Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[sr36]

I’ve already told you that it’s apparent that you have no idea what our strategy was/is.
It was never “all kids at the draft, no trades”.

You keep trying to redefine the strategy with throwaway lines like “slash and burn”.

The footy dept made the call to get more young talent on the list in 2021 and start to bring them through together. They didn’t make some sort of statement that all players over 28 were no longer required, they simply made the decision that if a mutually acceptable outcome was available to said players that they’d present it and to the players and let them have the final say.
GWS offered up first round picks to Hawthorn in order to get both Breust and Wingard, Hawthorn said “sure, you can ask the question of them”, both said no thanks.
If you think I’m making this up, Jon Ralph and others reported as much at the time.
By the end of 2022 the footy dept made a decision that the midfield needed to grow together and that Tom was holding it back. JOM wasn’t someone we really wanted to lose, but he got drunk at Cogs wedding and told Giants he was open to a move there(which Freo ultimately jumped into once they got wind of it).

We never had the tall depth even back then, so pretending like adding Chol last year is some backflip, when we’d simply identified that Kosi wasn’t the answer is bogus.

If you go look at the Hawthorn crows and north thread, you’ll find that the story for the last three years has been the same. Hawthorn don’t have the tall talent, they have kids with some potential only.
To pretend like adding Chol and trying to find help for Sicily is some sort of backflip from moving on $800K midfielders is simply ridiculous.

So the only two over 28s that Hawthorn didn't get rid of at the end of 2022 were the 2 that didn't accept trades - and Amon was your only experienced addition.

Just clearing the decks of mids, to give your young mids an opportunity. We'll pretend that you didn't also try to clear the decks of your small forwards as well - who was that for? You were short on talls, so assumedly some serious targetting of talls then ... Oh no, you cleared out the one of them who was over 28 as well.

Pretty clear that the Hawks strategy was to clear out their old players for a significant rebuild. And have since decided they've got the midfield to take them forward, so added young flankers and tried to add FA talls, before settling for Chol and Gunston. You were loading up for a tilt at finals with the club talking no limits and the players talking finals.

Looks to be a serious over-estimation of the list to me. But alls well.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

So the only two over 28s that Hawthorn didn't get rid of at the end of 2022 were the 2 that didn't accept trades - and Amon was your only experienced addition.

Just clearing the decks of mids, to give your young mids an opportunity. We'll pretend that you didn't also try to clear the decks of your small forwards as well - who was that for? You were short on talls, so assumedly some serious targetting of talls then ... Oh no, you cleared out the one of them who was over 28 as well.

Pretty clear that the Hawks strategy was to clear out their old players for a significant rebuild. And have since decided they've got the midfield to take them forward, so added young flankers and tried to add FA talls, before settling for Chol and Gunston. You were loading up for a tilt at finals with the club talking no limits and the players talking finals.

Looks to be a serious over-estimation of the list to me. But alls well.

This is crap and I think you know it.

Hawthorn wanted to return to the draft, so they did. They were open to offers for players to facilitate that.

They didn’t want to “clear out players over 28”, they simply made the decision that if there were offers they’d look at them, because a team that finished bottom 4 has to look at all the options to build a list and regenerate the list.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

So the only two over 28s that Hawthorn didn't get rid of at the end of 2022 were the 2 that didn't accept trades - and Amon was your only experienced addition.

Just clearing the decks of mids, to give your young mids an opportunity. We'll pretend that you didn't also try to clear the decks of your small forwards as well - who was that for? You were short on talls, so assumedly some serious targetting of talls then ... Oh no, you cleared out the one of them who was over 28 as well.

Pretty clear that the Hawks strategy was to clear out their old players for a significant rebuild. And have since decided they've got the midfield to take them forward, so added young flankers and tried to add FA talls, before settling for Chol and Gunston. You were loading up for a tilt at finals with the club talking no limits and the players talking finals.

Looks to be a serious over-estimation of the list to me. But alls well.

You do realise we didn't clear out Gunston - we actually repeatedly tried to get him to stay - but he exercised his free agency rights following his father's death. We knew the hole we had up forward (with only an often injured Lewis) - so much so we brought a mature aged Fergus Greene in from the VFL to replace him.

We also brought in multiple mature aged key position players/forwards through the mid season draft.

If you follow Hawthorn at all - you'd see the path over the last 2 season has been consistent - trying to attract key position players, especially up forward (young is obviously preferable but we need whatever we can get) whereas we have been open to trading veterans in areas of surplus (mids, flankers and smalls in general).

