First 23 in 2024

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p4p1

Club Legend
Apr 24, 2020
1,846
2,737
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Just wanting to get some opinions on what others think may happen during the year next year in regards to our best 23.

I've grouped the team by ages to get a good idea of what our age profile is like and then put them into colour groups for where I think they may sit in the squad.

Green = players who will keep their spot in the 22 unless injured.
Yellow = first 22 players whos automatic selection could be under pressure
Orange = players who could lock down automatic selection with some improvement.
Red = players who only get a game through injuries. This can be because of age, their position or that they need to show a lot of improvement to get a game.
Purple = unknown draftees. It's unlikely they will get a run of games.

Over 30's
Dayne Zorko
Jarryd Lyons
Ryan Lester

Lachie Neale
Darcy Fort
Lincoln McCarthy

Going into 2023 our age profile is pretty good. We have 6 players over 30, Lachie Neale is the only irreplaceable player in that group. McCarthy is very handy but not irreplaceable.
Zorko had some good games last year but IMO struggled a little bit to get up week after week. I love him as the 23rd man though. He could be a serious impact player for a quarter.

26-30
Joe Daniher
Charlie Cameron
Oscar McInerney

Darcy Gardiner
Conor McKenna
Harris Andrews
Josh Dunkley

Darragh Joyce
Eric Hipwood
Callum Ah Chee
Jarrod Berry

Hugh McCluggage
Tom Doedee

Brandon Ryan

No Suprises that the majority of the guys in this age group are locks. Doedee still needs to come back from his injury but I am confident once fit and healthy he becomes an automatic selection.
Cal Ah Chee's position could be under threat on a wing/HFF, not because he isn't a quality player but because we have a lot of talent looking to push into those positions.
Jarrod Berry is an interesting case. He should be an inside bull but his shoulder issues are letting that side of his game down. He does have an excellent mix of attributes for a winger. At 6'4 he towers over most wingers and should be a good get out of trouble target. He runs all day, has decent albeit not great pace and is generally a good user of the ball. His problem like Ah Chee is that a good chunk of our up and coming talent is looking to break into his main position. I don't see him being dropped but with the arrival of Fletcher last year, Ashcroft to come back, Clugg potentially being pushed back out to the wing and some of our HBFs having attributes to push up to a wing. His lack of versatility could count against him.

21-25
Brandon Starcevich
Noah Answerth
Zac Bailey
Jack Payne

Cam Rayner
James Madden
Keidean Coleman
Jaxon Prior
Deven Robertson

Carter Michael
Henry Smith

Harry Sharp
Kai Lohmann
James Tunstill

Darcy Wilmot
Bruce Reville

I think Rayners spot could be put under some pressure. Not because he isn't good but because the guys I have above him are such locks that he is one of the only ones who the younger guys can realistically put under pressure at this point.
I expect Dev will play the majority of the season. I am just not sure where. GF aside the club must have made some promises to keep him around rather than going back to WCE for a boat load more money. Where he plays though? I'm not sure. We know he can play as a defensive forward or as an inside mid, he has been used as a wing but our other options on the wing are better by foot.
Kai will be looking to put pressure on Linc and Rayners spot.
Sharp needs to show a decent amount of improvement to usurp Ah Chee, Berry, Fletcher or McCluggage for a spot on the wing. Ah Chee is the most vulnerable I see of that lot but he is miles ahead of Sharp as a footballer.
Prior for a HBF or wing spot again but unless one of Wilmot or McKenna is moved to a wing, I don't see that happening without injuries.

18-21
Shadeau Brain
Jaspa Fletcher
Will Ashcroft

Zane Zakostelsky
Reece Torrent
Logan Morris
Luke Lloyd


Will and Jaspa are lock IMO. Time will tell on the others. If we are lucky we might have a dark horse to push into the team by mid season and cement their spot.

