Club Focus Gold Coast SUNS 2023

[Chris25]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

 

[perplexed]

I really really doubt that

Yeah. Probably not. We wouldn't do it coz we are too polite. But if it were an open draft and we had picks 2 & 3, those are the two players we should be taking.

 

[Iva Bigun]

Yeah. Probably not. We wouldn't do it coz we are too polite. But if it were an open draft and we had picks 2 & 3, those are the two players we should be taking.

If it was open you wouldn’t have pick 3

 

[perplexed]

It is possible. Just that it has never happened before, despite much more tempting prospects.

I also might win the lotto! (Except that I have never actually bought a ticket...)

Are you serious? These two are guns. This draft will set GC up for a decade.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think you should take a look, he’s no Jackson but his field kicking is very very good. Handy below his knees as well

I don’t want to sell him short, English just got AA ruck and his field kicking is very good. He might be better than Jackson but I think a large reason he went so high is that teams saw him playing literally anywhere on the field (I want him playing mid/ruck). He sounds unreal, just think he’ll go at or just outside top 10 because he’s a ruck (being Academy seems to help as well)

 

[Caligo]

Are you serious? These two are guns. This draft will set GC up for a decade.

Excluding Walter who I already said would go pick 2-4 the others aren't more tempting than Nick Daicos who went pick 4 when there were big calls at the time about using pick 1 or 2 to bid for him to drive up the price Collingwood would pay.

Daicos isn't the only one obviously, just the most extreme example.

 

[Keystone agony]

Im happy just taking in max 3800 points pre draft if im the suns

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Excluding Walter who I already said would go pick 2-4 the others aren't more tempting than Nick Daicos who went pick 4 when there were big calls at the time about using pick 1 or 2 to bid for him to drive up the price Collingwood would pay.

Daicos isn't the only one obviously, just the most extreme example.

Daicos going 4 was so weird. He was the clear pick 1 if not FS that year.

IMO Walter would probably go 1 this year if he wasn't an academy player.

Personally I have no issue with high bids, it's a competitive industy. Clubs should be made to pay full price. Walter @ 2 and Read anywhere from 5 is my pick. Rogers maybe slips a bit.

 

[Caligo]

Daicos going 4 was so weird. He was the clear pick 1 if not FS that year.

IMO Walter would probably go 1 this year if he wasn't an academy player.

Personally I have no issue with high bids, it's a competitive industy. Clubs should be made to pay full price. Walter @ 2 and Read anywhere from 5 is my pick. Rogers maybe slips a bit.

It is just the case that, in general, bidding has tended to be later than expected except in the rare occasions of an elite KPF. And yeah Walter would certainly have a lot more hype if clubs could actually get him.

 

[Keystone agony]

It is just the case that, in general, bidding has tended to be later than expected except in the rare occasions of an elite KPF. And yeah Walter would certainly have a lot more hype if clubs could actually get him.

Rowston
L.Henry

 

[Caligo]

Rowston
L.Henry

Both excellent examples. I still think my point stands though.

 

[FB19]

So how many points do they add in worthwhile picks (anything prior to 50) in the trade period. That is what will determine what offer they will take for pick 4. If anything like 1500 of the 2034 pick 4 points then it will be the highest f1. That’s only the equivalent of pick 15. Hollands will get pretty close. So who offers the best f1? We can offer pick 29 (653 points) plus our f1 which is likely top 6. Who betters that? The sides that have been mooted with 2023 capital need the suns to do nothing in the trade period.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You already have Bliclavs you greedy Kent!

Blicavs is 33 and stanley is just about done and hawkins is also close to the end. Thats why i said read legitimately fits what we need list wise so while im sure gc would match it wouldnt be a dummy bid on our behalf.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

How’s his ground ball stuff? Is it potentially as good as Jackson? Isn’t he more in the line of English?

