Club Focus Gold Coast SUNS 2023

[Chris25]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

Footywire says: "While we make every effort to keep up to date with player contracts, it is likely that our data may at times be out of date, incomplete or inaccurate. If you find any player contracts that need updating, please let us know using our brand new contract submission form."

 

[Barrybran]

Why would the Suns be in a rush to trade this pick out?

It'll be eaten up matching Walter

 

[Caligo]

It'll be eaten up matching Walter

They can wait to trade during the draft though. Big benefits in terms of list caps.

 

[perplexed]

It'll be eaten up matching Walter

Of course. But they have until the draft to trade it. Or even live trade it. Teams are still being awarded FA compo, Adelaide just got end of first for Doodee that they could chuck in. Surely you at least wait until teams know their full hands and you've heard all offers.

 

[Young_Guns]

Why would the Suns be in a rush to trade this pick out?

Sounds like Cameron wanted the 10 and 17 available ASAP to continue on trading and storing points over the next week.

We’ve got until literally the moment we are on the clock though to move picks so who knows what he’s up to.

 

[perplexed]

Sounds like Cameron wanted the 10 and 17 available ASAP to continue on trading and storing points over the next week.

We’ve got until literally the moment we are on the clock though to move picks so who knows what he’s up to.

Unless they are using those picks on players, it makes no sense.

 

[Young_Guns]

Unless they are using those picks on players, it makes no sense.

Welcome to the Craig Cameron show.

Seriously though, it seems like a decent deal for us for once so lock it in before they get a chance to overthink it I say.

 

[Giant Strides]

Unless they are using those picks on players, it makes no sense.

Suns currently have 9 picks that have points, 1 x 1R, 2 x 2R, 3 x 3R, 3 x 4R. Depending on what AFL House does with their extra rookie list positions, given the rule that they have to have the list spots available to match picks, they are probably overloaded for picks. And the picks they don't want are later picks - 3rd & 4th round - that are worth less.

In that regards, Dogs' situation gives them the perfect trading partner. Suns get a future first rounder to defray their 2024 academy picks, plus 2 x first rounders this year (that are worth a hell of a lot more than the third rounder picks). They will on-sell those first round picks for extra points - but they'll likely do those on the night because first rounders work better for them in matching the list spots. Think of those picks being like a battery, storing value for Suns.

No other club has the 3 x first round pick hand that Dogs have at the moment. Sure, they could wait and see if trades change that (e.g. if Clayton Oliver was traded to Crows, Melbourne would have had a pretty sweet hand), but clearly Craig Cameron is happy with that value and just wants to make it happen.

It's a good strategy for Suns.

 

[perplexed]

Suns currently have 9 picks that have points, 1 x 1R, 2 x 2R, 3 x 3R, 3 x 4R. Depending on what AFL House does with their extra rookie list positions, given the rule that they have to have the list spots available to match picks, they are probably overloaded for picks. And the picks they don't want are later picks - 3rd & 4th round - that are worth less.

In that regards, Dogs' situation gives them the perfect trading partner. Suns get a future first rounder to defray their 2024 academy picks, plus 2 x first rounders this year (that are worth a hell of a lot more than the third rounder picks). They will on-sell those first round picks for extra points - but they'll likely do those on the night because first rounders work better for them in matching the list spots. Think of those picks being like a battery, storing value for Suns.

No other club has the 3 x first round pick hand that Dogs have at the moment. Sure, they could wait and see if trades change that (e.g. if Clayton Oliver was traded to Crows, Melbourne would have had a pretty sweet hand), but clearly Craig Cameron is happy with that value and just wants to make it happen.

It's a good strategy for Suns.

I think you have this a bit backwards, but GC might too. 17 might go for points after splitting down in a live trade, but 10 should get them another mid F1 or, at worst, our two future assistance picks.

They should want to keep those third round picks and as many fourths as their list positions allow, as they should match with only third and fourth round picks (about 12 or 13 of them). They already have half of what they need. The rest will be live traded in.

 

[Jirik13]

Why would the Suns be in a rush to trade this pick out?

Trade-on picks 10 and 17 for overs.

 

[Giant Strides]

They should want to keep those third round picks and as many fourths as their list positions allow, as they should match with only third and fourth round picks (about 12 or 13 of them). They already have half of what they need. The rest will be live traded in.

They don't have enough list vacancies to carry that many third and fourth round picks! They'd have to delist a third of their squad to carry 12 or 13 vacancies. That's the whole point!

 

[Jirik13]

Cameron mentioned today that Suns will go to draft with probably 6-7 list spots.

