Club Focus Gold Coast SUNS 2023

[Chris25]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

 

[perplexed]

I feel like this might be too much for GC to pull off. I think talking about a pick like 4, they'll have to trade it before the night. That pick will probably change a few things and it will be hard for teams to just have to sit back and wait till draft night. Teams entire draft hands and position will change on whether they have that pick and they'll have to pull out if GC insist on waiting till draft night.

They can park some other later picks in next year and trade them in on draft night like Brisbane did. Think it's too hard to do that with pick 4

Surely pick 4 is a pre-arranged live trade, they already have more picks than they can take to the draft. They'll want whoever gets it to bring picks in for them.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Surely pick 4 is a pre-arranged live trade, they already have more picks than they can take to the draft. They'll want whoever gets it to bring picks in for them.

As a pre-arranged one I suppose. So get excited if your team starts stocking up on third round picks through trade week?

 

[Crow till I die]

As a pre-arranged one I suppose. So get excited if your team starts stocking up on third round picks through trade week?

Only got to get through 7 weeks of trade radio guessing stuff and repeating ad infinitum before that first...how did we ever survive before trade radio

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Only got to get through 7 weeks of trade radio guessing stuff and repeating ad infinitum before that first...how did we ever survive before trade radio

As a trade tragic, I gave up on it last year and that was with a crap load of interesting stuff happening. I'm legitimately feeling 2nd hand embarrassment already for what those hosts are going to have to discuss this year. It's going to be some of the worst media you'll ever listen to

 

[FB19]

Last year Brisbane went into the draft with - 34, 35, 36, 38, 55

Once the draft opened they made a couple of live trades using future picks to have - 34, 36, 38, 40, 41, 50, 52, 63

They matched the Ashcroft bid at 2 with 5 picks (34, 36, 38, 40, 41). This moved their later picks up the draft order and increased their value.

They then matched the Fletcher bid at 12 with 3 picks that had moved up 41, 47, 49.


The lesson from this is that the more picks you use to match a bid, the more you increase the value of your later picks for later bids and the easier it is to find the points you need. As GC have three first round academy players, they will look to exploit this more than we have seen before.

Rogers is likely to be the forth first round player to be bid on. The picks used for him will have come in 8-10 spots. He could be claimed with four picks that start the draft in the sixties and worth only a few hundred points.

For this reason, I think GC will live trade pick 4 to club who brings a combination of the best F1 and the most third and forth round picks. And they will load up on future picks before the draft to use to live trade for mass picks when the draft opens. The teams they deal with will be those who have the list positions to bring in the junk picks.

Spot on finally someone who gets it. First live trade of the night. Only slight issue is the best club to get junk picks from is the suns themselves and obviously you can’t trade those picks back to them. Going to be interesting to see how many points they accumulate in the trade period to see how much if any help they need this year, then who they rate as the best f1 (who are prepared to trade it) which ultimately clinches the deal.

 

[rabidcrow]

Only way Adelaide do it is with a big overpay

I can’t see who or what they want myself at that pick 5 area

Whoever gets 4 will be a big overpay. I would imagine Adelaide would want McKercher

However I don’t think any of the GC pick trading stuff will get serious until people know what gifts the AFL will give North

If North get McKay pick at 3 and Sanders for nothing then it will interesting to see which players are targeted up the board




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[FB19]

Whoever gets 4 will be a big overpay. I would imagine Adelaide would want McKercher

However I don’t think any of the GC pick trading stuff will get serious until people know what gifts the AFL will give North

If North get McKay pick at 3 and Sanders for nothing then it will interesting to see which players are targeted up the board




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

McKercher for sure midfield is their weak spot he adds that explosiveness that would complement the others perfectly. More likely to stay in 5 years with a side who are contending as crows trajectory would indicate

 

[perplexed]

Spot on finally someone who gets it. First live trade of the night. Only slight issue is the best club to get junk picks from is the suns themselves and obviously you can’t trade those picks back to them. Going to be interesting to see how many points they accumulate in the trade period to see how much if any help they need this year, then who they rate as the best f1 (who are prepared to trade it) which ultimately clinches the deal.

They have all the picks their list spots allow them already. Before the draft they just bring in future picks for anyone they trade out and try and pre-arrange deals. I'd like North to get in on the action but you need lots of list spots to get a good deal and we always seem to max out our list so are starting behind everyone else.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The more I think about this the more logic their is in Gold Coast simply trading down to pick 2 and giving North a free F1 as a gift for doing so.