(Some here are even laughably using Ginnivan as an example of drafting older players - he's 21 and hasn't yet played 50 games - he's absolutely an example of joining the youth focussed rebuild )

 

[boncer34]

You do realise we didn't clear out Gunston - we actually repeatedly tried to get him to stay - but he exercised his free agency rights following his father's death. We knew the hole we had up forward (with only an often injured Lewis) - so much so we brought a mature aged Fergus Greene in from the VFL to replace him.

We also brought in multiple mature aged key position players/forwards through the mid season draft.

If you follow Hawthorn at all - you'd see the path over the last 2 season has been consistent - trying to attract key position players, especially up forward (young is obviously preferable but we need whatever we can get) whereas we have been open to trading veterans in areas of surplus (mids, flankers and smalls in general).

(Some here are even laughably using Ginnivan as an example of drafting older players - he's 21 and hasn't yet played 50 games - he's absolutely an example of joining the youth focussed rebuild )

Great decision which was inexplicably reversed.

Mitchell needs to focus on the club not his mates.

 

[SSSSSS]

Great decision which was inexplicably reversed.

Mitchell needs to focus on the club not his mates.

Gunston coming back as steak knives is not going to make or break our rebuild lol.

 

[sr36]

You do realise we didn't clear out Gunston - we actually repeatedly tried to get him to stay - but he exercised his free agency rights following his father's death. We knew the hole we had up forward (with only an often injured Lewis) - so much so we brought a mature aged Fergus Greene in from the VFL to replace him.

We also brought in multiple mature aged key position players/forwards through the mid season draft.

If you follow Hawthorn at all - you'd see the path over the last 2 season has been consistent - trying to attract key position players, especially up forward (young is obviously preferable but we need whatever we can get) whereas we have been open to trading veterans in areas of surplus (mids, flankers and smalls in general).

(Some here are even laughably using Ginnivan as an example of drafting older players - he's 21 and hasn't yet played 50 games - he's absolutely an example of joining the youth focussed rebuild )

Surplus of the bolded at the beginning of 2022?

You went full rebuild. You felt you had the mids in place after a couple had good years and the team had a better than expected second half of the year and looked for flankers and talls this year. I don't understand why that has unsettled so many - it's what has occurred. The only thing that is debatable is whether it was a good or bad decision. Looks like a shocker to me.

 

[boncer34]

Gunston coming back as steak knives is not going to make or break our rebuild lol.

Fully agree.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Fully agree.

He has been really helpful on the track. Has taken Calsher Dear under his wing in preseason and at training. Calsher's form at VFL level could in part be attributed to Gunners. He will be left out of the side if we feel he is not contributing to the side. Gunston is fully aware of where he and the club are at. No one is blindsided by him or the reason for getting him across.

 

[peetoo]

Lol we were linked to about half a dozen players by the media and continually are.

Idk how substantiated the rumours are but seems like every player agent and their dog has been trying to chase that Hawthorn bag.

It’s known that hawks have big salary cap spac Hence get quoted in rumours

 

[boncer34]

He has been really helpful on the track. Has taken Calsher Dear under his wing in preseason and at training. Calsher's form at VFL level could in part be attributed to Gunners. He will be left out of the side if we feel he is not contributing to the side. Gunston is fully aware of where he and the club are at. No one is blindsided by him or the reason for getting him across.

He could do all of that without needing to be on the list.

Instead Sam made room for him, played him, dropped him when he had no other choice, bought him back against the worst team in the comp to help cover his deficiencies and then watched him be exposed against Sydney.

Bizarre move by a coach to blindly look after his mate.

Gunston is not an AFL player anymore largely due to his body, on sheer talent and muscle memory you might get 3 or 4 good games from him by the years end. But is that enough to cut younger forwards to create a space for him?


Not for me.

 

[peetoo]

He has been really helpful on the track. Has taken Calsher Dear under his wing in preseason and at training. Calsher's form at VFL level could in part be attributed to Gunners. He will be left out of the side if we feel he is not contributing to the side. Gunston is fully aware of where he and the club are at. No one is blindsided by him or the reason for getting him across

Gunston a coaching resource outside the soft cap
? Don’t tell anyone tho

 

[boncer34]

Gunston a coaching resource outside the soft cap
? Don’t tell anyone tho

I thought the players were under some sort of cap too.

 

[peetoo]

I thought the players were under some sort of cap too.

Really
? You are educating us all

 

[SSSSSS]

He could do all of that without needing to be on the list.

Instead Sam made room for him, played him, dropped him when he had no other choice, bought him back against the worst team in the comp to help cover his deficiencies and then watched him be exposed against Sydney.

Bizarre move by a coach to blindly look after his mate.

Gunston is not an AFL player anymore largely due to his body, on sheer talent and muscle memory you might get 3 or 4 good games from him by the years end. But is that enough to cut younger forwards to create a space for him?


Not for me.