 

[Shadow89]

Lol told ya North peeps, you were never getting that Pick 4.

 

[Giant Strides]

Cameron mentioned today that Suns will go to draft with probably 6-7 list spots.

Yes, based on 38 spots (maximum available), but potentially to only fill 36 (minimum required), so 4 to 5 actually to fill.

4 x Suns Academy kids (Walter, Read, Rogers & Graham) and maybe one late selection (any lesser ranked Suns academy kids? - either that or a late need/desire). Pretty straight forward this year for Suns list management.

Cutting any more players than that is self-defeating. Not least of which, you wouldn't want to expose yourself to a potential Greenwood situation again.

 

[Jirik13]

Yes, based on 38 spots (maximum available), but potentially to only fill 36 (minimum required), so 4 to 5 actually to fill.

4 x Suns Academy kids (Walter, Read, Rogers & Graham) and maybe one late selection (any lesser ranked Suns academy kids? - either that or a late need/desire). Pretty straight forward this year for Suns list management.

Cutting any more players than that is self-defeating. Not least of which, you wouldn't want to expose yourself to a potential Greenwood situation again.

Greenwood was blessing. Haha. Happy to do the same with Macpherson, Sexton, Berry.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

They don't have enough list vacancies to carry that many third and fourth round picks! They'd have to delist a third of their squad to carry 12 or 13 vacancies. That's the whole point!

If the trades are done after draft starts there is no list spot requirement. There is always a loophole with AFL.

The Suns could for example have pre-arranged trades ready to go before WC call Harley Reids name. Trade 10 and 17 to whoever for multiple picks. Then trade those picks for even more points. They could end up with 20, it doesn't matter once the draft starts.

 

[perplexed]

They don't have enough list vacancies to carry that many third and fourth round picks! They'd have to delist a third of their squad to carry 12 or 13 vacancies. That's the whole point!

They should have list positions to take in six or seven and live trade in the rest. They just do the same thing as Brisbane did last year. The more picks you use to match the early bids, the more you increase the value of your later picks. By trading out third rounders they have shot themselves in the foot because these picks can't be traded back in. Basically, Cameron is an idiot.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

They should have list positions to take in six or seven and live trade in the rest. They just do the same thing as Brisbane did last year. The more picks you use to match the early bids, the more you increase the value of your later bids. By trading out third rounders they have shot themselves in the foot because these picks can't be traded back in. Basically, Cameron is an idiot.

Probably, but in this case he will have no issue finding more late picks if he wants. There will be enough teams happy to swap a 2nd round pick for points.

There will also be picks from Hollands and Chol to use too.

 

[perplexed]

Probably, but in this case he will have no issue finding more late picks if he wants. There will be enough teams happy to swap a 2nd round pick for points.

There will also be picks from Hollands and Chol to use too.

Oh, I don't think GC will have any trouble matching, that was always going to be a doddle. This has always been about leaving themselves with the best possible future hand. The best way to do this is to match with as many junk picks as possible.

I suspect that all the gain from WB overpaying in this trade will be undermined by the trading out of the third round picks that they ultimately want to match. And by going so early, their options for live trades may be reduced as those third round picks get mixed into the hands of teams they want to trade with. Basically, they now need to do more trades than otherwise and have reduced the number of picks available for them to use.

 

[Giant Strides]

If the trades are done after draft starts there is no list sport requirement. There is always a loophole with AFL.

The Suns could for example have pre-arranged trades ready to go before WC call Harley Reids name. Trade 10 and 17 to whoever for multiple picks. Then trade those picks for even more points. They could end up with 20, it doesn't matter once the draft starts.

Yes, I understand that.

I don't believe that you can trade before the first pick/bid, so with Walter likely to be #2, there's only 10-15 minutes on the clock from the start of ND to arrange the sale of existing picks. Even if pre-arranged, there would be a risk in trying to sell #2, and then on-sell the resulting picks. I think Suns have played this safe: a decent bounty for #4 (no risk that Dogs look to go elsewhere if Suns don't trade #4 in this period), and then they'll have their trades for #10, #17 and their second round picks ready to go on the night. They'll likely have 8 to 10 third/fourth round picks to match with (or even some future pick(s) if they've got enough that they think covers likely bid positions) in the end result.

The current bounty from the trade ranges between +1200 (if Dogs finish 2024 in 8th spot) to 791 points (if Dogs win the flag). [Less if there's FA compo picks added in.]

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Yes, I understand that.