Talk to North, agree not to take McKercher who they want and trade pick 2 for pick 4 + F1st. Use Pick 2 for Duursma. Trade Hollands, Sharp and Chol for the points you need

North get a free 1st rounder, Gold Coast effectively turn future 1st rounder + crappy players into pick 2

Win/Win and the rest of the league go crying into the sunset

 

[rabidcrow]

McKercher for sure midfield is their weak spot he adds that explosiveness that would complement the others perfectly. More likely to stay in 5 years with a side who are contending as crows trajectory would indicate

Wishful thinking but if Adelaide got 4 - could 4,9 and McAdam tempt West Coast? Obviously North could blow that out of the water and maybe the Hawks
Probably about all though

 

[FB19]

They have all the picks their list spots allow them already. Before the draft they just bring in future picks for anyone they trade out and try and pre-arrange deals. I'd like North to get in on the action but you need lots of list spots to get a good deal and we always seem to max out our list so are starting behind everyone else.

Surely there’s a lot of clogging. I don’t know your list that well but in a cursory glance how accurate would this be?
Retired ziebell cunnington hall
Traded mckay
Delist Mahoney howe bonar edwards
Maybe delist greenwood turner spicer young Dawson (last 2 might stay due to kpd issues)

 

[FB19]

Wishful thinking but if Adelaide got 4 - could 4,9 and McAdam tempt West Coast? Obviously North could blow that out of the water and maybe the Hawks
Probably about all though

For eagles to trade down they need Curtin and north loom large that’s the issue. If they could guarantee they get him at 4 they might.

 

[perplexed]

Surely there’s a lot of clogging. I don’t know your list that well but in a cursory glance how accurate would this be?
Retired ziebell cunnington hall
Traded mckay
Delist Mahoney howe bonar edwards
Maybe delist greenwood turner spicer young Dawson (last 2 might stay due to kpd issues)

That list is about right. There'll be more, though some of those guys are rookies, and Greenwood already has a contract. But we'll be delisting or trading out 9-11 players from the primary list but probably bringing in 3 or 4 as well. We will likely have room for 2-3 junk picks.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

The more I think about this the more logic their is in Gold Coast simply trading down to pick 2 and giving North a free F1 as a gift for doing so.

Talk to North, agree not to take McKercher who they want and trade pick 2 for pick 4 + F1st. Use Pick 2 for Duursma. Trade Hollands, Sharp and Chol for the points you need

North get a free 1st rounder, Gold Coast effectively turn future 1st rounder + crappy players into pick 2

Win/Win and the rest of the league go crying into the sunset

Surely North want Curtin. They don't need another mid. If the Suns had pick 2 they would probably take Curtin, as they too have plenty of promising young midfielders (and will get another this year in Rogers, and another next year in Lombard).

The biggest issue with drafting another player is that makes it 4 first round players this year, that will need to be well paid in a few years, creating more of a salary cap issue. Then you get in a never-ending cycle of losing players before they peak so what was the point of drafting them.

 

[perplexed]

Surely North want Curtin. They don't need another mid. If the Suns had pick 2 they would probably take Curtin, as they too have plenty of promising young midfielders (and will get another this year in Rogers, and another next year in Lombard).

The biggest issue with drafting another player is that makes it 4 first round players this year, that will need to be well paid in a few years, creating more of a salary cap issue. Then you get in a never-ending cycle of losing players before they peak so what was the point of drafting them.

We definitely need talls, and I think we would want Curtin. But we may prefer to trade down and take O'Sullivan, who knows? We never pick the players I expect. Trading up at least guarantees you a pick at the top of a draft. If you trade for an F1 it could end up anywhere in the first round.

 

[Keystone agony]

Youd think Suns offer Pick 4 and F1 to North for Pick 2, 39, 53, 59

Whether North accept that or not

If they can go
KPD
KPF
RUCK
MID

Thats huge

 

[FB19]

Youd think Suns offer Pick 4 and F1 to North for Pick 2, 39, 53, 59

Whether North accept that or not

If they can go
KPD
KPF
RUCK
MID

Thats huge

I think the suns would want to spread out their early picks from a salary cap perspective as well. I think they would be looking to add an f1 more than another player on top of the academy 3 this year. Also whilst unlikely no guarantee eagles don’t bid on Walter at 1 it takes the pressure off Reid and they have loads of money now they kept Simpson so could easily hand him the $10k he would miss as #1 pick.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Surely North want Curtin. They don't need another mid. If the Suns had pick 2 they would probably take Curtin, as they too have plenty of promising young midfielders (and will get another this year in Rogers, and another next year in Lombard).

The biggest issue with drafting another player is that makes it 4 first round players this year, that will need to be well paid in a few years, creating more of a salary cap issue. Then you get in a never-ending cycle of losing players before they peak so what was the point of drafting them.

Either way really. Gold Coast are simply giving North 1st crack still by agreeing to not take Daniel Curtin and then take McKercher instead for example. North can then take Curtin. Hawks may then take Duursma which leaves Watson to North (a need for them anyway). After all that they then have a extra first rounder for basically what is dropping down 1 spot in the draft

In the scenario above you somply give Jed Walters a early contract extension and move things around so all 4 dont come off contract at once. Think keeping the 3 locals wont be too hard

Seems a good deal for both

 

[Keystone agony]

I think the suns would want to spread out their early picks from a salary cap perspective as well. I think they would be looking to add an f1 more than another player on top of the academy 3 this year. Also whilst unlikely no guarantee eagles don’t bid on Walter at 1 it takes the pressure off Reid and they have loads of money now they kept Simpson so could easily hand him the $10k he would miss as #1 pick.

