Rumour GFC 2023 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt II

[cats_09]

Yep, this is making an appearance here also, and probably getting more useful as the season draws to a close and this discussion ramps up

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Oliver would make a bigger impact and is a better player BUT would come with a far bigger price tag.
Future first for Smith or 2.5 firsts for Oliver? Smith every day thanks.

Smith would cost more than 1 x r1 though (if you are talking this year he might be cheaper next year).

 

[bulletproof]

Gawn, Petracca and Oliver is Melbourne. That they are even floating this would suggest something has gone pretty seriously off the rails there and it nothing to do with football.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Nah, robbing from the future has to stop. It's a vicious cycle. Our greatest team was the result of a few good draft years which became the core of our 2007, 2009 and 2011 flags.

We've had some good draft years recently. Even our trading has been for guys drafted in the last 4 drafts.

 

[Shadow89]

Gawn, Petracca and Oliver is Melbourne. That they are even floating this would suggest something has gone pretty seriously off the rails there and it nothing to do with football.

Rumour on the Dees board that I can believe, is that he and his long term partner who kept him grounded, broke up this year. Oliver has gone off the rails ever since.

To me, that's not worthy of letting a player go. With that said, if any of what is being floated is true, he might not be the same player moving forward.

Melbourne will ask the world despite all this, but, a team would have to think long and hard before bringing in a player that is on one of the biggest contracts in the game - and has just been let go from a Premiership contender for seemingly no reason.

Kind of thing North would absolutely do, and then ruin their club all over again while begging for more picks in a few years, lol.

 

[P1ck7]

Clayton Oliver

10

Clayton Oliver

Age

28

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

welcome home!!!!
I would sell the farm and the beach house to get this guy.

 

[Warhorse]

Rumour on the Dees board that I can believe, is that he and his long term partner who kept him grounded, broke up this year. Oliver has gone off the rails ever since.

To me, that's not worthy of letting a player go. With that said, if any of what is being floated is true, he might not be the same player moving forward.

Melbourne will ask the world despite all this, but, a team would have to think long and hard before bringing in a player that is on one of the biggest contracts in the game - and has just been let go from a Premiership contender for seemingly no reason.

Kind of thing North would absolutely do, and then ruin their club all over again while begging for more picks in a few years, lol.

Must be long term injuries that melb are concerned about. It's a long contract

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Oliver would be a great addition to any team, I can’t see that we would have the trade capital to make it happen.

 

[Shadow89]

We've had some good draft years recently. Even our trading has been for guys drafted in the last 4 drafts.

Yeah it's a bit of a furphy this whole 'topping up thing' - in recent years at least.

We have on our list 26 or below, who have played at least one AFL game - drafted/traded in/SSP, since 2016:

Tanner Bruhn
Ollie Henry
Jack Bowes
Shannon Neale
Toby Conway
Mitch Knevitt
Ollie Dempsey
Max Holmes
Tyson Stengle
Brad Close
Gryan Miers
Sam De Koning
Jack Henry
Zach Guthrie
Jhye Clark
Ted Clohesy
Oisin Mullin
Esava Ratugolea (will be traded)
Brandan Parfitt
Mark O'Connor

**********

Add in Kolo, C. Guthrie, T. Atkins, Cameron, Stewart, Blics and Bews, and that's our side from 2025 onwards. Or in on field form (bolded and underlined for players 26 or under):

B: Mullin, SDK, J. Henry
HB: Stewart, Kolo, Zuthrie
C: Holmes, T. Atkins, Bowes
FO: Conway, C. Guthrie, Bruhn
HF: O. Henry, J. Cameron, Miers
F: Stengle, S. Neale, Close
INT: Blics, O'Connor, Knevitt, Dempsey
Sub: Parfitt

EMG: Bews, O'Connor, Clohesy

**********************

So with our remaining players who have played at least 1 AFL game, and who will remain in 2025, 19 out of our Best 26 are currently 26 and under. That's over 2/3rds of our list, and shows the dramatic shift that our list has undergone in recent years.

 

[Shadow89]

Must be long term injuries that melb are concerned about. It's a long contract

This is why you don't give players contracts this big. Clubs never seem to learn though.

He's just had knee surgery, multiple hamstring issues and a foot issue of his own creation apparently - so he might not even be the same player moving forward.

Couple that with Melb even entertaining the idea and the swirling rumours of Oliver's behaviour, and it's not a contract any decent club would look at without absolutely forensic analysis of what brought all this about in the first place.

