Strategy Full rebuild v rebuild on the run

[magpies42]

I’m the last 5 games Pendlebury has only gone over 20 possessions twice and I wouldn’t say Sidebottom’s been huge either. They’ve played their roles but I wouldn’t say we’re relying on them anymore and I think their loss are covers by the Daicos brothers emergence. Howe also I think is covered by the emergence of Murphy. So think the core group we have to build around are De Goey, Mihocek, Crisp, Adams, Elliott, Moore, Maynard and Cameron/Grundy think they still got another 3-4 seasons before they start to fall off.

They stand up in the key moments I think is my point. You can’t buy that, and you certainly can’t expect that from inexperienced players.

 

[Chilli Con Incarnate]

We didn't rebuild really. Just got a coach with a better gameplan for our list. Plus the added mindset shake up of all the change has been good for senior players.

We might still be in a bit of trouble in 1-2 years time as we start losing the likes of Pendles, Howe, Sidey, Elliott etc.

And we still don't have a key forward!!!

 

[Gaspard]

This is such an interesting discussion. None of us expected to be looking at finals this year - we all saw draft picks as the main objective. Not any more.

What happened? The coaching style made far more difference than I ever thought it could. Players that seemed to have prospects last year have blossomed - Ginnivan, McCreery, Henry stand out. Others like Noble, Josh Daicos

7

Josh Daicos

Age

25

Ht

178cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.3

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.6

5star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.5

4star

CL

1.5

4star

D

13.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

and Quaynor have progressed as we might have hoped and more than we could have expected. The loss of Grundy has been covered. Krueger's injury has not unbalanced the forward line as one might have expected it to. Adams, Hoskin-Elliott, Elliott, Howe, Moore, De Goey, Mihocek and Crisp have held their form and haven't been injured. Nick Daicos has come in. Murphy has shown why he was persevered with. Lipinski filled a gap. Lastly, Pendlebury and to a lesser extent Sidebottom have found ways to be impactful when they needed to be without having to dominate games.

There is little margin for error here - a few injuries will trash it all. For the future we are still relying on some more of our mid level picks coming through, and being very good, not just numbers. I don't see a lot of evidence of a rebuild here, more the last hurrah of a great list that has been crippled for years by injuries that has finally got something like the best players on the park at one time.

 

[jonbe54]

We have a few players that copped cruel injury runs in their first and second year on top of the Covid penalty so there is time for those players to come good.

 

[HeathySure]

I think we got enough games into our youngsters last year who are playing in the twos this year to cover injuries in many areas.

I am a little bit scared of having an Essendon type season next year though. We will have a harder draw although we have beaten good sides whereas Essendon did not last year

 

[jonbe54]

I think we got enough games into our youngsters last year who are playing in the twos this year to cover injuries in many areas.

I am a little bit scared of having an Essendon type season next year though. We will have a harder draw although we have beaten good sides whereas Essendon did not last year

The draw is a joke if you look at ours this year considering we finished second last.

 

[Mollythedolly]

We didn't rebuild really. Just got a coach with a better gameplan for our list. Plus the added mindset shake up of all the change has been good for senior players.

We might still be in a bit of trouble in 1-2 years time as we start losing the likes of Pendles, Howe, Sidey, Elliott etc.

And we still don't have a key forward!!!

I don’t think you can lose Phillips, Treloar, Reid, Varcoe, Stevo, A2B2, Dunn, Beams, Langdon, Appleby, Broomhead, Scharenberg, and Wills like we did in 2020, replace them with kids, and think it’s anything but a rebuild. That’s all our experienced depth.

 

[Mollythedolly]

This is such an interesting discussion. None of us expected to be looking at finals this year - we all saw draft picks as the main objective. Not any more.

