Gary Ablett Jnr - Real value at 2001 Draft

[Axcellence]

The lack of media focus on the national draft / the underdeveloped net based history for early 2000s mean that people have gotten away with saying, "Oh, Gary Ablett Jnr wasn't that good at drafting time and so pick 40 was what his real value was". The key inference is that if today's rule was applied, Gary Ablett Jnr would have been worth pick 40, and Geelong would still have pick 8 available for Jimmy Bartel.

Well, it's true that there is limited net based information available - but this this quote when analysed allows one to deduce that had Geelong been operating under today's rules, they would have offered pick 8 for Gary Ablett Jnr.

*Geelong has decided to use Pick 40 in the coming national draft to secure Gary Ablett junior, the 17-year-old son of former Cats forward Gary Ablett, under the father/son rule. Geelong chief executive Brian Cook said the club has signed Ablett Jr to three-year deal. He is not expected to begin training with the club until after the national draft late next month.

http://www.afana.com/netpaper/nov2-68369.html


A very innocuous statement, but on reflection

- How many 17 year olds get a 3 year contract BEFORE they are even drafted?
- The contract was BEFORE HE HAD TRAINED with ANYONE at geelong. So, Geelong were so confident of Gary's transition to AFL before he was even drafted?


I just think, had Geelong been forced to choose under today's rules - Ablett would have been bidden on almost risk free basis by Brisbane/Essendon for pick 19/20, resulting in Geelong having to offer pick 8. Then Jimmy Bartel could have instead been picked at pick 9 instead of 2001 draft's biggest failure - Luke Molan!

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

A very innocuous statement, but on reflection

- How many 17 year olds get a 3 year contract BEFORE they are even drafted?
- The contract was BEFORE HE HAD TRAINED with ANYONE at geelong. So, Geelong were so confident of Gary's transition to AFL before he was even drafted?


I just think, had Geelong been forced to choose under today's rules - Ablett would have been bidden on almost risk free basis by Brisbane/Essendon for pick 19/20, resulting in Geelong having to offer pick 8. Then Jimmy Bartel could have instead been picked at pick 9 instead of 2001 draft's biggest failure - Luke Molan!

Excellent get.

A nice days work when you could grab Jimmy Bartel in the 1st round and James Kelly in the 2nd round.

2007 to 2011 will go down in history as the time when the (old) father son rule rained gold upon Geelong.

 

[Back Pocket Rocket]

Excellent get.

A nice days work when you could grab Jimmy Bartel in the 1st round and James Kelly in the 2nd round.

2007 to 2011 will go down in history as the time when the (old) father son rule rained gold upon Geelong.

Tom Hawkins pick 41 when he would have been pick 1 or 2. The Cats have done very well.

 

[Axcellence]

Tom Hawkins pick 41 when he would have been pick 1 or 2. The Cats have done very well.

He would have been pick 7 in that draft (in today's rules) - and Geelong would have had to give their first pick - which yielded them... Joel Selwood!

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

He would have been pick 7 in that draft (in today's rules) - and Geelong would have had to give their first pick - which yielded them... Joel Selwood!

LOL.

All the coaches, administrations and training facilities in the world can't trump amazingly good luck.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

And if my aunty had have had balls she'd be my uncle.

Why is it only ever Geelong talked about with father sons? Yes a couple worked out but quite a few haven't. Pretty much like any other club.

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

You appear to be unusually emotionally invested in this for a GWS supporter.

 

[Selective Retention]

The lack of media focus on the national draft / the underdeveloped net based history for early 2000s mean that people have gotten away with saying, "Oh, Gary Ablett Jnr wasn't that good at drafting time and so pick 40 was what his real value was". The key inference is that if today's rule was applied, Gary Ablett Jnr would have been worth pick 40, and Geelong would still have pick 8 available for Jimmy Bartel.

No one has said that Ablett was worth pick 40 in the draft. More like late first rounder, early second rounder on the form he had shown at u-18 level.

A very innocuous statement, but on reflection

- How many 17 year olds get a 3 year contract BEFORE they are even drafted?
- The contract was BEFORE HE HAD TRAINED with ANYONE at geelong. So, Geelong were so confident of Gary's transition to AFL before he was even drafted?

