back end of seasons either.

I think you are on the money, but on the evidence presented I'm equally certain that the latter leads to the former...

Oh look we do have to face what's staring us in the face.

We've been up for 5 or 6 years and what everyone was happy to put down to inexperience and learnings isn't washing anymore. Just talking to non Lions supporters the impression is that we're soft under pressure and don't handle pressure situations well.

We need to face up to the reasons and address them otherwise that will continue to be the narrative in the footy world. So we've still got the chance to do that this year.

 

[BigCat2]

In 2022, we got badly beaten by Demons in the last round, in fact had basically lost the game by quarter time, in the Zorko/Petty game.

After 1 week off, we beat Richmond in a high scoring affair, then beat Demons in one of our more recent memorable wins.

We've had to play catch up all season just to get to this point, and it's hard to maintain the rage over a prolonged period. In fact, we went 9-1 at one stage, and even now we're 8-2 over the last 10 weeks. Only the Giants have a better form than us in the same period.

Anything is still possible afte this.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Excuse the ignorance, but ive seen a few say that if we were to finish fifth and win our elimination final, we’d likely play Geelong if they lose their final. Therefore, in what position would Cats need to finish after the end of this round’s matches and who would be their likely away opponent for them to hypothetically lose to then face Lions?

If we were to finish 5th, in order to face Geelong in a week 2 Semi Final, they would have to finish 4th.

 

[Dalions]

Then that seems unlikely to me. We need Port and GWS to both win away to Freo and Dogs respectively or assuming Geelong win, hope they don’t win by too much (difficult when they’re playing Eagles at home) and if Port and GWS do lose hope they only lose by small margins.

Given some of the chat in here and without actually looking closely at the ladder, for some reason I’d assumed it was a very likely outcome due to the chat but if you ask me, it seems about as unlikely as us losing the past two games.

For Geelong to move up the ladder they would need GWS to lose by 30 and them win by 35 roughly to overtake GWS and to overtake Port they would need Port to lose by 45 and them win by 50 give or take.
But if they lose they could fall to sixth if both we and the bulldogs win.

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

Hypothetically if West Coast were to beat Geelong it would surely have to be up there as the upset of the century.

 

[RU_]

Eagles with plenty of send offs for legends and all that..

 

[M Malice]

Hypothetically if West Coast were to beat Geelong it would surely have to be up there as the upset of the century.

I'd give the Eagles around a .05% chance of causing an upset.

What a downer it would be if it happened and then we went on to lose to the Bombers.

 

[Tom14]

I actually thought they'd give a severely depleted Carlton a serious run last weekend only to be obliberated, so I see next to no reason why it won't be a 10+ goal hiding against the Cats.

McGovern and Barrass are already confirmed to not be playing. Eagles are always awful down at pork barrel stadium. If its under 100 points I'd be surprised.

 

[Tom14]

Its entirely our own fault but pretty lame that Port are a chance to finish second when they literally get an additional home game over every bar Adelaide.

 

[Mr Ripper]

VFL team isn’t playing. Maybe CScott will rest everyone. Up the Eags.

 

[Tom14]

Yep which is why I have been confused why so many seem to think we'll play Geelong in the second week of the finals should we win and they lose week one of the finals......in terms of the machinations of how that would work based on predicted ladder positions.

GWs beats the dogs in ballarat, Port beats freo. Locks Geelong into 4th regardless of how well they win.

 

[M Malice]

Its entirely our own fault but pretty lame that Port are a chance to finish second when they literally get an additional home game over every bar Adelaide.

Yep it really irks me that Port are going to finish top 4, we gave them an absolute flogging not that long ago and I don't rate them a serious Premiership threat, would love to play them in a Semi Final if we win our Elimination Final... which after playing with the ladder predictor could be against any of Blues, Dockers, Hawks or Bulldogs.

 

[mpal6]

Just realized GWS could rest players for Sunday if Geelong win and jump them on percentage. No one will be able to pass them at that point and 4th is theirs. GWS might prefer staying in Sydney and taking on the Swans first up than travel interstate.

 

[dlanod]

Just realized GWS could rest players for Sunday if Geelong win and jump them on percentage. No one will be able to pass them at that point and 4th is theirs. GWS might prefer staying in Sydney and taking on the Swans first up than travel interstate.

I think GWS would love to smash the Dogs and potentially end their season. Kingsley doesn't strike me as someone who messes with form or motivation.

 

[luthor]

I actually thought they'd give a severely depleted Carlton a serious run last weekend only to be obliberated, so I see next to no reason why it won't be a 10+ goal hiding against the Cats.

They need to sack another coach to get motivated this week

 

[M Malice]

See a few of the Eagles senior players can’t be arsed making the trip too, McGovern, Ryan and one other. Cats’ll smash them

Sad, Cats are going to absolutely demolish the Eagles, would not be surprised with a 90+ point win.

 

[braddsey]

Yep it really irks me that Port are going to finish top 4, we gave them an absolute flogging not that long ago and I don't rate them a serious Premiership threat, would love to play them in a Semi Final if we win our Elimination Final... which after playing with the ladder predictor could be against any of Blues, Dockers, Hawks or Bulldogs.

Time to roll out the "No Houston - No Port" line!

No one to blame but ourselves for our predicament.
What it does mean is that we don't fear the teams above us any more than we fear the teams below us, and we're likely to face the teams below us at home in week 1. The biggest challenge (if we make it) will be the PF... coming up against a rested top 4 team, with the increased risk of additional injuries/concussion from the additional match, while the opponent will have no such concerns of missing players (at least on the concussion front).

 

[Bucking Beads]

Lets just win 5 straight and win the flag please.

 

[M Malice]

Lets just win 5 straight and win the flag please.

Easy-peasy, we have already done 9 straight this season.

 

[Grasshopper17]

If Geelong finish 2nd, they will have to play on Thursday/Friday, same as Hawthorn/Bulldogs.

So if we were to play Freo, this would have to be a strong chance of being a day game on Saturday, to give Freo a chance to fly home the same day.

Still a bit to play out today tho first.