What happened? The coaching style made far more difference than I ever thought it could. Players that seemed to have prospects last year have blossomed - Ginnivan, McCreery, Henry stand out. Others like Noble, Josh Daicos and Quaynor have progressed as we might have hoped and more than we could have expected. The loss of Grundy has been covered. Krueger's injury has not unbalanced the forward line as one might have expected it to. Adams, Hoskin-Elliott, Elliott, Howe, Moore, De Goey, Mihocek and Crisp have held their form and haven't been injured. Nick Daicos has come in. Murphy has shown why he was persevered with. Lipinski filled a gap. Lastly, Pendlebury and to a lesser extent Sidebottom have found ways to be impactful when they needed to be without having to dominate games.

There is little margin for error here - a few injuries will trash it all. For the future we are still relying on some more of our mid level picks coming through, and being very good, not just numbers. I don't see a lot of evidence of a rebuild here, more the last hurrah of a great list that has been crippled for years by injuries that has finally got something like the best players on the park at one time.

I went into the year thinking 7-12 was our range so that’d include finals.

 

[Mollythedolly]

I think we got enough games into our youngsters last year who are playing in the twos this year to cover injuries in many areas.

I am a little bit scared of having an Essendon type season next year though. We will have a harder draw although we have beaten good sides whereas Essendon did not last year

I’m not so much worried about 2023 as I am beyond that and finding replacements for the core senior players like Pendles, Sidey, Elliott, Checkers, Adams, Howe, WHE and Cox. We’ve already lost Roughy.

 

[jmac70]

I went into the year thinking 7-12 was our range so that’d include finals.

So, all you got from that post was an opportunity to ring your own bell.

 

[well left]

I’m not so much worried about 2023 as I am beyond that and finding replacements for the core senior players like Pendles, Sidey, Elliott, Checkers, Adams, Howe, WHE and Cox. We’ve already lost Roughy.

I think we’ve found some replacements for some of these guys already in those that are now playing.

Pendles’ replacement is N Daicos
Elliott’s replacement is Ginnivan
Howe’s is Murphy as the third tall that intercepts.
WHE could be Henry.
Cox’s replacement as second ruck/ruck depth will probably be Begg.

These guys will continue to develop and step up with experience. We just need to continue to backfill those roles.

The key is to find some more midfield depth for Sidey and Adams, is it Poulter, Macrae, McInnes and Carmichael?

Who replaces Checkers down the track? Possibly our first pick this year with McStay and Kreuger assisting?

Be good to get a look at Dean to see if he can take a Roughy role.


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[jmac70]

I don’t really get the point of the article.

Each year I expect the club to select the players that give us the best chance to win. It’s the Collingwood way, and is why we have won more games and played in more grand finals than any other club.

It’s winning on the last Saturday in September which has always been our problem.

 

[Mollythedolly]

So, all you got from that post was an opportunity to ring your own bell.

Happy to go back and give it the full critique if you like but covered off the important stuff.

 

[jmac70]

Happy to go back and give it the full critique if you like but covered off the important stuff.

No thanks.

 

[Mollythedolly]

I think we’ve found some replacements for some of these guys already in those that are now playing.

Pendles’ replacement is N Daicos
Elliott’s replacement is Ginnivan
Howe’s is Murphy as the third tall that intercepts.
WHE could be Henry.
Cox’s replacement as second ruck/ruck depth will probably be Begg.

These guys will continue to develop and step up with experience. We just need to continue to backfill those roles.

The key is to find some more midfield depth for Sidey and Adams, is it Poulter, Macrae, McInnes and Carmichael?

Who replaces Checkers down the track? Possibly our first pick this year with McStay and Kreuger assisting?

Be good to get a look at Dean to see if he can take a Roughy role.


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We clearly see things differently.

Pendles - N Daicos is already that good he'll make his own name.

Elliott - You can play Ginni in his place but no way does Ginni replace Elliott. Lacks the marking, pace, and attack on the footy or player with it. Cross Ginni with McCreery and you're getting closer.

Howe - Could likely get away with Murphy but he lacks the pace to be a real like for like. While he can't replicate the marking (who can?), I'd prefer Ruscoe but he hasn't progressed this year as I'd hoped.

WHE - I have much higher hopes for Henry than as a utility. We don't currently have anyone to match WHE's marking, work rate, pace, disposal, and flexibility.