2023 Grand Final Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Darcy Gardiner
HB: Conor McKenna Ryan Lester Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Dayne Zorko
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Jaspa Fletcher
Darcy Wilmot Jarryd Lyons (sub)

Possible 2024 Finals Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Tom Doedee
HB: Conor McKenna Jack Payne Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Jaspa Fletcher
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Will Ashcroft
Darcy Wilmot Dayne Zorko (sub)

The easiest changes are that Gardiner and Lester come out for Payne and Doedee. That immediately will add some strength to our backline. Ashcroft comes straight in for Lyons who goes out and Zorko goes to the sub role.
I see Fletcher becoming one of our full time wings next season. It will be his second year, and he will have his first full pre-season under his belt.
Clugg and Berry probably swap around, though I am not a huge fan of having Clugg and Neale in the same rotation. It does make us a bit one speed IMO. Dev could be used in Dunks' role which would allow Dunks.
We have 5 or 6 guys in that orange bracket that will be looking to push some of the guys in the yellow section out. No surprises that it is really only HFF and Wings that could be up for grabs.


Left field moves that could give things a shake up:
Starce to a wing or in the midfield.
I doubt it happens because he is arguably the #1 small to mid lockdown defender in the comp but you never know. He is quick, has a great gas tank and plenty of experience. His disposal can let him down at times but I don't think I have seen him take a kick that isn't under pressure.
Fletcher to inside mid instead of on a wing.
Plenty of athleticism and a proper preseason could see him given the Ashcroft role on the inside. He is probably the only one of our mid/wings with the skills and athleticism to carry out that role as well as Will did. I think we can all see him on the inside in the future but is the future earlier than we expected while we wait for Will? Fletcher is only going to improve from here on.

Where do we need to improve?
I still think our run, in particular our defensive run could improve. Going forward we are the most dangerous team in the comp. A more even midfield spread and not relying on Neale to win the ball would make us more unpredictable at stoppages. More goals from our midfield would always be handy.

Although we only lost by 4 points at the GF I felt that we were at least a 3 goal worse team on the day. Our accuracy kept us in it and we came ever so close to stealing the game.
 
Just wanting to get some opinions on what others think may happen during the year next year in regards to our best 23.

I've grouped the team by ages to get a good idea of what our age profile is like and then put them into colour groups for where I think they may sit in the squad.

Green = players who will keep their spot in the 22 unless injured.
Suggest Yellow to Blue = first 22 players whos automatic selection could be under pressure
Orange = players who could lock down automatic selection with some improvement.
Red = players who only get a game through injuries. This can be because of age, their position or that they need to show a lot of improvement to get a game.
Purple = unknown draftees. It's unlikely they will get a run of games.

Over 30's
Dayne Zorko
Jarryd Lyons
Ryan Lester

Lachie Neale
Darcy Fort
Lincoln McCarthy

Going into 2023 our age profile is pretty good. We have 6 players over 30, Lachie Neale is the only irreplaceable player in that group. McCarthy is very handy but not irreplaceable.
Zorko had some good games last year but IMO struggled a little bit to get up week after week. I love him as the 23rd man though. He could be a serious impact player for a quarter.

26-30
Joe Daniher
Charlie Cameron
Oscar McInerney

Darcy Gardiner
Conor McKenna
Harris Andrews
Josh Dunkley

Darragh Joyce
Eric Hipwood
Callum Ah Chee
Jarrod Berry

Hugh McCluggage
Tom Doedee

Brandon Ryan

No Suprises that the majority of the guys in this age group are locks. Doedee still needs to come back from his injury but I am confident once fit and healthy he becomes an automatic selection.
Cal Ah Chee's position could be under threat on a wing/HFF, not because he isn't a quality player but because we have a lot of talent looking to push into those positions.
Jarrod Berry is an interesting case. He should be an inside bull but his shoulder issues are letting that side of his game down. He does have an excellent mix of attributes for a winger. At 6'4 he towers over most wingers and should be a good get out of trouble target. He runs all day, has decent albeit not great pace and is generally a good user of the ball. His problem like Ah Chee is that a good chunk of our up and coming talent is looking to break into his main position. I don't see him being dropped but with the arrival of Fletcher last year, Ashcroft to come back, Clugg potentially being pushed back out to the wing and some of our HBFs having attributes to push up to a wing. His lack of versatility could count against him.