Gunston coming over as steak knives is partly why we were able to extract a second rounder for an MSD selection in Ryan.

It's got nothing to do with Sam looking after his mates.

 

[boncer34]

Gunston coming over as steak knives is partly why we were able to extract a second rounder for an MSD selection in Ryan.

It's got nothing to do with Sam looking after his mates.

Yes. Brisbane gave you a 2nd rounder because Sam bought his mate back.

 

[sr36]

Gunston a coaching resource outside the soft cap
? Don’t tell anyone tho

I think that's a smart thing to do if you're a struggling young team. You can afford more development coaching. Port did it with Goldsack a few years ago

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I dont think they've cut too deep, they've only traded out a couple of senior players, I think they've whiffed on a couple of top 10 picks where you cant miss on any and rebuild quickly and havent hit massive quality down the order either outside Newcombe. Rebuilding is really hard once you have to start a list again, ask Brisbane from their threepeat, WC their run and watch the Tigers in the next few years. It's particularly hard when you dont have a F/S or Academy factory.

I feel Freo has actually drafted really well since 2016 arguably only completely missing on one top pick in Erasmus while finding later gems and we are still struggling to get out of the muck. You have to nail every single pick (particularly top ones) for like 6 years and they havent, combined with trying to top up for a final run between 2016 and 2018 and they dont have the talent to go anywhere yet.

It's also why Adelaide are struggling after drafting McAsey, Jones and McHenry (and possibly Thilthorpe and Pedlar but that's a different discussion)

 

[SSSSSS]

Yes. Brisbane gave you a 2nd rounder because Sam bought his mate back.

Brisbane gave away 2nd round pick for a 26 turning 27 year old exciting beanpole + clearing Gunston's 500k off the books for 2024.

We've got plenty of cap space and we needed to make the minimum payment. We extracted the best possible deal for us, Gunston gets to come home and Brisbane get more flexibility in their cap.

Seems like a win win for all?

 

[boncer34]

Brisbane gave away 2nd round pick for a 26 turning 27 year old exciting beanpole + clearing Gunston's 500k off the books for 2024.

We've got plenty of cap space and we needed to make the minimum payment. We extracted the best possible deal for us, Gunston gets to come home and Brisbane get more flexibility in their cap.

Seems like a win win for all?

Ah yes saving Brisbane from their much talked about salary cap crunch.

 

[peetoo]

Still pretty hopeful on our young f/s kpp draftees still quite raw but KPF is hitting the right note McCabe has been injured but other clubs had an eye on him in draft
Clearly not solid yet but minimal negatives so far

 

[smish]

I dont think they've cut too deep, they've only traded out a couple of senior players, I think they've whiffed on a couple of top 10 picks where you cant miss on any and rebuild quickly and havent hit massive quality down the order either outside Newcombe. Rebuilding is really hard once you have to start a list again, ask Brisbane from their threepeat, WC their run and watch the Tigers in the next few years. It's particularly hard when you dont have a F/S or Academy factory.

I feel Freo has actually drafted really well since 2016 arguably only completely missing on one top pick in Erasmus while finding later gems and we are still struggling to get out of the muck. You have to nail every single pick (particularly top ones) for like 6 years and they havent, combined with trying to top up for a final run between 2016 and 2018 and they dont have the talent to go anywhere yet.

It's also why Adelaide are struggling after drafting McAsey, Jones and McHenry (and possibly Thilthorpe and Pedlar but that's a different discussion)

This is a very taboo topic on the Hawks board in particular and I'll 100% get shot down for saying this here, but there have been some late season wins which have killed us.

We won the final game of the 2020 season where we jumped Sydney on the ladder and we missed out on L. McDonald, selecting DGB instead.

We won a couple late in 2021 we probably shouldn't have won based on exposed form and ended up costing us Callaghan, we got Ward instead.

The argument is that no win is meaningless and it's good for morale. Yes, it's good for morale, but reality is we're years later we're still 17th and no amount of morale can fixed that.
No, we shouldn't have tanked. Yes, tanking can destroy a club and we absolutely shouldn't have done that. I'm just pointing out how missing out on the point end of talent has put us in a compromised position.

Not saying they're bad players, jury's out on DGB and Ward has been sent to the twos to work on some stuff. Still, there's not one reasonable person that would say DGB/Ward is a better combo than McDonald/Callaghan.

Having said all this, this argument would be totally redundant if not for how badly compromised the draft is. We finished 3rd bottom last year, and should have got the player that went 3rd in the draft, which was Walter. We finished 4th bottom in 2020, we should have got the player that went 4th in the draft, which was McDonald. Makes sense no?

 

[Slysh]

Ah yes saving Brisbane from their much talked about salary cap crunch.

