Opinion Flag or flop?

iameviljez

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So many times in the last 11 years the (arguably) best-performed team over the H&A season just did not get the job done.

2018 - Best team, Richmond. Winner, West Coast.
2017 - Best team, Adelaide. Winner, Richmond.
2016 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Dogs.
2014 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Hawks.
2012 - Best team, Hawthorn. Winner, Sydney.
2011 - Best team, Collingwood. Winner, us.
2009 - Best team, StKilda. Winner, us.
2008 - Best team, us. Result: Shaddup.

So, I am not counting chickens.
 

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CatRiot

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I still think our wild card going into the Finals will be Nakia Cockatoo. They are keeping him on ice for the season end.
I just don't know who you would even take out of the side if he did get some form.
 

Stan The Caddy

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So many times in the last 11 years the (arguably) best-performed team over the H&A season just did not get the job done.

2018 - Best team, Richmond. Winner, West Coast.
2017 - Best team, Adelaide. Winner, Richmond.
2016 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Dogs.
2014 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Hawks.
2012 - Best team, Hawthorn. Winner, Sydney.
2011 - Best team, Collingwood. Winner, us.
2009 - Best team, StKilda. Winner, us.
2008 - Best team, us. Result: Shaddup.

So, I am not counting chickens.
3000 of them would kill a fox though!
 

iameviljez

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I still think our wild card going into the Finals will be Nakia Cockatoo. They are keeping him on ice for the season end.
I just don't know who you would even take out of the side if he did get some form.
Rohan has had a fairly lean five weeks, but even then... Cockatoo would need to go very, very, very well.
 

pollywaffle

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So many times in the last 11 years the (arguably) best-performed team over the H&A season just did not get the job done.
2018 - Best team, Richmond. Winner, West Coast.
2017 - Best team, Adelaide. Winner, Richmond.
2016 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Dogs.
2014 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Hawks.
2012 - Best team, Hawthorn. Winner, Sydney.
2011 - Best team, Collingwood. Winner, us.
2009 - Best team, StKilda. Winner, us.
2008 - Best team, us. Result: Shaddup.
So, I am not counting chickens.
Scary. Way to clear the room!
 

barmy44

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Scary. Way to clear the room!
i think it makes sense, in a probability sense. out of all 8 teams in the finals, the best team has the highest individual chance, when assessed against the chances of the other 7 teams individually... but in most years, the probability of the best team winning would be lower than the combined chance of one of the other 7 teams winning.
 
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pollywaffle

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i think it makes sense, in a probability sense. out of all 8 teams in the finals, the best team has the highest individual chance, when assessed against the chances of the other 7 teams individually... but in most years, the probability of the best team winning would be lower than the combined chance of one of the other 7 teams winning.
Are you Data from StarTrek?
 

barmy44

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Are you Data from StarTrek?
ive never seen star trek, so i cant say for sure. but as far as i know, weve never been photographed together either, so...

i do find probability almost impossible to argue against though, and it does fascinate me.

if youre comfortably the best team in the league, team 1, you might go into the finals with... a 40% likelihood of winning it all? if you ask the question 'which team is most likely to win it?' the correct answer is team 1. if the question is 'are team 1 most likely to win it all?' the answer is no, one of teams 2-8 are more likley to win it.

if youre the best team in it, you have to beat at least 3 good teams in a row to win it all. but if youre the best team in it, you only have to be beaten once to not win it.

and most years, losing at least once is more likely than winning 3 times in a row.
 

Max Milburn

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So many times in the last 11 years the (arguably) best-performed team over the H&A season just did not get the job done.

2018 - Best team, Richmond. Winner, West Coast.
2017 - Best team, Adelaide. Winner, Richmond.
2016 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Dogs.
2014 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Hawks.
2012 - Best team, Hawthorn. Winner, Sydney.
2011 - Best team, Collingwood. Winner, us.
2009 - Best team, StKilda. Winner, us.
2008 - Best team, us. Result: Shaddup.