 

[Rubberducky]

This is why you don't give players contracts this big. Clubs never seem to learn though.

He's just had knee surgery, multiple hamstring issues and a foot issue of his own creation apparently - so he might not even be the same player moving forward.

Couple that with Melb even entertaining the idea and the swirling rumours of Oliver's behaviour, and it's not a contract any decent club would look at without absolutely forensic analysis of what brought all this about in the first place.

The foot issue is the only genuine concern. The rest we'd have to back ourselves to manage. Hammy's we're not perfect with, but we managed Jezza well in 2022.

Now Behavior is different, as a function it looks like this- B=f(P*E), so Behavior is a function of the Person multiplied by their Environment. The Environment at Melbourne is very different, a very obvious difference- our coach isn't Goodwin, he's not "one of the boys", in fact, none of our coaches are. We have more freedom for our players to have lives. I could go on. But my point is this, without the Person wanting to change we don't take a risk, but if he does, we'd back our Environmental advantages to mean this is a big behavioral win.

The contract is ugly, but we'd be silly not to look at him.

 

[Turbocat]

I made that same argument for years; why haven't/hadn't we at least attempted to replicate the 2-swings-at-the-draft-pinata approach since it reaped such rewards?

The 2022 flag ultimately justified the previous decade's list management philosophy.
And Scott is unproven in coaching a young developing team; he's always had a strong core of senior players to build on.
So I expect more of the same for the foreseeable future; an agile approach to list building that utilizes draft picks as bargaining chips more than an opportunity to invest in youth.

Im still not 100% convinced anything we have done in the past is repeatable in 2024 going forward

Going a two year double down with a "all in" draft approach work without having the father sons that we had thru that period? No club could have better draft hand given Gold Coast and GWS .... has it worked for them? I look back at who we drafted... and we had players like Enright and Corey stay..who knows how that goes in this era. We have already seen Clark go.

Does this current period work without the remainder of that previous era in Hawk and Joel .. and having someone Danger ... possibly the best player in the comp wanting to come to us. Does it work without the luck of a 2x B&F Rookie B player.... while we have been as cleaver as anyone... just how much have we had luck play a role. Finding Stewart might be repeatable...but Blitz seems almost a freak outcome. I also think that if you manage to snag a bargain some where it can change your collateral. Kelly did it for us.

There is no doubt that what works has changed ..and I think is still evolving.

For us now there is no fsons on the horizon... the advanatge of high level FSons for some clubs has been advantageous as anything we have received in the past. Dacois , Ashcroft... basically P1. Maybe still not Hawkins... but Hawk took years. No 4 or 5 year draft attack with single figure picks. (yet) ... so we are treading a different path.

Bottom line..no matter how we do ..we probably need to acquire ..XXX amount of talent to be able to win the thing. So how do we get that talent with only so
much draft capital.If they changed the age to FA that would certainly change that

I dont think having a North hand of picks locks players and success in these days... as they have only a period of time before their players will be hunted. I can remember a couple of years ago think Melb were set for a dynasty. What Geelong did thru 07 thru 11 is underrated .. only because of the 08 GF.. and even when its started to unravel in 2010 ..we still made a PF.

I suspect we saw some of the new way last year. Get players that we can not get access to young enough to build a new era. The draft can be expensive. Bruhn ..two years in the system.. and for 18 not 12. Ollie Herny for what he cost. Even BSmith if it cost P7 this year and something from last year would be value as... the player we miss (lets say Wilson) we probably have a look at in 2026. Pies again is a traditionally old side 3 rd oldest in history. Something is certainly changing.

What it does to the draft long term if everyone starts this .. probably is not what the afl wants... so interesting times.

 

[dangerwood]

This is why you don't give players contracts this big. Clubs never seem to learn though.

He's just had knee surgery, multiple hamstring issues and a foot issue of his own creation apparently - so he might not even be the same player moving forward.

Couple that with Melb even entertaining the idea and the swirling rumours of Oliver's behaviour, and it's not a contract any decent club would look at without absolutely forensic analysis of what brought all this about in the first place.

It's just crazy that last year he signs a huge contract and this year he's potentially traded.

It's amazing how quickly things shift, doesn't Grundy still have a couple years of he's huge contract to go? With two clubs now having got rid of him.