21-25
Brandon Starcevich
Noah Answerth
Zac Bailey
Jack Payne

Cam Rayner
James Madden
Keidean Coleman
Jaxon Prior
Deven Robertson

Carter Michael
Henry Smith

Harry Sharp
Kai Lohmann
James Tunstill

Darcy Wilmot
Bruce Reville

I think Rayners spot could be put under some pressure. Not because he isn't good but because the guys I have above him are such locks that he is one of the only ones who the younger guys can realistically put under pressure at this point.
I expect Dev will play the majority of the season. I am just not sure where. GF aside the club must have made some promises to keep him around rather than going back to WCE for a boat load more money. Where he plays though? I'm not sure. We know he can play as a defensive forward or as an inside mid, he has been used as a wing but our other options on the wing are better by foot.
Kai will be looking to put pressure on Linc and Rayners spot.
Sharp needs to show a decent amount of improvement to usurp Ah Chee, Berry, Fletcher or McCluggage for a spot on the wing. Ah Chee is the most vulnerable I see of that lot but he is miles ahead of Sharp as a footballer.
Prior for a HBF or wing spot again but unless one of Wilmot or McKenna is moved to a wing, I don't see that happening without injuries.

18-21
Shadeau Brain
Jaspa Fletcher
Will Ashcroft

Zane Zakostelsky
Reece Torrent
Logan Morris
Luke Lloyd


Will and Jaspa are lock IMO. Time will tell on the others. If we are lucky we might have a dark horse to push into the team by mid season and cement their spot.

2023 Grand Final Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Darcy Gardiner
HB: Conor McKenna Ryan Lester Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Dayne Zorko
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Jaspa Fletcher
Darcy Wilmot Jarryd Lyons (sub)

Possible 2024 Finals Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Tom Doedee
HB: Conor McKenna Jack Payne Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Jaspa Fletcher
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Will Ashcroft
Darcy Wilmot Dayne Zorko (sub)

The easiest changes are that Gardiner and Lester come out for Payne and Doedee. That immediately will add some strength to our backline. Ashcroft comes straight in for Lyons who goes out and Zorko goes to the sub role.
I see Fletcher becoming one of our full time wings next season. It will be his second year, and he will have his first full pre-season under his belt.
Clugg and Berry probably swap around, though I am not a huge fan of having Clugg and Neale in the same rotation. It does make us a bit one speed IMO. Dev could be used in Dunks' role which would allow Dunks.
We have 5 or 6 guys in that orange bracket that will be looking to push some of the guys in the yellow section out. No surprises that it is really only HFF and Wings that could be up for grabs.


Left field moves that could give things a shake up:
Starce to a wing or in the midfield.
I doubt it happens because he is arguably the #1 small to mid lockdown defender in the comp but you never know. He is quick, has a great gas tank and plenty of experience. His disposal can let him down at times but I don't think I have seen him take a kick that isn't under pressure.
Fletcher to inside mid instead of on a wing.
Plenty of athleticism and a proper preseason could see him given the Ashcroft role on the inside. He is probably the only one of our mid/wings with the skills and athleticism to carry out that role as well as Will did. I think we can all see him on the inside in the future but is the future earlier than we expected while we wait for Will? Fletcher is only going to improve from here on.

Where do we need to improve?
I still think our run, in particular our defensive run could improve. Going forward we are the most dangerous team in the comp. A more even midfield spread and not relying on Neale to win the ball would make us more unpredictable at stoppages. More goals from our midfield would always be handy.

Although we only lost by 4 points at the GF I felt that we were at least a 3 goal worse team on the day. Our accuracy kept us in it and we came ever so close to stealing the game.
You have gone to a lot of effort breaking up the players into different age/abilities etc. Thanks for that.
However, it is very hard to make out the players names in Yellow.
Can i suggest a change to Blue to make it easier to read.
If you click on the "B" bold button first before going to the color icon it will give you a darker color if you wish.
I have changed Zorko and McCarthy to blue in the reply above to show the difference.
A bolded yellow is still a little hard to read and it then clashes a bit with the orange.

