Gauntlet Tipping- Starts this week

[Glenno23]

The AFL website's Gauntlet Tipping comp starts this week.

You have to pick 1 team each week that you think will win, only thing is, you can't pick the same team twice. So you have to judge who will win that week, and who the weaker teams are coming up against and can scrape a win. Here's the place to discuss who you will be tipping.

My question is, what if Adelaide or Richmond go winless for the whole season? No one can win!

Who are you tipping this week and why?

My tip for this week- Adelaide Get on em for one of the few chances we will have at winning. if it was at the G, i would be going the Tiges

 

[HugeJohnson]

I will be picking whoever is playing Richmond every week. Bit risky this week though.

 

[spookism]

yup, my thoughts exactly, gunna get on Adelaide this week, have absolutely no idea when to back Richmond in? If their form keeps up, nobody will win the gauntlet!

 

[Ochre]

im not going to go adelaide

if they lost 80% of the competition is gone

 

[eagleskickass]

WCE against Hawks at home would be a chance. Don't know how many more we'll be a good choice for!

 

[Selective Retention]

I will be picking whoever is playing Richmond every week. Bit risky this week though.

The "new" fixture, with clubs playing some teams twice before playing others once, is going to shoot you down here I think.

 

[Absolute Gun]

What the link for Gauntlet Tipping?

 

[The Passenger]

Yeah was looking at that today and nutting out my strategy. Was thinking of going the Richmond option but there are two problems

1 – a lot of people will do it so unless your right up the top of the standard competition you’ve no chance of winning the $5k doing it this way.
2 – surely they will bob up and spring a win

The third problem was there are two teams they play twice over the next 16 rounds (Geelong and can’t remember the other) but it’s pretty easy to get around that problem

It’s worked out well because Richmond’s best chances of picking up wins for a while are the next two weeks against Adelaide and Hawthorn so that could see a lot of the competition eliminated early if they do win, whilst they play us in Melbourne about Round 14ish and we are always a dodgy proposition in Melbourne.

Just so you know there has to be a winner. It’s last person standing, and if they if everyone is knocked out in the same round, or if there are more than one person at round 22, the person with the highest ranking from the standard competition of those last men standing gets the 5k. check their terms and conditions.

 

[Rourke]

I thought this game was a great idea at the start of the season, but with Richmond turning into a bye it's a lot less interesting. The main problem with picking Richmond's opponent each week is that they play Adelaide (7 & 18), Port Adelaide (10 & 22) & St Kilda (11 & 21) twice. That means Geelong, Bulldogs & Eagles miss out.

I've done the maths and worked out that despite there being 21 trillion permutations, only two are worth considering to maximise your chance of 16/16. I won't go into the details but I reckon they're both about a 2% chance of succeeding. The Tigers won't start favourite even at home to Adelaide or West Coast on current form, so you either hope they improve or bite the bullet and take them as underdogs in Round 12 (WCE).

As an example of your choices, Adelaide are about a 85% chance to beat Richmond this week, but won't be better than 60% against anyone else (on current form).

Of course picking the 16 teams in the "mathematically optimal" order is probably silly as a hundred other mathematicians out there have done exactly the same calculations. So where to diverge? ...

 

[The Passenger]

i don't think richmond has made it any less interesting for two reasons;

1 - they will most likely win a game. as shit as teams are, they always seem to spike a few wins. even fitzroy in 96 got one... no reason to think this year won't be any differen.

2 - even if you go the richmond option, as i said, unless your high up in the standard tipping then your no chance of getting the money

a lot of people will go richmond's opponent till round 22, with the obvious divergence being bulldogs v north in round 18 and geelong v carlton in round 21 (no gimme after two weekends ago) and stuck with richmond v port adelaide in round 22 (which conveniently is one of richmond's best chances for a win, especially if port's form wane's at the back end of the season

some may take the gamble and pick richmond against eagles given west coast shocking melbourne form, then west coast round 21 at home to north, which leads to geelong round 22 at home to west coast... if richmond do win that game you're looking solid but once again it comes back to points 1 and 2, more so point 2 because plenty of people will do that exact same combination.

anyway, i'm pretty happy with my plan. i've got richmond as my opponent 7 times, and the only dodgy one of that is coming up against essendon who should win, but are definately not over the line, and given essendon's current form a risk needs to be taken somewhere and that is as good as game as any. the other 14 games i'm currently happy with, and then of course there is richmond's game....