 

[cats_09]

Re: Oliver - we need to remember that it was last year with a year still to run on his then current deal, that he signed a 7-yr extension worth an estimated $7 million

IF Melbourne is open to trading him just a year later and technically before that extension has started, then something must have seriously blown up between him & the club, or they've realised they've screwed their salary cap, need to open space to land a big fish, and Oliver is one they believe is most replaceable/easiest to move on, in terms of that bulk cap space

So if Oliver does find himself a new home, his new team will be the ones who themselves paying for a deal agreed to between Oliver & Melbourne, in which Melbourne seemingly won't pay a cent of

Is this a situation where Melbourne shouldn't expect full value in a trade if the new team is expected to take on a 7yr $7 million deal, or even better, is this where the new team should have the ability to negotiate a new contract with Oliver prior to any trade since technically the extension signed last year hasn't started yet?

 

[cats_09]

It's just crazy that last year he signs a huge contract and this year he's potentially traded.

It's amazing how quickly things shift, doesn't Grundy still have a couple years of he's huge contract to go? With two clubs now having got rid of him.

Grundy still has 4 years left on the deal he signed with Collingwood

 

[Turbocat]

Have to wonder if Kane Cornes is on the Port pay role.... he continually runs the Sav trade down .... and has a ping at Ollie Henry regularly.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Have to wonder if Kane Cornes is on the Port pay role.... he continually runs the Sav trade down .... and has a ping at Ollie Henry regularly.

Almost like something horrific happened to him in his 20s involving several cats players

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

Whatever happens we need some A graders.. we can't win with Dangerfield, Duncan slowing + the loss of Selwood last year hurt us a lot. The game starts in the midfield and we got killed way too often this year. Tanking (Melbourne, Richmond), academy selections(Brisbane) or father sons(Collingwood) seem to be the only way.

 

[Johanpetro]

The more I look at it the more it seems impossible we would have a chance at Oliver. Almost every club will have a crack at him and they would have a far better hand than us. Unless we go full Simple Jack and offer something like Pick 7, future first and Max Holmes (no thanks). We just don’t have enough to get him. Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

more affordable

 

[Vdubs]

He wouldnt want to go to north though.

Not so fast there PO.
Clarko as coach- enhances their future.
They have many concessions and great picks, as well as a building list.
They have an awesome KF and some great mids/hbf /rising stars already.
Not quite the basket case they have been.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Oliver would be a great addition to any team, I can’t see that we would have the trade capital to make it happen.

Exactly
Nil chance as much I'd love to see it happen

 

[Shadow89]

Not so fast there PO.
Clarko as coach- enhances their future.
They have many concessions and great picks, as well as a building list.
They have an awesome KF and some great mids/hbf /rising stars already.
Not quite the basket case they have been.

Then why did they need the Priority Picks?

Either they're a basketcase that needed 3 first rounders and two second rounders to stop them being one, or they have a good future and they never required them in the first place.

It's the same illogical argument the North supporters themselves put forward. You can't have both.

I think they're on the up too (and never required all those ridiculous concession) but I also think Clarry could pick 15 other clubs to play at, that would be in a much better position for the future.

 

[moond0g]

Not so fast there PO.
Clarko as coach- enhances their future.
They have many concessions and great picks, as well as a building list.
They have an awesome KF and some great mids/hbf /rising stars already.
Not quite the basket case they have been.

There's also no need for Oliver at North. Midfielders is one area they are well stocked in, why spend $7mil brining in another one?

 

[moond0g]

Re: Oliver - we need to remember that it was last year with a year still to run on his then current deal, that he signed a 7-yr extension worth an estimated $7 million

IF Melbourne is open to trading him just a year later and technically before that extension has started, then something must have seriously blown up between him & the club, or they've realised they've screwed their salary cap, need to open space to land a big fish, and Oliver is one they believe is most replaceable/easiest to move on, in terms of that bulk cap space

So if Oliver does find himself a new home, his new team will be the ones who themselves paying for a deal agreed to between Oliver & Melbourne, in which Melbourne seemingly won't pay a cent of

Is this a situation where Melbourne shouldn't expect full value in a trade if the new team is expected to take on a 7yr $7 million deal, or even better, is this where the new team should have the ability to negotiate a new contract with Oliver prior to any trade since technically the extension signed last year hasn't started yet?

The new club could try and renegotiate a new contract with Oliver, but why would he agree to it? would you be willing to let go $7 million?

 

[Johanpetro]

Carlton, Essendon, Sydney and Adelaide mentioned on SEN as potential destinations. No comment on Geelong

 

[Grimoz]

Carlton, Essendon, Sydney and Adelaide mentioned on SEN as potential destinations. No comment on Geelong

Essendon ans Sydney seem to have unlimited cap space at the moment, linked to everyone and their grandma!!!