I don't believe that you can trade before the first pick/bid, so with Walter likely to be #2, there's only 10-15 minutes on the clock from the start of ND to arrange the sale of existing picks. Even if pre-arranged, there would be a risk in trying to sell #2, and then on-sell the resulting picks. I think Suns have played this safe: a decent bounty for #4 (no risk that Dogs look to go elsewhere if Suns don't trade #4 in this period), and then they'll have their trades for #10, #17 and their second round picks ready to go on the night. They'll likely have 8 to 10 third/fourth round picks to match with (or even some future pick(s) if they've got enough that they think covers likely bid positions) in the end result.

The current bounty from the trade ranges between +1200 (if Dogs finish 2024 in 8th spot) to 791 points (if Dogs win the flag). [Less if there's FA compo picks added in.]

I'd expect the Suns to go hard for an A-grader next year, so the points from the Dogs pick probably isn't that important. Having several first round picks (even higher ones) will help get deals done.

Probably only have one high academy bid to match as well.

 

[perplexed]

Yes, I understand that.

I don't believe that you can trade before the first pick/bid, so with Walter likely to be #2, there's only 10-15 minutes on the clock from the start of ND to arrange the sale of existing picks. Even if pre-arranged, there would be a risk in trying to sell #2, and then on-sell the resulting picks. I think Suns have played this safe: a decent bounty for #4 (no risk that Dogs look to go elsewhere if Suns don't trade #4 in this period), and then they'll have their trades for #10, #17 and their second round picks ready to go on the night. They'll likely have 8 to 10 third/fourth round picks to match with (or even some future pick(s) if they've got enough that they think covers likely bid positions) in the end result.

The current bounty from the trade ranges between +1200 (if Dogs finish 2024 in 8th spot) to 791 points (if Dogs win the flag). [Less if there's FA compo picks added in.]

These live pick trades would all be pre-arranged. Brisbane managed two trades last year before matching Ashcroft at 2. Can't see why GC couldn't do exactly the same thing.

 

[Giant Strides]

I'd expect the Suns to go hard for an A-grader next year, so the points from the Dogs pick probably isn't that important. Having several first round picks (even higher ones) will help get deals done.

Again, I agree the important point is having the future first round pick, not the points.

But if the argument is "could do better a different way", then points is how you would compare deals.

Alternatively, view it as: Suns traded #s 4, 46 & 51 for close to the same points in 2023 draft but via two picks (saving a list spot) PLUS a future first rounder.

I view that deal as quite a smart way to go about it: I really don't see the criticism being doled out as valid.

 

[perplexed]

Again, I agree the important point is having the future first round pick, not the points.

But if the argument is "could do better a different way", then points is how you would compare deals.

Alternatively, view it as: Suns traded #s 4, 46 & 51 for close to the same points in 2023 draft but via two picks (saving list spots) PLUS a future first rounder.

I view that deal as quite a smart way to go about it: I really don't see the criticism being doled out as valid.

If comes down to how you ultimately plan to match the bids. You want to do this with the least resources possible, and leave yourself with the best possible hand for next year. By using a pile of third and fourth round picks is easily the most efficient way to go about this, which is why everyone does it this way. The advantages to GC are greater this year than for any team in the past because they are the first team to have three first round players to match. The more picks used to match the early bids, the more you increase the value of your later picks and fewer points you need to start with to match the same bids.

In the trade today, GC traded out picks that were ideal for matching bids for picks that aren't. It was pretty dumb. The trade was even dumber from WB, but that is a different story.

 

[Giant Strides]

In the trade today, GC traded out picks that were ideal for matching bids for picks that aren't. It was pretty dumb.

This will be my last response as otherwise it will clog this thread, but I strongly disagree. On the surface, you are correct about using more/later picks. But the list spot issue causes a problem. Losing their current 3rd round picks was a necessary step to play ball with Dogs and get a mutually agreeable trade. Suns will subsequently on-trade those two first round picks for a bunch more second and third round picks (and possibly something else in the future). It was a smart play.

 

[perplexed]

This will be my last response as otherwise it will clog this thread, but I strongly disagree. On the surface, you are correct about using more/later picks. But the list spot issue causes a problem. Losing their current 3rd round picks was a necessary step to play ball with Dogs and get a mutually agreeable trade. Suns will subsequently on-trade those two first round picks for a bunch more second and third round picks (and possibly something else in the future). It was a smart play.

The success of their approach can be judged by what future hand they are left with. To me, anything less than their F1 plus either a bottom four F1 or two mid table F1's (like the Dog's one) is a failure.