I dont really think salary cap comes into their thinking

 

[hawkinoz]

Last year Brisbane went into the draft with - 34, 35, 36, 38, 55

Once the draft opened they made a couple of live trades using future picks to have - 34, 36, 38, 40, 41, 50, 52, 63

They matched the Ashcroft bid at 2 with 5 picks (34, 36, 38, 40, 41). This moved their later picks up the draft order and increased their value.

They then matched the Fletcher bid at 12 with 3 picks that had moved up 41, 47, 49.


The lesson from this is that the more picks you use to match a bid, the more you increase the value of your later picks for later bids and the easier it is to find the points you need. As GC have three first round academy players, they will look to exploit this more than we have seen before.

Rogers is likely to be the forth first round player to be bid on. The picks used for him will have come in 8-10 spots. He could be claimed with four picks that start the draft in the sixties and worth only a few hundred points.

For this reason, I think GC will live trade pick 4 to club who brings a combination of the best F1 and the most third and forth round picks. And they will load up on future picks before the draft to use to live trade for mass picks when the draft opens. The teams they deal with will be those who have the list positions to bring in the junk picks.

That text seems familiar.. looks like something I wrote 3 weeks back.

you miss 2 key points. Suns are the ones holding most of the junk picks which they will lose if they don't have list spot open.

if they trade it to someone, it can't be traded back to them by the same club.

PS : Dogs also hold junk picks which they expect to move up Suns have used all their academy bids

 

[perplexed]

That text seems familiar.. looks like something I wrote 3 weeks back.

you miss 2 key points. Suns are the ones holding most of the junk picks which they will lose if they don't have list spot open.

if they trade it to someone, it can't be traded back to them by the same club.

PS : Dogs also hold junk picks which they expect to move up Suns have used all their academy bids

The key to that is not trading any picks until after the player trade period is over. And if they trade out players bring in future picks or 1st and 2nd round picks. They will then know who holds multiple 3rds and wants to move up the order or out of the draft.

 

[Ash1337]

It's likely Gold Coast will go into the draft with 8 list spots. For that I can see a couple redrafted. I'm going to calculate this with 4 traded away and 2 future 1sts come in. Suns without 4 leaves 28, 31, 42, 47, 56, 60, 65, 69 at 2473 just a bit over a bid 1 pick with the discount. Suns are prepared to trade Sharp, Hollands & maybe Chol. I can see sharp goto freo for around 40. Hollands pick in the 20s. and chol a late 3rd. Though I can see Hardwick keeping Chol because he'll want him to take over witts and knows what he'll get out him.

If Hollands goes to adelaide for 23. Trade 28 & 69 to Swans for 41 & 49. Trade 23 & 60 to Eagles for 35 & 39 Gold now have 31 35 39 40 41 42 47 49 56 65. which is enough to bid on 2 walters at 2 and Read at 4. Really they only need 7 lists spots for the worst case scenario.

 

[chopflop]

If no bid on Walter at one or two, I'm expecting GCS to try and get ahead of the bid and take x4 top talents

 

[Keystone agony]

Gold Coast need to

Trade
J.Sharp
C.Burgess

Delist/Re Rookie
Casboult
Sexton
T.Berry
N.Holman

To have 8 spots available for picks

Picks 5, 28, 31, 42, 47, 56, 60, 65 = 4302 Points

Meaning Sharp and Burgess will likely go for point upgrades

Trade 1:
Suns In: Pick 40, 52 and 58
Suns Out: J.Sharp, 56, 60 and 65

Freo In: J.Sharp, 56, 60 and 65
Freo Out: Pick 40, 52, 58

Suns Points = 4717 Points

Trade 2:
GC Suns In: Pick 44
GC Suns out: Burgess, Pick 58

Rich In: Burgess and Pick 58
Rich Out: Pick 44

Suns Points = 4909 Points

Trade 3:
Suns In: F1(Hawks) and 29
Suns Out: Pick 5, 52, 58

Hawks In: Pick 5, 52, 58
Hawks Out: F1 and Pick 29

Suns Points = 3268 Points (Pick 28, 29, 31, 40, 42, 44, 47)
Hawks: Pick 4, 5 and 718 Points


Then i think theyll take that into the draft and then live trade picks 28, 29 and 31 for multiple later picks

 

[Keystone agony]

If no bid on Walter at one or two, I'm expecting GCS to try and get ahead of the bid and take x4 top talents

Bids at 3,9 and 12 = 3977 points needed

What would North accept at pick 3

Is Pick 5 and an F2 enough? Probably Not