Rumour GFC 2023 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt1

[cats_09]

As we are now getting into the season and we are starting to get a bit more serious with discussion, seems a suitable time to post the following as it's repeatedly shown itself to be a value reference tool in trade & draft discussion

And as per normal, thanks to Lore for putting this together - always a fantastic reference tool



And yes this post is now stickied - makes it easy to keep track of (can easily reverse this though if needed)

 

[Shadow89]

On paper you could argue this will help teams bottom out quicker and rebound.

If it's unrestricted and you structure your list with cap to burn then load up on a 3-4 in the top 10 scenario a couple of times you could end up building a powerhouse pretty quick. Then those powerhouses get squeezed later on but offload their cap for picks they don't really need to use.

You might also find other clubs ready to blow up their list to generate cap and buy picks so you might find decent players on the scrap heap for cheap.

Also a trade for a player where the other party doesn't have a pick or a player to trade out, you'll maybe find it easier to obtain the picks to get it over the line and the team the player is leaving may be more assertive in demands.

But overall, the increased fluidity of player movement, and the universal rule that players will accept unders to play on winning sides, means that I think this will just help strong clubs stay strong and will set back equalisation a long way.

The first two points are where I think the AFL hasn't thought this through properly. All and sundry thought that Bowes would go to Hawks or Essendon, but he chose us because we chased him months out - and those two only went after him once the carrot of Pick 7 was on the table.

Not to mention your point about players getting pushed out as a result of this, who very could actually be decent in a decent side. It's all well and good to trade cap for picks, but who's to say that the player you trade won't rebound and outstrip the expectations you have for that cash/the player you draft. History is littered with players who absolutely kill it when thrown into a new environment (we are a great example of this).

Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like Witherden thrive in our environment, given he wasn't valued at the Lions, and was thrust into an utterly uncompetitive basketcase at WC. Was actually looking really good before he got demoted to the 2nd's at the Lions, and then dropped off after that.

Other ones are guys like Paddy Dow, Hately, Fin Macrae, Tom Powell, Jack Billings, Sam Flanders, Jack Bytel, Rhylee West, Dylan Stephens etc. These are all guys who come to mind as guys who aren't getting a good look in/on the fringe, but could thrive in a designated role at our club.

Still early days, but I'm definitely curious as to what our role will be in this whole new landscape.

 

[Lana]

On thing a pure pick for dollars trade does in each draft too is give a mechanism to directly price dvi by draft. Depending on data point you could even get an indicator on perceived depth within draft as well as comparing years.

I'm not sure if the sample size will ever be large enough to make that kind of assessment.

 

[Lana]

The first two points are where I think the AFL hasn't thought this through properly. All and sundry thought that Bowes would go to Hawks or Essendon, but he chose us because we chased him months out - and those two only went after him once the carrot of Pick 7 was on the table.

Not to mention your point about players getting pushed out as a result of this, who very could actually be decent in a decent side. It's all well and good to trade cap for picks, but who's to say that the player you trade won't rebound and outstrip the expectations you have for that cash/the player you draft. History is littered with players who absolutely kill it when thrown into a new environment (we are a great example of this).

Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like Witherden thrive in our environment, given he wasn't valued at the Lions, and was thrust into an utterly uncompetitive basketcase at WC. Was actually looking really good before he got demoted to the 2nd's at the Lions, and then dropped off after that.

Other ones are guys like Paddy Dow, Hately, Fin Macrae, Tom Powell, Jack Billings, Sam Flanders, Jack Bytel, Rhylee West, Dylan Stephens etc. These are all guys who come to mind as guys who aren't getting a good look in/on the fringe, but could thrive in a designated role at our club.

Still early days, but I'm definitely curious as to what our role will be in this whole new landscape.

Not all those players are equal, but a change in mentality over these types of player value would free up a lot of value and increase the number of trades.

For a team, fringe players off their initial contract provide the least value. You end up playing 200-300k a year for a player to bounce between VFL and AFL level.

If you could split the middle, you pay half they pay half, suddenly they don't look too dissimilar to a mature aged recruit. It's doable under the current rules, but not utilised often, clubs don't like to cut their loses.

The Rohan trade is a great example, we got him for pick 61 and they paid a bit of his wage. As long as he was playing for us at AFL level, we weren't going to lose.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm not sure if the sample size will ever be large enough to make that kind of assessment.

You might get an opportunity to get a few specific inferences though

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I agree with all that 100 %.

But we wont get parish for free ess will match and force a trade-hence the equation changes.

Would they still match if we finish above them?? Dodoro might be cutting his nose off to spite his face with that one.

Can we trade out two firts? This years and next?? If so, can imagine a person like dodoro eyeing both off like a bull trying to clean out house.

Personally i am hesitant to trade out a first at all for him, let alone two.. I would truly want us to walk.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Would they still match if we finish above them?? Dodoro might be cutting his nose off to spite his face with that one.

Can we trade out two firts? This years and next?? If so, can imagine a person like dodoro eyeing both off like a bull trying to clean out house.

Personally i am hesitant to trade out a first at all for him, let alone two.. I would truly want us to walk.

We would be betting on ourselves, but it's nothing we haven't done before.

I'll back the club to assess where we stand and whether or not bringing in Parish is a good idea vs taking the picks.

I remember in 2019, Scott came out and said he expects us to be a better side in 2020. I genuinely thought he was crazy at the time.

Our list didn't have the young talent it has now. Our players were another year older....and one of the best players in the game was leaving us. From a supporters POV, there was little reason to expect a GF the following year.

......but he was right.

We saw similar with the Holmes trade. Even while bringing in Jezza and Norm, many on here feared a cliff was coming and that we'd be giving away a treasured pick.