1703744886271.png
 
You have gone to a lot of effort breaking up the players into different age/abilities etc. Thanks for that.
However, it is very hard to make out the players names in Yellow.
Can i suggest a change to Blue to make it easier to read.
If you click on the "B" bold button first before going to the color icon it will give you a darker color if you wish.
I have changed Zorko and McCarthy to blue in the reply above to show the difference.
A bolded yellow is still a little hard to read and it then clashes a bit with the orange.

View attachment 1878970
Looks fantastic "as is" in dark mode. Recommend. Easier on your eyes 🙂
 

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Looks fantastic "as is" in dark mode. Recommend. Easier on your eyes 🙂
Not to me but it is up to p4p1
To get my dark mode yellow p4p1 would have to use the bottom yellow not the top yellow that was used.
As can be seen a dark bolded yellow is hard to see the difference with their orange.
 
Possible 2024 Finals Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Tom Doedee
HB: Conor McKenna Jack Payne Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Jaspa Fletcher
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Will Ashcroft
Darcy Wilmot Dayne Zorko (sub)

Using this team as a foundation. I think the three spots that may be up for grabs are..Zorko (age/body/form dependent), Linc (whether someone like Kai pushes for his spot) and Dev (on the fringe based on 2023 form but has some low hanging fruit that could propel him in 2024, a wait and see. If the improvement doesn't come might be in and out again).

Before I get flamed. I am a big fan of Linc, Zorko and Dev, love their work.

The only other qualifier is if the AFL gets rid of the sub and increases the bench to 5. I think if they do, we will play 2 rucks with Fort.
 
Possible 2024 Finals Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Tom Doedee
HB: Conor McKenna Jack Payne Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Jaspa Fletcher
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Will Ashcroft
Darcy Wilmot Dayne Zorko (sub)

Using this team as a foundation. I think the three spots that may be up for grabs are..Zorko (age/body/form dependent), Linc (whether someone like Kai pushes for his spot) and Dev (on the fringe based on 2023 form but has some low hanging fruit that could propel him in 2024, a wait and see. If the improvement doesn't come might be in and out again).

Before I get flamed. I am a big fan of Linc, Zorko and Dev, love their work.

The only other qualifier is if the AFL gets rid of the sub and increases the bench to 5. I think if they do, we will play 2 rucks with Fort.
I still don’t see AhChee as a lock.
 
I dont see Dev as a lock...in fact, unless he improves significantly I can see him being overtaken by several other players who have better disposal and decision making.
i dont see either of dev or ah chee as cemented b22. if i had to say the players from the grand final team most at risk of being pushed out of this year, its zorko, lester, ah chee, dev and lyons

what i will say dev as in his favour is that hes not afraid to do the crap jobs. very reliable when told to be defensively accountable and quick + strong enough to do the assignment. if he could play the same role willem drew does at port for our midfield it could free dunkley up to be a more threatening midfielder. we saw at footscray he has no problems racking the ball up and getting clearances when given the opportunity. whilst we're waiting for ashcroft to return robertson has a good oppurtunity to push for selection and show his capabilities in this defensive midfielder role
 
I think Ah Chee's versatility is goes a long way to making him a lock. He can be taken over but with a good injury free run of games I think he can become a lock. Let's not forget how good he was at times last year, despite having an injury hampered season. So fingers crossed for him and for us.

I agree on Dev, definitely not a lock, though as I said I expect him to get a lot of game time and he could probably fill Dunkleys role, allowing Dunks to be even more of a weapon for us. It is going to be a make or break season for some of our younger players.
 
I dont see Dev as a lock...in fact, unless he improves significantly I can see him being overtaken by several other players who have better disposal and decision making.
I agree that Dev has some work to do to keep his spot.
But he is a role player in a top team so his place will always come under question like AhChee imo.
But from Elixur’s starting line up I would definitely have Linc in the starting 18 over AhChee, is what I was saying in around about way.
 