His contested game at the stoppage is not as good as jacksons (but it will develop imo as he gets more core strength) but he covers the ground really well and his handballing below his knees and general skill by foot is very top end for a big man (so yes english is probably a better comparison). So i can see him very much becoming that blicavs unicorn type player that all clubs would love to have. Hes the second best tall in the pool (after walter) to my eyes.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So how many points do they add in worthwhile picks (anything prior to 50) in the trade period. That is what will determine what offer they will take for pick 4. If anything like 1500 of the 2034 pick 4 points then it will be the highest f1. That’s only the equivalent of pick 15. Hollands will get pretty close. So who offers the best f1? We can offer pick 29 (653 points) plus our f1 which is likely top 6. Who betters that? The sides that have been mooted with 2023 capital need the suns to do nothing in the trade period.

I think they will trade hollands for a 2nd and maybe use a future 2nd or 3rd to get an extra r2 or 3 this year. All of that will cover the points they need this year.

Then they can trade 4 for a future 1st and maybe points this year. I agree nm and wce wont risk trading their fr1 (unless curtain is still there at 4) and gc wont take an fr1 form projected top 6 clubs (ie port or melb or bris etc etc). So its probably a middle of the road club that trades for it eg i could see adelaide offering their 20s picks and fr1, richmond might, dogs could, ess might etc.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Yeah I meant the other 3.

If you rank it purely on needs geelong or sydney are probably the teams that need a player like read (hawks do too but 3 is probably too early to bid). I think melbourne carlton and even wce might all look at rogers later in r1 or early r2. Graham is harder to predict.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Blicavs is 33 and stanley is just about done and hawkins is also close to the end. Thats why i said read legitimately fits what we need list wise so while im sure gc would match it wouldnt be a dummy bid on our behalf.

Okay - You've already had Blicavs you greedy Kent!!!

 

[sydney_gws]

Excluding Walter who I already said would go pick 2-4 the others aren't more tempting than Nick Daicos who went pick 4 when there were big calls at the time about using pick 1 or 2 to bid for him to drive up the price Collingwood would pay.

Daicos isn't the only one obviously, just the most extreme example.

Daicos was 4 as North wanted JHF to be 1, GWS
didn't want to be annoying Collingwood as we need some support from powerful VIC clubs.

 

[hawkinoz]

Yeah. Probably not. We wouldn't do it coz we are too polite. But if it were an open draft and we had picks 2 & 3, those are the two players we should be taking.

then you should bid. If Suns don't match, then you have the players you want.

But I bet those are NOT the players you want, maybe Walters but not Read at 3.

 

[perplexed]

then you should bid. If Suns don't match, then you have the players you want.

But I bet those are NOT the players you want, maybe Walters but not Read at 3.

This looks to be a great year for talls, but Walter and Read seem to be the best of them. Most years they should go 1 & 2. People think Read will slip because rucks normally do. I'm not so sure. If he gets to 10 it will be sillier than when Tom Green did.

 

[Dangerousfield]

North stuffed up big time in not bidding on Daicos at pick 1. Show how skewed their thinking was. The 20% discount is a joke and needs to go, being able to match is bonus enough.

Am I correct in thinking pick 4 is the highest pick that's ever been up for grabs and that will definitely be traded?

Going to be a fascinating watch to see how this unfolds and what mix of picks eventually satisfies GC. They are probably just sitting back saying send me your best offers, then they'll choose a couple to play off against each other to get a bit more. Nice that GC has the whip hand for once

 

[Caligo]

Are you serious? These two are guns. This draft will set GC up for a decade.

Yes I am serious. I think there are at least 5 better players for you to choose than Read. Then again, I don't believe in using top picks on ruckman ever, under any circumstances. No ruckman taken in the top half dozen picks has ever justified his selection (maybe niknat, but too injured to ever be worth the pick in my opinion).

I do think you should definitely bid on Walter though. I do have concerns about him, but he looks seriously good and you really need a partner for the seriously impressive Larkey.