So, I am not counting chickens.
Meh. 2011 and 2009, both incorrect.
 

iameviljez

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Meh. 2011 and 2009, both incorrect.
Really? I don't think you could mount a case that we were better in the H&A series in either year, particularly 2009 where StKilda were two games and over 25% clear.

That Saints side won 19 games on the spin, and only lost two, both by under a kick.
 

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barmy44

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Meh. 2011 and 2009, both incorrect.
2011 is an interesting one... id say a comparison of collingwood versus the comp and geelong versus the comp, collingwood come out well on top as the better team. collingwood versus geelong as a direct comparison, results and statistics from those results geelong came out on top quite easily.

geelong v collingwood:

game 1: 65-62; i50 - +20 geelong
game 2: 149-53; i50 - +33 geelong
game 3: 119 - 81; i50 - +6 geelong.

so in the three games - 333 - 196; i50 - +59 geelong; % of 169 in favour of geelong.

overall: virtually identical 22-3 records, both around 157%, collingwood slightly better % i think.

and yet, without geelong in the comp, collingwood likely win it all that year undefeated.

i think the saints were the better side in 2009, though.

sport can be cruel.
 

Cursed_Cat

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Really? I don't think you could mount a case that we were better in the H&A series in either year, particularly 2009 where StKilda were two games and over 25% clear.
agree on 2009; Saints beat us in the H&A for good measure too - 2011 perhaps a little cloudier given the shellacking we gave the Pies in Rd 22, but agree that Collingwood looked very very threatening for most of that year on the back of their 2010 flag.
 

year of the cat

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The friggin week off after the last home and away round unfortunately sees our advantage diminish. The AFL have ****** over the top teams by doing this. Still, if we are good enough we'll win it. Just a bit more difficult now. We now know that our best 22-25 are very, very competitive. We can't though afford to lose 2-3 players like the Pies or GWS and remain as competitive as both those two clubs. IF, we can get to the last day with a fit, healthy list, then, yes, we can and should go all the way. I think this year we are the best team in the comp.
 

iameviljez

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agree on 2009; Saints beat us in the H&A for good measure too - 2011 perhaps a little cloudier given the shellacking we gave the Pies in Rd 22, but agree that Collingwood looked very very threatening for most of that year on the back of their 2010 flag.
Pies were still the favourites leading into that finals series IIRC; it was only really in the last five weeks that they ran out of gas.
 

year of the cat

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Really? I don't think you could mount a case that we were better in the H&A series in either year, particularly 2009 where StKilda were two games and over 25% clear.

That Saints side won 19 games on the spin, and only lost two, both by under a kick.
2009 in some way made up for 2008. We should have won 2008 but in 2009 the Saints were the better team and would rue a wasteful 2nd 1/4 in that GF.
 

CatRiot

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So many times in the last 11 years the (arguably) best-performed team over the H&A season just did not get the job done.

2018 - Best team, Richmond. Winner, West Coast.
2017 - Best team, Adelaide. Winner, Richmond.
2016 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Dogs.
2014 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Hawks.
2012 - Best team, Hawthorn. Winner, Sydney.
2011 - Best team, Collingwood. Winner, us.
2009 - Best team, StKilda. Winner, us.
2008 - Best team, us. Result: Shaddup.

So, I am not counting chickens.
I guess you're saying Minor Premiers rather than Best team of H&A season. As I would argue despite Cats being 2nd in 2011 at the end of H&A season, we did beat Collingwood both games in the H&A, and I would say we were the better team of the H&A season, just not the Minor Premiers. If you know what I mean.
 

iameviljez

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and yet, without geelong in the comp, collingwood likely win it all that year undefeated.
IIRC Collingwood's only achilles heel that year was that they didn't bat all that deeply through the middle. They had three absolute stars - Daisy, Pendles and Swan - but not so much underneath (though losing Beams really hurt them). They relied a lot on winning the footy at half-back through Lumumba, Davis and Shaw - but were gettable if you could get on top in midfield.