I think Ah Chee's versatility is goes a long way to making him a lock. He can be taken over but with a good injury free run of games I think he can become a lock. Let's not forget how good he was at times last year, despite having an injury hampered season. So fingers crossed for him and for us.

I agree on Dev, definitely not a lock, though as I said I expect him to get a lot of game time and he could probably fill Dunkleys role, allowing Dunks to be even more of a weapon for us. It is going to be a make or break season for some of our younger players.
I think that AhChee’s form tailed off the longer he was in the team.
I personally think that he is a good one to keep motivated by sending him back on occasions.
 
Ah Chee is an important versatile bottom 6 role player for us. I think his form can become inconsistent as a result of moving around quite a bit.

He also had concussion/injury issues in the back end of last season if I’m not mistaken.
 
I understand that there is more to a players worth than just picking out one bad stat from his games.
But in my opinion one of the things Dev needs to fix is his meters gained average.
Is Dev unloading his handball disposals regularly out the back?
Is he kicking sideways or backwards a lot as a safer option?

His career kick to handball ratio is 5.6 to 5.5 (last season 4.4-4.6) so he is not over handballing but needs to turn that around.
The best way to fix this average is for him to get more possessions and increase his kicking ratio.
Dev disposal numbers in 2023 for his 11 full games: 6 (R1), 19, 15, 7, 15, 10, 12, 13, 7, 11, 13 (GF). = Average of 11.6 disposals.
If he wants to play regular midfield in Ashcrofts absence he needs to get that disposal average up to 15 with a ratio around 9 - 6.

Dev's meters gained season averages with games played in brackets. The * indicates sub games included.
68 (1), 135.5 (16), 124.9 (8*), 106.8 (16*) The 106.8 increases to 136.7 when excluding the sub games.

Below meters gained figures for the bottom 8 ranked AFL midfielders that played 11 games or more.
Dev ranks 179 out of 181.
Even using Devs 136.7 meters gained (excluding the sub games) he would still be in the bottom 8
Below figures taken from footywire

1703809846966.png

As a comparison the Lions top three ranked average meters gained players along with the number 1 ranked player.

Rank 01 Errol Gulden 553.6 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 14.9 to 6.1 (last season 19.3 to 7.5)
Rank 58 McCluggage 346.3 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 12.9 to 8.5
Rank 59 Dayne Zorko 341.5 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 13.7 to 7.3
Rank 66 Zac Bailey 328.1 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 9.7 to 6.0

Below the bottom 6 ranked average meters gained Lions players with 11 plus game in 2023.

1703812414372.png
When i look at all AFL players with 11 plus games Dev is ranked 442 of 461
 
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I think that AhChee’s form tailed off the longer he was in the team.
I personally think that he is a good one to keep motivated by sending him back on occasions.
That could be down to lack of match fitness after coming back from injuries. I'm a big believer of there being nothing that replaces proper competition, especially in contact sports. You can do the running etc but taking the knocks and hits and not being bruised and battered and sore can only be done by playing.
 
Just wanting to get some opinions on what others think may happen during the year next year in regards to our best 23.

I've grouped the team by ages to get a good idea of what our age profile is like and then put them into colour groups for where I think they may sit in the squad.

Green = players who will keep their spot in the 22 unless injured.
Yellow = first 22 players whos automatic selection could be under pressure
Orange = players who could lock down automatic selection with some improvement.
Red = players who only get a game through injuries. This can be because of age, their position or that they need to show a lot of improvement to get a game.
Purple = unknown draftees. It's unlikely they will get a run of games.

Over 30's
Dayne Zorko
Jarryd Lyons
Ryan Lester

Lachie Neale
Darcy Fort
Lincoln McCarthy

Going into 2023 our age profile is pretty good. We have 6 players over 30, Lachie Neale is the only irreplaceable player in that group. McCarthy is very handy but not irreplaceable.
Zorko had some good games last year but IMO struggled a little bit to get up week after week. I love him as the 23rd man though. He could be a serious impact player for a quarter.