Ablett's management demanded the three year contract due to the fact he was under developed at the time. It gave him security and more money, Ablett has played it that way from the very start, perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised. Geelong supporters saw him as a beacon of hope and with the club struggling, they would never not cough up the extra to sign him, purely for marketing purposes.

I just think, had Geelong been forced to choose under today's rules - Ablett would have been bidden on almost risk free basis by Brisbane/Essendon for pick 19/20, resulting in Geelong having to offer pick 8. Then Jimmy Bartel could have instead been picked at pick 9 instead of 2001 draft's biggest failure - Luke Molan!

Do you even know the current F/S rules? If Brisbane/Essendon bid pick 19/20, we would have had to give up pick 23 Charlie Gardiner.

Hawkins was different, and that would have cost us Selwood.

Thanks for playing.

 

[bulletproof]

He would have been nominated by someone as a first round selection because all clubs knew that Geelong would have had to take him.

So yes Selwood and Bartel would not have made their way to Geelong under the current rules.

But while we are playing this game why don't we take Franklin from Hawthorn, Thomas from Collingwood, er, Kosi from St Kilda and a whole raft of players from other clubs who would not have been there under the new priority rule.

At least Geelong benefitted from a quirk in the AFL rules by pure chance and not incompetence ( or manipulation in Collingwood's case).

 

[ThatsjustDappa]

Rumour has it they kept Ablett Jnr in the grain sheds near Corio to master the game without fear of being spied on by recruiters. The effective recruiting strategy stolen from WCE of the 90s worked a treat.

Any posters (sans selective retention) on this thread go for a club which hasn't in recent times had priority picks gifted to them....?

Thread needs more 'father ordinary sons' discussion....

 

[Pessimistic]

Geelong ultimately lost ablett so the luck was limited

 

[funk44]

Wow, it must have being a whole week since someone started a thread about Geelong utilising the father son rules at the time

 

[YorshireSwan]

Ablett's management demanded the three year contract due to the fact he was under developed at the time. It gave him security and more money, Ablett has played it that way from the very start, perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised. Geelong supporters saw him as a beacon of hope and with the club struggling, they would never not cough up the extra to sign him, purely for marketing purposes.

This just doesn't make sense to me ... how does an underdeveloped player demand security and more money? By giving an underdeveloped player an extended contract with more money in my opinion only reinforces the context of the original post that Geelong saw something in Gary that was worth their investment both financially and time.

 

[JUBJUB]

Why is it only ever Geelong talked about with father sons?

Good question

There's another club who've won a premiership in recent years who've had just as many F/S selections yet never get mentioned.I won't say who but if you use a cloke and dagger I'm shaw you can take a stab and guess who.

 

[Axcellence]

No one has said that Ablett was worth pick 40 in the draft. More like late first rounder, early second rounder on the form he had shown at u-18 level.

And Nick Dal Santo had poor championships and hence dropped to pick 13. St Kilda were fretting about him being available and would have picked him earlier - they were really gambling there (in hindsight). The form he showed was as a 17 year old with UPSIDE, not as a 18 year old. He would have been formidable as an 18 year old.

Ablett's management demanded the three year contract due to the fact he was under developed at the time. It gave him security and more money, Ablett has played it that way from the very start, perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised. Geelong supporters saw him as a beacon of hope and with the club struggling, they would never not cough up the extra to sign him, purely for marketing purposes.

Yeah, and Geelong/other established teams generally signs up kids on long term purely for marketing purposes. Remind me which other kid they did that for (even back then).

Do you even know the current F/S rules? If Brisbane/Essendon bid pick 19/20, we would have had to give up pick 23 Charlie Gardiner.

• • 1. Individual clubs are free to nominate potential father-son recruits within the eligibility guidelines below.
  • 2. A meeting is held on the Monday before the start of trade week where clubs can bid for the nominated players. Each club has the option to bid, in reverse ladder order, for the nominated players.
  • 3. If a bid is made, the club that nominated the father-son player must use its next available selection if it wishes to retain its hold on that player. If a club nominating the father-son player declines to match the selection nominated, the club with the successful bid must use that selection at the Draft to select the player.
  • 4. Any club that makes a successful bid on a father-son selection must commit to pick the player they nominate.
  • 5. If no bid is made by another club, the club that nominated the father-son eligible player will forfeit its last selection in the draft to select the player.

