Rumour GFC 2016 Player Trading, Drafting, FA, Rumours, and Wish lists.

[CatsDoItBetter]

I really hope Geelong keep Kersten he could be a very good second forward. Could see him playing well next to Jack at Richmond. But in my opinion would require Reiwoldt to play closer to goal so probably a new coach.

 

[Rosso]

Just had his best season and unfortunately tailed off in the second half of the year. Still think he starts as our second key forward in 2017.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I really hope Geelong keep Kersten he could be a very good second forward. Could see him playing well next to Jack at Richmond. But in my opinion would require Reiwoldt to play closer to goal so probably a new coach.

I want to keep him but as he is OOC it will be his call if he wants to stay or not.

 

[dazbroncos]

I want to keep him but as he is OOC it will be his call if he wants to stay or not.

Little word is he like it at GFC and does not want to leave - however the game time elsewhere is a big carrot....

And no its not necessarily back home to Freo.

Still reckon playing him as 3rd forward running up out of the arc/ high forward is his best spot. We shall see what happens.

Go Catters

 

[Gogeelong]

Mayne to Collingwood

 

[dazbroncos]

Mayne to Collingwood

Might leave Kersten at Geelong then -

GO Catters

 

[pussygalore]

People miss the point. The move to bring in Deledio is to get better so we are a bigger chance of winning a flag in 2017, 2018 and 2019. You don't get better by trading Deledio for Motlop given everything. It seems to be just a sideways movement if anything. You don't take a risk like that for a sideway movement. There is no way Geelong would do this unless there is something else who can contribute immediately also incoming. It just makes no sense.

A trade for Deledio using draft picks and fringe players to move those draft picks up, however, does make sense from Geelong's perspective and it will make them better in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Its very simple.

I'm not saying it will happen, just saying it needs to make sense and Motlop for Deledio doesn't.

I think more possibly will go down with the comments about Hartlett and Horlin-Smith being chased by the GC. It needs to be complicated enough to hide what is really happening for supporters but achieve what it has to. Something like:

PA
In: Draft Pick (21 from GC), (2nd rounder from Gee)
Out: Hamish Hartlett

Two draft picks that could be packaged together to move up or likely a couple of extra picks in the 20s for a guy who is struggling. Bursting salary cap so likely after draft picks.

Tigers
In: Prestia, Draft Pick (27)
Out: Draft Pick (6 to GC) and Deledio

The hardest sell of the lot, not because of value but because of supporter base. Possibly get a little bit more from Geelong like a swap of Draft Picks in 2017.

GC
In: Draft Pick (6 From Rich), Hartlett, Horlin-Smith
Out: Prestia, Draft Pick (21 to PA), Draft Pick (27 to Rich)

GC get a couple of players they are after plus a quickly pick for Prestia. A couple of 2nd rounders for Harlett is seemingly fair. HS just a throw in that they obviously are looking at.


Gee: In: Deledio
Out: Horlin-Smith, Draft Pick (2nd rounder to PA) - likely acquired in other trade or future

Get Deledio for draft picks and HS. Possibly give up a little more like a draft pick swap in 2017 with Richmond.

I don't think it will be as complicated as that.
I think Lids for Vardy will be a straight swap deal & H-S to GC for [Who really cares]
Motlop rumour is total nonsense and he'll be staying till end of 2017.

The other 3 I haven't heard anything about:
- Kersten [Last Year Rumour - Freo (we'll most likely resign - Interest has declined)] or
- Smedts [Nothing! We are stuck with a lemon] or
- Murdoch [Last Year Rumour - Crows (He'll be traded - Crows are still keen on him)] or

Links:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-09-...at-moves-will-your-club-make-in-the-offseason
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/to-geelong-cats

 

[CatRiot]

I reckon we need a Wojo type defender... someone that can run off the half-back flank, and place defensive pressure on fast forwards - i thought Breust carved us tonight.

 

[Podsnap]

I reckon we need a Wojo type defender... someone that can run off the half-back flank, and place defensive pressure on fast forwards - i thought Breust carved us tonight.

Bews.

 

[Podsnap]

I reckon we need a Wojo type defender... someone that can run off the half-back flank, and place defensive pressure on fast forwards - i thought Breust carved us tonight.

Bews.

Ive liked his run this season. I think he will get there.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Might leave Kersten at Geelong then -

GO Catters

I think its highly likely kersten will other suitors if he chooses to go-hopefully he does stay.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I don't think it will be as complicated as that.
I think Lids for Vardy will be a straight swap deal & H-S to GC for [Who really cares]
Motlop rumour is total nonsense and he'll be staying till end of 2017.