26-30
Joe Daniher
Charlie Cameron
Oscar McInerney

Darcy Gardiner
Conor McKenna
Harris Andrews
Josh Dunkley

Darragh Joyce
Eric Hipwood
Callum Ah Chee
Jarrod Berry

Hugh McCluggage
Tom Doedee

Brandon Ryan

No Suprises that the majority of the guys in this age group are locks. Doedee still needs to come back from his injury but I am confident once fit and healthy he becomes an automatic selection.
Cal Ah Chee's position could be under threat on a wing/HFF, not because he isn't a quality player but because we have a lot of talent looking to push into those positions.
Jarrod Berry is an interesting case. He should be an inside bull but his shoulder issues are letting that side of his game down. He does have an excellent mix of attributes for a winger. At 6'4 he towers over most wingers and should be a good get out of trouble target. He runs all day, has decent albeit not great pace and is generally a good user of the ball. His problem like Ah Chee is that a good chunk of our up and coming talent is looking to break into his main position. I don't see him being dropped but with the arrival of Fletcher last year, Ashcroft to come back, Clugg potentially being pushed back out to the wing and some of our HBFs having attributes to push up to a wing. His lack of versatility could count against him.

21-25
Brandon Starcevich
Noah Answerth
Zac Bailey
Jack Payne

Cam Rayner
James Madden
Keidean Coleman
Jaxon Prior
Deven Robertson

Carter Michael
Henry Smith

Harry Sharp
Kai Lohmann
James Tunstill

Darcy Wilmot
Bruce Reville

I think Rayners spot could be put under some pressure. Not because he isn't good but because the guys I have above him are such locks that he is one of the only ones who the younger guys can realistically put under pressure at this point.
I expect Dev will play the majority of the season. I am just not sure where. GF aside the club must have made some promises to keep him around rather than going back to WCE for a boat load more money. Where he plays though? I'm not sure. We know he can play as a defensive forward or as an inside mid, he has been used as a wing but our other options on the wing are better by foot.
Kai will be looking to put pressure on Linc and Rayners spot.
Sharp needs to show a decent amount of improvement to usurp Ah Chee, Berry, Fletcher or McCluggage for a spot on the wing. Ah Chee is the most vulnerable I see of that lot but he is miles ahead of Sharp as a footballer.
Prior for a HBF or wing spot again but unless one of Wilmot or McKenna is moved to a wing, I don't see that happening without injuries.

18-21
Shadeau Brain
Jaspa Fletcher
Will Ashcroft

Zane Zakostelsky
Reece Torrent
Logan Morris
Luke Lloyd


Will and Jaspa are lock IMO. Time will tell on the others. If we are lucky we might have a dark horse to push into the team by mid season and cement their spot.

2023 Grand Final Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Darcy Gardiner
HB: Conor McKenna Ryan Lester Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Dayne Zorko
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Jaspa Fletcher
Darcy Wilmot Jarryd Lyons (sub)

Possible 2024 Finals Team
B: Brandon Starcevich Harris Andrews Tom Doedee
HB: Conor McKenna Jack Payne Keidean Coleman
C: Hugh McCluggage Josh Dunkley Jaspa Fletcher
HF: Charlie Cameron Eric Hipwood Callum Ah Chee
F: Cameron Rayner Joe Daniher Zac Bailey
Foll: Oscar McInerney Lachie Neale Jarrod Berry
Int: Deven Robertson Lincoln McCarthy Will Ashcroft
Darcy Wilmot Dayne Zorko (sub)

The easiest changes are that Gardiner and Lester come out for Payne and Doedee. That immediately will add some strength to our backline. Ashcroft comes straight in for Lyons who goes out and Zorko goes to the sub role.
I see Fletcher becoming one of our full time wings next season. It will be his second year, and he will have his first full pre-season under his belt.
Clugg and Berry probably swap around, though I am not a huge fan of having Clugg and Neale in the same rotation. It does make us a bit one speed IMO. Dev could be used in Dunks' role which would allow Dunks.
We have 5 or 6 guys in that orange bracket that will be looking to push some of the guys in the yellow section out. No surprises that it is really only HFF and Wings that could be up for grabs.