For example in 2008 the Western Bulldogs had to use their 1st round selection, #14, to secure Ayce Cordy after St Kilda bid their 1st round selection for him. Ayce's father, Brian, played 124 games for the Bulldogsin the 1980s.

Bidding is done in reverse order, so, a pick in the 19/20s mean that Geelong's next available pick in reverse order would have been pick 8.

Hawkins was different, and that would have cost us Selwood.

Thanks for conceding that.

 

[fpm84]

I wonder why nobody ever talks about our other successful father-sons like David Clarke Jr, Marc Woolnough or Adam Donohue? Oh right, because they aren't two or three time premiership players.

While you're at it, Cloke and Shaw have been pretty instrumental to Collingwood's success. How did they land at the club?

We got lucky in that two of our F-S picks ended up being two of our best players of the past 50 years. As for Hawkins, in mid-2011 he was in the VFL and a constant nomination on BigFooty for biggest dud in the league. It's typical BF mentality that now he's turned it around, it's assumed that he was a 60 goal a year, AA forward from day one of his career.

 

[JUBJUB]

I wonder why nobody ever talks about our other successful father-sons like David Clarke Jr, Marc Woolnough or Adam Donohue? Oh right, because they aren't two or three time premiership players.

Don't forget Tim Callan

 

[SJ]

He would have been pick 7 in that draft (in today's rules) - and Geelong would have had to give their first pick - which yielded them... Joel Selwood!

The ironic thing is that changing the rule means now other clubs don't get to do likewise.

 

[Black Diamond]

Who cares if they got lucky with father-sons? If Andrew Krakouer had been a little better we would have taken him and what if Jesse Smith didn't break his leg? These things just go in cycles.

Also, they landed James Kelly late in the first round with a pick they got from a trade with Melbourne.

 

[iBeng]

So us getting Jonathan Brown at pick 30 from the old F/S rules is why we won 3 premierships...

 

[theGav56]

Bidding is done in reverse order, so, a pick in the 19/20s mean that Geelong's next available pick in reverse order would have been pick 8.

..... uh oh. I think it is the opposite. They would be bidding a 2nd rounder = Gardiner.

I wonder why nobody ever talks about our other successful father-sons like David Clarke Jr, Marc Woolnough or Adam Donohue? Oh right, because they aren't two or three time premiership players.

They would be being discussed if Cats had of given up decent picks for them, but under the rules at the time you did not. I would speculate that your father/sons taken with the obligatory token draft pick have done at least as well as other draft picks taken at the same mark.
Woolnough would have been an excellent pick if not for his injuries.
The Cats worked the rules well at the time.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

Bidding is done in reverse order, so, a pick in the 19/20s mean that Geelong's next available pick in reverse order would have been pick 8.

That is incorrect, "next available selection" means the next pick after that by a bidding club. Hence why Melbourne only had to sweat on GWS or GC nominating Viney to see if they could pick him up with their second round selection. So Port I believe bid for both Daniher and Viney with their first round selection, meaning Bombers had to use pick 10 or thereabouts and Dees had to use pick 22 or thereabouts. I think Melbourne had a compensation pick between 3 and 22, but the AFL decided they didn;t have to use that one Viney.

 

[Dorval6]

FFS the father son rule is so simple to understand but people still get it wrong.

Geelong would have had to use the next pick (23) to secure Ablett if another club had bid pick 20.
NOT PICK 8!

Using the other logic, Melbourne should have used pick 4 last draft for Viney given that another club bid pick 7???

 

[alfy!]

What a terrible thread.

Geelong was actually getting bagged out at the time by its supporters and the footballing world, saying the only reason we picked Ablett Junior was because of his name.

 

[Paul Kersey]

I can't even be arsed talking about Geelong and F/S drafting. Worked out well for them, move on.