The other 3 I haven't heard anything about:
- Kersten [Last Year Rumour - Freo (we'll most likely resign - Interest has declined)] or
- Smedts [Nothing! We are stuck with a lemon] or
- Murdoch [Last Year Rumour - Crows (He'll be traded - Crows are still keen on him)] or

Links:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-09-...at-moves-will-your-club-make-in-the-offseason
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/to-geelong-cats

The problem with your murdoch idea is the crows already traded their second rounder this year and their 3rd will be around 50 which i cant see us accepting for murdoch when he is under contract.

 

[Johanpetro]

I reckon we need a Wojo type defender... someone that can run off the half-back flank, and place defensive pressure on fast forwards - i thought Breust carved us tonight.

Thurlow mate. Have people forgotten about him??

 

[Johanpetro]

I don't think it will be as complicated as that.
I think Lids for Vardy will be a straight swap deal & H-S to GC for [Who really cares]

Richmond are a bunch of muppets but even they aren't that thick.. trading one of their best for a injury prone VFL player? Spare me.

 

[Hamingja]

For some reason I think Shane Kersten still has some potential that I think I fresh start could help unlock.
What would you guys believe is fair compensation for him?

Btw I hope you guys can knock off the Hawks tonight


Sent from my iPhone

Might have firmed a bit as an option for Richmond with Mayne allegedly locked into Collingwood.

Tigers will want someone up forward with Jack with Vickery also looking like he will be a Hawk.

Let Kersten/Deledio trade hypotheticals shit fight start in earnest

 

[Turbocat]

We might have to give them a future pick, a 3rd rounder in this years draft might be worthless to them which is why I think pick 40 would be more likely.

Thats fairish... but if we can add to him and to endup with a sub 30 pick its a win probably. Id wish GHS all the best and hope it works him , and we get a chance to add one the R1 picks that slip into the 20's.

 

[Turbocat]

Pick values aren't additive, there is a premium to gain access to early picks, certain types of players just can't be reliably obtained with later picks.

Saying that two picks in the 20s equal pick 8 is just as wrong as saying 4 picks in the 40s equal pick 8. The DVI is of little use for clubs that aren't involved in academy or f/s bidding.

They signed him up to 2021, they're not going to get rid of him in a fire sale. if they're salary cap is so stuffed they'd have dumped those mid 20 year old depth players well before they'd considered moving him on.

If someone offered us two pick 20s for Motlop or Duncan you'd laugh (well most would) in their face, it's no different for Harlett

This year Im not so sure... we we laugh being offered two Guthrie's for Motlop? Generally I would agree with you.

 

[Lana]

This year Im not so sure... we we laugh being offered two Guthrie's for Motlop? Generally I would agree with you.

It's not two Guthries, it's 9% of getting two "Guthries" ( approx 30% chance of getting a 200 gamer with pick in the 20s) about a 50% chance of getting at least 1 200 gamer.

 

[catempire]

It's not two Guthries, it's 9% of getting two "Guthries" ( approx 30% chance of getting a 200 gamer with pick in the 20s) about a 50% chance of getting at least 1 200 gamer.

And it's this fundamental principle of probabilities that underpins the phenomena of overrating of draft picks that pervades BF. Every pick seems to be exclusively viewed as its upper end potential, rather than its probabilistic expected value.

 

[MotleyLemon]

Hearing from a Swans mate we're into Dean Towers? Anyone heard anything? I've seen a bit of him at NEAFL level, good size endurance player but not a natural footballer... Probably would prefer him to a Murdoch but wouldn't be best 22...

 

[Lana]

And it's this fundamental principle of probabilities that underpins the phenomena of overrating of draft picks that pervades BF. Every pick seems to be exclusively viewed as its upper end potential, rather than its probabilistic expected value.

I don't see anyone trying to do a probability based valuation of players

 

[Lana]

Hearing from a Swans mate were into Dean Towers? Anyone heard anything? I've seen a bit of him at NEAFL level, good size endurance player but not a natural footballer... Probably would prefer him to a Murdoch but wouldn't be best 22...

I haven't heard anything but our Murdoch quota is filled.

 

[catempire]

I don't see anyone trying to do a probability based valuation of players

It's less important with players but because they are much more of a known quantity but, yes, the calculation should still be implicit in thinking.

E.g. I'd put the chances of Motlop playing another 100 games and kicking 120 goals at about 80%.

 

[Turbocat]

It's not two Guthries, it's 9% of getting two "Guthries" ( approx 30% chance of getting a 200 gamer with pick in the 20s) about a 50% chance of getting at least 1 200 gamer.

Those are facts that are overall , it would change from year to year , from draft to draft , club to club. This years player in the 20's are as good as Thurlow and Lang and Guthrie types. Sure they could be Smedts and Brown... but they were R1's.

 

[Lana]

Those are facts that are overall , it would change from year to year , from draft to draft , club to club. This years player in the 20's are as good as Thurlow and Lang and Guthrie types. Sure they could be Smedts and Brown... but they were R1's.

That uncertainty is why I use the historical values