Cox - Begg essentially hasn't had a chance yet to show us what he offers anywhere but in the ruck so hard to know if he has Cox's forward capacity.

Checkers - This is closer to the role I'd foresee for Henry. Needs to up his work rate but definitely has the traits to do it. Johnson another who might offer similar. Won't worry about McStay until he's actually a Pie.

Sidey & Adams - Nobody has thrown their hats into the ring to claim either spot. I did have Josh Daicos pencilled in to replace Sidey but he's making his own name. Carmichael, Draper, Murley, Harrison, Macrae, Poulter, and McInnes all have the opportunity.

Time will tell.

 

[Finnishpie]

I went into the year thinking 7-12 was our range so that’d include finals.

I went in thinking 11-17

 

[Finnishpie]

The real test will be new year, when our veterans drop off, and the year after, when they are all retired/retiring.

Way too many of our elite talent is over 30. They've been great, but in 1-2 years time we'll face massive challenges.

 

[Gone Critical]

The real test will be new year, when our veterans drop off, and the year after, when they are all retired/retiring.

Way too many of our elite talent is over 30. They've been great, but in 1-2 years time we'll face massive challenges.

Agreed. I think Fly has been given a really difficult task with the list but has done a great job so far. Wisely he has drip fed the kids into the 22 and kept an experienced older 22 out on the park each week. We have bounced well as one or two posters predicted. Not me. Gets trickier going forward when the older talent moves on. the kids he has used, Henry , Ginny and Beau have really come on. Better than expected but they were the ones who looked most likely in 2021. The rest of the class of 20 is probably struggling a bit, 19 looks a bust and 21 has one bone fide superstar but the others are only maybes.

The likes of Kreuger, Dean and Lippa offer some talent to fill partly the age hole in our list without being stars.

A worry I do have is Fly making a rod for his own back. Raising expectations too much in your 1st year can backfire if you dont have the talent on the list to consolidate. When , in the next few seasosn our starting 22 becomes a young inexperienced one, which it almost certainly must, I hope he gets cut some slack and understanding. The press will turn in him in that situation if we drop. He seems like a coach so I hope it doesnt happen.

 

[Gaspard]

Agreed. I think Fly has been given a really difficult task with the list but has done a great job so far. Wisely he has drip fed the kids into the 22 and kept an experienced older 22 out on the park each week. We have bounced well as one or two posters predicted. Not me. Gets trickier going forward when the older talent moves on. the kids he has used, Henry , Ginny and Beau have really come on. Better than expected but they were the ones who looked most likely in 2021. The rest of the class of 20 is probably struggling a bit, 19 looks a bust and 21 has one bone fide superstar but the others are only maybes.

The likes of Kreuger, Dean and Lippa offer some talent to fill partly the age hole in our list without being stars.

A worry I do have is Fly making a rod for his own back. Raising expectations too much in your 1st year can backfire if you dont have the talent on the list to consolidate. When , in the next few seasosn our starting 22 becomes a young inexperienced one, which it almost certainly must, I hope he gets cut some slack and understanding. The press will turn in him in that situation if we drop. He seems like a coach so I hope it doesnt happen.

We all know that there is no slack for any coach, let alone a Collingwood coach. Your observation is correct, but your hope is a little on the sanguine side.

 

[loki04]

Hawks and collingwood have decided that the full rebuild is dead. It gets you nowhere. Just ask North.
But by having experience and let the kids grow around that will only help them in the short and long term, and seems to be working.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/wreck-it-ralph-how-clubs-are-beating-the-system-to-fasttrack-rise-up-the-ladder/news-story/3acc0d23273bfea685e9c2fc32a1a462

Didn't get the Collingwood Hawks Richmond Dogs Geelong WC Melbourne premiership teams nowhere though did it.

There is such thing as a dead cat bounce.

The problem I have with these articles is they are so definitive in the dismisal of a traditional rebuild (despite it being the only way that has proven regularly successful over time) and so strong on the praise for doing it on the run despite the fact no team has really pulled it off that way yet.