We managed to shut out Swan (what a way to sign off, Cameron Ling), and just managed to wear out the other two with weight of numbers. I don't think any other side batted deeply enough through the middle that year to win.
 

barmy44

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IIRC Collingwood's only achilles heel that year was that they didn't bat all that deeply through the middle. They had three absolute stars - Daisy, Pendles and Swan - but not so much underneath (though losing Beams really hurt them). They relied a lot on winning the footy at half-back through Lumumba, Davis and Shaw - but were gettable if you could get on top in midfield.

We managed to shut out Swan (what a way to sign off, Cameron Ling), and just managed to wear out the other two with weight of numbers. I don't think any other side batted deeply enough through the middle that year to win.
having a team that could 'coach itself' didnt hurt, either :D

(but in all seriousness, not being overly tactically minded myself, the above seems a good analysis...)
 

iameviljez

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I guess you're saying Minor Premiers rather than Best team of H&A season. As I would argue despite Cats being 2nd in 2011 at the end of H&A season, we did beat Collingwood both games in the H&A, and I would say we were the better team of the H&A season, just not the Minor Premiers. If you know what I mean.
No, I mean best team in the H&A season, or else I'd include Hawthorn 2015.

But, with Collingwood being a game clear plus %, and beating every team in the league bar us with whom they had a specific problem, I'd say they were better over the first 22 weeks.

The one thing that makes it harder to measure is that we did rest players in midyear once we knew we were safe in the top 2.
 

BlakeyNoFlakey

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So many times in the last 11 years the (arguably) best-performed team over the H&A season just did not get the job done.

2018 - Best team, Richmond. Winner, West Coast.
2017 - Best team, Adelaide. Winner, Richmond.
2016 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Dogs.
2014 - Best team, Sydney. Winner, Hawks.
2012 - Best team, Hawthorn. Winner, Sydney.
2011 - Best team, Collingwood. Winner, us.
2009 - Best team, StKilda. Winner, us.
2008 - Best team, us. Result: Shaddup.

So, I am not counting chickens.
Big deal, so the minor premiers don't always win the flag, but they still do sometimes too. Cherry picking years to make a case is such an internet trolly thing to do. How about we just worry about our next game and stop with the ********.
 

barmy44

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Big deal, so the minor premiers don't always win the flag, but they still do sometimes too. Cherry picking years to make a case is such an internet trolly thing to do. How about we just worry about our next game and stop with the ********.
i think the point was that you can finish clear on top, not win the flag, and it not be simply down to 'problems after the bye', 'cant play the G', or 'scott doesnt understand finals'.
 

Mr Meow

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i think it makes sense, in a probability sense. out of all 8 teams in the finals, the best team has the highest individual chance, when assessed against the chances of the other 7 teams individually... but in most years, the probability of the best team winning would be lower than the combined chance of one of the other 7 teams winning.
Exactly. It certainly doesn't argue for the fact that we would have a stronger chance if we finish anywhere below 1st. Fairly common sense that in an 8 team knockout scenario you have to be extremely dominant to have > 50% chance of being the winner. People should just be happy to be in the conversation.
 

iameviljez

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Big deal, so the minor premiers don't always win the flag, but they still do sometimes too. Cherry picking years to make a case is such an internet trolly thing to do. How about we just worry about our next game and stop with the ********.
It's relevant to the point being made in the OP, though. This assertion that at this point, it's either a flag or it's a flop - and my point is that flags are not such a given for the best side as they may appear to be in Round 12.
 

BlakeyNoFlakey

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i think the point was that you can finish clear on top, not win the flag, and it not be simply down to 'problems after the bye', 'cant play the G', or 'scott doesnt understand finals'.
Oh, I get the point, but you can also win the minor premiership and win the flag too, it's been done many times as well. That's my point. So instead of trolling to make people anxious about stupid hypotheticals, just let things unfold as they will. There's no guarantee we'll win the flag ever, that's the nature of the footy. That's why winning one is so special because it's hard to do wherever you finish in the top 8 after the H&A season. There's no easy games in finals.
 
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