There doesn't have to be a crunch for it to make sense, he really holds almost no value to a contending team so off loading his salary makes sense.

Gunston is not taking a list spot from anyone valuable to our future and we have a stupid amount of cap space. I do not understand why some are so focused in on Gunston.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

This is a very taboo topic on the Hawks board in particular and I'll 100% get shot down for saying this here, but there have been some late season wins which have killed us.

We won the final game of the 2020 season where we jumped Sydney on the ladder and we missed out on L. McDonald, selecting DGB instead.

We won a couple late in 2021 we probably shouldn't have won based on exposed form and ended up costing us Callaghan, we got Ward instead.

The argument is that no win is meaningless and it's good for morale. Yes, it's good for morale, but reality is we're years later we're still 17th and no amount of morale can fixed that.
No, we shouldn't have tanked. Yes, tanking can destroy a club and we absolutely shouldn't have done that. I'm just pointing out how missing out on the point end of talent has put us in a compromised position.

Not saying they're bad players, jury's out on DGB and Ward has been sent to the twos to work on some stuff. Still, there's not one reasonable person that would say DGB/Ward is a better combo than McDonald/Callaghan.

Having said all this, this argument would be totally redundant if not for how badly compromised the draft is. We finished 3rd bottom last year, and should have got the player that went 3rd in the draft, which was Walter. We finished 4th bottom in 2020, we should have got the player that went 4th in the draft, which was McDonald. Makes sense no?

100% to all this though I'll argue DGB and Ward are bad players for where you want a top 10 pick to be (though that 2020 draft is an absolute stinker thanks to COVID, it's a miracle we got Chapman out of it).

We'll derail the thread but I would be all for making bids in the top 5 unable to be matched, with the growth in Northern states, NGAs and F/S now reaching a point where the bottom teams arent getting the assistance they are supposed to. It's completely ****ed and shown by North, yourselves and probably WC being stuck down there (though WC have probably gotten lucky Reid fell into their lap thanks to North). The only completely rebuilding team to get out of the bottom 8 in a while is Carlton who did the bulk of their rebuild before it all started getting absurdly compromised

 

[TheFourPillars]

He could do all of that without needing to be on the list.

Instead Sam made room for him, played him, dropped him when he had no other choice, bought him back against the worst team in the comp to help cover his deficiencies and then watched him be exposed against Sydney.

Bizarre move by a coach to blindly look after his mate.

Gunston is not an AFL player anymore largely due to his body, on sheer talent and muscle memory you might get 3 or 4 good games from him by the years end. But is that enough to cut younger forwards to create a space for him?


Not for me.

He had a couple of shots on goal that he missed but yes his role is on the ground similar to hodge's role at us and brisbane. We have a lot of players young and from other clubs. He knows the way we play. Its something i have seen him do first hand. He also helps from the bench and when he was sub. One of the higher iq footballers going around

 

[Footy Smarts]

This is a very taboo topic on the Hawks board in particular and I'll 100% get shot down for saying this here, but there have been some late season wins which have killed us.

We won the final game of the 2020 season where we jumped Sydney on the ladder and we missed out on L. McDonald, selecting DGB instead.

We won a couple late in 2021 we probably shouldn't have won based on exposed form and ended up costing us Callaghan, we got Ward instead.

The argument is that no win is meaningless and it's good for morale. Yes, it's good for morale, but reality is we're years later we're still 17th and no amount of morale can fixed that.
No, we shouldn't have tanked. Yes, tanking can destroy a club and we absolutely shouldn't have done that. I'm just pointing out how missing out on the point end of talent has put us in a compromised position.

Not saying they're bad players, jury's out on DGB and Ward has been sent to the twos to work on some stuff. Still, there's not one reasonable person that would say DGB/Ward is a better combo than McDonald/Callaghan.

Having said all this, this argument would be totally redundant if not for how badly compromised the draft is. We finished 3rd bottom last year, and should have got the player that went 3rd in the draft, which was Walter. We finished 4th bottom in 2020, we should have got the player that went 4th in the draft, which was McDonald. Makes sense no?

This is just finding excuses for what look like s**t picks. If you rated those players who's to say you wouldn't have taken them anyway? Or you wouldn't have developed Callaghan and McDonald?

Jye Amiss was taken the pick after Ward who looks a better prospect than McDonald anyway. Wanganeen-Milera was still on the board as another option.

If you didn't rate DGB you could've taken Perkins who you were interested in or live traded that pick for massive value.

Eg trade pick 6 to GWS for their future first and pick 18. Take Holmes with pick 18 in 2020, Amiss with your 2021 first and Darcy Wilmot with GWS' future 1st and you wouldn't care about missing out on McDonald or Callaghan.