 

[perplexed]

Last year Brisbane went into the draft with - 34, 35, 36, 38, 55

Once the draft opened they made a couple of live trades using future picks to have - 34, 36, 38, 40, 41, 50, 52, 63

They matched the Ashcroft bid at 2 with 5 picks (34, 36, 38, 40, 41). This moved their later picks up the draft order and increased their value.

They then matched the Fletcher bid at 12 with 3 picks that had moved up 41, 47, 49.


The lesson from this is that the more picks you use to match a bid, the more you increase the value of your later picks for later bids and the easier it is to find the points you need. As GC have three first round academy players, they will look to exploit this more than we have seen before.

Rogers is likely to be the forth first round player to be bid on. The picks used for him will have come in 8-10 spots. He could be claimed with four picks that start the draft in the sixties and worth only a few hundred points.

For this reason, I think GC will live trade pick 4 to club who brings a combination of the best F1 and the most third and forth round picks. And they will load up on future picks before the draft to use to live trade for mass picks when the draft opens. The teams they deal with will be those who have the list positions to bring in the junk picks.

 

[Keystone agony]

Last year Brisbane went into the draft with - 34, 35, 36, 38, 55

Once the draft opened they made a couple of live trades using future picks to have - 34, 36, 38, 40, 41, 50, 52, 63

They matched the Ashcroft bid at 2 with 5 picks (34, 36, 38, 40, 41). This moved their later picks up the draft order and increased their value.

They then matched the Fletcher bid at 12 with 3 picks that had moved up 41, 47, 49.


The lesson from this is that the more picks you use to match a bid, the more you increase the value of your later picks for later bids and the easier it is to find the points you need. As GC have three first round academy players, they will look to exploit this more than we have seen before.

Rogers is likely to be the forth first round player to be bid on. The picks used for him will have come in 8-10 spots. He could be claimed with four picks that start the draft in the sixties and worth only a few hundred points.

For this reason, I think GC will live trade pick 4 to club who brings a combination of the best F1 and the most third and forth round picks. And they will load up on future picks before the draft to use to live trade for mass picks when the draft opens. The teams they deal with will be those who have the list positions to bring in the junk picks.

You are probably right

What suns need can be heavily dictated to by whether Walter is bid on at 2 or 3, there is a substantial point differential

Pick 3 they need less points and would have a greater focus on the best Future pick

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Last year Brisbane went into the draft with - 34, 35, 36, 38, 55

Once the draft opened they made a couple of live trades using future picks to have - 34, 36, 38, 40, 41, 50, 52, 63

They matched the Ashcroft bid at 2 with 5 picks (34, 36, 38, 40, 41). This moved their later picks up the draft order and increased their value.

They then matched the Fletcher bid at 12 with 3 picks that had moved up 41, 47, 49.


The lesson from this is that the more picks you use to match a bid, the more you increase the value of your later picks for later bids and the easier it is to find the points you need. As GC have three first round academy players, they will look to exploit this more than we have seen before.

Rogers is likely to be the forth first round player to be bid on. The picks used for him will have come in 8-10 spots. He could be claimed with four picks that start the draft in the sixties and worth only a few hundred points.

For this reason, I think GC will live trade pick 4 to club who brings a combination of the best F1 and the most third and forth round picks. And they will load up on future picks before the draft to use to live trade for mass picks when the draft opens. The teams they deal with will be those who have the list positions to bring in the junk picks.

I feel like this might be too much for GC to pull off. I think talking about a pick like 4, they'll have to trade it before the night. That pick will probably change a few things and it will be hard for teams to just have to sit back and wait till draft night. Teams entire draft hands and position will change on whether they have that pick and they'll have to pull out if GC insist on waiting till draft night.

They can park some other later picks in next year and trade them in on draft night like Brisbane did. Think it's too hard to do that with pick 4

 

[Keystone agony]

The suns would never do 4 for 15, 30 and 41 or whatever was suggested

Whats the point?