Left field moves that could give things a shake up:
Starce to a wing or in the midfield.
I doubt it happens because he is arguably the #1 small to mid lockdown defender in the comp but you never know. He is quick, has a great gas tank and plenty of experience. His disposal can let him down at times but I don't think I have seen him take a kick that isn't under pressure.
Fletcher to inside mid instead of on a wing.
Plenty of athleticism and a proper preseason could see him given the Ashcroft role on the inside. He is probably the only one of our mid/wings with the skills and athleticism to carry out that role as well as Will did. I think we can all see him on the inside in the future but is the future earlier than we expected while we wait for Will? Fletcher is only going to improve from here on.

Where do we need to improve?
I still think our run, in particular our defensive run could improve. Going forward we are the most dangerous team in the comp. A more even midfield spread and not relying on Neale to win the ball would make us more unpredictable at stoppages. More goals from our midfield would always be handy.

Although we only lost by 4 points at the GF I felt that we were at least a 3 goal worse team on the day. Our accuracy kept us in it and we came ever so close to stealing the game.
There’s no way Doedee is an automatic lock when he returns.

Let’s see how he comes back from his rehab and how he fits into the team. I agree we generally shoehorn our big name recruits into the top team asap, but we all thought Gunston was an automatic lock coming in as well.
 
There’s no way Doedee is an automatic lock when he returns.

Let’s see how he comes back from his rehab and how he fits into the team. I agree we generally shoehorn our big name recruits into the top team asap, but we all thought Gunston was an automatic lock coming in as well.

I think we’ve seen Fagan likes to play players he has brought to the club. He will be in the seniors as soon as he is ready and I reckon they’ll give him the entire season.
 
There’s no way Doedee is an automatic lock when he returns.

Let’s see how he comes back from his rehab and how he fits into the team. I agree we generally shoehorn our big name recruits into the top team asap, but we all thought Gunston was an automatic lock coming in as well.
As you mentioned the Lions usually play new experienced players traded from other clubs.
When Doedee has been declared fit to play, i think he comes straight in. I doubt they play him in the VFL.
His TOG for the past 3 years: 89%, 94% and last year 87%.
I think the club just manage that time to 70-80% rather than play VFL.

If they play him VFL that's fine.
Hippy and Rayner came straight back into the AFL after their ACL's.

Regarding Gunston he was selected from round 1. It was only later in the season he was dropped.
 
There’s no way Doedee is an automatic lock when he returns.

Let’s see how he comes back from his rehab and how he fits into the team. I agree we generally shoehorn our big name recruits into the top team asap, but we all thought Gunston was an automatic lock coming in as well.
gunston was a lock until he selflessly dropped himself
 
I dont see Dev as a lock...in fact, unless he improves significantly I can see him being overtaken by several other players who have better disposal and decision making.

Dev should've taken that juicy 4 year contract from West Coast.
It was a mistake by him from career development perspective.
 
Dev should've taken that juicy 4 year contract from West Coast.
It was a mistake by him from career development perspective.

Might have got extra year or two out of his career but not many

Issue at west coast is he’ll never be in the first string midfield because of all the young talent they have
 
I understand that there is more to a players worth than just picking out one bad stat from his games.
But in my opinion one of the things Dev needs to fix is his meters gained average.
Is Dev unloading his handball disposals regularly out the back?
Is he kicking sideways or backwards a lot as a safer option?

His career kick to handball ratio is 5.6 to 5.5 (last season 4.4-4.6) so he is not over handballing but needs to turn that around.
The best way to fix this average is for him to get more possessions and increase his kicking ratio.
Dev disposal numbers in 2023 for his 11 full games: 6 (R1), 19, 15, 7, 15, 10, 12, 13, 7, 11, 13 (GF). = Average of 11.6 disposals.
If he wants to play regular midfield in Ashcrofts absence he needs to get that disposal average up to 15 with a ratio around 9 - 6.