 

[loki04]

We all know that there is no slack for any coach, let alone a Collingwood coach. Your observation is correct, but your hope is a little on the sanguine side.

I think most people give a coach slack in first 3 years of a traditional "full rebuild". After that they want to see the team trending upwards year on year.

Subverting that process and being there abouts but never the best is dangerous way to go about it, as essentially you are wasting everyone's time and eventually the call to strip it all back and start again is made.

We are in good form and finals bound so no point talking about it now. See what fate has in store for us, I just hope we don't look back and rue the decision down the track if this finals campaign is unfruitful.

 

[loki04]

Surprised they included Hawks. Didn't they shop their quality senior players for draft picks in order to attempt a full bottoming out rebuild? But they couldn't get any deals done.

They did (not just get deals done some players refused ro leave) and have since had an about face on it probably due to the uptick this year.

 

[loki04]

What exactly have both Collingwood and Hawthorn achieved with their rebuilds on the run? The core group from 8 of the past 9 premierships has been built around a full rebuild (WC the exception). Richmond had Reiwoldt/ Martin/ Cotchin, Hawthorn Buddy/ Lewis/ Roughead/ Hodge, WB Bont/ Stringer/ Macrae and Melbourne Oliver/ Petracca/ Brayshaw/ Jackson/ Pickett.

Neither club Ralph built the article around has played a final let alone won one. I believe the type of rebuild is dictated by the list that’s inherited by the coach at the time. In the case of both Collingwood and Hawthorn there was very good quality in the senior brigade which helps in implementing a game plan which can then be built around on the run. It’s no coincidence that 4 of the best 5 in it this year all had a bunch of early picks from low finishes within the past 6 years (Geelong the exception who went the FA route with Danger, Cameron and Smith). GC will be the one to watch in this space beyond next year.

The best way to buck the full rebuild trend is to get lucky with NGA or FS’ which we’ve done pretty well out of with two superstar FS’ on the list (N Daicos and Moore) and a further two top liners (J Daicos and IQ). I would say that as an industry we’re only now starting to learn how long the full rebuild takes if you blow it up completely GC are year 5, Adelaide year 4, Carlton year 7 and Fremantle year 5. North just happen to be year 3 which is probably two years from when the wheel should start turning (if they’re lucky). WC are year 1 so I’d watch this space on Simpson to North with Walsh now involved there.

Yup and West Coast also built the 06 flag team through the draft Judd Kerr etc and traded in to fill holes with Chick and Stenglein.
Basically a traditional rebuild.

 

[loki04]

How many premierships to Hawthorn win without Hodge (pick 1), Roughhead (pick 3?) and Lewis (pick 7)

How many do Richmond win without Dustin Martin (pick 3)

Do the Bulldogs still win without Bontempelli and Macrae? (both top 5 picks)

Do Melbourne win without a shitload of high end draft picks gathered from being at the bottom of the ladder?

I think there is overwhelming evidence that finishing in the bottom 4, for at least a year or two, and picking up the next Martin/Petracca/Hodge/Franklin/Bontempelli ect is definitely worth it, and much better long term than finishing mid-table.

Richmond had 11 players drafted inside top 15 iirc.

Melbourne had 16.

Hawks had Franklin Roughead Rioli Hodge Lewis, the first 4 are genuine match winning types that can swing a teams momentum. They lost Franklin but had enough talent and system with clarkson to cover it.

Imo when you get a high end pick you need to get a player who can swing a game and change momentum. Martin Petracca Buckley Franklin Judd etc they all jave the ability to swim against the tide and make a genuine impact on a teams momentum.

Then you need your quality guns who week in week out get the job done. Pendles Lewis Burgoyne Beams Kerr Cotchin types.

If you get too many non descript types or have hidden flaws (soft small lack endurance or pace etc) with high end picks they either bust or become whe level down hill skiier. Not someone to build a team around.

 

[loki04]

They stand up in the key moments I think is my point. You can’t buy that, and you certainly can’t expect that from inexperienced players.

They also keep the opponent honest and know where and when to run for structures or zones.