......they were right.

The club backed themselves, finished high again and got a future superstar in Holmes.

I just trust us to make the right decision, and I think we all should unitl they give us reason not to.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Sounds like it might be a complicated ashquisition

Will be if we get lachie (ash)

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Will be if we get lachie (ash)

Do you feel Lachie punk?

 

[Mr Meow]

Do you feel Lachie punk?

Lachie Punk's been tracking okay, but I have no idea what that has to do with the Ash situation.

 

[D BRIDGE]

I agree with all that 100 %.

But we wont get parish for free ess will match and force a trade-hence the equation changes.

Do you think they would match 1.1mill over 5 years?

I hope we offer something overs for him that at least pushes them and makes them think about not matching.

This would be assuming that he even entertains wanting to leave the Dons, although his manager should be looking to leverage outside interest to drive a great offer from the Dons anyway (even if he really knows deep down that he wants to stay).

 

[Shadow89]

I agree with all that 100 %.

But we wont get parish for free ess will match and force a trade-hence the equation changes.

Yes and no. I'd say we've learned our lesson from the Jez saga, and we'll just trade out one of our 1sts for players instead, to prevent that happening (as we did with Bruhn v O. Henry).

Two things need to happen for mine:

1. We need to finish higher than them on the ladder so the compo pick is more valuable than our pick
2. We need to trade out one of our 1sts, to prevent them asking for both - which again makes the compo pick more valuable

***************

Honestly think this is all a moot point though, as the Parish links are tenuous at best - and there's not been one insider on here with any credible info linking us. Have said he'll stay all along, and reckon he re-signs in the coming weeks, IMO.

 

[D BRIDGE]

My hopes for getting Parish are also fading.

Maybe a month or two ago I thought it all fit nicely but yeah there's just no noise that he wants to leave.

 

[fpm84]

Parish will sign with Essendon in the next month IMO. I don't think he's any chance of leaving.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Do you think they would match 1.1mill over 5 years?

I hope we offer something overs for him that at least pushes them and makes them think about not matching.

This would be assuming that he even entertains wanting to leave the Dons, although his manager should be looking to leverage outside interest to drive a great offer from the Dons anyway (even if he really knows deep down that he wants to stay).

They have plenty of cap, if they'd hesitate on the number so would we

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Do you think they would match 1.1mill over 5 years?

I hope we offer something overs for him that at least pushes them and makes them think about not matching.

This would be assuming that he even entertains wanting to leave the Dons, although his manager should be looking to leverage outside interest to drive a great offer from the Dons anyway (even if he really knows deep down that he wants to stay).

Happy to pump up Parish's pay day and add heat to Essendons future cap

 

[Willo_]

Geelong has selected a few in the same mould over the years who were big bodied inside mids that struggled to cover the ground and find easy ball outside. I even thought Knevitt might be the same. I suspect him playing on the wing is, in part, about teaching him to find some easy(/easier) ball around the ground.

Let us all take a moments pause to remember Jarrad "Future 200 Gamer" Jansen

 

[D BRIDGE]

Happy to pump up Parish's pay day and add heat to Essendons future cap

For sure... Not down with making it easy for them.

 

[D BRIDGE]

What are everybody's thoughts on the $$$ value of a draft pick 7/12 range?

About a millionish cap room?

Bowes was 1.6mil for 2 years and is probs worth 600k so that is a 1mill difference for pick #7.

Obviously it will come very clear if cap purchasing becomes a thing.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

Bruhn and hopefully clark can cover the void of the smaller mid Selwood type role. I haven't watched much of Parish but is it likely he can fill the void of Danger retiring? If not there's no point selling the farm for him.

 

[Baudolino]

Are any other prime ages mids likely to be gettable at the end of the season if we miss out on Parish? We are in desperate need of quality reinforcements in that age demographic.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Are any other prime ages mids likely to be gettable at the end of the season if we miss out on Parish? We are in desperate need of quality reinforcements in that age demographic.

Not really much on the market

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Bruhn and hopefully clark can cover the void of the smaller mid Selwood type role. I haven't watched much of Parish but is it likely he can fill the void of Danger retiring? If not there's no point selling the farm for him.

Parish is good but he ain't ever going to win a Brownlow. Good add for cash only. Less good for picks.

Also, obscenely fresh username. I rate

 

[D BRIDGE]

Bruhn and hopefully clark can cover the void of the smaller mid Selwood type role. I haven't watched much of Parish but is it likely he can fill the void of Danger retiring? If not there's no point selling the farm for him.

The reality is that you can just go and grab someone to fill the void of an all-time great.

Danger will likely at least equal or go past Gaz Junior as having the most ever 3 votes games in history this year.

Someone at that level is never easily replaced.

What a player he has been.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Parish is good but he ain't ever going to win a Brownlow. Good add for cash only. Less good for picks.

Also, obscenely fresh username. I rate

I actually wouldn't be surprised if he did with us, but that's mainly about the media effect more than anything.

People just notice your performances far more once you've moved on big money, particularly to a great club like ours.

He'll be in the spotlight, and the headline act of our midfield. Danger and Guth will be on managed minutes, and the rest while talented, are still kids.

Not to mention we just seem to get the best out of players, and allow them to play to their strengths.

I didn't think Tom Mitchell or Lachie Neale would ever be Brownlow medalists, and Parish has had a similar career trajectory to those two before they moved clubs.

It's a chance I reckon.

 

[gogeelongcats]

Bruhn and hopefully clark can cover the void of the smaller mid Selwood type role. I haven't watched much of Parish but is it likely he can fill the void of Danger retiring? If not there's no point selling the farm for him.

Parish is no Danger