Dev's meters gained season averages with games played in brackets. The * indicates sub games included.
68 (1), 135.5 (16), 124.9 (8*), 106.8 (16*) The 106.8 increases to 136.7 when excluding the sub games.

Below meters gained figures for the bottom 8 ranked AFL midfielders that played 11 games or more.
Dev ranks 179 out of 181.
Even using Devs 136.7 meters gained (excluding the sub games) he would still be in the bottom 8
Below figures taken from footywire

View attachment 1879166

As a comparison the Lions top three ranked average meters gained players along with the number 1 ranked player.

Rank 01 Errol Gulden 553.6 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 14.9 to 6.1 (last season 19.3 to 7.5)
Rank 58 McCluggage 346.3 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 12.9 to 8.5
Rank 59 Dayne Zorko 341.5 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 13.7 to 7.3
Rank 66 Zac Bailey 328.1 meters gained. Kick to handball career average 9.7 to 6.0

Below the bottom 6 ranked average meters gained Lions players with 11 plus game in 2023.

View attachment 1879178
When i look at all AFL players with 11 plus games Dev is ranked 442 of 461
I believe this is largely due to the role Dev plays in the team, and where he's playing on the ground. He plays mostly as a defensive forward, whose role is to support the midfield.

He doesn't play a high possession game, and most of his possessions are contested, and most likely in the forward half, so he doesn't have a lot of the field in front of him to rack up meters from his limited possessions. Nor do team mates look for him as an option, or good user of the ball.
 
I believe this is largely due to the role Dev plays in the team, and where he's playing on the ground. He plays mostly as a defensive forward, whose role is to support the midfield.

He doesn't play a high possession game, and most of his possessions are contested, and most likely in the forward half, so he doesn't have a lot of the field in front of him to rack up meters from his limited possessions. Nor do team mates look for him as an option, or good user of the ball.
It may be because of his role that he is a low possession player like Ah Chee.
I still think whatever role he is given he somehow has to get more of the ball.
An extra 4/5 possessions per game should be achievable for him if he wants to hold his spot.
In the modern game it is always a bit hard to know where fringe players like Dev actually play unless your sole aim is to watch them at the game.
I always thought he was about 50/50 midfield/forward but that is just a guess on my part.
For something to do i had a look at Dev's heat maps for when he played regular AFL games that being from round 13.
I wanted to see where he was getting his possessions. That does not really tell you where he actually played though.
Just looking at the totals.
Dev had 22 possessions inside forward 50 and 114 outside that area. He really should be more than his average 106 meters gained.


RoundDefense I50Centre SquareBetween The 50 Arcs
Excluding Centre Square
Forward I50
134373
140376
150322
1613102
170343
18 Subbed On2020
21 Subbed On0020
221181
230780
RoundDefense I50Centre Square Between The 50 Arcs
Excluding Centre Square
Forward I50
241150
25 QF Subbed Off1232
27 PF2180
28 GF1443
Totals13317022
 
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Might have got extra year or two out of his career but not many

Issue at west coast is he’ll never be in the first string midfield because of all the young talent they have

Would've had a Ben Keays like trajectory over there. He would’ve got Neale's role at West Coast for first year or two due to his more mature body. If he managed to settle in that role as an elite extractor/ release player - it would’ve given him a better run for next few years.
 
Dev should've taken that juicy 4 year contract from West Coast.
It was a mistake by him from career development perspective.
Disagree. All AFL players have dream of playing and winning a flag as their #1 driven reason for playing the game. Sure circumstances for some just don't allow that to happen but for players like Dev, in his eyes, it's a real chance to happen and thats why he stayed. (in my opinion.) WCE are a long long way away from playing finals again let alone winning a flag.
 
Disagree. All AFL players have dream of playing and winning a flag as their #1 driven reason for playing the game. Sure circumstances for some just don't allow that to happen but for players like Dev, in his eyes, it's a real chance to happen and thats why he stayed. (in my opinion.) WCE are a long long way away from playing finals again let alone winning a flag.

I don't disagree with your view but Dev keeping his spot in best 22 is going to be the challenge here.
 

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