 

[Rourke]

1 - they will most likely win a game. as shit as teams are, they always seem to spike a few wins. even fitzroy in 96 got one... no reason to think this year won't be any differen.

I reckon you've nailed this analysis. But picking when Richmond will win their game(s) is the tricky part. Every time you go with another club, it's a calculated gamble.

a lot of people will go richmond's opponent till round 22, with the obvious divergence being bulldogs v north in round 18 and geelong v carlton in round 21 (no gimme after two weekends ago) and stuck with richmond v port adelaide in round 22 (which conveniently is one of richmond's best chances for a win, especially if port's form wane's at the back end of the season

You're right about that being a popular strategy, but the Geelong-Carlton game will be the risk and I estimate the total chance is 1 in 110 of all 16 winning.

some may take the gamble and pick richmond against eagles given west coast shocking melbourne form, then west coast round 21 at home to north, which leads to geelong round 22 at home to west coast...

That's one of my two templates: about 1 in 50.

anyway, i'm pretty happy with my plan. i've got richmond as my opponent 7 times, and the only dodgy one of that is coming up against essendon who should win, but are definately not over the line, and given essendon's current form a risk needs to be taken somewhere and that is as good as game as any. the other 14 games i'm currently happy with, and then of course there is richmond's game....

I've also shuffled a few matches off the "best" order, but I can't avoid picking against the Tigers for the next four rounds. Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon & Port are all ordinary teams who you wouldn't back with any confidence except against Richmond.

 

[Glenno23]

And ive still no idea to pick

Might have to bite the bullett and hope to gods the Crows win

No Foley and Simmonds (which leaves Vickery to do the the ruck work) should surely see the Crows get up for a win. Surely?

 

[mattys123]

Richmond play West Coast in round 12 or 13 at the G, so save your Tigers tip till then.

Will be the only game they win all year.

 

[Oscarman]

I've gone the Pies this week, although I should really go Adelaide to get them out of the way.

 

[Razorback]

I've gone the Pies this week, although I should really go Adelaide to get them out of the way.

So what does happen if richmond dont win a game? Does everyone lose?

 

[Sterge]

So what does happen if richmond dont win a game? Does everyone lose?

no one can win because you need to pick a winner every week and if Richmond never win then no one can win.

You're pretty much done if the we win our 1 game this season and you haven't picked us that round

 

[kala]

im going to go adelaide leaving my pick for richmond to beat eagles at the G

 

[PowerForGood]

GAUNTLET - The Rules


1. The Gauntlet competition starts in Round 7.

2. Tipsters must select one team to win each round.

3. Each team can only be picked once during the season.

4. The Gauntlet tip must be made prior to the lockout of the first game of the round.

5. If no tip is received the tipster is knocked out.

6. A draw is treated like a win in Gauntlet.

7. If more than one tipster is still alive after Round 22, or all remaining tipsters are wiped out during the same round, the winner will be decided by whoever has the higher ranking.



(By ranking, I assume they mean the overall tipping ranking?)

 

[JD-Roo]

What the link for Gauntlet Tipping?

Same question here.....

 

[PowerForGood]

Same question here.....

Unfortunately, it's part of the AFL website!

https://tipping.afl.com.au/jspforms/welcome.jsp

 

[tarky]

took west coast this week, might have to take a gamble and choose the tigers next round.

 

[Oscarman]

Ended up taking Adelaide. Might pick the Deez or Hawkas next week. Looking to get all the slightly risky ones out of the way early and have Geelong, Saints, Pies etc for the last few weeks.

 

[raskolnikov]

Wish I'd seen this thread last week. Would have been good.

How do they determine the higher rank?

 

[Majinbuu]

Adelaide won

 

[Team Mo']

Went for Adelaide. Don't think I'll even try to pick Richmond...